Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27964. (Read 26711635 times)

Yes, I have learned at some expense. I have recouped my initial investment with enough profit to endure a prolonged bear market should it be necessary. The BTC I have in cold storage will have to be sufficient if an unexpected rally prevents me from adding to my holdings.

I think that your response was meant to be directed at another post.

I think it is quite possible bordering on probable that I am one of the incompetents I am referring to. It's not intended as an insult. It's just part of the theory.

The following is a quote from the article.

"conducted more than 10,000 transactions on the black market website, earning 385,000 BTC in the process."

This does not mean that he still had the 385k btc.  Is this gross or net?  did he spend any?  How many did the govt actually get their hands on?  The govt will use the biggest #s possible for the biggest PR effect.  

ETA: that is an avg of ~40 btc per transaction LOL

I was not saying anything about future repercussions - just begin to absorb the fact.

US goverment is in the possession of more than 5% world supply of bitcoins   Surprising. Scary. Not was bitcoin was suppossed to be ...

Perhaps that is why fed were so surprisingly friendly toward BTC? At least until they will sell?

Explanation

I doubt that they are going to sell or liquidate those coins in large quantities, unless they are assured to get close to retail or above retail for them.

Hopefully you have learned by your own words that it is NOT good to be overly leveraged in BTC b/c that could cause BTC to transfer from your hands to the hands of others at a loss to you.  You frequently claim that you are NOT one of those people who get taken advantage of in the investment world.. but you als o assert that you are engaging in heavily leveraged behaviors.. which could come back to bite you in the butt if you are NOT careful.. ... accordingly, your butt will get burnt if you overly leverage in bitcoin and you are NOT able to manipulate prices.

Yes exactly, AM has good cash flow and a good proportion of the coins fly to share holders. The new distribution = small change in information. But SR and GOX coins are another story.

Seems like the Wiklevos bros did NOT get GOXed.... at least, NOT directly. 

All of us bitcoin users or bitcoin user wann-a-bees were indirectly goxed to some extent.

I don't claim to be an expert in any of these various economic theories, but there seems to be some sense in what BJA is saying - apart from his having to feel some kind of irresistible urge to dish out insults regarding the competency and/or intelligence of regular people.

I do believe that the status quo wealthy will put up quite a bit of a battle in any redistribution of wealth attempts in order that redistribution of wealth is only minimum..

In other words the status quo wealthy use any tools at their disposal by hook or by crook to ensure that redistribution of wealth does NOT leave them hanging high and dry.  They may NOT be too successful with bitcoin b/c the train may leave some of them, but they are going to put up several obstacles along the way and secretly board at later stops.

Post of the month.

Every newjack should heed this advice if long-term success is your goal. Not just for btc, but overall investing.

bold emphasis mine

I don't think that the redistribution of a paltry 400,000 coins will "kill" bitoin's long term value.

just another bump in the road

(edit - ok "paltry" was a bad choice of words, what I should have said is "the redistribution of coins from the people that want to sell to the people that want to buy will not "kill" bitcoin. In fact, it is a good thing.")

Explanation

there will always be some sort of drop possibilty in the price. in reality even the usd could lose 50% of its value by tommarow morning and all hell would break lose. and if btc price did drop 50% i really think bitcoin would stay low and even crash. too many investers and not enough users.

It is certain that those "proceeds" that were sold were bitcoins?  Could they be euros, merchandise, etc.?

This. The amount of seized BTC that has  to be auctioned and dumped on the market is so high... At least 400K (GOX+Silk+others), if not more, probably sold well under $250 for each coin, ready to be dumped on the market at any point. Truth is, even a relatively small 20K dump could totally crash BTC's value to $50/coin.

I could literally wake up one day and see BTC's value drop 50%. This will kill BTC's  long term value, seriously scary stuff

Calm down.  They never said they had 385k -- that's his total gross.  That's ~$200 million in todays valuation.  If they had found that many, this arrest would be front page news.  He probably spent most of the coins or has them hidden away.  Since no specific numbers of impounded assets were mentioned, its possible that all they have (and sold) is his portion of the SR coins.  They can't sell those coins until they get a conviction, right?  Its not their coins until the conviction.  This guy pleading guilty freed up his SR coins...

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday April 29

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-29, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2684 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 443 USD





[ Plot legend ]

The data point from yesterday (Sunday Apr/27 19:00-19:50 UTC) was one of the worst on record: Huobi had little volume during the day, but traded heavily during the night (S = 0.0343, W practically zero).  Today's data point however was fairly good (S = 0.0037, W = 0.758).  Two choices for the trend seemed reasonable, the trivial "tomorrow like today" predictor (which would give 2715 CNY), or a straight line trend fitted by weighted least squares to the last four points (which would ignore yesterday's given its low weight).  I chose the latter, namely A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/25, A = 2836.60 and B = -38.22.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.06 CNY/USD. It was 6.05, 6.09, and 6.05 for the last three Slumber Times, skipping yesterday's.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-26, 22:21 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-04-27, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~21 hours later)

Foiled again by the treacherous Chinese. But I got the right digits, only in the wrong order:

Huobi's predicted price: 2876 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2678 CNY
Error: 198 CNY (~33 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 471 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 440 USD
Error: 31 USD
 
NOTE: "A rich man is nothing but a poor man with money." -- W. C. Fields

That's what Rpietila said.