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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24817. (Read 26718840 times)

legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Steady, she goes. This is gonna end up fucking nasty if we don't see any upside soon




Podyx:   I noticed that several of your recent posts have turned very doomy and gloomy.  Have you converted into a full-fledged bear or are you just talking your book? 

A couple of months ago you were talking about leveraging your total life savings to buy into BTC if prices were to drop, and NOW, you are talking doom and gloom.
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
It's gonna bounce extremely hard when we find our low, till then expect crashes to continue. A week or little more if it continues like this btc will be below 200. I guess the first miners are switching off now.


So you are predicting a 40% drop in the next week or so, after a 70% decline from the ATH? Good luck!

Yeah... Seems pretty unlikely to go below $200... and even seems like it would be increasingly difficult to go below $320 or $300 or $275 or $266.....

Never say never in bitcoinlandia, but I am thinking that $320 is about as low as we go this time around... going below $300, $275 or $266 would be increased levels of improbabilities... even though NOT impossible... fairly improbable.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
number of transactions just hit an all time high, first time we have been above last Decembers bubble peak....only this time is has got there from steady growth. Number of wallets used daily has been at an all time high for some time.....bitcoin continues to grow slowly and steadily.

But the total daily value of those transactions, in USD, has been pretty much the same since April, and is ~30% less than it was in Jan--Feb:
Estimated USD Transaction Volume

But, anyway, we STILL do not know how much of that traffic is "fake" (between addressed that belong to te same person; e.g. hotwallet/coldwallet flow, tumbling, deposit/withdrawal at exchanges, gambling sites and other "bitcoin banks"...)
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
Don't know if already posted, but the big and historical mining pool BTCGuild shuts down on government regulation:

Pretty big news...


http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2kwmhd/btcguild_shutting_down/


"it is a scary landscape to continue operating in"

If it leads to more people creating a larger p2p pool I'd be ok with this trend. mind you I dont know the whole stability/vulnerabilities of a p2p pools.

BTC Guild Shutting Down Likely Being Sold

Earlier today, a news post was made identifying that BTC Guild would be shutting down on January 31, 2015. This post is still available in its entirety on the Bitcointalk forum (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9395478).

Just hours after making this post, multiple parties have expressed strong interest in purchasing BTC Guild and keeping it running. As a result, the previously announced timeline for closure of operations has been cancelled, and the site will likely continue without interruption.




This was just updated on the BTC Guild website after it was clear that it is almost certain that BTC Guild will not be shutting its doors.  While I may be ending my watch over the pool in the coming months, it will continue.

from https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9397724
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
^

Jup. Turns out you're right.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
Who's there?
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
Don't know if already posted, but the big and historical mining pool BTCGuild shuts down on government regulation:

Pretty big news...


http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2kwmhd/btcguild_shutting_down/


"it is a scary landscape to continue operating in"
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1001
http://www.coindesk.com/australian-government-soon-hold-9-million-bitcoin-auction/

24518BTC for sale. Will Tim Draper take this chance to average down?

And if I remember correctly FBI still has around 100k from Ross, right? At this pace we are going to need a QE directly into bitcoin to pump the price.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
number of transactions just hit an all time high, first time we have been above last Decembers bubble peak....only this time is has got there from steady growth. Number of wallets used daily has been at an all time high for some time.....bitcoin continues to grow slowly and steadily.

Not sure were you're getting the new all time high from... the 7 day smoothed view on blockchain.info (no. of tx excluding popular addresses) still shows the current value slightly below the previous peak...



No. of unique addresses is already at a new high though:




Anyway, I agree with your observation.

I don't usually look for reasons for market states, but if I had to, I'd probably say the 2nd growth spurt of 2013 (i.e. the rally to 1200 USD) vastly outgrew the network size based price, which led to the protracted bear market we're in now.

Since May this year, on the other hand, network growth is picking up nicely, judging by the commonly used metrics, while price is in constant decline, i.e. the reverse of what happened in late 2013. Eventually, there's a good chance the gap between network size motivated price and actual price will be substantial enough to cause the next growth spurt, but I don't claim to know when that is going to happen exactly.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Moderator
sr. member
Activity: 541
Merit: 362
Rules not Rulers
number of transactions just hit an all time high, first time we have been above last Decembers bubble peak....only this time is has got there from steady growth. Number of wallets used daily has been at an all time high for some time.....bitcoin continues to grow slowly and steadily.
copper member
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1465
Clueless!
Yes I already took some profit of my short. I will probably reshort on any rally.

BTC is looking really week. I don't want to go long since it went down all of 2014.

It looks weak because of traders scum like you who destroy the market and dump on every person who dares to buy 2 coins.

well the classic bubble started at 150 usd last oct ...if btc is truly in a boom/bust cycle it is now cycling back to the mean of say about 150 usd

so the catch is ...is btc in a boom/bust cycle (ie it will act irrational in two different directions up and down) in other word will we have another

irrational boom cycle for no particular reason us mortals can figure out (typical market no idea wtf is going on)

or

is bitcoin in the old 'dead cat' spiral downward without a way up ...all the 'wags' on here claim

me I'm getting a refund likely in btc of around 6.3k ....it it hits my wallet I will likely not spend it.....simply let it ride

but yeah pucker factor is definitely in play here

my own thoughts are it will bounce off at around 200 to 150 upward ...because the minons (us) will think it is a great buy

whether it has 'legs' to stablize after all the FUD the gov't and press and such after that point ..i'm clueless

'take your bets gentleman'  in the black or red please...and spin the frigging wheel

legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1001
how much longer until we are not in a period of time considered critical?

When bitcoin breaks ATH and enters into another big bubble.
full member
Activity: 144
Merit: 100
Steady, she goes. This is gonna end up fucking nasty if we don't see any upside soon


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tm9FL8AaJA#t=31
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
shrooms "trader scum" who sell also bought once. You seem to forget this.

Some people buy to hodl, some buy to sell. I advise you to make peace with this reality.

I guess I should also make peace with your general hate spewing.

Sure, but don't give me that shit about the market looking weak. Yes of course it fucking looks weak. Everyone is afraid to buy because of these fucking traders just dumping on everyone all day long.
Pretty ironic don't you think? "The market looks weak so i dumped".

"Almost all the cookies are gone from the jar, better take one. Hey that's weird, now there are even less cookies".

Bitcoin traders aren't exactly the smartest people around, are they?
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
The average trader on Bitcointalk:

"The market looks really weak, i have no idea what's goin...oh shit hold on, the price went up, need to dump my coins asap!"
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1045
shrooms "trader scum" who sell also bought once. You seem to forget this.

Some people buy to hodl, some buy to sell. I advise you to make peace with this reality.

I guess I should also make peace with your general hate spewing.
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
Yes I already took some profit of my short. I will probably reshort on any rally.

BTC is looking really week. I don't want to go long since it went down all of 2014.

It looks weak because of traders scum like you who destroy the market and dump on every person who dares to buy 2 coins.
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