I used to think that BTC will experience at least one more bubble before it's final demise, but it doesn't look like it anymore.
I think that the fall of bitcoin will be caused mainly by one of it's biggest flaws - inefficient new coin creation. The bitcoin network has become too expensive to run, and it needs more and more new money to enter, just to sustain it's value. If not enough new money will enter, then mining will start to eat the dollar value of bitcoin. Some miners are claiming that they will temporary cover the losses and wait for better times to sell. Some of them outright lie to support the positive sentiment and some of them actually can cover their losses for a limited time. This also means that their coins will be accumulating together with their losses. This is only building up to an avalanche where the miners can't cover their losses anymore and they have to sell their coins to whatever the price that they can get. When this happens, then the amount of coins that will be thrown at the market will be large enough to destroy any trust that bitcoin still had left.
Cryptocurrencies will live on, but new and better models will take over that have solved the important problems that bitcoin has.
replace bitcoin with government and miners with banks and you'll be spot on.
I don't care much about anti-government agendas and other expressions of teenage rebellion. I care about finding a practical financial tool, that can be used to develop both the finance and the economy. Bitcoin was the first to show that open-sourced monetary systems can be done, and I am thankful for that. But sadly, bitcoin the currency just isn't advanced enough to be used as a practical tool. The blockchain technology can be used as a practical tool to implement into new and better currencies, and the idea of bitcoin can be used as an source of inspiration for new cryptographic innovations.
Bitcoin the currency itself, is just a slot machine, that is shrouded with virtuous looking illusions. People with gambling problems can create a narrative to their spouses, that they are in fact "investors in an highly innovative technological project". That's the intriguing narrative that gets the permission to use the family's life savings on this "new and world changing project". The sad thing is, that if they can't see how it's really just a slot machine, then they can't also see that the machine is rigged to create profit for the house - the biggest holders of coin, and the people who run the unregulated exchanges. They have the power to raise or lower the price as they see fit, while having private information about their customers trading methods and habits.
A practical currency should be unattractive for speculative play, so gamblers who cause instability would stay away. A practical currency should be attractive to merchants, and without the need of middlemen like BitPay who take profit for offering stability. The technology can be used to make money efficient and cheap (the cost of maintaining the monetary system). Bitcoin the currency is far from realizing the potential, and as long as the core devs aren't considering changing PoW mining and fixed coin supply, then I just can't see a way for that to change.
