Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 123. (Read 647176 times)

What's a lot of work?  Just post your trade going forward.  No one ask you to dig your personal trading history, since everyone can make perfect trades with hindsight looking back.

Don't you do at least one or two trades per month?

Please don't post a trade on some extremely volatile stock that goes everywhere up & down.  A good trade has small draw down, and a good profit.  On a volatile stock or especially stock options, you can easily lose 80% before gaining 400%.  That's just playing with math by leveraging.  That is not real trading.  That only takes 1 losing trade to wipe yourself out.

Thanks for the interest rate chart.  Don't you think that bond yields are extremely important to the markets in general?

And if you believe in the butterfly effects in the nonlinear systems, what do you think is the chance that Martin Armstrong can get everything else correct, when he cannot get an important piece of information correct?

If you ask me, the chance is ZERO to have everything else correct, but just one thing wrong.  For the complete nonlinear modelling of economics, every pieces of puzzles MUST all fit together.  If one piece of the puzzle is not fitting, everything else canNOT fit.

Outright lying, once again:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/fannie-freddie-to-go-public-in-2020/


Really? Does Armstrong even bother to look at the data, like European lending rates and European mortgage rates? They are at record lows.

Armstrong is getting dilusional once again:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/euro-skeptics-score-big-will-brussels-reform/


- European-wide anti-EU parties didn't have major gains; only in a few countries
- higher turnout favored pro-European parties, that's why polls were wrong
- in the Netherlands Party For Freedom of Geert Wilders lost all 4 seats, and the Eurosceptic Socialist Party lost both 2 seats, only the new Eurosceptic Forum For Democracy gained 3 seats. On balance, the total Dutch Eurospectic EU-seats halved from 6 to 3 seats. What is Marty talking about?

We can put another prediction on Marty's wrong list: the impact of the EU elections. Now, anti-EU parties gained a little, but less than expected and absolutely nothing revolutionary. Some Eurosceptic fractions actually lost seats. The pro-European Christen-Democrats and the pro-European Social-Democrats practically flipped seats with the pro-European Greens and pro-European Liberals. Such a shocker. EU markets at this moment are basicly flat. Such a surprise. I have absolutely no idea why Marty is building up so much a drama about a total non-event for months and months on end. He should write television soaps.

@bradfromearth Thanks for addressing some of the points. My list was a short summary of the last couple of weeks discussion on here. It seems you have lots to add to the discussion as well!

Regarding your chart, yes the consolidation is clear. It is frustrating for many that the range is so large.  The breakout, I believe will becoming after the ECM turning point in Jan 2020. The shift from Public to Private will rocket the markets ups quickly. It appears; however, that we may make a higher low into July. We will see.

1. GMW useless for trading.  
Not really supposed to be. The name is appropriate. Global Market Watch..  It is helpful when looked at daily and in full.

6. WECs are overpriced and are a repeat of his blog posts
Partly they are networking events for professionals. you get all kinds there. The ones holding really important positions are never going to tell you what they do. They don't want anyone to know they are going because often they have PR to worry about and a guy who was in jail does not sound good to those who don't know any better.

9. No individual on this forum can prove consistent profitability using Socrates
I can absolutely but really do I have to. I don't want to dig all that shit up and rehash my analysis for people on the web. No offense, but you are asking for a lot of work. I will do this. Next time something comes up that I feel is all Socrates I will post the trade before and after and tell you the percentage of return. You can really lever with options. They hate sudden moves.

10. Socrates pro level is expensive and to add several individual equities is costly.
Yes but less costly than other stuff I have seen. What makes it expensive is that it is hard as hell to learn it. Armstrong is no help with his horrible writing skills. I have never even seen him make a correction on a typo. You just have to figure it out. No spell check either.  And Socrates....well think about it this way. HE wrote it. He taught it how to write and it shows.

11. Recent and past private blog posts have been outright wrong with regard to timing calling temp tops/ bottoms, etc...
Show me one. Just one. The move always has to qualify itself at every step.

12. Socrates missed the up move from Jan to April - how? That was a massive move.
Yes but is caught the first one when Trump won and took office. I made multiples AND he called the High accurately. That first one was not consolidation. The ones after that were and still are consolidation. Look at a weekly and monthly for the DOW. It is hard to miss. That first move was the big shift in the market.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/0qqJQP2O/

Thanks :-) will take a look next week to the figures.

The lower numbers are some older numbers mentioned in the private blog as key areas. Likely they have crept upwards at this point.

yes, I will favour short-positions in next week(s). 2nd scenario is that we continue choppy between Weekly reversals, key turning week for markets looks like going to be week 10 June.

I Notice that you have Reversals numbers wrong. I had tweet the graphic of DOW30 with updated reversals, enjoy!  https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA

You could publish your setups here and we trade :-)

I think that the January-April rally was 60% Fed/central banks pivot and 40% China trade deal. The Fed pivot is still in place; so a 38.2% retracement of the rally would be "logical". Despite all the bad news, the markets are holding up pretty well, which says the retracement should be rather shallow, and not a 61.8%, a retest of the lows or something like that.

Yes, that's right a holiday weekend. MACD is turning negative on the weekly...

Nice charts as always.

Lots of downside momentum, but sentiment getting pretty bearish right now. Always watch out for short covering before a big holiday.

Short interest is getting high (only 5% away from all time high, lol).



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-23/traders-are-shorting-the-s-p-500-at-a-rate-unseen-since-2015

still I'm expecting some choppy more to the downside momentum the coming weeks.

Interesting close today on the DOW and the weekly reversal levels. We shall see what the end of week brings.

You raise a good point. He calls some decent numbers that keeps me sticking around. The problem, for me, is that he always warms of a much lower number and a much higher number. Always saying we should test the other number so I don't take the trade. Same thing with the December low. He said we never hit 21,600 in the DOW and should test it, But we rocketed back up....keeps me guessing.

I am a big Armstrong skeptic, I have been reading him almost daily for 6 years. I subscribed to the basic level of Socrates for $15/month until about 2 months ago when I decided that he was correct sometimes and totally wrong other times. Anybody can be right 20% of the time calling for a turning point. GMW is completely useless, I even emailed his support staff to say that it was and only the reversals and his commentary on the private blog were worth anything. Arrays are completely ambiguous. Unsurprisingly they never emailed me back.

However, I must say that Armstrong DID sort of call this most recent low. He missed the month but he got the number correct. He had a big reversal sitting at 21,600 in the DOW which he talked about often. Keep in mind that he also had numbers lower in the 18~ area. AND he has given numbers like this many times before with mixed results.

He wrote on the private blog on December 24th and pointed to it on January 3rd, saying "I wrote on the Private Blog on December 24th: “The likelihood of lower lows into the 26th are good. But this week remains as a Panic Cycle so we can then see a whipsaw back up into the end of the week. Primary support still lies at the 21600 and 21450 level followed by 20002."

So on December 25th at 6pm all the way until midnight the YM DOW mini contract went below 21600 down to a low of 21452.

As ambiguous as he is he technically did get the bottom in December. To anybody who could have divined this number being the correct one on this exact date given his multiple numbers and multiple turning points in time, my hat goes off to you. His system is very blurry for me though and I didn't make that trade.

So, you could argue that long trade off of the reversal is now invalid. Some may now short against the reversal with a stop above. Energy is pointing lower as well on the 2 hour chart.  Or you could simply wait and see if the weekly bearish is actually elected tomorrow at the close.

Yes, Martin Armstrong has always stated time is more important than price (but yet, he canNOT get the time correctly).

However, I lost count on how many times I tried his timing arrays in all kinds of markets, and the success rate was not even more than 50%.

So in summary, I think it's total junk.  And of course, the randomness from the junk will surely give you some hits here and there, but can you average out all the trades to a gain from that?

The reason that I think everyone here eventually gravitates towards the reversal price levels is very simple.  All of those price levels approximate to the basic support/resistance levels, which can easily be picked up by any technical analysis tools, or just eye-ball it.  Support/resistances are REAL.  ALL traders in the market look at them.  They are entirely valid.  And that is the only reason that "Armstrong's" reversal levels kind of work.

However, you NEED to compare his system on reversals, side-by-side, with another system using similar TA that picks out the resistance/support.  Only then, you can judge the merit of it.

If you observe the blog post from Armstrong, quite often, he is taking out the decimal places of the prices.  That simply tells you one thing.  His code is NOT even using floating point (or real) numbers.  It's integer-based.  He just scales things up by 100 or 1000, so that his system can handle it.  That also means that his codes are really old.  So in a way, you are kind of relying on some codes that he has written probably from 30 years ago.  That gives me less trust.  But anyway, that's just a side point.

What is the reason that Armstrong wants to phrase and exaggerate things to such an extent?  He just wants to sound like he is like a God-programmer, above everyone else, and so everyone will be in awe and believe in him?

A close-loop system is pretty much a default in any decent security system.  Did ADT home security company claim that their system is self-aware?