Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 124. (Read 647054 times)

One thing I am confused about as so many are, are the arrays. MA has always stated time is more important than price. If everyone is saying the same thing on this forum about confusion with regards to the arrays and cycle inversions and arrays not indicated important moments ... how can one pickup/ interpret the arrays for timing?
Most here seem to turn to the reversals, which of course, are price related (Secondary to the timing arrays).

I totally agree with what you said above.  However, the problem with Armstrong is that he always tries to project how accurate his models & Socrates is.  How many times did he claim that his ECM model pick the very day of the event, throughout decades if not centuries?  And he does NOT tell you that all of his models are simply trend-following, and therefore looking BEHIND.  Yes, of course, he & Socrates always track closely the market.  But that is PAST information.  You canNOT profit anything from something that has already happened in the PAST.

So Armstrong, in a way, "over-promised" or rather more than likely lied outright about his models and Socrates, when in reality, you can use any TA to get the support/resistance, and the daily/weekly/monthly trends.

Thanks for the above, but obviously, anyone who has been recently reading Armstrong's blog, probably has read the same information above, if not the exact sentences multiple times already.

The problem is that attending WEC still doesn't get you ANY specific timing calls.  It's just very general, and extremely hard to make any money out of such.

What is your source for saying that Socrates was written for DOS in an assembly language?

So lets summarize the week so far:

Friday      May 17th  Nasdaq Close: 7816.28. Election of the bearish Reversal
Thursday  May 23rd  we are trading currently around 7643

Summary so far we have 173 points. I am sure Traders would transform this movement in good cash  :-)



I am still in.

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/market-close-report-nasdaq-composite-index-closes-at-781628-down-8177-points-cm1151100

Regarding buying against the weekly reversal:

We have a DOW weekly reversal that was just touched. The idea is to go long off the level with a stop below it. I'm not trading this, but an interesting level to watch today and tomorrow.

Thanks! I don't know the methodology you use to get to this number. I was trying using reversals intraday, since markets often bounce from them with amazing precision. Those that I choose were not right (obviously). 5920 - 5940 is the next cluster. There is no guarantee that it will hold, after that 58xx is very congested.

I activate newbies pvt messages. just pvt message me. Don´t post your email on a open public forum, it will be used/abused by spammers.

done, invitation sent! you could now ERASE your message so your email address don´t end up on spam bots email list.

Thank you, rosousa!  Very good post. I am aware of that but forget a lot of time. I'll keep it as a reminder.

5) Daily reversals aren´t noise, they´re useful to trading intraday/short-time frame and it just represent what market do in short-term, markets don´t trend 70% of the time and as you come down on your time frame, more sideways/trend less is the market action. But you can make money on sideways market, your approach have just be completely the opposite of any trend following system/rules.

11) that isn´t 100% true. To be fair, he call it both ways, so he´s always right. For trading, his blog posts have negative EV (expected value) as it just confuses you and take you away the confidence to make trading decisions, you just freeze and do nothing after your 1st misstep on the market.

12) Socrates don´t miss trends as it have trend following approach to markets. If you refer to stock market bounce since 26th December´18. Socrates started electing Daily bullish reversals in the end of December and Weekly reversals in Jan´19 month end elected Bullish Reversals on US stock market indexes (DOW, NASDAQ, SP500,...)

The major take away you missing on your review is that trading isn´t about forecasting or being right or wrong. Trading is about formulating the possible scenarios and trade in the direction of the most likely scenario to happen. Trade with the odds in your side, will make you $ over time.

Most people have unrealistic expectations about trading systems/ forecasting systems. A trading approach that identify markets trending and enter on the direction of the trend only have to be right around 30% of the trades to make $. Socrates have a trend following approach to markets, so we should expect something between 30-50% winning trades depending on time frame you´re trading. Most people following Martin Armstrong have a misconception about that key statistic, they believe there´s GOD and higher than GOD itself there´s Martin Armstrong Socrates which can forecast markets with something near 80-100% hit rate. That don´t exist in financial markets, unless you´re able to travel throw time!

@rosousa, that other member is probably not a newbie.

You have to enable PM's from newbies in your forum profile (of course, if you wish to).

There had been some years since I stop using this kind of web forums and I stop using it just because of all this limitations, link bans, etc. I received pvt messages from one of the members already, so the issue should be with your account. But I lack full knowledge on this Forum restrictions/rules. Sorry, can´t help you further, Slack invitations have to be sent to a email address. I could suggest you just create a alias email that will not waste your time checking in the future so will be no spam bots issue posting it on a public forum. 

OK, so I'll try one real time trade.
Oil just tested 60.84 bearish daily. Low was 60.80. Entered long with SL 60.75, TP just below next daily bullish at 62.12.

EDIT: Got stopped out.

I tried but your settings seems not to allow pvt messages from newbies like me. Could you change that? then I can pvt message you. Would be great, many thanks for your support here!

+1

I have found the last couple of days' discussions very informative on here. A huge thank you to all that have shared. A few take aways for me at this point in no particular order:

1. GMW useless for trading
2. Arrays confusing as crap for everyone as sometimes they are 'right' sometimes they are dead wrong and sometimes what was to happen doesn't and is called a cycle inversion. Therefore unreliable for trading. More of a confirmation tool or a heads-up ...something may happen tool
3. Most important information for trading is the reversals
4. You can trade against the reversals long or short, but if elected the trade should be in the direction of the reversal with a tight stop above or below the reversal depending on the trade direction.
5. Daily reversals are mostly just noise, but at times have offered support and resistance levels
5. Weekly and monthly levels are more important.
6. WECs are overpriced and are a repeat of his blog posts
7. Private reports are overpriced history texts with little information offered for trading.
8. Armstrong does cover both sides in blog posts as he states if this then that, but this may happen too.
9. No individual on this forum can prove consistent profitability using Socrates
10. Socrates pro level is expensive and to add several individual equities is costly.
11. Recent and past private blog posts have been outright wrong with regard to timing calling temp tops/ bottoms, etc...
12. Socrates missed the up move from Jan to April - how? That was a massive move.

The list goes on....But I'll stop there for now. I have more questions than answers.

I have a video of a German guy explaining the reversal system form the VOD WEC a few years ago. Nothing special, most has been discussed here, but I will try to locate it. I do remember audience members asking ridiculous questions and not having clue about trading - as it appeared. It was once posted on the Vimeo site but I believe has been removed. I must have it on some drive somewhere.

What is frustrating to me is the concept of buying and selling against the reversals. If we look at the spread in the DOW right now there is about a 1400 point gap between weekly bullish and bearish reversals. This equates to a between 4.5-5% move.

Armstrong talking at HackMiami in 2016 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLqmb8WhosU

Scroll down to Protagonists:  - ://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-story/
'..Tony Godin ..IT specialist..he was the programmer for Armstrongs Princeton Economic International and built the internal IT Security system. He programmed a network that reacted with self-destruction on any interference from outside. When some of the PEI Systems were under attack, he built honey traps and tracked the intruders back to certain IT-addresses in Langley, Virginia - where the CIA has headquarters..'

at 43mins (in German) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLCkRxrfo10
He tells the audience that Socrates was set up in tandem with other computers that 'ping' each other.  Once one is removed it realises there's a problem and self-destructs.
'..Tony is one of the best hackers i've ever seen - he built honey traps and lured them into a fake system..we watched what they did..'

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/10/12/the-secret-cycle
The S.E.C.’s Armstrong case file was lost when the September 11th terrorist attack obliterated its offices, in 7 World Trade Center.

Socrates was written for DOS in an assembly language. He likely knows very little about modern web development and we security. I have done some web development in the past and  I do not recall anyone ever worrying about people getting access to a development site.

Odd comment considering the fact that it is his computer model making the calls and not him.