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Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 163. (Read 647054 times)

member
Activity: 61
Merit: 10
February 01, 2018, 06:58:35 AM
...

I still have yet to find anyone who can convince me that holding BOTH cryptos and precious metals is unwise.  Personal circumstances of course would influence which particulars and in what quantities should be held.

...

And you will not find such a person. I can tell you once a friend gave me a book on mathematical background of investments. I don't have the book now, and I don't remember the equations, but the bottom line of that analysis sunk very deeply: the best (EDIT: and most sure at the same time) returns one gets from maximaly divergent assets, in terms of their mutual correlation. So it seems that gold and crypto are not correlated particularly well and it would be good to have them both in your portfolio.






I too saw some math long ago about how a wide diversification gets better returns (not to mention safer), not in a book, but somewhere.  Safety is very important to me.  That is why my limit of holding cryptos is about 1%.

Of course that will limit any BTC/BCH/ETH/LTC (etc.) gains should they skyrocket.  But, each crypto looks risky and volatile, and the technology keeps changing (not to mention .gov meddling).

Nice comment!  I tried to "merit" you, but am not sure if I have this new feature here figured out.

Thank you, it is very kind and nice welcome coming from you.

I was thinking about it some more after I posted my comment and I figured out that I was not precise enough when I said about returns being "the best (and most sure at the same time)". The author I was referring to, he had a probabilistic model behind investment strategies and his results were expressed in terms of expected value and variance. He showed that one is able to keep expected value high while minimizing the variance when he chooses his portfolio to minimize correlation.

I will try to get the title and author's name and get back to you, if it is of interest to you.

And again: thanks for the warm welcome Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1852
January 31, 2018, 02:47:21 PM
...

I still have yet to find anyone who can convince me that holding BOTH cryptos and precious metals is unwise.  Personal circumstances of course would influence which particulars and in what quantities should be held.

...

And you will not find such a person. I can tell you once a friend gave me a book on mathematical background of investments. I don't have the book now, and I don't remember the equations, but the bottom line of that analysis sunk very deeply: the best (EDIT: and most sure at the same time) returns one gets from maximaly divergent assets, in terms of their mutual correlation. So it seems that gold and crypto are not correlated particularly well and it would be good to have them both in your portfolio.






I too saw some math long ago about how a wide diversification gets better returns (not to mention safer), not in a book, but somewhere.  Safety is very important to me.  That is why my limit of holding cryptos is about 1%.

Of course that will limit any BTC/BCH/ETH/LTC (etc.) gains should they skyrocket.  But, each crypto looks risky and volatile, and the technology keeps changing (not to mention .gov meddling).

Nice comment!  I tried to "merit" you, but am not sure if I have this new feature here figured out.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
January 31, 2018, 12:12:56 PM
Yes so id hold 60% crypto 10% stocks 20% cash(jpy,chf,usd non-commodity safe havens) and 10% metals and other commodities. To me thats ideal.
member
Activity: 61
Merit: 10
January 31, 2018, 10:14:17 AM
...

I still have yet to find anyone who can convince me that holding BOTH cryptos and precious metals is unwise.  Personal circumstances of course would influence which particulars and in what quantities should be held.

...

And you will not find such a person. I can tell you once a friend gave me a book on mathematical background of investments. I don't have the book now, and I don't remember the equations, but the bottom line of that analysis sunk very deeply: the best (EDIT: and most sure at the same time) returns one gets from maximaly divergent assets, in terms of their mutual correlation. So it seems that gold and crypto are not correlated particularly well and it would be good to have them both in your portfolio.



legendary
Activity: 3108
Merit: 1531
yes
January 27, 2018, 06:09:13 PM
Such hyperbole  Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 924
Merit: 311
#TheGoyimKnow
January 27, 2018, 04:49:47 AM
And it's time to declare war on digital currency bugmen and cucks:

The r0ach report 38: Anyone who supports digital currency over silver and gold is the enemy of humanity

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-38-anyone-who-supports-digital-currency-over-silver-and-gold-is-the-enemy-of-humanity
sr. member
Activity: 924
Merit: 311
#TheGoyimKnow
January 26, 2018, 03:04:25 AM
Metals have stood the test of time as a store of value for thousands of years, I don't see them disappearing , though no longer useful as currency.

Who better to defeat the blasphemy of "the real satoshi" than "the real r0ach"?

The r0ach report 37: Eldritch horrors await those who put their faith in imaginary, paper assets

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-37-eldritch-horrors-await-those-who-put-their-faith-in-imaginary-paper-assets

Quote
A random user named "TheRealSat0shi" entered a discussion I was having about metals with:

"Metals have stood the test of time as a store of value for thousands of years, I don't see them disappearing , though no longer useful as currency."

He sounds like a true bitcoin shill, so with absolutely no evidence whatsoever, we will give him the benefit of the doubt that he is in fact the real Satoshi. There is only one problem, bitcoin is nothing more than a glorified paper asset in the end.

For example, if someone were to purchase a Canadian dollar, you're entering an informal contract and receiving an IOU or credit of that nation. Whether your imaginary coupon is honored or not is entirely up to the performance of that counterparty entity. With bitcoin, you're entering the exact same informal contract, except instead of signing up in an informal contract against a counterparty entity, you have signed up for a contract with...no valid counterparty at all!

These words are not to be confused with counterparty risk vs no counterparty risk. You STILL have huge counterparty risk and have done absolutely nothing to remove it, you have only deleted the counterparty of the informal legal agreement. Many aspects of monetary functions are not really economics and are just law, and in this case, you have entered an objectively worse informal legal contract.

What exactly is the draw supposed to be in entering an informal contract with 'nobody'? Supposedly the aggregate of all 'users' were supposed to be your counterparty; in other words, instead of a legal contract, a faith based religion. Even if you buy into religion, this religion only works if bitcoin wasn't designed to centralize and had a functioning Nash equilbrium, but it fails in both cases. You are then not entering into a religion, but back to an obfuscated, informal legal agreement with two or three centralized, rent seeking miners who continuously issue the currency - a powerless, stateless oligarchy instead of a real state.

These emperor with no clothes miners are actually doing the exact same function as the state: trying to take a cut out of every transaction like the normal monetary mafia that controls it. The state doesn't like fly by night pump and dumps trying to take over it's extortion function, and regulatory arbitrage is impossible when bitcoin is designed to centralize, so the state then either crushes bitcoin or co-opts it and turns it into their cashless society slavery system.

On a long enough timeline, for you to not lose all your money, you actually have to pray the state co-opts it! When all is said and done, physical commodity money like silver or gold is the only thing that is not an IOU or credit, removes counter party risk, and actually functions as a hedge against the state. Which is why:

What eldritch horrors await those who put their faith in imaginary, paper assets.
newbie
Activity: 9
Merit: 1
January 25, 2018, 09:48:58 PM
...

I still have yet to find anyone who can convince me that holding BOTH cryptos and precious metals is unwise.  Personal circumstances of course would influence which particulars and in what quantities should be held.

Perhaps gold's biggest problem is the inability of getting a significant quantity through the X-Ray machines at airports...  That is an issue I am still working on, how does one do that?  Perhaps you know of a famous/infamous gold guy named Peter ("Pete T") Trzaska, he claims that there is a way to get gold onto the plane undetected, but he declined to tell me how.

*  *  *

Metals have stood the test of time as a store of value for thousands of years, I don't see them disappearing , though no longer useful as currency.
Metals have switched to a different utility now, more of a collectible asset, they will always be sought after by collectors, like artworks, antiques.
Nothing wrong with storing a portion of your wealth there, just don't expect others outside your niche group of metal collectors to value it the same way you do, nor accept it as currency.
You probably wouldn't accept a 500 year old dusty chinese vase as payment for services, but there's a niche group of collectors who would. The youth now feel the same way about metals.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
January 24, 2018, 10:26:55 PM
...

Actually, CRED.me, your comment to a degree reinforces my near-constant nagging of those with investment assets to diversify their holdings.

You might be right about gold becoming "obsolete", although I doubt it.  True, the young do not like it.  THREE coin dealers here in my city have confirmed to me personally that "Bitcoin is sucking the oxygen out of the room" re physical gold buyers.  But, this is perhaps fashion.

"The Ten Thousand Things Rise and Fall Without Cease"
- Lao Tse (approx. 500 BC)

Gold has been valued by mankind for 6000 years.  I have no problem with keeping a fair amount of gold as "insurance against .gov malfeasance", and you have agreed with that position (note, this comment right here is more for new entrants in this conversation).  Anything that has a 6000 year track record of excellence in Store of Value ought be given the doubt when its value comes called into question.

*  *  *

With the above said, my inclination is to believe that cryptos are a new class of assets.  And it looks like they will become ever more important through time, with the inevitable ups and downs (in part due to .gov interference).

I still have yet to find anyone who can convince me that holding BOTH cryptos and precious metals is unwise.  Personal circumstances of course would influence which particulars and in what quantities should be held.

Perhaps gold's biggest problem is the inability of getting a significant quantity through the X-Ray machines at airports...  That is an issue I am still working on, how does one do that?  Perhaps you know of a famous/infamous gold guy named Peter ("Pete T") Trzaska, he claims that there is a way to get gold onto the plane undetected, but he declined to tell me how.

*  *  *

CRED.me, I have to credit you with your theory (which I have not plowed through yet, only glanced at it) of "The Knowledge Age".  Odds are that smart people, on the average, will reap outsized gains as we move forward in the future.
If gold was used as backing you bet you wouldnt be able to get gold on a plane without claim. Also all trends are made to be broken. Id rather diversify into other assets such as phosphate
sr. member
Activity: 924
Merit: 311
#TheGoyimKnow
January 24, 2018, 06:09:37 PM
THREE coin dealers here in my city have confirmed to me personally that "Bitcoin is sucking the oxygen out of the room" re physical gold buyers.  But, this is perhaps fashion.

Of course it's "fashion".  The overwhelming majority of people are completely clueless when it comes to economics or investing and simply fall back on human herd mentality.  Since they know nothing, they see an asset rise and then believe, "well, there must be people who are more knowledgeable than me investing in this and I will thus defer to their opinion and buy some too since everyone else is". 

This is why pump and dump scams never cease to stop working.  Humans have a finite lifespan so there literally is a sucker born every minute.  The price of bitcoin has been controlled almost entirely by a single entity painting the tape and spoofing walls mostly operating on Bitfinex ever since the price was $200.  I'm probably the first person to talk about this, and then later even Zerohedge wrote articles about it calling him "the Bitfinex spoofer".  One scammer can create an army of zombies to follow him.

Just like all artificially rigged pump and dumps, bitcoin will fall out of fashion, the lemmings will sell their bitcoin post-collapse at the same price or lower than what they bought in, and then say "darn, I wish I bought metals before gold went up 10x and silver went up 20x. I guess i'll buy some now!".  To actually make money, you have to be somewhat of a contrarian investor and buy cold markets while immediately dumping any market full of dumb money lemmings.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1852
January 24, 2018, 12:36:56 PM
...

Actually, CRED.me, your comment to a degree reinforces my near-constant nagging of those with investment assets to diversify their holdings.

You might be right about gold becoming "obsolete", although I doubt it.  True, the young do not like it.  THREE coin dealers here in my city have confirmed to me personally that "Bitcoin is sucking the oxygen out of the room" re physical gold buyers.  But, this is perhaps fashion.

"The Ten Thousand Things Rise and Fall Without Cease"
- Lao Tse (approx. 500 BC)

Gold has been valued by mankind for 6000 years.  I have no problem with keeping a fair amount of gold as "insurance against .gov malfeasance", and you have agreed with that position (note, this comment right here is more for new entrants in this conversation).  Anything that has a 6000 year track record of excellence in Store of Value ought be given the doubt when its value comes called into question.

*  *  *

With the above said, my inclination is to believe that cryptos are a new class of assets.  And it looks like they will become ever more important through time, with the inevitable ups and downs (in part due to .gov interference).

I still have yet to find anyone who can convince me that holding BOTH cryptos and precious metals is unwise.  Personal circumstances of course would influence which particulars and in what quantities should be held.

Perhaps gold's biggest problem is the inability of getting a significant quantity through the X-Ray machines at airports...  That is an issue I am still working on, how does one do that?  Perhaps you know of a famous/infamous gold guy named Peter ("Pete T") Trzaska, he claims that there is a way to get gold onto the plane undetected, but he declined to tell me how.

*  *  *

CRED.me, I have to credit you with your theory (which I have not plowed through yet, only glanced at it) of "The Knowledge Age".  Odds are that smart people, on the average, will reap outsized gains as we move forward in the future.
legendary
Activity: 3108
Merit: 1531
yes
January 24, 2018, 06:40:05 AM
Perhaps you see things that aren’t there.
sr. member
Activity: 924
Merit: 311
#TheGoyimKnow
January 24, 2018, 05:41:59 AM
And another red flag cryptocucks are getting fleeced soon:


sr. member
Activity: 924
Merit: 311
#TheGoyimKnow
January 24, 2018, 02:44:42 AM
hahaha ... roach getting pwnd on monetary science by anonymint!! cryptos brings out all the weirdos that's for sure ... goldbugs actually do not like free markets for money after all, they prefer the rubber glove of gubmint agents from wall st up their backsides.

Are you high on drugs?  Paid govt shills are currently posting telling people to dump metals and buy the DOW + cryptocurrency.

The r0ach report 36: Paid govt shills spotted telling people to dump metals and buy DOW + cryptocurrency

http://steemit.com/bitcoin/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-36-paid-govt-shills-spotted-telling-people-to-dump-metals-and-buy-dow-cryptocurrency

They have teams of people posting this stuff on multiple metals sites at the same time. Ever since it was clear that the bottom was in for metals, these "people" immediately descended upon the metals sites like locusts out of nowhere a couple months ago.

When the bottom for bitcoin was in at the $200 range, these same paid shills were all over bitcointalk.org posting the exact same stuff.

Whether they're paid by the govt or banks is semantics. The banks are the govt so it's all the same difference to me. But it's pretty damn clear, these people want you to buy their overpriced DOW and cryptocurrency and sell them your metals that are at the floor cost of production.

So without further commentary, judge for yourself:



jr. member
Activity: 42
Merit: 4
January 23, 2018, 08:03:39 PM
hahaha ... roach getting pwnd on monetary science by anonymint!! cryptos brings out all the weirdos that's for sure ... goldbugs actually do not like free markets for money after all, they prefer the rubber glove of gubmint agents from wall st up their backsides.


With respect, not all physical gold advocates prefer interference from .gov nor Wall St.  I highly value some some cryptos as well as gold.

Having great respect for free markets is no way incompatible with liking BTC and/or Au.

Perhaps his implication was about my (quotes of Armstrong’s) point that all the claims about gold being long-term manipulated to suppress its true value are claims about indicators which can also be manipulated or which have free market justifications for their indications which have nothing to do with suppressing gold. There’s no firm basis to conclude that gold is manipulated long-term, i.e. free markets instead must be assumed. It’s documented (by Armstrong first-hand such as the Buffett case with silver in the late 1990s) that markets can be short-term manipulated wherein the “NY bankers” for example try to trade against their own clients, but this can be to the upside as well as downside and only short-term (as Armstrong has documented and explained).

Your valuation of gold is presumably (given prior statements in this thread) based on the belief that it has always been money and always will be money (i.e. could be handed down to the children and grandchildren as a family heirloom), but that is historically false. Better forms of money come along and render the prior forms useless as money, e.g. sheepskins, shells, slabs of iron/bronze used to all be money. Gold was more compact, transportable and more fungible than the aforementioned antiquated forms of money. Paper money was even more so, but could be created willy-nilly by various nation-state regimes. Now crypto is even more so and adds the inability for any one nation-state to corrupt it’s invariants (e.g. protocol programmed money supply). And I’m (and I presume others are) working on even further improving the decentralized invariance of ledgers. Technology doesn’t stop moving forward just to accommodate old people who still think the world is flat.

If we’re very lucky gold might go to $5000 at most (Bitcoin already raced past gold and is going to a $million by 2024 or so), and then we have to hope that governments won’t target those with large holdings of gold as terrorists (and/or blame them for the financial collapse1) when they try to sell at that price. If you don't sell such as the peak in 1979/80, then you ride gold down for decades as interest rates peak and a new bond bubble forms. And also I think the next bear market for precious metals will take them down towards irrelevance because of the advent of decentralized ledgers.

It’s just time. Precious metals are nearly finished in human history. To all readers, we’re at the cusp of a major shift in the monetary history of the world. Get on the train or be left behind.

Afaics, all forms of fungible physical money are becoming defunct, including gold. Gold will become just like any other physical asset equivalent to real estate. It will no longer be effectively movable, because no one will be willing to buy it without paying tracked electronic money for it in exchange which of course the governments can then tax, confiscate, and restrict movement same as for real estate. Barter isn’t coming back. Gold will become trinkets for fondling and gazing, like jewelry, gaudy gold trim such as at the Trump executive suites.

1
We are bringing this model back into play because there are rising concerns among our European clients that if they hedge against the decline of the Euro and government bonds in the EU when the collapse unfolds, they will be targeted for undermining the government. The way to avoid this and be “politically correct” traders, is to once again create synthetics correlated with time.

With the hostility in Europe eliminating the ability to short government bonds in a pathetic attempt to prevent the collapse of the EU bond market, it is paramount that we resurrect our synthetic models in order to be “politically correct” in trading what will no doubt turn into a witch-hunt once again.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1852
January 23, 2018, 05:13:29 PM
hahaha ... roach getting pwnd on monetary science by anonymint!! cryptos brings out all the weirdos that's for sure ... goldbugs actually do not like free markets for money after all, they prefer the rubber glove of gubmint agents from wall st up their backsides.


With respect, not all physical gold advocates prefer interference from .gov nor Wall St.  I highly value some some cryptos as well as gold.

Having great respect for free markets is no way incompatible with liking BTC and/or Au.
jr. member
Activity: 42
Merit: 4
January 23, 2018, 03:06:55 PM
I am confused: is Blocklattice the same as RaiBlocks?

Yes afaik it’s the same design. They changed the name based on that post I linked for you where AnonyMint had made them aware of the Rai concept that Vitalik had written about.

Afaics, they’re releasing a design that was thoroughly debunked in order to grab the money from n00b speculators.
legendary
Activity: 3108
Merit: 1531
yes
January 23, 2018, 12:08:26 PM
I am confused: is Blocklattice the same as RaiBlocks?
jr. member
Activity: 42
Merit: 4
January 23, 2018, 05:19:26 AM
Some of you were asking upthread about RaiBlocks:

RaiBlocks:

RaiBlocks is a highly flawed design that was debunked by experts (including @gmaxwell Gregory Maxwell Core Bitcoin developer) in 2015 as linked below. Heck Vitalik and AnonyMint even helped them think of the name change from Blocklattice to RaiBlocks.

[…]



Does Armstrong read this thread? See his latest blog today quoted below:


Money is an information system that enables cooperation and civilization. The quantity theory of money is wrong, wrong, wrong at many different levels of analysis.

You're arguing both pro-statist and anti-statist for the same point.

My analysis is like 3D chess. You’re still stuck in one dimensional (one degree-of-freedom) analysis.

It is by no means a one-dimensional economy. This is global and we are all connected.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
January 23, 2018, 03:35:15 AM
hahaha ... roach getting pwnd on monetary science by anonymint!! cryptos brings out all the weirdos that's for sure ... goldbugs actually do not like free markets for money after all, they prefer the rubber glove of gubmint agents from wall st up their backsides.
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