Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 158. (Read 647054 times)

We are all still trying to figure this out. On Armstrongs website there are guides of how to use the arrays, its not as simple as buy/sell at the turning points, there are also cycle inversions but how to know when they unfold im also no sure.
Have a look at these, they were posted a while back and summarise lots of the socrates stuff.

https://imgur.com/a/XjmXL
https://imgur.com/a/UXJVxEn

Personally I ignore the almost all of the socrates text and just look at the reversals and try and trade with or off them. As you have said though Socrates has also started providing the array turning points so I am now trying to use these together with the reversals.

Hi, I am new here. I'm glad that there is a discussion of how to use this system.

I have been using Socrates for awhile.

Other than reversals and turning points, is there a previous post about how to use Socrates analyses?

For example:

What does it mean when Socrates said: "our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 169498"?

It said "bullish" but sometimes the number is below the current market price. Why?

Is the price going down?

1. It said: "Looking at the Array, the key Weekly targets on the Turning Point Model... Considering all factors, there is a possibility of a decline moving into 8/6 with the opposite trend thereafter into the week of August 27th."
2. It also said: "At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level."
3. It also said: "It is possible to see a turning point come this month... Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame"

The above three sentences are making me confused.

"The next turning point should be a reaction high with a possibility that the market decline into 8/6 and the opposite trend thereafter" --> Does this mean I should buy this market on 8/6?

Should I wait until it elected a weekly bullish reversal? Should I wait until the weekly trend change to rising?

Should I focus only on the reversals and turning points?
 
I mean there are so many ways to use this system. Is there a guide we can use?

Thanks

Italy and Greek bonds are not backed by physical assets and its possible both governments would block the large scale purchase of land and physical assets with FIAT currency.     This is a current problem for China with its large bond holdings, they have been blocked a few times on billion dollar level asset purchases.  Its not much use having currency when politics over rules its base use and undermines its worth long term

Deutsche Bank is a private bank, why would government care especially unless that bank is also a backer of government debt perhaps and the bonds held would be sold into market by creditors and so raise national rates.   That avenue is a viable reason why I guess

Germany does profit from a weak EUR. More than a fiat dept loss to banks is worth, and printing and dilluting helps finally to minimize fiat losses.

On the other side they will own half Greece and Italy in physical aspects...

Looks like Martin’s SLINGSHOT is in play.

But Bitcoin was also the only other major asset that also broke up through downtrend line after July 12. Looks like Bitcoin will be mooning again into 2020/21 around the next halving.

Frankly, I think Germans will withdraw from the eurozone and let the euro collapse before they let Deutsche Bank collapse.

The Dow has broken the so according to Martins last post this means we have a cycle inversion, lets see if it can elect the reversal at 258000, if so it will be the confirmation to go long.

I do have a question about the cycle inversion and how it works. Take for example a turning point that is a high close or an intraday high, does that mean that if price penetrates the high of this turning point candle there is a cycle inversion unfolding which will last till the next turning point? Is this how it works?

So for example the GBPUSD Turning points Gumbi posted were the key targets are, 7/30, 8/13, 9/3. Now since 7/30 was a bearish bar it should have been the low but now since the low has been penetrated price should continue lower until 8/13?

Also does electing a reversal or rejecting a reversal change the odds of a cycle inversion? A weekly bearish was elected on the turning point of 7/30 at 1.31010, price has continued to move lower and has penetrated the next reversal at 1.29830 so its another confirmation of a cycle inversion, I think.

Armstrong has talked about selling off a bullish reversal when there was a turning point in the array and price could not reach it. In WEC video on vimeo they explain this a little one of the speakers, a German guy says keeps saying things like, time was up so the market had to turn. So what I think he meant is that price couldn't reach and elect the next reversal before the major turning point so it had to go lower, but they don´t say much about cycle inversions.

What do you think?

Would be good to know if we can sort of anticipate these inversions.

 

Thanks Gumbi! very helpful.




Looks like there will be a cycle inversion for the Dow as it has just about touched the July high level. Maybe this will be the return to the run away market.

Sure thing no problem. There was a RARE SUPER POSITION EVENT for the NASDAQ as well AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 3
"We have actually elected four Weekly Bullish Reversals on the close and this implies we should still press higher at this moment. "

British Pound Spot
The key Weekly targets in time in the Array on the Turning Point Model, defined as highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis, are the weeks of 7/30, 8/6, 8/13, 8/20, 9/3, 9/10 and 10/1. Keep in mind that each target will normally produce the opposite event except during a Cycle Inversion, which is indicated when two targets produce the same type of event. All the same, the key targets are, 7/30, 8/13, 9/3 and 10/1. The two main targets to pay attention to are Mon. Jul. 30, 2018 and Mon. Aug. 13, 2018. The strongest target in the Weekly array is the week of July 30th for a turning point ahead. It does appear we have a choppy period starting 7/30 until 8/20 with each target producing the opposite direction for that 4-week period. We also see a choppy period between 9/3 until 9/10 with each target producing the opposite direction for that 2-week period. We have a Weekly Directional Change target due the week of 7/23. This also lines up with a Panic Cycle on this target so there could be an outside reversal or just a sharp move in one direction. When these two line up, sometimes the Panic Cycle can affect the next target. 

I think this month should produce a low with a turning point in September probably a high occurring the week of 9/3 in September based on the monthly and weekly arrays for the pound which hopefully you have.

EUR/USD
Centering on time using the Array, prospective Weekly targets on the Turning Point Model, defined as highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis, are the weeks of 7/23, 7/30, 8/6, 8/13, 8/20, 8/27, 9/3, 9/10, 9/17, 9/24 and 10/1. Keep in mind that each target will normally produce the opposite event except during a Cycle Inversion, which is indicated when two targets produce the same type of event. Despite everything, the primary targets are, 7/23, 8/6, 8/20, 9/3, 9/17 and 10/1. The two main targets to pay attention to are Mon. Jul. 23, 2018 and Mon. Aug. 6, 2018. The strongest target in the Weekly array is the week of July 23rd for a turning point ahead. We have a Weekly Directional Change target due the week of 7/16. This coincides with a turning point so in this case we can see at least an intraday event or a turning point based on the close. 



I think today is a great opportunity to short the Dow Jones as long as we do not exceed the July high and hopefully close below resistance on a closing basis at 25520.

What do these models mean for real estate prices in California? Will they continue to go up until 2017.9?

I have not heard before about this particular man but it feels good that we are having so strong players on our side, when the biggest investors In The World are saying that cryptocurrency is not worthy to invest in...

Thanks for the turning points, I guess it will be choppy for the next few weeks. Also what you said about the changing reversals makes sense to.

I also saw this on the GBPUSD Socrates report.
 
RARE SUPER POSITION EVENT
We have actually elected four Weekly Bearish Reversals on the close and this suggests we should still press lower at this time.

Haven´t seen a post like this before either. Gumbi, do you have the turning points for GBPUSD? I saw they were there but I dident save them because I thought the new turning points were a new permanent new feature of Socrates.

I managed to get the weekly targets in gold and oil if you were interested. ( I have others If you need)

Gold Nearest Futures
The primary Weekly targets in the Array on the Turning Point Model, defined as highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis, are the weeks of 7/30, 8/6, 8/13, 8/20, 8/27, 9/3, 9/10, 9/24 and 10/1. Keep in mind that each target will normally produce the opposite event except during a Cycle Inversion, which is indicated when two targets produce the same type of event. Nonetheless, the main targets are, 7/30, 8/13, 8/27, 9/10 and 10/1. The two main targets to pay attention to are Mon. Aug. 13, 2018 and Mon. Aug. 27, 2018. The strongest target in the Weekly array is the week of August 13th for a turning point ahead. It does appear we have a choppy period starting 7/30 until 9/10 with each target producing the opposite direction for that 7-week period. There are Weekly Directional Change targets from 7/23 to 7/30 warning of a potential choppy swing period for these few weeks.

Crude Oil Futures
The primary Weekly targets in the Array on the Turning Point Model, defined as highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis, are the weeks of 7/30, 8/27, 9/3, 9/17, 9/24. There is a likelihood of a decline moving into 7/30 with the opposite trend thereafter into the week of August 27th. The strongest target in the Weekly array is the week of July 30th for a turning point ahead. It does appear we have a choppy period starting 8/27 until 9/3 with each target producing the opposite direction for that 2-week period. We also see a choppy period between 9/17 until 9/24 with each target producing the opposite direction for that 2-week period. We have Weekly Directional Change targets due the weeks of 7/16, and 10/1.

Regarding why the reversals tend to change so often I believe this quote from Armstrong should help.

" Reversal points are generated each time a market or economic statistic produces a new isolated high or low, either on an intraday or closing basis. It has to be an isolated high or low, they are not generated if it was just an inside day. If you are making a new high, let's say for 7 days in a row, it will generate, assuming each day is the high it will generate a series of reversals,  They will be negated if you make another new high the next day and then the next day, once that high is in place then they become permanent. They don't become permanent until you get the high or low."

Regarding the Dow Jones daily array I thought today would be the low based on the array but it has inverted finding support at the 25086 level which was previous resistance. I think moving forward the week of 8/6 should produce a low since the July high should hold what are your thoughts moving forward on the daily and weekly array I think we are currently very close to resistance at 25520 and we probably move down into next week.

Dont know about any one group in control, I dont especially doubt democracy but its true that capitalism is not really in operation while prices are so widely controlled.  A central bank of this nature was a stated objective of the initial communist USSR apparently, its related to a socialism type thinking more then competitive capitalism would not allow such fixing of interest rates and especially QE is not a product of a free system

I have also never seen them before on socrates. I saw it last night and they seemed to be there for all subscriptions I wanted to take a closer look today but they have since been removed.

Most people who aren't clueless know places like the US aren't capitalist, but are more like communism with a central bank administered by Jewish Marxists with markets entirely centrally controlled by the ESF.  If you know there is no sort of free market whatsoever, and everything is centrally controlled, it makes whatever Armstrong is babbling about complete bullshit.  Just like anyone who refuses to go near the Jewish question and touch upon just who the people are that are running these extortion rackets also full of shit.

It would be ideal if price could reach and then reject the 25800 level next week, as you said preferably the 31st, which is also a panic cycle. It does not look like the dow can reach the 26620 in 3 days so I am expecting the July high but im waiting till the 31st to get in.

Socrates posts all the reversals, minor, intermediate and major, it just does not differentiate. I have been drawing them in for few months now and sometimes a reversal will be elected and then Armstrong will comment after the fact about a minor reversal being elected. I don´t delete the levels but sometimes even if no new reversal has been elected socrates will change the reversal given. I don´t know if it has then generated a new one or something else happened that reduced the relevance of the first reversal. What did supprise me is that in the link you gave to the imgur article written by a reddit user , it says that when socrates changes the reversal numbers the old reversal numbers are invalidated. What I read from Armstrong website is that once in place reversals remain valid until elected.

BTW when then hell is the trader version coming out? I think its now 2.5 year delayed. He said there will be a form where some experienced user will help and answer questions instead of us trying figure it out on our own. Its kinda stupid the only place I can find to discuss his stuff is on a bitcoin forum, where are all the other users?

I agree on the Dollar index, it took its biggest fall for many years in the first months of this year but overall has recovered some in 2018.   Where as in 2017 the Dollar index peaked at year start and fell for the rest of the year, that greatly helped the story for Bitcoin and encouraging wider usage I think.

However the point I will disagree on is dollar continuing to rise long term.   If we measure dollar in the every day cost to a working man, prices are rising and dollar is becoming worth less.   The dollar index is measured relative to Yen, Euro and many currencies with large deficits and with money supply biased to debt.    If interest rates can rise above inflation the value of FIAT currencies does not continue to decline then Gold could see a greater pullback but I dont see this as a reasonable forecast right now.

All the major currencies to the dollar index are running fiscal deficits and also trading deficits in many cases, the difference being made up in both cases by the holding of debt.  The unwinding of this situation will result in the lower value of those currencies, that underlines the likely appreciation of gold or even Bitcoin which holds a fixed known supply.   The ongoing problem with Dollar and EURO is they are self biased to politics which is not productive, the lower growth results in greater debt most likely placed as an unfair burden on the entire country not just the areas failing.  My point is that the weakness is not seen in gold value, the softer of the two is the dollar standard hence gold price rises further

Dat facebook megacrash.

you should disregard anyone giving turning dates or times to the day.. its a fraud.. always look for longer term analysis which is combined with some sort of intuition either algorithmically or through experience that you cant buy. his previous calls that were short term always failed that ive seen.