Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 229. (Read 647062 times)

I don't need to be persuaded that the Dow is not going to 30-40K not by 2017, 2020, or 2022. I exposed MA fraud from the very first message here https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13563151. He is a charlatan, does not know anything, does not have a supercomputer, almost always wrong and is there just to make money on idiots like @iamnotback. I proved it in my posts.

Arent Pension funds controlled by government already some of the largest holders of government bonds.   If they are holding at high prices such as now which is not justified, they will see losses.   Perhaps the pension will give out lump sums as a bond and the loss of value over time from its return is with the pension holder who is now getting 3% PA with 10% inflation

A child cannot withstand most illnesses as well as an adult, or even an adolescent. A dark age is like an illness contracted during youth that is relatively harmless later on. Humanity reached a point about two thousand years ago where its spread and resilience was no longer threatened by any single calamity, otherwise a dark age culminating in something like the black plague might have effectively wiped out the species.

Since humanity had grown, in overall complexity as well as number, it was able to survive.


The systems used to generate the forecast do not run for free: there are input costs. It is also not wrong to earn a living.

If you knew the cost of the subscription, you'd see how comical the question is. It seems that what you're really railing against is the difficulty in understanding the forecasting system which, admittedly, is not the easiest thing to grasp.

Read through the models, follow along with some of the forecasts and historical charts, and you'll start to get a feel for how it works. It took me a few years to start seeing consistent results, and they've been well worth it.


While landing a plane at a steep angle and in thick fog, Clinton wants to push the yoke hard over while Trump is trying to pull up. The former obliterates everyone aboard while the latter at least affords a chance of survival.

The time frame is nearly identical - it's the intensity that differs. Either way the end result is still decline.


According to Armstrong (I don't have links offhand, and the numbers are approximate):

If the DOW breaks to new highs this year, the 40k target is in play.

If the DOW declines below 17k, further collapse is indicated.

If the DOW stays within the 17-20k range during 2017, the high target rises to 60k between 2018-2020.

At the close of 2016 the DOW did not rise above a key level and has remained range-bound. We'll have to simply watch for the two breakout scenarios, otherwise acknowledge the range and new target.

The reason for equities continuing to rise is that there is no other asset pool that can absorb the kind of flows that are seeking safety. Government debt, including most currencies, are becoming hostile to investment thanks to negative yield while various regulatory uncertainties are precluding major flows into real estate and many other capital-intensive assets.

That leaves a select few currencies, predominantly the US dollar, and highly liquid assets that are not prone to the kind of capital controls and stigma that precious metals are: stocks and corporate debt.

As you astutely noted in your next comment, it is possible that a government may confiscate wealth. It might not be as easy for a government to confiscate stocks as it is to simply lock down bank accounts, bonds and retirement funds. That is why crypto is the new gold.


Deflation and inflation are constantly occurring at the same time. If the money supply is not rising faster than it is being demanded as the economy grows, then deflation is greater than inflation. The key point is that nothing is static and the money supply is always changing in relation to economic growth (or contraction).

As the dollar rises in value, foreign businesses will have to spend more of their local currency to acquire dollars to pay back dollar-denominated loans that were pushed over the past several years. Demand for dollars rises, so the dollar grows stronger at an increasing rate.

Inflation may be occurring domestically in the US but the rest of the world is demanding dollars as well, offsetting the money supply increase by a significant margin. This is when the interest rates will start to rise in an attempt to slow demand, since the unlikely alternative of simply introducing more dollars at a pace sufficient to handle the demand has become politically unpalatable.

I imagine the situation as a flamethrower where the velocity of fuel being expelled is too slow. Even though fuel is being propelled out, the flame advances up the nozzle faster than it can leave. There is a point where the process can no longer be reversed and then it's only a moment before the entire tank BLEVEs. Monetary authorities will not be able to react quickly enough.


Yes, although this is when confidence is lost and will occur at the tail end of the demand rush as dollar value tumbles. It is the steepest part of a waterfall decline.

Until somewhat recently I had no solid opinion one way or the other. After exploring the topic more, I find it overwhelmingly more likely that climate change is indeed cyclical as Armstrong states. That does not preclude volatility spikes or regional variations. The earth itself is another source of influence on the climate - without heat from the core in addition to that of the sun, the situation would be very different here.

Humanity's influence is marginal compared to natural sources. Environmental pollution undoubtedly causes temporary and localized distortions, but certainly has not reached anywhere near the level needed to cause the kind of change that would throw the solar cycle's effects off.

Keep digging for yourself, though. When there's so much misinformation, it becomes necessary to cultivate an ability to find legitimate threads.

Interest rates rise in a no bid market.  The alternative is that the govt confiscates your money in the bank and replaces it with bonds.

Why would interest rates rise in an inflationary supply expanding scenario? Doesnt it rise to curb deflation?

I wouldn't touch the stock market right now with someone else's money, let alone my own.  We will either have some form of super inflation or the DOW is gonna bring the pain in losses soon.  Take the following chart for instance.  Each time margin debt went parabolic, it then crashed the DOW to BELOW where it originally went parabolic from.  This means DOW is going to have a mega crash down to something like 6k, while taking a brief rest around 10k on the way (this chart is old and it looks much worse now):



The only way out of that is to print a metric fuck ton of money to inflate the bubble even higher.  You also have a comical relationship in the following pictures.  Trump would likely have to increase debt levels by somewhere between 10-20 trillion to keep this thing afloat, which would then send interest rates to pluto and have the entire world on fire with unserviceable debt.  We truly are at the endgame of the debt based scam currency here:

You do not because you keep pretending it's impossible for current civilization to enter another dark age.  "Increasing entropy" is not a roadblock to stop a dark age, it's the exact opposite.  How do you get this logic completely backwards?  The more increasing complexity in a system, the harder it falls.  The more inputs required to make a system function, the more of an exponentially, unsustainable resource curve you have being required to make it work (both in terms of specialized humans and physical commodities/overall energy input).  

So technology is doomed by design to experience intense crash cycles and wipe out many previous gains unless you live in an entirely open ecosystem, which we don't.  You could maybe try to claim the solar energy radiated from the sun is a bypass to this fact, but you would still need resources to build panels all over the place and continuously more resources to service and replace them since humans don't natively absorb sunlight and turn it into fuel to do work.  Not to mention metric tons of batteries everywhere.



So first Armstrong has a magical computer that hands him information about a supposedly deterministic universe which would allow anyone with access to this data to instantly become the richest person on earth, but instead of becoming rich, he just needs US to give him OUR money?  You don't see anything wrong with this picture?



The fact that Armstrong has the exact same prediction and timeline for everything no matter which candidate won the 2016 election should show you it's complete bullshit.  Yes, we all know the system is going to crash, but it would likely play out in vastly different ways and timelines under the banker preferred candidate and non-banker preferred candidate.

I observe MA's post along with others and try to make sense of it all.  I must say he is good but not perfect.  Nobody is perfect.

Peter Turchin is also another interesting personality I follow and observe his writings.   There is something to the patterns indeed but the art of recognizing likely is to complex. 

I do have a question on one topic on which I have not made up my mind yet:  This Global Warming

1)  Is it real and something new for humanity or is it just a cycle as MA suggests
2) Is it Man-Made? or again Natural cycle

I understand my inquiries are not related to market directions specifically...but this plays a critical role in overall scheme of things.

Looking forward to all of your feedback.

Thank you

He is not giving you the details, because you are not a paying subscriber. I know what he wrote in gold report for this week (although I am not a paying subscriber), and he is saying if we close the week above $1221 then there is a potential for $100 upside from there, else if we close the month below the monthly bearish reversal of $1243, then January will be the high for this deadcat bounce and February is a directional change and trading cycle month on his colored bar system.

He also reiterates nothing has changed, that Trump is driving confidence high thus it is premature for a bull market run into precious metals (i.e. we are witnessing a deadcat bounce).

Again I reiterate for the umpteenth time: DOLLAR UP, GOLD DOWN until this short dollar vortex peaks in 2018.

Martin was answering a question in that blog post about whether the coming low below $1050 could come later in 2018 and Martin is saying probably not. The low is probably in 2017.

So he hasn't changed anything. Again r0ach, you need stop putting your foot in your mouth by commenting about Armstrong when you don't even understand his stance or his models. And you don't even have access to his predictions because you are not a paying subscriber (because you prefer to be in the poor house than leverage an expert).

Instead you prefer charlatans tinfoil hats who sell you a bunch of nonsense.

Gold is perhaps getting a bounce (in addition to purely technical reasons such as short covering or whatever), because there was some doubt this week whether Trump's control over the Republican Congress was sufficient to enact his tax plan which will send the dollar soaring by bringing $5 trillion of corporate cash home (which will accelerate the short dollar vortex factors such as rising interest rates, etc).


P.S. I don't feel good about sharing his paid subscriber info in public and hope Armstrong will not get angry at me. I do it this one time only to teach you skeptics a lesson. Now watch what happens.

Roach, do not waste your time on such a dumb moron @iamnotback. This degenerate loser will never learn. He lost a lot of money buying bs reports and subscriptions from a con artist Armstrong but still keeps promoting Armstrong's crap here. But back to a charlatan Armstrong.

Remember his call on the Dow at 40K by 2015? So what did he do when it became obvious even for idiots like @iamnotback that he failed? Well, he simply shifted the dates as he always does when he is always wrong.  Then it became 40K in 2017. It didn't happen. So what did he do? He shifted the dates again. For 2020. Now it is clear it's not going to happen, so what does he do? You are right. He is shifting the dates yet again. Now for 2022. Always the same dirty salesman tricks. And why not, his sheepies such as @iamnotback will keep buying his crap anyway.

Transmission line losses can be quite small over long distances if the AC voltage is high enough:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission#Losses

...

iamnotback

My understanding (and EVERYONE here please know that I have no deep understanding of anything, just a "reasonable" understanding of various subjects) is that solar energy IS becoming quite cost-competitive with fossil fuels.

Based on the map you posted, I can also see that solar might work well for Orange India.  While there are huge areas of Africa, Arabia, S America and even the US desert SW & Mexico, those locations are not that good for supplying energy (electric power anyway -- transmission line losses) to the largest population centers.

Wind energy, on the other hand, seems to be looking LESS economic.  Ah, there is unacceptable energy loss in the BEARINGS used in wind turbines for example.  The landscape of Italy is littered with idle windmill turbines...

Confiscation of the oil companies by Putin's corrupt oligarchs wouldn't have anything to do with that would it. Another example is Venezuelan production after they nationalized the oil industry, because ongoing investment (and technology from major oil companies) is required.

Corruption. Or the Iron Law of Political Economics which is that governance will always overcentralize.

And remember Russia also is the source of the science on abiotic oil theory which states oil is replenished by the earth.


Society is simply deciding that cheaper environmentally unfriendly energy sources are less desired than more expensive solar panels. It is a rational decision, because energy cost is not the fundamental or major driver of the Knowledge Age economy.

The theoretical area of the small black dots is sufficient to supply the world's total energy needs of 18 TW with solar power:




Again corruption, the Iron Law of Political Economics which is that governance will always overcentralize.

No nightmares of Jewish boogeymen are necessary.



See those tiny black dots on the image I posted.



Arguing with a zealot is a waste of my time. Enjoy.

You don't even seem to understand the science and math of what you are writing.

The strong dollar is unavoidable and Trump's policies will only make it more so:

http://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/Agents-of-Change-in-2017/Politics-Economy/Escalating-US-China-tensions-are-bad-news-for-Asian-stability?page=2

http://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Equities/Who-s-bracing-for-the-great-rotation

Also USA interest rates are headed up which will accelerate the short dollar vortex and destabilize the emerging markets.

Trump: "Dollar is too strong".
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-17/dollar-tumbles-after-trump-calls-currency-too-strong-slams-border-adjustment-tax

Yea i called it out on that kinda stuff armstrong does and really pretty much debunked anything armstromg predicts in the short or medium term because its all just noise and noone can predict it. He did the same thing with dow then changed his mind.. im not sure if his slingshot has been validated or not lol but  basically he will claim the last dip as the one that was the slingshot he always was looking for where as any market we know always has dips.. the fundamentals havent changed and its easy to predict that in the face of an obvious bullish trend... and he also said that there was a chance that it just kept going down instead of slinging back so he played both sides if i remember.. jury is out on his long term stuff but short or med term im not buying

Martin Shekelstein's latest gold price talk where he speaks a few paragraphs while saying absolutely nothing:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-bullion-v-coins/

I say he says nothing because the amount of Orwellian doublespeak makes each of his sentences cancel out each other, such as:

"The benchmarks come into play in 2018, but they could be the first high rather than a low and that would confirm a change in trend. The 2015 closing is the lowest"

So first he's saying gold is going to crash way below $1000, now he's typing some obscure reference that the 2015 closing was the low.  Let's cut the bullshit here.  Everything Armstrong does is similar to what Elliot wave traders do, and everyone knows how stupendously wrong Elliot wave traders get things.  In fact, you can't even tell if he's now claiming that was the low or not because he writes his posts obfuscated and poorly on purpose so that later they can be interpreted either way for him to claim he's right.  

Seriously, read that link.  NO ANALYST on the entire planet writes things that cryptically because you don't qualify as an analyst in the first place if you write like that.  He will then reference this cryptic, Nostradamus level post a year from now that says absolutely nothing claiming he was some type of prophet.  The more cryptic you write, the righter you can be!  Look, Nostradamus predicted Trump victory! (electoral college was December)

Great post roach!

It doesn't matter what that guy says because the Russian govt analysts say the same thing about oil.  I'm not digging up the PDF right now, but the summary is that around 2020 or so the Russians start to have problems keeping up with exports.  I don't remember the year for Saudi Arabs, but I think it was 2030-2035 or something.  Who knows what either group really has, though.  Maybe they both have more, maybe SA runs out sooner.



This is bullshit.  The Russian report says no known technology replacement currently exists and it's a large problem.  I do not think they're lying or that anyone has UFO technology they're keeping secret to fix everything.  The Nazis turned coal into fuel for vehicles in the war, and the US supposedly has something like 100 years of coal, but I don't think this is actually a viable method to power all the cars you see driving around today.  It would likely be better to just replace them with electric and use the coal to power plants to charge them.  

This is probably why the US is subsidizing the hell out of Elon Musk.  But, getting rid of gasoline and using coal to power literally everything would likely make every human habitat on earth resemble ecological disaster China, so I'm not sure how much of a solution that is.



No, Occam's Razor does NOT give you that conclusion for why they keep trying to ram carbon tax on people.  It doesn't whatsoever.  Mostly because you would need to believe there is a conspiracy among scientists, govt, liberal celebrities, etc, to falsify data, which might be the case, but Occam's razor doesn't give you that solution.  Occam's razor is of ZERO USE for figuring out most things that go on in govt.  You definitely don't figure out jews run the entire media and banks or that our entire foreign policy is based around benefiting their middle east cult using Occam's razor either, but that is the case.  The only people that deny that current state of affairs are idiots and shills.



This is wrong once again.  My original statement was talking about peak energy mainly in oil and natural gas sectors.  While it is possible you might be able to cover the entire surface of the planet with fusion reactors, you would likely not be able to attempt to start that task until around 2050 (and nobody even knows how viable they are).  Meanwhile, in the real world, conventional crude oil has been flatlined since 2004 and lower return on investment sources were substituted to try and offset that:






You keep repeating this nonsensical statement over and over.  There IS NO direct correlation between entropy and the 5 billion complex variables that hold human civilization together.  How did your infinitely expanding entropy variable prevent Rome from entering the dark ages?  It didn't.  You are trying to apply some oversimplified computer science/physics concept to a mass of violent monkeys known as humans thinking there is some correlation where none exists. 

And please don't try to claim it creates some sort of unstoppable trend line.  I don't care what the trend line is if the "temporary dip" off course is a 400 year dark age that's 7x longer than my lifespan.  It's like seeing Armstrong claim the "death of Marxism" occurs in 2083 LOL.  It's like, what the fuck are you even talking about Armstrong?  Next he's gonna say don't buy gold until post-2083 since Marxism is bearish for metals.