Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 246. (Read 647183 times)

The coming dollar short vortex will obliterate that resistance.

I feel many problems are due to the morphing of capitalism into something approaching it being predatory. While the socilaism model has reached its end point in terms of aging populations, unfunded liabilities, tax revenue and attitude towards government, part of Europe's problems stem from behaviour of banks, the failure to hold them accountable and a flawed economic theory; then when everything goes to shit attack the poor.

Take the Euro area problems. French banks especially leveraged up massively on euro govt bonds. They had gone from getting a 15% coupon for French govt bonds pre-Euro down to basically a flat few percent on the introduction of the Euro.  To offset this reduced rate they just levered up enormously so that their exposure was 4-5x that of total French GDP. All was well until the market went back to pricing these bonds as individual countries & not as a bloc (hello crisis). With crisis comes the risk of contagion: if my Greek bonds are blowing out I need to sell something to cover so I'll sell Ireland bonds before you do and you'll try to sell Ireland before me and if not Ireland, then Portugal etc etc.

So the ECB, instead of injecting liquidity like US/Uk central banks did just tried to target inflation as it didnt think its mandate was to act as a CB. All the economic neoliberal models predicted how people would react if one of the GDP inputs was changed so they said 'its the govt spending' that is the problem and launched into austerity. But fuck me, lo and behold, it turns out that stripping a pensioner of their income doesnt stimulate the economy, it makes it contract even further so we saw EU wide GDP crater when it was supposed to rise. Until Draghi finally stepped in and flooded the EU area with liquidity and hyperbole.

The main stumbling block with adopting the SDR global system seems to be political, whether or not the US or China or whoever will be willing to cede monetary control to the IMF.

It will be interesting to see how Trump's stated preference for a more peaceful US military plays out. Will Russia / China call his bluff? I think it is likely but a dangerous ploy; would a de-escalation in the baltics from NATO tempt Russia to claw back some territory?

Collapse of the socialism economy is normally congruent with the rise in popular outcry and fanatical support for socialism. An example is Germany's devolution into the Wiemar Republic followed by full scale megadeath and eugenics with the Socialist-Fascist Nazi final stage self-destruction.

From the Understand Everything Fundamentally essay of mine which CoinCube had cited in the OP of the Economic Devastation thread:



Edit: the USA appears to be unique in that the conservatives are strong enough (and have millions of guns which they won't willingly turn over to any government edict), that the socialists can't ram this devolution down the throat of the conservatives. So it appears Trump has been placed into the office so that the conservatives can be blamed for the economic collapse to further divide the liberals and conservatives. I think the plan is to bring a war of attrition against the conservatives by isolating them. Russia and China are just pretending to be the friend of the conservatives in order to weaken the USA via divide-and-conquer, but when the war comes they will be against the conservatives. It might be a psyops war, so obfuscated. I need to study and think more about this. I don't have a complete conceptualization yet. The elite know that the gun toting conservatives in the USA are a big stumbling block that must be weakened on their way to a new world order. Perhaps it is merely sufficient to create disarray and fragmentations, so that the different factions have no choice but to accept the IMF SDR system after the global monetary reset circa 2018 or so.

Is it collapse of socialism or rising of socialist revolution from his post of 2 days ago? Can't have both.

Fascinating blog post from Armstrong!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/the-collapse-of-socialismmarxism/

Note that chart is the collapse of socialism, so that rise you see after 2018, is the rise of the move to private assets and out of public assets. It is not a rise in the economy of USA/Europe. Make sure you understand this, so you don't commit a category error.

That chart seems to indicate that Europe's socialism will be in full collapse mode by 2018.

I think these are salient points in the short term. The interplay between dollar, gold and bitcoin will be interesting. Might be able to add that interest in bitcoin spikes when the 'ban cash' trial balloons are floated (along with gold).

Regarding our discussion about the cultural divide in the USA, the culture of the youth in Ohio first-hand seem to be rational and leaning conservative on the economy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HX5Z51T6dHs

http://www.infowars.com/proof-the-trump-protests-utilizing-paid-professional-protesters-financed-by-george-soros/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/the-new-american-communist-revolution/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/americas-current-economy/the-color-purple-not-the-movie-but-a-movement/

I am not sure if the stampede into the dollar will take down Bitcoin. I do know dollar up, gold down, but Bitcoin has been somewhat anti-correlated to gold.

Bitcoin can also be a conduit for people to move capital out of where it is, and into dollars, e.g. China.

Bitcoin is likely to move to an ATH in 2017 with the news about Lightning Networks (LN) coming closer to live. But I think it will be a "buy the news, sell the outcome", because Bitcoin's scalepocalyse isn't going to be solved, and LN will be a masterful clusterfuck failure.

We'll need a replacement for Bitcoin waiting in the wings...

By "he", I meant Rickards, not Armstrong.


I just mean that we need mainstream markets, so that we have enough liquidity to minimize the control the elite would have by collapsing the financial system they control. I think of black markets as being illegal, distrusted by most, and heavily fought by TPTB.

The elite do not fight what is popular, rather they try to co-opt it. Because they know it is futile to stop people from that which they can't stop people, e.g. having sex. Instead they co-opt sex with their control over media.

Bitcoin is co-opted by economies-of-scale in mining because proof-of-work is not the correct design. These mining interests are blocking larger block size, because unlimited block sizes means bankruptcy for all miners when minted rewards get closer to zero. We have a technical problem combined with a political problem, but the political problem originates from the choice of proof-of-work as the consensus mechanism. I explain this in great detail in my white paper. The following are applicable:

http://btcmarketwatch.com/2015/08/the-blockstream-business-plan/
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16837201

Add this from my whitepaper:



As for the masses trusting and desiring crypto-currency and wanting all their data in a decentralized consensus ordering database (not necessarily a blockchain if we don't use blocks), Steem(it) already demonstrated some innovations and we need to tweak the aspects that Steem(it) did incorrectly.

Taking money from the collective and paying it out to participants via voting is an incorrect paradigm for onboarding the masses, for reasons I have already explained in my blogs on Steem(it) and also in the Steem thread in the Altcoin Discussion forum. The consensus system employed by Steem(it) is DPoS and although this is an improvement over Satoshi's proof-of-work, DPoS has some technical weaknesses around asynchony liveness and is subject to a winner-take-all power vacuum on stake control of the delegate witness and the fees they are paid.

My design fixes all of this. Yet the implementation is vaporware at this moment.

As you all know, I have a problem with my liver and digestive system. For example, I just woke up from 8 hours sleep, but I feel exhausted and lacking of energy to think clearly upon waking up. It is as if I didn't sleep. But if I don't sleep, it gets even worse, where I am in delirium. Yet the chronic toxicity causes insomnia and other difficult symptoms such as Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (which basically is like your head is drooping on the keyboard and can't think clearly). So there is no way that in this health condition, that I am coding and working with the energy and efficiency of my healthy self. I not even producing at 1/5 the rate that I would without such a health problem. Any way, I am limping along as best as I can, and will be in Singapore at the National University Hospital which has research department and entire building for Hepatology and Gastroenterology. And they have research doctors there who had originally been schooled and trained in the UK. So I go there in 2nd of January to get a proper diagnosis and hopefully also some sort of treatment. I can't know in advance if the problem will require surgery or if it is microflora (bacterial) or what. They've got to look inside (endoscopy and MRI) and do lab tests that aren't available here in the Philippines. I wanted to go in November, but it didn't work because 1) I only have 9.5 BTC of funding and no medical insurance, so I am hoping for a higher BTC price by January, 2) the head of the entire department will be my doctor, but he is on vacation from end of November until Dec 19 and I couldn't arrange my exit clearance with immigration and the flights for early November and I don't want to go mid-November, because maybe not enough time to complete the treatment before he goes on vacation, 3) going around Xmas & New Years is prohibitively expensive for the flights & hotel, 4) my immigration fees and visa for Philippines is paid through January 13, so better to not waste that by leaving the country earlier.

So for example I will go jogging now, because that is what seems to give me a bit more energy. I have been tending to jog 2 - 3X per day. But it doesn't stop the yellow color and pain at my abdomen. There is something seriously wrong inside there at my liver and upper portion of the digestive system. In January, I will have documents I can scan and share so that no one will be able to think I was lying. Believe me, if I wasn't sick, I wouldn't writing anything here in these forums. I'd be having too much fun producing and making progress at a much faster rate. I am praying my problem can be resolved in January. Thus NUHS has also done FMT (fecal microflora transplants) as well as I am sure very expert in surgery if for example my organs in there are bound together after floating in stomach acid in 2012 due to the perforated ulcer I had at the time. However, one thing that is perplexing to me is that well before the perforated ulcer in 2012, even as early as 2009/10, I was having the symptoms of swollen feet and uncontrollable muscle contractions (especially in my feet) which I still get now and seem to be correlated with my gut problem. So perhaps my health problem is something viral or bacterial, which preceded and precipitated the perforated ulcer. January is a significant month in my life. I been in 4.5 years of utter hell healthwise. And since 2006 when someone I trusted and had known for many years gave me a very nasty strain of HPV that had me bed ridden for a month and never quite the same hence, I've been having autoimmunity symptoms. So maybe I am just destroyed. I will hope to find out in January. Nevertheless, I will release this crypto project even if I can't be cured. I will need to find another programmer if I am not going to get back my normal health. I will have to transition just to a thinker and adviser in that case. I have a plan B for that, which will involve a small ICO after making it to testnet, so I can hire a top notch programmer. Until January, I am trying to get as much work done as I can in this poor health condition.

Perhaps the black market will be the mainstream? Like USD in Argentina, USSR etc. It's illegal but both unstoppable and essential.

[/quote]


Looking forward to reading it too

Rickards thesis isn't dictated by a specific year iirc, but as a framework due to repeating cycle 98/08/18 crises (like you say, ironically the same premise as Armstrong who has been derided by the mainstream for years). He says that the elites (Lagarde, Draghi, Yellen etc) have published their plans in IMF & G20 (2014 Brisbane) footnotes and big parts of their 'solution' are - bail ins, lock outs (where money market funds suspend redemptions), bank withdrawal limits /closures.

CB's printed 4 trillion in paper post 08 and that has been leveraged up to 70 trillion in debt. Next time there's nowhere else to turn to.

Tried explaining this to a mate today. He is incredulous to the point of anger - 'there's no way the government will ever do that here' he says 'people will riot on the streets'. I tried to explain declining tax revenues, unfunded liabilities, aging populations and the effect of interest rate rises on sovereign debts and that anyway, rioting didnt stop it happening in Cyprus, Greece and now India. People are easily led and adapt to new norms very quickly, especially under threat.

Will be an interesting dynamic if the time comes - the growing distrust of governments, elites and media coupled with a system wide crisis. I told him its best to, at the very least, have an understanding of the possibilities and not get caught flat footed. That's why I have a little gold & bitcoin. His answer? Yeah well thats why I have my super (retirement money).

Oh well, I'm trying.

Hmm.  Rickards also thinks 2018 is when the bad stuff starts...

* * *

My point re black markets is that participants CHOOSE their currencies.  I am not saying anything about creating black markets, only noting that some of them already like BTC.  But, BTC seems too hard to use for the masses.

Actually, I look forward to seeing anything you have to release in 2017.  "Massive liquidity" sounds promising.

Now get back to work!  

He is saying that ~2018ish when the defaults go bezerk, the central banks will be trapped, and the global elite will close the financial system, so that the elites can buy up all the distressed corporations and assets, before they reopen the financial system.

Hard assets will preserve wealth long-term but they won't be liquid during that period:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16749910


For liquidity, you are going to need crypto-currency. And that is why you need crypto-currency with billions of users for massive liquidity. Bitcoin isn't going to get us there fast enough. That is why I will release the "Bitcoin killer" early 2017.

...

Gran amigo iamnotback wrote:

"OROBTC, if you want a community of political conservatives, would you find that any where in Latin American countries such as Peru? My visit to Colombia in 2001 lead me to believe Latinos are very liberal. The Catholic religion doesn't seem to make them conservative."

Latin Americans, IMO, are probably at least as receptive to FSA & SJW siren-calls as US Americans.  My very limited observations of Peru would be along your lines: liberal (in the modern, USA, Socialist meaning).

But, at least in Peru, few go to church anymore.  Reminds me of Italy, all these essentially abandoned churches with few people actually worshiping there.  More tourists.

* * *

In the Econ. Total. thread I mention a little about The Road to Ruin, the brand-new book by Jim Rickards.  I just started.  I will have lots more to write about it as I explore his ideas.

Of interest is that many of his ideas, so far anyway, parallel Armstrong's ideas.

Finally Armstrong starts to admit the globalist elite may be orchestrating:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/george-soros-the-man-trying-to-create-a-socialist-revolution/

Perhaps my many emails have finally reached him. He had argued before that Ukraine revolution was not manipulated.

I have a theory as to why Armstrong won't ever release the source code as open source:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/the-black-box/

I think he may be afraid that the elite could do then analysis to determine which data they need to manipulate in order to cause the model to give incorrect predictions. Imagine the world of 1984 where the State controls all data and it is all a lie.

Remember the liberal and conservative divide is mostly about whether one's idealism is about attaining perfection here on earth or in heaven respectively.

Those who are not strongly grounded in the importance of not trying to fix every problem with government, will naturally gravitate to socialism.

I suspect Rust Belt states are populated by those who believe collective organization via unions puts butter on the dinner table. I suspect they lean liberal.

I think most people in the world have a tendency toward liberal. Remember 1 Samuel 8, "we want to be like others and have a King to rule over us". The conservative philosophy is for those who want their communities to fend for themselves (within reason).

Clearly the Rust Belt states barely went for Trump. The core of the Bible Belt is between the Appalachian mountains and the Rockies, extending down into Texas, but not into Latino/Indian dominated west of Texas. There is apparently another offshoot of conservatives north of California (reaching into the northernmost portion of California), excluding the very populated zones. Some of the counties in Texas were 85% for Trump.

So pretty much along those lines is how I expect the USA to break up. The Rust Belt states will trend back to liberal since they don't have dominant conservatism. The conservatives will be forced out.


OROBTC, if you want a community of political conservatives, would you find that any where in Latin American countries such as Peru? My visit to Colombia in 2001 lead me to believe Latinos are very liberal. The Catholic religion doesn't seem to make them conservative.

My guess is the Bible Belt of the USA is last significantly concentrated bastion of true conservatism remaining on earth?

Note that a civil war which divides the two coasts of the USA, will debilitate the USA as an economic force in the world. Our economic strength was largely due to the Mississippi River for moving goods north to south and the access to both major oceans of the world. Although physical trade may be less significant in a future Knowledge Age.

"Hillary had a secret algorithm named "Ada" that guided the campaign's every decision."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/11/09/clintons-data-driven-campaign-relied-heavily-on-an-algorithm-named-ada-what-didnt-she-see/

New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado supplied the electoral votes to give those states to Hillary.  And the illegals just keep coming (for now...).

Pretty much rural everywhere went for Trump.

I am curious about the WHITE votes in PA, WI, MI and OH going forward. 

Have those guys who lost their jobs decided that the Dems are worthless?  That, for me, is the Big Enchilada Question.

Clicking the detailed view for each State reveals county-by-country results:

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

Interestingly N. California, most of Oregon, and all but the populated coastal area of Seattle area of Washington are all Trump zone.

Only rural areas Clinton won are where there are many Latinos on the southern border.

Rural and white was for Trump.