Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 271. (Read 647196 times)

So he created yet another account? We all know he's usually wrong with short term directions just like most ppl.. it's funny reading the predictions I make some money off of them

TPTB_need_war is not an idiot. In many ways he is the smartest here. The problem is, he is having the fixation that he can predict the BTC price, so he talks nonsense with regard to that. I pointed out several times in this thread how and why he is wrong about the BTC price, but he is not an idiot, and I am sure you know that.

This is what he wrote in February 2016:



https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/2017-the-great-alignment/

So a bull market in Gold is coming, probably into 2020 or beyond.
Lower gold prices this year are still possible though.

http://beforeitsnews.com/economics-and-politics/2011/09/gold-pricing-predictions-and-cycles-martin-armstrong-1123363.html

Armstrongs gold and market predictions in 2011 september

"The long-term view in gold recognizes that the current bullish trend in NY GOLD may be forming a major high at this time on a temporary basis. However, as long as this year closes ABOVE $1405.50, then it is possible that the current bullish long-term trend will continue next year where a new intraday high could still be made."

"However, if new intraday highs are NOT sustained next year, then 2011 may produce the major high on a closing basis as well as on a cyclical basis for the near-term. Since we do not has a spike high in a Phase Transition style high, it is unlikely that this high will be a major high long-term as was the case in 1980."

"The monthly chart illustrated here shows that we have made a slight Phase Transition spike and the oscillators are at the extreme upper-end warning a correction is needed to bring gold back in line. With September 15th being precisely 3.14 months from the turning point on the Economic Confidence Model, it is curious that other countries are suddenly coming to te rescue of Greece right on the day of the model."

2011 closed $1530, we closed above his $1405

No new highs were made so 2011 was a major high but not a Phase Transition style high.

So how i interpret this (as a not native english speaking), he would still see a Phase Transition Style high after the correction, that we have seen ?
We have had a large correction and broke the down trend 2016/2/1 this is 3.14 months after 2015.75 (confidence cycle) ;-)

I don't know what he predicts now for gold, still a lower bottom ?
What confuses me is that it seems he doesn't see a Phase Transition Style high anymore like some expect (Sinclair, Sprott, Rickards ...) ?

f.e. 1974 transition spike - low - 1980 Phase Transition style high  (6 years interval)
      2011 transition spike - low - 2017 spike ?

However, i don't believe anyone can predict what is going to happen and if history is going to repeat.
But just look at the gold price in any currency, long term it has always been in an uptrend, look at prices in f.e. £, € (different chart !), indian rupies... (www.xe.com) these charts all look bullish and show a reversal. Do technicals work all the time, sorry, no. How are fundamentals for gold ? Read the papers and look around, I would say good. EU policy is a disaster ! Some politicians are really nuts !

I bought my first gold in 2009 (12% yearly up in euro's), 2.5% of my personal wealth is in physical gold / silver, i recently added some more and will be adding platinum too (historically very low). I followed gold prices every day (kitco app on pc). I will probably add up to 10% (and possible remove some of my real-estate). All my business cash is going into bullion outside EU and bank system (www.orSuisse.be). I don't trust the banks. Deutsch Bank is toast, all day tv adds and twitter adds, yesterday they made a new offering here: 5% for a 3 month savings deposit. They are desperate for cash and customers.

DB might be the trigger for the next crisis.

go away you idiot.

Are you sure?

^^ $50/btc ... gee I wonder who wants to buy in cheaper? gawd do you guys ever give up? you missed the boat, deal with it.

I never said you should sell and wait for the dip. That is your decision to make. I also didn't say a V crash is certain, but rather contingent.

I didn't even get into counterparty risk of where to store your alternative value if one chooses to exit Bitcoin now in anticipation of lower prices later. You could definitely hold physical dollars ($20s not $100s) and probably be sure of being able to convert those back into BTC. But there are issues such as how much cash you can convert at a time and that does move you back through the anti-money laundering rigmarole.

Other options are to short Bitcoin. But timing is very critical and also exchange risk.

Personally if I still had any money (which I don't!) I would sell some BTC and hold dollars. Then I would prepare to buy gold < $1050 (probably $850ish) with the cash. Down the line I could convert that gold back to crypto again. If I got lucky to buy BTC < $150 with any of that cash, then I would do that.

In short, I'd diversify.

Not selling any of this deadcat bounce from $230 up to $470, is I think foolish. Always sell some of the rallies. Never HODL everything, except for heirlooms.

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Because everyone knows they can't trust a new untested technology. Gold has a couple 1000s years of reliability under its belt.

And people don't hold gold as an heirloom because it is a unit-of-account. They do it because it feels impressive in their hand, and they feel confident it will represent a store-of-value that will outlive their offspring. No one can claim that with a straight face about BitCON.

People are holding BTC in the expectation it will be worth more and spendable on the Internet during and beyond the crisis we face. This is why Bitcoin needs to decline to $50 in order to scare some of them into selling. Once all the weakest of the strong hands have capitulated and their confidence broken, then we will be ready for a new speculative fever in BitCON again.

We need many people to hate/dismiss Bitcoin again like they did after the crash from $30, to reset the speculative opportunity again. Speculative pumps are created by people who can buy very cheap. Remember this, BitCON is not an ideology. It is a speculation. We tend to forget why people buy BitCON (because they conflate a lot of ideological tinfoil hat crap into their muddled thought process[1]).

Ditto gold.

I still think the low is not yet done. But I might be wrong.


[1] Look I used to do that too. I now realize why I lost my 18,000oz of silver was partially due to being irrational about ideological tinfoil hat type fears and thought processes. I also lost it for other unrelated reasons, but the tinfoil hat delusion shit was one of the reasons.

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Your rent is not priced in BTC. Please look up the definition of unit-of-account.


That doesn't stop me from handing it down to my offspring as an heirloom. Eventually it becomes legal again.

Gold can't go "poof". Bitcoin can, just by the future government control over the protocol is able to turn off your number. You'll never get it back.


And Bitcoin has more upside, but from $50 it has 10X more upside than from $500.

Don't pretend has suddenly become less volatile. It is only a $6 bullion mcap.

Agree with most of your analysis, except the bolded part.

Delaying the rate rise superficially seems to help Europe, by containing any outflows into the US, however the current central banker theory of 'less is more' works the other way. Central banking has become a way to move by expectation. The delay, likely organised, strengthened a Euro already suffering under negative interest rates.

It was a non rate rise tactic to help China through 'less is more' ie, everyone sort -of expected the US dot plot to be 4 rises. Not strengthening by raising weakens the USD (which had strengthened considerably recently and put massive pressure on the Yuan peg). So, by not meeting expectations the Fed has effectively weakened the USD and relieved the pressure on the Yuan.

Now, notice Draghi and Kuroda both also missed expectations in quick succession ('less is more' - less easing, less negative than expected). This has the effect of strengthening their respective currencies v the USD. In this situation, China hasn't uttered a word but it's major trading partners have all appreciated their currencies, which helps the Yuan which was the most under pressure after August and January.

This deal seems to have been struck at the G20 - the Shanghai Accord.

I have said the bottom may not be in yet for gold and Bitcoin.

The timing was originally 2016, but what has changed is that the US Fed decided to delay raising interest rates to try to help Europe. And then the elite hatched this plan to have a BREXIT vote so as to reaffirm the U.K.'s commitment to the EU. This BREXIT victory for the EU, coupled with the delay in raising interest rates, is causing the confidence to swing temporarily back to the Euro (away from the dollar) and is giving a deadcat bounce to speculation markets (which require general liquidity because they are all about harvesting the funds of stoopid greater fool n00bs).

But this delay is causing pension plans to go bankrupt and is causing all the excesses of debt to move well above nosebleed levels:

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So what we have is a massive Minsky Moment being tightly wound like a spring fully compressed that is going to explode once the Euro peaks (perhaps as high as 1.24). We are waiting for the BREXIT to drive this counter-trend, deadcat rally to its extreme.

Then upon the election of Trump in November, coinciding with that global liquidity contagion Minsky Moment as interest rates start to move and the dollar starts gaining again, then roughly Q1 2017 (but anytime after BREXIT peak is still possible in later 2016), we are going to see a massive liquidity crunch where everyone will pile on short and overshoot to the bottom on every asset except US dollars. Trump will drive a desire to hold dollars as he will threaten trade and currency wars against China.

Trump will win because he will move more to the center of right after he secures the Republican nomination. He will become nicer and people will see him in a more positive light. And he will destroy Hellary's reputation with his skilled way of attacking. He had to appeal to the hard right in order to stop the entrenched power players in the Republican party from stealing the nomination from him. He might even appoint Bernie Sanders as Vice President.

Thus the selloff of gold and Bitcoin as well (and altcoins to near 0), but this will be very brief V bottom just like in 2008/2009, then the world's capital will stampede into the dollar, dollar denominated assets such as US stock markets and trophy real estate, and also gold and CC will swing back to bullish mode with the final bottom finally reached.

The latest essay from Armstrong is very important:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/trading-volumes-declines-as-hoarding-rises-due-to-uncertainty/


Edit note Trump is very pro-NSA and even supports laws breaking encryption. He appointed Doug Christie who is very totalitarian about NSA (go back and listen to the early Republican debates). I could see Trump potentially becoming very anti-Bitcoin especially with the mining centralization in China. However if Bitcoin is really the House of Morgan's baby, then Trump will be obliged to not attack Bitcoin.

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Correct. Agreed. But remember that comes after the V bottom liquidity crunch. A liquidity crunch is not a safe haven move. It is a liquidity survival carry trade reversal on auto-pilot. Human decisions are not in play.


Exactly because their leveraged obligations and margin calls are in cash. And that is not Bitcoin "cash".


Sorry you are wrong.

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Well I lately more and more realize that Bitcoin is a funnel where n00bs come in to buy and miners cash out. The stalwarts don't buy more, as they are few in number and already have their big portion.

So an interruption in the stream of n00bs might have a domino deleveraging effect, since many people loan their BTC short to earn extra revenue.

Leverage may be hiding where you think you see only HODLers.

Also with the halving and marginal miners not wanting to turn their ASICs into door stops, they may be in a more strained position and need to deleverage in a contagion.

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If they fear counterparty risk, they will cause a stampede and cause counterparty defaults.

The slowdown in buying from n00bs, can cause the price to drop, which will cause the enriched shorts to pile on (cash out their initial investment and gamble the profits) overshooting to the lower low bottom. Plus all the copycats chasing the trend especially with the "world is falling down" hysteria.

V bottom on steriods. Buy the bottom same as in 2009.

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I have a triangulation of three sources:

1. Martin Armstrong's computer and database.
2. Michael Pettis's (China expert, widely respected) calculations (and he has been correct several times already).
3. The charts showing China is nearing the Minsky Moment:


The new username is temporarily forced by a 10 day ban.

...

Armstrong comes out swinging on a New Jersey proposal to guarantee public sector employee pensions in their state constitution. 

Like Illinois did.  Illinois is well known for its desperate financial condition, state bankruptcy (in some form) is likely.  SIX other states protect PUBLIC employee pensions (but not private sector employees).  Those states might be among the next to go down the tubes, will NJ join them? 

Read all about it:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/new-jersey-to-follow-illinois-down-the-drain/

I know it  for Gold only. It's the "last" column on the quotes settlements. I assume it's for the other commodities the same. Martin has wrote about this yesterday  in his private blog.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_settlements_futures.html#tradeDate=05/06/2016

I'd also like to know which data source he reverences with his forecasts. see below

Does Martin use the wrong numbers?

In the private blog he is talking:

"In gold, Friday's closing was admirable at 1289.7, but not good enough." (may 6th)

But the closing numer is 1294.0
This was also shown in his market watch an here on the comex dates
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/p.../gold.html

What is going on here?

I realised on an other chart that the close of the last hour of a trading session is different than the day closing. Is a closing of the end of the week maybe different than on friday?

An other one:
He also posted on may 6th:
"Last week's closing was 1285.60" --> for gold nearest futures
But it was 1290.5 shown in the comex http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/p.../gold.html

iam realy confused

Thank you ...now get back to work, time is short.

2018 Kaboom!

https://www.docdroid.net/file/download/i3f8uVF/stanley-druckenmiller-the-end-game.pdf (see page 7)

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21698240-it-question-when-not-if-real-trouble-will-hit-china-coming-debt-bust


Butt is a bit sore, but it is from sitting in the programming chair 18 hours a day.

It is highly unlikely to see gold under one thousand ever again, http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/sharia-gold-standard-2-trillion-in-assets-could-send-price-soaring/

I don't believe it is, Sadiq Khan is Labour's candidate. I think there are issues with some vote counts in some boroughs, but it could be decided by now, I haven't checked. Diane Abbot is quite the piece of work too though

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-tipping-point/


The $250,000 fine is so high ostensibly because in order to have the desired effect, logically it has to be greater than the cost of giving free welfare to the rapefugees.