I like BIG moves in the market. With MA, it allows for an easier and definitive way of testing his ECM/Socrates forecasting.
We saw a stock market crash on 12 March 2020, the WORST since 1987-89, for many major indices. Did MA forecast this where it was major enough that he really should have? It would also mean his ECM/Socrates really does give true buy/sell signals, helping his readers/subscribers benefit from his or his "supercomputer's" insights.
Let's take a look at some very old blog posts, where Socrates forecasts things
to the day, much like the famed 1987 crash that Socrates/the ECM (allegedly) achieved.
May 23, 2014 With the yearly model on the US share market NOT lining up with 2015.75, it appears at this time that we are more likely going to deal with a major long-term advance. The 2016 target will be 31.4 years from the start of the breakout with this new Private Wave – 1985. Therefore, we do have the potential for that Phase Transition. If we then back off into a low for 2020, then a full-blown 13 year rally may unfold and that will take us into the final high in 2032.95.https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/2013-august-7th-what-was-it-nothing-or-a-watershed-shift/Jun 5, 2014https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/liquidity-collapse-fatca-manipulations-or-both/Now a 13 year decline in the economy points to the low in 2020. Sorry – it is precisely on schedule.
Verdict: Unknown at this stage. Appears to have correctly called the 2020 low - though did not give any date to make it tradeable, only the year and also contradicts this date (year) in other blog posts - and we won't know until end of 2032 if this forecast is correct.
Jul 2, 2014https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/when-will-the-monetary-system-crack/I am dealing with this question in the coming Gold Report. However, suffice it to say the crisis years are 1932 – 1963 – 1995 – 2026 based upon the Pi cycle.
Verdict: Surely 2020 IS a crisis year? This is already historic because of coronavirus, so why no mention of March 2020 as a major decline in global markets AND the global economy? 2020 is worse, both economically and socially, than anything that happened in 1963 or 1995. Yet Socrates did not forecast it and it contradicts the above date (2020) given in other blog posts. Still not tradeable.
Nov 3, 2013the Democrats are demanding significant increases in taxes and they intend to get rid of the Republicans in 2014 and will rape the economy thereafter setting the stage for a far worse economic contraction 2015-2020.https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/interest-rates-the-bell-curve/Nov 4, 2015Indeed, 2015.75 was a major turning point that was the BEGINNING of a serious decline into 2020.05https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/2015-75-seems-to-be-on-target/Oct 16, 2014The more money that concentrates in government debt the higher the likelihood of the bloodbath 2015.75 into 2020. This will wipe out institutions from banks to pension funds like never before.https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/so-where-is-the-bubble/Verdict: This never happened. MA was wrong.
Nov 13, 2015So from the Roosevelt devaluation of the dollar in 1934, we should see the monetary system change in 2020https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/market-manipulation-confusion/Feb 9, 2016We are heading into a major crisis where the only thing that will survive the transition to a new world currency (that is coming as early as 2018, but probably by 2020) will be private assetshttps://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/the-world-view/Verdict: 2020 is now back on the forecast docket again and a new world currency is coming 2020. It did not happen in 2018 and conceivably COULD happen in 2020 based on what is going on with coronavirus. We will know by end of the year. Still, there is no advice given on what to do IF this forecast is correct.
May 18, 2015This current wave of 2015.75 is 25.8 years from the 1989.95 event. This is the wave that should likely begin the collapse of socialism, which I have dubbed “Big Bang”. This should culminate in a major political reform 31.4 years from 1989.95 and that will be right after the conclusion of this wave in 2020 – 2021.35https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/the-collapse-of-socialism-its-our-turn-up-to-bat/Verdict: Major political reform is possible in 2020 where government have let down their citizens owing to bad pandemic planning AND where politicians are also getting the disease and possibly dying as a result. So political reform is more likely this year than the previous 20, at least in the West. End of the year we will get a better gauge, but 2021.35 will either prove or disprove this.
Jan 27, 2016We certainly seem due for a pandemic, which likely will occur between 2017 and 2020 thanks to the abuse of antibiotics... We are in a very strong upward cycle for disease. This will get worse as we enter the 2017 to 2020 timeframe.https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/plague-cycle-moving-into-peak-2017-2020/Verdict: Yes, MA was correct, but gave himself a wide margin of error. However, coronavirus was not because of abuse of antibiotics. He also did not call a major global economic meltdown because of this. Why not? Once again, not possible to trade from, not least as no specific dates were given.
Jan 5, 2018Therefore, to answer the question do we face an OMG event with famine? The answer is yes! The worst of this may come during the 2020-2024 period. I have reported that it appears the next 8.6-year wave on the ECM maybe setting up for a rally in commodities. That will include food.https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/climate-change-is-the-an-omg-event/Verdict: Looking more likely what with coronavirus seriously affecting supply chains, plus the current solar cycle being very weak, harming crop harvest. However, MA never mentioned supply chains would be affected because of mass illness, which is looking increasingly likely with coronavirus. Moreover, we need to wait until 2024 to understand if this forecast was correct.
The above illustrates perfectly the problem with MA. A lot of it is ambiguous or just throwing out random dates of likely scenarios and then claiming success for those hypothetical lucky darts that hit the bulls eye. There is never ANYTHING that is tradeable and he appears no better or worse than any well-informed analyst, who also give opinions, but never any buy or sell instructions.
And yet, the feverishly pro-MA posters on this board claim MA does exactly the latter, while never providing any evidence.The claims Socrates forecasts things to the day is clearly bogus, otherwise where was the target date of 12 March 2020?
There was no target date, yet it was one of the key dates - likely of this decade - for a serious downturn in global markets and economies. Also no mention that an incurable virus would be the cause.
So MA provides vaguely interesting
contrarian opinions that allow for someone to think about future events. He and his bogus Socrates service exist to pay him a very nice retirement, while cleverly sidestepping the legal conditions of his jail release.
Quite simply, MA is TV. All noise, somewhat entertaining, but the content totally missable and not of any importance to ones life. To better understand this, simply re-read the above posts from MA and ask yourself two very simple questions:
1. Could I have traded this?
2. Would I have made or lost money?
If answers to the above is not favourable, then you know MA is "TV". Entertaining, but a total waste of time and it certainly won't make you wealthier unless you ARE the one sat behind the screen, as MA is, rather than in front of it, as you are, consuming his
worthless content.
At $2,750 for a WEC ticket and $15-150+ for subs and reports, who IS the winner in all of this? Tough one...