Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 334. (Read 647196 times)

Even I have expressed my doubts, I cannot rule out that he found what he claims for. Unfortunately for me, this can only be proven via the usual method: Just wait and see what happens. In any case, the story is a bit weird if you're a sceptic, and know a bit more than basics of forensics data recovery. For instance, I've seen a hard disk giving up its data after a fire, and with some part of it destroyed (!). Never thought it was possible, but there's cognitive techniques that may "guess" what's there even if it's not.

I also don't rule out he's a practical genius. Like "adding everyone's mind here together to match his", genius. On the other hand, maybe he just got lucky enough to put some random puzzle pieces into the right order and was just smart enough to see the big picture. Works that way too. In any case, if I was in his place, I'd definitely go for bigger things. Money (the field he was onto up for 3 decades) tends to change. I'm very curious to see if he "sees" the (possible) upcoming change to crypto. He just seems to ignore the basics here. Or he just gets old and stubborn... like me and you.

Edit: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/24/permanent-qe-theory-gaining-backers.html
After all, (at least) one of us could be right... (or wrong)!  

klee, Armstrong may be that good. He said he had an algorithm on his machine copy that destroyed itself (overwrote its own data 7 times) when it detected it was being tampered with. But yeah that one is hard to fathom. Nevertheless if he spent $0.1 - 1billion on data (as he claims inflation adjusted) and had even audio tapes of many of the NY Club market manipulations (which I've seen an official SEC letter confirming these tapes were conveniently destroyed when the twin towers fell on 9/11).

Given the fees he was raking in from advising corporations with his model, one might assume he spent a lot on security. In that case, yes I think one could make it very difficult for the NSA. Give me $10 million and 5 - 10 year period to have prepared over time to spend on security, and I could probably make it impractical for the NSA to intercept my work.

Nevertheless it is still difficult to fathom, because you need subcontractors and they can be infiltrated.

Armstrong is one really strange or unique man that stands out from all others in our era. This man claims he was the hedge fund manager for the Japanese postal retirement fund in the $trillion range back in the 1980s! Apparently that was more than the USA national debt which is what I think he wrote (haven't double checked that).

About your M.S., I will have a reply in the Economic Totalitarianism thread... in one word why the hell are you (we) not drinking Yakult! (well it was here all time in front of my face in every grocery store here and I ignored it for 3 years because it looked like a local product to me and was so sweet and I thought it was nonsense). Something significant happened to me yesterday. I will explain...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9881885

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22132181

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21143526

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17944834

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12562457

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lactobacillus_casei


http://www.yakultusa.com/#faq

Bold part. I disagree.

Mostly because i feel you're clustering of all 54 african countries and different economic regions misinforms your judgement.

There are opportunities in Africa - LOTS! if you can take off your tinted glasses.

Sub Saharan Africa, East Africa for instance.

I was MS before the nuts unfortunately. Nuts alone themselves cannot cause MS (unless I suppose if you are mega dosing for a considerable amount of time). Also I was not fasting back then.
I was having eggs & bacon for breakfast when I was in keto and had severe diarrhoea.

It is not simple, you know it.

My first MS symptoms may have appeared as back as when I was a child or at least it was the vulnerable nervous system I had that was easily compromised later on.

The first indisputable ones were late 1990 early 2000. I had some very stressful life events that I felt they actually cause my neurons burn.

Degenerative diseases (Alzheimer, Parkinson, Huntington, autoimmune, cancer etc) don't have a single cause.
There is a genetic susceptibility (different to every individual) for one of them. Then we fuck up our lifestyle (stress, food, exercise, toxins) which affect our weak point in two ways.
Both in direct biochemical/metabolic/molecular pathways AND altering our epigenome.

When you want to reset you both have to combat the damages and reverse the epigenetic changes.

This is very difficult and it needs time.

Anyway, we hijack this MA thread.

Talking about MA, how do you comment that in his movie he keeps talking about government wanting his code, I mean wtf, do we really think that if NSA wanted his code/data they could not get them? As if they had to keep him 11 years in jail to give it to them..

How can we get a guy seriously when HE is the one promoting conspiracy theories (not me) and on the one hand saying how NSA is so powerful (I think I saw posts like this in his blog, maybe I am wrong) and on the other the same entity not being able to crack his systems..

Why do I always write about something Armstrong will write about a couple of days before he does.

Remember I mentioned Texas is like its own country and the Texans are very proud and also that the USA will likely break up into factions:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37467

That slide is remarkable.

The hyperbull usually comes after all weak longs are shaken out. I suspect it will fall here before it goes up ifmits going hyper.. Either way its too risky imo, if no hyper bull comes your left holding the bag at the top.

Thats why you have to think twice when trading, if market gives you the opportunity and makes you think you found a steal, chances are your the sheep being slaughtered.

And yes 2011 was when i was sayimg to buy, as it was going down, not up. Thats what smart money does. i spotted the M forming, long term technically it was a buy too with solid expectancy.

The yen is another story, they should have let it bottom naturally around 60. Instead they decided to manipulate and created free money for big whales. Now yen will be worthless because of the game they played. Intervention is essiest way to kill a market. So i expect uj to go up yes but on yen weakness. Same as chf, noone is holding usd in swiss banks to avoid taxes anymore, their economy isnt as strong and they intervened too, chf going to shite aswell.

First they signed the plaza accord in mid 80s and got caught in the Usa trick to devalue. They paid for it by deflation. Now they will be inflated away to oblivion, hey you get what you ask for.

So in short the ship has sailed, and statistically you cant do anything about it. Those that got in at right time have free tickets to the show with no risk. Everyone else must pay to play.

Thanks a lot for this link. That made me search for this fun fact:

During Tokyo's property bubble, the grounds of the Imperial Palace (1.32 square miles) were valued higher than the entirety of all the real estate in California. Japan's stock market was worth more than America's.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/2891993/Oriental-risks-and-rewards-for-optimistic-occidentals.html

Absurdity. That's what we're looking for. If we see a global concentration of wealth in America in the same way that it concentrated in Japan, then we won't merely have a "strong" dollar; there will be absurdity.

Some significant percentage of 9 trillion in US denominated loans will be destroyed as emerging market corporate debt is defaulted upon. Meanwhile, trillions of dollars from Europe, Japan, etc. will flow into the US because there's nowhere else to go. Japanese corporations alone are holding trillion of dollars worth of yen.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21620203-japanese-and-south-korean-firms-are-worlds-biggest-cash-hoarders-hurts-their

Correct me if I'm wrong but we haven't seen these trillions moving out of Japan in the way that MA said will happen. And we haven't seen US retail investors pouring money into stocks yet. Retail participation is low.

First we must see some danger signs that the capital concentration in the US is becoming absurd before we start buying gold and bitcoin and what have you. As I said, bitcoin mining is going to be a wonderful way for countries with cheap energy and screwed-up currencies to acquire hard currency (by dumping bitcoin for USD).  

And potentially end up having to give the EU $100,000 in fines because your house violated global warming or some other regulation. Or who knows what. I think touching anything in dysfunctional Europe is a liability of unknown extent. Europe is not going to bottom and come back. It is on its death march for next decades. Every thing productive will run away from Europe for decades. Everything that stays will die. It will be waves of awakening to this fact, that will drive more and more stampede out of Europe and cause that which remains to grow more and more dysfunctional and totalitarian.

Note there may exceptions within Europe. A blanket statement is never going to be correct.


That is not true. Ever heard of the Dust Bowl? At the end stage of Rome, the population abandoned their land and walked away. We have another Little Ice Age starting.

Also Europe is in such a quagmire with social obligations and no means to pay for it, of course it must go where the remaining wealth is to extract it. Land owners who can't move their asset.


Let's hope the EU doesn't declare hunting in that soon-to-be bioreserve a regulated activity. Don't you see they are taking over your country. The large capitalists want to make sure you can't eat unless you eat their factory produced GMO food. They will regulate you into no other options. You'll see this more clearly as everything turns down more in Europe.

My thesis is much more bearish on Europe than the USA, because Europe has no capability to resist. The USA will end up breaking up into different factions because some Americans are armed and can resist. Europeans can do nothing but bend over and take it deep.

---

Armstrong is not predicting that nonsense about end of world due to Shemitah. He has noted some similarity in the debt forgiveness cycle and the business cycle. That is all.

You forgot that Germans never let anyone disturb their orderly orderness and they persist to the million eugenics end because they never admit they are wrong. They still don't admit they were wrong for taking your gold (Greece).

No way. The Germans will grind Europe into the dirt again. Humans don't change. The future rhymes with the past.

Besides there are very powerful vested interests that want to bring the world to its knees in order to bring about the new world order of centralized control. Destruction of the nation-states as a concept is crucial to this plan.

A potential strong lead on where you M.S. came from. More on this soon in the Economic Totalitarianism thread where I was discussing health since the Corporate State is waging war on our health.

My experience is fasting has been a fool's diversion. I've made a major breakthrough discovery!

Imagine what you've been doing to your digestive tract feeding it poisons and starving it of a healthy mucus lining. Toxins thus end up in your bloodsteam instead of contained in your digestive tract and thus our (yours and mine and every other person suffering chronic autoimmunity illness) immune system kills the cells that have taken up those toxins. It ain't rocket science.

(Dude a proper breakfast is a free range egg yolk, some raw wild tuna, some fermented drink with good bacteria, white rice, and some sweet potato. Coffee and nuts for the most important meal of the day     No wonder you are sick! Abusing nuts (and coffee beans!) as a staple food as if we have the same digestive enzymes as squirrels, instead partaking nuts as at most a weekly snack food. But I did the same sort of stupid shit because of having the same type of job as you and we are both suffering the similar illness because of it)

I believe he wrote around 0.8 dollars per Euro is the target.

I don't remember what he wrote about the Yen, but if Japan is determined to print away, it could go deviate from the more moderate Euro outlook.

Crypto hasn't bottomed yet because are headed into a contagion to kick off the Sovereign Big Bang and crypto is not liquid. The only reason to buy crypto is to speculate. Long speculation hides when contagion strikes and short speculators pile on. Ditto gold.

Gold and BTC will find a bottom when the smart shorts start covering. Armstrong has projected this as Spring 2016 for gold and thus I expect roughly the same for crypto.

You want to be in USD right now (you could flirt with the bond bubble but I wouldn't as it is crowded trade and you are a late comer!), preparing to the buy the US stock markets once Armstrong has called the bottom. You will cycle out of these back into crypto in 2016.

macsga, here the point I was making up thread about what is chaotic in the micro is not chaotic from the perpective of the macro. The strange attractor occurs due to resonance at a relative perspective formed in foundational (e.g. historic as one form of) data (you have no perspective without foundational data, i.e. your priority senses as a human). Whereas from the perspective of the Milky Way galaxy, the events on earth that are predictable on our lifetime scales would appear to be noise and chaotic in terms of formations of solar systems and galaxies...

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37498

Here's Armstrong's conference from Feb of 1999.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zej5sM6y6Cs&list=PLSc_kTXIYG1RwiZdw57_V_uHlNXk9-xb9

He has a good anecdote about 'bubble tops' (just after 19:00), when share markets rise up to 40% above previous highs in a short space of time, ( this gives an insight of what might be like after a rush into USD and US shares post 2015.75)

This happened in Japan in 89, and he explains that many Japanese lost a lot during the 87 crash (on stocks, bonds and real estate) and so they began taking their capital back to Japan. Then they realised they didnt have a good place to put it, so it went into their stocks and real estate. All this money from around the world began concentrating in Japan and shares subsequently jumped 40% from their 87 highs into their 89 collapse.

The "hyperbull" period at the very end of a bull market is the period with the meat of the gains. Look at the Chinese stock market in 2014 vs. in the first half of 2015. Look at bitcoin in September-October 2013 versus November 2013.

At its start, the dollar index was created with 100 being the normal price.


It's currently at 96.269. We have to keep in mind that around 2011 the dollar was WEAK, not average. I visited Tokyo in 2011. 80 yen for 1 dollar when I was there. It was painful. So now being at 120 seems like some huge jump but it's really not. If I'm reading MA correctly, he's talking about the near-destruction of the EUR and YEN, not just the dollar index returning to 100. He's talking about the USD being the last safe place to go. If that's the case, then we're only getting started.

You might say bitcoin is battered enough, but I think the bitcoin battering is only getting started. Bitcoin will take a huge hit if China keeps devaluing. If China keeps devaluing the yuan, mining bitcoin become a way to turn cheap Chinese electricity into strong USD and you'll see more Chinese miners emerge and more of them will immediately dump BTC for USD.

So not only will you miss the meat of the dollar's gains (when 1 dollar gets, say, 300 yen) by buying crypto now, but you'll also be holding crypto bags when bitcoin is at <100.

If you own a *really* big house that probably cost you more than 1M, you should have the money to pay for your taxes as well. I don't find it particularly sane that some folks have to pay for their pools special tax that goes back 4-5 years, but common people, say, for a mid-class family (with no big house and pool) life is (still) affordable and they can pay for their real estate taxes (if one of them still has a job!).

To give you a perspective: We live in a house that's been about 25y old. Properly renovated, painted and restored only one time since it's been built. We must pay about 350eur tax per year for it.

Nope.. Im saying the writing on the wall was written long ago smart money got in usd a few yrs ago accumulating. We dont know if it will go hyperbull or not, statistically its not as good risk reward here and we dont know when the final crash will happen, btc has been in consoldation for much longer and is up and coming, it is the cloest thing to ideal money we have. Factoring it all in seems btc is safer to me.

How is the real estate tax situation in Greece?

Ah, I'm nowhere near that direction...

I believe our only option -as a family- is to stay put where we are (we're in a small town of Greece anyway). It's rather difficult for us to starve to death, we own a small land and have our own house. As a plus, me and my son are rather good archers so, I guess we will have our chance on getting our hands on some wild boar (we have a lot on the mountains here)...

macsga

I would advise to only invest in S America if you already have plenty of money, and you need diversification.  Managing property is not all that easy.  You need people there you can trust (consider any country where you have trusted relatives or, maybe, friends).  And property could be taxed highly there as well. 

Africa?  Forget it IMO.

Asia might be a possibility...  Nice beach-front property in Vietnam (if legal) or the Philippines (ask TPTB) might work.  All those rich Chinese are going to need vacation rentals.