Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 339. (Read 647062 times)

I guess different observers can interpret lines on a chart in different ways but I pretty much see the same conclusion. Both show several occasional outlier peaks against a longer term trend of rate declines.

I found the behavior of the long-term/short-term spread over the past few hundred years to be interesting on this new chart. Not something I'd seen plotted before.

The government output/GDP chart is also interesting. I posit that this is reaching (or may have already exceeded) an absolute long term limit. The tend can't continue.

The interest rate chart on page 31 lies to our eyes. The x-axis is non-linear and crams all the history before 1575 A.D. into a very small space, and the chart does not reflect the difference between maximum and minimum rates, nor reflect a weighting due to capital concentration.



Armstrong again exhibits that he has the most thorough and accurate databases of world history as follows. Armstrong's more accurate chart imparts a different conclusion, which is that interest rates are on an inexorable decline. I have related this to the empowerment of individual human knowledge and thus the reduction of importance of usury in the economy.



Below Armstrong related lower interest rates to greater confidence where capital can concentrate. Or let's put it another way, where capital doesn't have to fear return of capital. But either way, what is capital concentration? Capital concentration is an excess of savings w.r.t. to those activities which require financing. Again this is the advancing individual knowledge age where as production requires less fixed capital and more individually accessible knowledge creation and creativity, then finance concentrates in excess because the economy is very productive but at the same time needs less and less finance. So as I have pointed out, we are not only headed to the death of Western governments and the concomitant Industrial Age, but also the death of nomimal interest rate returns on monetary savings. Since productivity can increase significantly in the Knowledge Age over what we had in the Industrial Age because of the greater degrees-of-freedom which is potential energy (see how in the above linked PDF, productivity increased from 0.1 to 1% per annum upon the dawn of the Industrial Age), then savings will gain purchasing power without earning any interest. The era of loans is coming to end.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/a-brief-history-of-world-credit-interest-rates/3000-b-c-500-a-d-the-ancient-economy

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37383



http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37321

My boomer mother (age 70) never did get into any music that doesn't have the melody of the Beatles's Strawberry Fields Forever. She is apparently not much of a music aficionado. And being proper, nice, and socially respectful is an important priority to her. And she ideologically approves of the Nanny State (except where it conflicts with some value she has) and feminist movement. For her melody is more important than bite and drama. She is extremely, flippantly sarcastic especially about any drama or hard-edge which goes against her core values of what is right and proper. And must have her daily tea. My mom explains it as having a strict German descent father. Sounds more British now the way you describe it.

So as you can imagine my mother and I can very easily get into horrible arguments where we won't even talk to each other. She so easily gets offended and I get really pissed off when someone tries to cage me. But also she is intelligent so we can enjoy some stimulating discussion as long as it is within the parameters of what is acceptable to her worldview. And lately I've learned to keep it more in that limited range, because it is a better feeling to share some empathy and good feelings with my mother than to display my full range of personality where it won't matter any way. But it also means I am not deeply driven to get back over to the USA to see my mum. But OTOH, its been more than a decade since I hugged my mum.

My father is the opposite when it comes to music. He recently had Little Boosie on his Facebook. He was usually listening to new styles of music before I did, I can say for example I got into Peruvian flute music and punk rock which he didn't seem to like much. I even went through a phase where I was listening to Mozart and Beethoven. My father was also much more permissive of my different modes through my life, but I think the Philippines jaunt exceeded his reasonable range of what was sane.

I think Americans wouldn't take the time to criticize Europeans (other than the stereotype that French can be arrogant as I guess experienced by Americans who vacationed there and had a romantic, idealized expectation of France) because they are so focused on the local affairs in their life, they haven't even taken the time to think about or experience what it means to be European. My mother had a fantasy about France (I assume her entire life) and last year finally did the vacation to France. She left thinking it was far too socialistic and plastic niceties for her taste. Even with her attitude which is I think less Americanized than I am, she still misses the black lady driving the public bus in New Orleans who'll stop the bus, fling open the door and remark, "hey darling, you need to get on this bus". So she has that American edge (unrefined, improper) in some facets.

I was exposed to Europeans in my travel to the Philippines and that is where I learned they (especially Germanic) look down on Americans, but don't entirely dislike us. Then again, I think Americans have adopted a similar attitude recently deviating from isolationism to thinking they have to fix everyone's lives (which I one reason I hate to be in the USA!!!). But it is more of a personal level thing than a nationalist projection of culture aspect (for that we delegate to the US military, which many of us Americans hate but some others admire it).

I think Americans oscillate throughout their lives between their Europeans roots and their American independence. I know there were times I was into melody and harmony. The past couple of decades have been really hard on me. Always fighting for my independence. Always gritting my teeth. And the struggle doesn't seem to lessen. When one goes too extreme, there are costs to bear which may be incompensable and unconquerable.

Society has a purpose. Isn't there a song, Get the Balance Right. I was always full speed to wall, bang, back up, bang again. Lol.        

If that is not an issue for him, then Australia is a better choice than EU 

And as the global economy turns down 2016 forward and European deflationary contagion accelerates, the European governments only have two choices:

• Cut pensions (either nominally, raising the retirement age, or by printing money via the ECB)
• Expropriate more money, i.e. raise tax rates and bail-in savings accounts when the overleveraged banks go belly up.

Either of those will depress the economy further (i.e. spiraling the toilet bowl contagion), thus the productive youth will leave because Europe does not tax foreign earned income nor wealth tax of middle class levels. The unproductive youth will stay and suckle the nipple of social welfare.

So then (mainland) Europe will have only two choices:

• Cut pensions (either nominally, raising the retirement age, or by printing money via the ECB)
• Institute international taxation enforcement and capital controls copying the USA's FATCA system.

Given the retiring WW2 boomers hold the political power (they are more numerous and hold more political positions), which outcome do you think will be most likely (Hint: it is in red color I think).

France has been a case exhibit. The retirees have rebuffed against raising the retirement age and cutting their benefits.

Why promote a delusion?


And their castrated clitorises.

Do you think a Muslim will allow you to teach his child heresy in a public school. Of course they will home school or form their own cultural schools.



And violently discipline their many wives when and where they want. And carry out jihad when required. All these required by adherence to Allah, besides the male chauvinist culture being highly valued by the males and worth strapping bombs to one's chest to die for a heaven filled with virgins.

See men are castrated in Europe. They have no more control over their culture nor children. Muslim men don't agree to be castrated. Who you think will win the cultural battle? (of course the men who are not castrated)

Any society which castrates its men and tries to delude itself into regulating that women are equally productive as as men, is doomed to overthrow by the Barbarians.

There can be a better balance between men and women, that respects the virtues of the genders (e.g. Philippines and Latin America). But never can you have women and men equal without destroying your society. Inequality doesn't always mean one gender has less power. Men can never bear offspring. The man inherently has a lot more power because of this, but the men who don't take care of the women, end up with nothing (no future for their offspring). Of course if you are Genghis Kahn, you plant your semen in 100s or 1000s of women and let the odds play in your favor for your genetic dominance. But I think his satisfaction and motivation in life had more to do with ending the tribal strife and unifying Mongolia. Then he had to extend his empire in order to protect it.

What I am saying is that each person had to decide their evolutionary and life satisfaction strategy.

But if you are analyzing what is "right" instead of what is "plausible", then you are not employing strategy, rather just delusion.

Being a fan of American musical extremists, I'm not that likely to defend the Brits apart maybe AMM, PIL, Spacemen 3 and Floyd, especially early (and others I can't think of for now like King Crimson and Joy Division). I obviously like loads of UK bands but few seem to take it to the edge like the yanks -Beefheart, MC5, Stooges, No Wave, Sonic Youth, Père Ubu, Patti Smith, Magick Markers, Ramones, Red Crayola ...... Lester Bangs had little time for us limeys in music - I think they think we spend our time poncing around in beautifully studied and staid poses, that we're fey and fairy-minded, that we are masters of melody and pop but lacking in vital energy. Maybe living in a monarchy and being basically "nice" people (though much less now than before it seems) makes us like harmony, balance and being reasonable in life and art. It could seem to the yanks that we're too peevish and ashamed to put our balls on the table. But since Oscar Wilde has become part of what we are and that involves stepping back from the fire of art and creation and observing it at a distance, impersonally and without passion and involvement and that might well rile Americans - anyway, it does me. At times I want to shake my fellow countrymen into life! We're being stifled by politeness and ideas of the "correct" thing to do in all circumstances. We're very self-conscious and have constantly in our minds the big eyes of society staring at us and influencing our decisions in art and life. I don't think the yanks are like that so much - this means they're freer to create and they get to places we never dream of.

I've wrote before, that there's only one way in order to achieve normality. It's called "obey the same law system". The main flaw with the current cultural dogma is that they don't promote the basics of what our society has achieved to those people. Only schools can do that. The stationarity is also not acceptable. For the sake of paradigm, I will try to pass an image from Rhodes island a couple of weeks ago:
Two British female tourists were walking hand by hand while going to the beach, wearing super bikinis. On the other side of the road two women with burghas dressed ALL in black within the heat of August saw the scene... You should see their faces!

Both cultures will have to get along with each other. Non-passant Muslim territories must be eliminated (there are quite many ways if the authorities decide to do it). In a free country, everyone must be free to move around, to eat anywhere they want and go everywhere they want, wearing whatever they want; even those who, for their whole life learned to live like slaves for the sake of their beliefs, or because they forced them to it with this excuse.

This way, or the highway.

But the Muslim immigrants don't dare do any shootings or other violent nonsense in Texas, or they will find out there is a gun under ever rock. Perhaps they can make a mess of NYC.

And Southwest, the Latinos (Hispanics) will take care of the problem if they get too bothersome in the inner cities. In Mexico, you can see the local Mexicans are starting to take matters into their own hands and arming themselves and forming community patrols.

America is inherently more immune than Europe, because Europe has this Freudian disease where they disarm themselves, have some noble arrogance about the virtues of socialism to cover up for their guilt about their addiction to imperialism.

From my perspective, the USA's main problem is that a large percentage of the population is undisciplined and has lost the core values (don't work hard, don't know how to survive off the land, addicted to their cell phones, shopping, and McFat). But the ones who retain such core values will break away from the rest. This is why the USA will split into regions as Armstrong's model predicts (might not be within our lifetime though for those of us in our 50s). Whereas, Europe will sink into a Orwellian morass and be run top-down from Brussels with massive chronic social issues and economic decline.

If the Federal government wasn't so strong in the USA, I would consider returning there and making the good fight. The problem is it is going to be quite the battle to diminish the Feds. Going to play out over some decade(s). I don't have time for that, I am already 50. For example, if I owned some land out in the boonies, the BLS can fuck with me such as in the Bundy Ranch case. Of course it will be same any where, but I'd much prefer a weak Federal government such as Argentina. For example in the USA it will increasingly become impossible to just walk across the border. If Trump has his way, the'll build a wall along the entire border.

But if I was a young person who is not yet independently wealthy (or who doesn't want to live like a hippie with no material wealth), I might consider immigrating to the USA (but make sure you understand the tax implications) if you select an area that has good opportunities that match your skills. It has more upside than Europe. Argentina would not be a good choice for a young person, because the economy is so restricted by corruption and basically a feudal system of agriculture (some think that might change with the current election, but it is doubtful that Perónism can die that quickly). Chile would be better if you prefer South America. For a 20-something man, all the first world options would be probably be better than Chile, such as Canada, USA, Singapore, New Zealand, and Australia. But again, I am talking about young men who want to forsake the Nanny State and work hard for their future. Note they may be able to squeeze more economic results out of Europe yet, so might not yet be the ideal time to emigrate yet being early does have the advantage of acting while being viable.


But didn't you just overthrow the current party that was headed down the wrong direction and isn't there a lot of land out in the boonies to get away from the daily interaction with the Federal government and isn't there likelihood of a burgeoning economy in the major cities after China bottoms in 2020 and the Asians investing big time in Australia over the next decades.

For a young person, Australia looks a lot better than Argentina. Ideologically I hate the socialism and totalitarianism that is developing in Australia, but they don't have the insoluble economic situation of Europe. Europe has been working on fucking itself up and addiction to imperialism for 1000s of years. Australia is still developing its capabilities for self-destruction.

No doubt Australia is a 5 Eyes country and the Orwellian tracking and dog tagging of humans will be pervasive, but I am speaking about a young European who already agrees to being a tagged dog any way.

For you and I, we want an escape. That is a different priority set.

...

MF Doom wrote:

"How on earth will they assimilate into European/Western cultures?"

And he got that right.  The young Muslim males will NOT assimilate into European culture.  Why should they?  The earlier immigrants did not, and their percentage of the population is growing.

And when our (America's) turn arrives, the young Muslim males will not assimilate here either.  Would bringing in their women and children help that?  No, current evidence is that it would not.  See Muslim women who dress in their hijabs.

Can confirm, I'm a huge fan of regulation as well, for rules are (still) necessary to provide greater equality among people. It's just not being done the right (fair) way, and it wont ever be done in a fair way as long as power is centralized. If we ever get that far, regulation to provide equality probably wont be necessary anyways.

I think the main reason why we're all so fond of it is because social welfare/social securities and regulations have (in the long term) increased ever since they came into play (post WWII). Take the Dutch pension system for example, its a ponzi scheme;

Everyone working for a paycheck has to pay pension contributions, those are mandatory. These "savings" aren't saved "for when you're too old to work", they are being used to provide elder people with their pensions. Not contributing to this collective system of inter-generational support is illegal, individuals are not allowed gather their own pensions, the pyramid would fall apart. Atm we are all contributing 20% of our wage. Bluntly speaking, the moment my dad finished fucking my mom, I was saddled with a 6-digit debt. Declining birth rates will shake its foundation, but hey, lets get reelected.


I both fear and long for what will happen when we get confronted with us living a lie. We get nannied to the point where only a war or economic meltdown will wake us up.

Australian real estate has peaked according to Morgan Stanley.

http://m.smh.com.au/business/markets/house-price-growth-in-sydney-and-melbourne-continues-apace-20150922-gjrzpq.html

Also this chart shows that stocks have declined within 1-3 months the last two times margin debt has peaked.

http://ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/nyse-margin-debt-data-raise-questions

If so, pretty damn close to 2015.75.

I wouldn't care if it was just refugees, but the data clearly shows that the majority are economic migrants and not actual refugees, the selection process is pretty laughable to actually differentiate- 75% male most of which are young and healthy, no trouble there then *sigh*- but these are the people that Germany really want to keep the unfunded liabilities rolling, nevermind integration problems or the safety of their women.
I'm lucky enough to have the option to go back to the UK very easily (plenty of work and family) where the policy is relatively sane and measured. But the UK is also feeling the effects of decades of multiculturalist policy too, just to a lesser degree than much of mainland Europe.

the same is happening in the US, 100,000+ coming in each year for the foreseeable future.  And thats IF you believe the government figures.  So when they say 100k this year, it could be 200k+.

I'm sorry to hear that people are having to flee their countries, but apparently the gvt has no problem with the chaos this situation could create.

Stephan Molyneux does a grat commentary on the situation.  One point he brings up is that these people havent been able to get along with others who share the same religion, customs, language (shiite vs sunnis) for the past 1500 YEARS!!!  How on earth will they assimilate into European/Western cultures?

Ha! Thanks for the heads-up.

Australia's pretty fucked too, it's just a slightly different flavour of shit compared to Europe 

I have to agree on this. The only thing stopping my wife and I from moving is that we haven't decided to yet, we both see the writing on the wall, whereas Germany was an option for us both previously we want less to do with it now that it is committing itself to making it unsafe for it's residents. If I stay in the same industry, New Zealand and Australia are in our sights.

Remember up thread some Europeans arrogantly tried to imply that Asians were less innovative. Ha!

http://www.science.ph/full_story.php?key=6176:best-filipino-inventions-for-2012

How about filipinos improving the economics of rennet— the key ingredient in cheese production! Tropical third-world asians out innovating Europe on cheese! Deal with the irony.

http://ovcre.uplb.edu.ph/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=135:biotech-wins-2012-nice-likha-award&Itemid=101

http://businessdiary.com.ph/925/how-to-make-white-cheese-kesong-puti-using-biotech-rennet/

http://affleap.com/locally-produced-rennet-a-big-lift-to-filipino-dairy-farmers/

http://biotech.uplb.edu.ph/index.php/en/products/food-and-feed-enzymes

---

Seems to compute perfectly. Morass ingress, those who wish to escape morass egress.

I understand you were attempting to imply that immigrants think Europe is better than where they are coming from. Well in the short-term and given they were escaping ISIS torture, yes. I presume skilled European youth have better opportunities for their emigration, e.g. Singapore, New Zealand, Chile, Canada, etc..

... at the same time a flood of migrant youths is washing in from Arabia?

Something doesn't add up here.