Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 47. (Read 647251 times)

COMMENT #1: HILARIOUS!! A simple FOOL wanting to shoot the messenger.
“A closed mind gathers NO facts.”

REPLY: No worries. I find these people just a joke myself. I refrain from publishing them because sometimes they are just so off the wall it is hilarious. They claim I make up the questions because I publish ones that are at least valid. So once in a while I will post some of these crazy ones just to show how nuts they can be.

Newfoundland Biggest Snowstorm Even on Record 01/18/2020 on ECM
Blog/Climate
Posted Jan 21, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: St. John’s Newfoundland, Canada had experienced the most snowfall in a twenty-four hour period on record on January 18, 2000, ECM day.

FM

REPLY: Stay warm up there. Greta thing you should turn off the heat. No worries! I wouldn’t suggest that right. It is curious that it was on the ECM data, but probably more of just an interesting antidote for the books. But this 2020 target is the beginning also of a new Solar Cycle which may be the lowest in at least 200 years and possibly retest the Litlle Ice Age period. Let’s hope this is not a take of every year. It fell to the low 50s here in Florida. Obviously I was mistaken, I should have moved further south to find global warming.

The ECM & Who to Blame
Blog/ECM
Posted Jan 22, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: You are dangerous. The stock market peaked on your model again but nobody’s models work like that so it is just more proof you don’t advertise because you are way too influential. So what are you up to now? You are against the progressive movement and you will undermine what we work for to unseat people like you.

SB

Interest Rates and the Great Global Crisis
Blog/Interest Rates
Posted Jan 22, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I attended your 2016 WEC and I thought you would be wrong that interest rates would rise and the whole big bang thing. Rates have risen only in the US, the pension crisis is clearly unfolding, and states have been going bust. Now there is the Repo Crisis and I did buy the report. I will return to the WEC this year. I realize that you are able to forecast long-term trends that nobody else can even see.  Here in Australia, my God, it seems like the government has become occupied by Nazis who were also hunting money.

Good on ya!

PD

Why Has IBM’s Watson Failed?
Blog/AI Computers
Posted Jan 22, 2020 by Martin Armstrong



QUESTION: Marty; Socrates has done a fantastic job in picking turning points, rallies, projections for resistance, so many things. Yet IBM’s Watson was supposed to blow everything out of the water and find the cure for cancer and it has failed miserably. What did you do that IBM did not?

Also, the rumor is that China has made you a huge offer even citizenship because they intend to be the leader in AI. That’s why you’re having a WEC in Shanghai. Is there any truth to that since Socrates covers all of the main Chinese stocks as well?

JH

ANSWER: IBM’s Watson was simply a giant neural net. I have explained before that I toyed with that back in the 1980s and quickly saw that it would lead nowhere. Real Artificial Intelligence is something that learns and analyzes on its own to create its own conclusion. In all honesty, 99.999% of what people present as AI are simply expert systems that can be distinguished rather easily because all they are doing is looking up some subject from rule-based systems.

IBM’s Watson could search the entire internet and gather every piece of information possible. That was the easy part. What IBM lacked was the expertise in how to do research. How do you know that one piece of info is the key or more important than another? They lacked the ability to create a real analysis capability.

Neural Nets were a great hope that somehow you just throw in all this information, shake well, and out will magically appear the answer. The presumption was that our minds are just supercomputers and they ignored perhaps the critical understanding of what makes one person brilliant at math and another a brilliant artist who can’t count beyond 1,000.

This theory that our minds are simply supercomputers ignored some critical traits and how to distinguish one person from another. There was this idea that if you create a neural net and stuff in all this knowledge it will learn all by itself. This was just a giant fiction to me, which was up there with the theory that somehow the machine will come to life and decide it wants to rule the world and take over humankind.

My approach was to teach it HOW to analyze, not WHAT to analyze. I created in the code as much of myself as I could without the human flaws that keep life interesting. I taught Socrates HOW to analyze and did not leave that to the chance of a neural net that cannot be tested.

I then had to teach it language so I could communicate with it to try to understand how it arrived at such a conclusion. I used my children to improve Socrates’ language skills back in the 1980s. I wrote a program to have an ongoing conversation with them. My daughter believed it was alive and would bring her friends over to show them a computer that talked.

Now as for China, no I do not have an offer from the Chinese government. We have been focused on expanding our services into China and we are not blocked like most other analysts because they do understand it is a computer writing all these reports so there is no risk of a person sneaking into paragraph three and writing, “BTW, overthrow your government.”

Yes, I would take in a major partner who brings something to the table in the field of expertise. This is not a start-up operation. We do not need money to fund a theory. We have clients in more than 137 different countries and a track record of more than 40 years.

And no, we have not been approached by IBM.

Not yet for the DOW. When MA talks about the US market, he means the Dow Jones. 
But it won't take long probably. We might see a new high today or tomorrow.

Well, here we are at new all time highs. I hope no one actually followed Armstrong's call because you would have gotten blown out. This is a bull market, you know!

And my "prediction" (MA is predictable) was correct other than the timing. This MA blog nonsense here, posted 11 Mar 2019:

"This may be our last WEC in Europe."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-economics-upcoming-events/world-economic-conference/wec-in-rome-may-be-our-last-in-europe/

Turned out to be hysterical BS, using the known psychological sales tactic of urgency, where we are now going to see another WEC in EUROPE this year, posted 22 Jan 2020:

"This year we are holding three World Economic Conference events — Shanghai in May, Frankfurt in June, and then Orlando in November. The Frankfurt WEC will focus on the crisis in Europe."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-economics-upcoming-events/world-economic-conference/interest-rates-and-the-great-global-crisis/


I know someone who attended the Rome WEC convinced it was going to be their "last chance" to see MA present a conference in Europe. One year later and he is back! Not three, five or ten years - literally the following year. I had a feeling that would be the case.

Yet more people hoodwinked out of thousands of dollars for something that is only just above an MA-narrated podcast version of his blog...

I took the cheapest subscription last weekend to see what he would write on his private blog.
That was USD15 well spend. The amount of nonsense is unbelievable I think.

He said so many things have changed direction on the ECM. Also mentions the changes in government in Russia last week, some sort of confrontation between Russian and US troops in Syria, and yesterday a story about a conference in Berlin on Libya.

Anyway, he mentions we closed yesterday under Friday's low so that the high was in. Well....it will warn that we "MAY" face a correction.
So even on the ECM he can give no clarity. Very dissapointing, yet again.

Anyway, he mentions we closed yesterday under Friday's low so that the high was in.

Well....it will warn that we "MAY" face a correction.

Climate Change & the 2020 ECM Turning Point
Blog/Climate
Posted Jan 21, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Hard sell of the 2020 WEC has started:


Traditionally, inverted yield curves... this will make for a very interesting WEC.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/economic-storm-trump-will-be-blamed-for-because-of-bad-advisers/

How predictable that the next WEC will be in January 2020. My guess is either Singapore, Germany or London.

2020.05 will come to pass with barely a whimper, but it won't matter by then as MA is long gone with over a million dollars in event attendee money. Cue some loosely related "event" that will indeed be pinned as the Jan 2020 "turning point"...

"Since 1988, Renaissance's signature Medallion fund has generated average annual returns of 66 percent."

"The remaining are "accredited investors", generally worth at least $1 million. Since its inception in March 1988, Simons' flagship $3.3 billion Medallion fund, has amassed annual returns of 35.6 percent, compared with 17.9 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500 index."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies

Average 66 percent and average 35,6 percent is VERY far apart.

...
Saying a panic cycle is this week (so lower?), but last Friday the Dow elected a bullish reversal at 28.971,94, so we also should test 30k (so higher?).

Armstrong again got caught red handed playing both sides.

By the way, there is a new book on Jim Simons, "The Man Who Solved the Market".
Simons actualy did did what Armstrong is saying he did.

"Simons built a computer model capable of digesting torrents of data and selecting ideal trades, a scientific and systematic approach partly aimed at removing emotion from the investment process.
Since 1988, Renaissance's signature Medallion fund has generated average annual returns of 66 percent. The firm has earned profits of more than $100 billion; Simons is worth twenty-three billion dollars."



...Compare this with Armstrong  

Well so far at least the opening of this week based on FUTURES looks like DOWN HARD to me.  So I have to tip my hat off to armstrong for this week, it looks like he is going to be right about this panic cycle week.  Need to give credit where credit is due, not many traders can say ahead of time or weeks ahead of time when a panic cycle WEEK is going to occur.

What he basically is saying now is: a high around Saturday January 18 (week before or after)= turning down 20%+ into Q1 2021. Only if US share markets make a low on the ECM we would rally in 2020 once we take out 2019 high.
For now, taking out 28.971,94 on a weekly basis could mean going toward 30k.

So he means either a big low or a big high around the ECM. Looking at yesterday's price action, a low seems hardly possible anymore.

Well so far at least the opening of this week based on FUTURES looks like DOWN HARD to me.  So I have to tip my hat off to armstrong for this week, it looks like he is going to be right about this panic cycle week.  Need to give credit where credit is due, not many traders can say ahead of time or weeks ahead of time when a panic cycle WEEK is going to occur.

Well so far at least the opening of this week based on FUTURES looks like DOWN HARD to me.  So I have to tip my hat off to armstrong for this week, it looks like he is going to be right about this panic cycle week.  Need to give credit where credit is due, not many traders can say ahead of time or weeks ahead of time when a panic cycle WEEK is going to occur.

Well so far at least the opening of this week based on FUTURES looks like DOWN HARD to me.  So I have to tip my hat off to armstrong for this week, it looks like he is going to be right about this panic cycle week.  Need to give credit where credit is due, not many traders can say ahead of time or weeks ahead of time when a panic cycle WEEK is going to occur.