Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 59. (Read 647251 times)

That is NOT what Armstrong implied in some of his private blog posts.

Read the private blog titled "US Share Market - Breakout or Something Else?"

"The mere fact that we exceeded the 2018 high in 2019 raised the possibility of a cycle inversion increasing the risk of a correction next year." He then said it could be a "temporary high with a correction thereafter."

And in another blog post, he said "World leaders will continue to blame Trump's trade war for the economic decline into 2020. However, the ECM has been pointing down for the business cycle into January 2020 all along."

And in another blog post, he said "Socrates has been warning about that the world economy is taking a nose-dive into January 2020."

The contradictory nature of Socrates parallels the Socratic Problem. 

"In historical scholarship, the Socratic problem (or Socratic question)[1] concerns attempts at reconstructing a historical and philosophical image of Socrates based on the variable, and sometimes contradictory, nature of the existing sources on his life. Scholars rely upon the extant sources, such as those of contemporaries like Aristophanes or disciples of Socrates like Plato and Xenophon, for knowing anything about Socrates. However, these sources contain contradictory details of his life, words, and beliefs when taken together. This complicates the attempts at reconstructing the beliefs and philosophical views held by the historical Socrates. It is apparent to scholarship that this problem is now deemed a task seeming impossible to clarify and thus perhaps now classified as unsolvable."

Does Socrates or anyone here know when this market melt-up is going to end? Of course Marty will have called it in hindsight. I'm thinking a post New Years correction a-la 2018. What's the new XIV to throw puts on?

Hesitant about the book as someone else mentioned the Table of Contents dies look like a collection of blog posts. Some glorious bastard posted the Greatest Trade of the Century on this board and 90% of it was wrapped in Roman and Greek history going so far off track from anything related to financial advice you just skip through to the last 10 or so pages. I guess in that one, his overarching theory was private vs public waves. Should maybe have been presented as that rather than a long history lesson littered with typos. That was sold to people believing they were buying financial advice.

Looking at the Table of Contents shows the book to be another irrelevant history lesson which I'd be surprised if it stayed on track with the title. The self-published nature says it all. This will be a $100 typo filled book. He wants it as a "textbook" like everything he writes in there is objective fact and it just isn't. He won't ever submit anything for peer review. He says the Government really jailed him to get Socrates. Socrates is the Theranos of financial AI. That is simply why nothing he does can ever get a closer look.

I'd be interested if anyone can lend insight into the Repo Crisis and what Marty specifically has to say. From what I've pieced together JPM pulled out of REPO and left a huge cash hole which no Bank would fill due to Deutsche Bank's problems? 

Thank you Gumbi. I could not find a better way to prove what I am trying to lay out here in this forum as you just did for me in an unquestionably valid way.

You are absolutely perfectly demonstrating to all of us the deviousness of your approach, the built-in ambiguity of the reversal system, the computerized fraud that I am referring to - which is:

You are listing a cherry-picked subset of those ambiguous conflicting signals (actually non-signals in this case) that are always generated, that you would normally search and quote in hindsight to argue your case in your attempt to make others look stupid.

More importantly, this is once again a fraudulent misrepresentation of the performance of the system, which you are claiming to have performed as expected while in fact the system failed.


In this case, you are quoting:

1) A not-elected yearly reversal - a non-signal:

2) Another reference to that same not-elected yearly reversal:

3) Two not-elected weekly reversals - non-signals:

4) More technical description of the same weekly non-elected reversals (non-signals):

So you think that you can convince any rational observer with that noise, convince them that this noise is valid to overpower and negate / invalidate the only thing that really mattered, a signal that was indeed elected, a quarterly bearish reversal?

So you are saying here in public, that any number of non-elected reversals can negate a major elected reversal of higher significance!

You are saying that this reversal system is absolutely worthless because any elected reversal is subject to so many potentially negating conditions that nobody considering them should ever have any confidence trading based on an elected reversal.

Thank you!

 


Here is a detailed time line of the events:


Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for a reason.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

AnonymousCoder

The final nail in the coffin…

In gold at the end of 2015 we did not elect a yearly sell signal which stood at 1044.50.  We also held two key weekly bearish reversals which you are also ignoring completely at 1042 and 1026 these weekly bearish reversals were providing the key support before the break of $1000.

Gold – Update
Posted Dec 25, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-the-update/
"Gold for year-end has a number of 1044.50 if we close BELOW this next Wednesday on December 31. If we close ABOVE this number, it will not provide a buy signal nor will it avoid a sell signal."

Gold – It Ain’t Over Until the Fat Lady Sings
Posted Jul 23, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-it-aint-over-until-the-fat-lady-sings/
" The key Weekly Bearish Reversals are 1084 and 1075, followed by 1042 and 1026. We have four Weekly Bearish Reversals providing support before the break at $1,000."

Gold – in the Wake of Paris
Posted Nov 16, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-in-the-wake-of-paris/
"It is between 1026 and a small gap down to 983, followed by 934 and 885. The horizontal lines are the reversals – red for bearish and green for bullish. There are clusters forming above (resistance) and below (support)."

So who in their right mind would short gold at the end of 2015 with all this information? Ultimately you have failed to understand the reversal system it was your mistake and others to short at the end of 2015. What appears obvious to Armstrong is clearly not the case to everyone else.

You "seem" to be well versed in one trade do you not have any others to share? Or is that it because all the evidence points to you being wrong on this one… You are just a disgruntled 2015 gold report owner who got burned because you failed to see we never actually elected a yearly sell signal at the end of 2015 and we failed to elect two key weekly bearish reversals which were posted well in advance.

Regarding the book try reading the table of contents… and it sold out in less than 3 hours
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/manipulating-the-world-economy/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/products/amazon-did-sell-out-in-less-than-3-hours/

So we are supposed to spend $100 on a book where no review exists, and not even a single chapter is published? Your reaction is a perfect warning to all people NOT to buy it.

We do NOT discuss any signals here given in hindsight. For your hindsight trick we have a standard response that will remind everybody how you tried to sell the ultimate reversal system failure as a success, the failure of a quarterly reversal that many remember:

As previously said, Gumbi's posts get replied to in a way that will remind him of the context in which we showed him that he is a charlatan.

Let him be reminded again that we have a model case where this behavior is documented in much detail. It actually saves time and effort to repeat this as opposed to wasting the time trying to argue this same type of thing without end.

Whatever smokescreen Gumbi and cohorts are coming up with now, they get this reply. I know Gumbi just wants this message to go away but I am not going to do him the favor. I am just not taking his baits for more nonsense any more.

The pattern is the same again and again: Pick one of the ambiguous conflicting Socrates signals in hindsight to argue the case. For us, there is no need to formulate a custom response to that. We use this model case as a standard response reply to show what these charlatans are doing.

I have an obligation to spread the message for the honest people, and as painful as it is for me, I am going to persevere until the Armstrong promoters shut up. So they are warned. The honest people have all the facts on their side.



Here we go. You are providing the proof of my assertion yourself!

Hindsight, Fraud. This hindsight message is fraudulent misrepresentation of performance, pure fraud!
Now here you are saying, and I know you are speaking for Martin Armstrong, that


Martin Armstrong had this information, this bullish signal, the fact that his model went long - at the end of the year - but at the same time failed to tell his clients?

In fact he sent the opposite signal to his clients at the time!

If he knew this at the time when he claimed the system went long, and let's assume for the sake of argument that what you say is true then he could have been trading against his clients because he published this signal only three months later.

You are not worth the respect of a single honest being on earth! You are a fraud!


And yes, I have all the reports. How could I otherwise quote them? I have everything!

More importantly, all other people who lost, they have everything as well.



Here is a detailed time line of the events:


Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for a reason.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

@nstrdms
The ECM is the global economic cycle declining into 2020.05(18 Jan) I am referring to the US share market crashing into Jan 2021 if we rally into this ECM turning point in Jan 2020


@MA_talk

Welcome back

"I explained that the cycle was discovered from a study of the number of financial panics between 1683 and 1907 that was a total time period of 224 years. There were 26 panics within that 224 year period that produced 8.615384615."
"this business cycle can be calculated on quarter-cycle intervals of 2.15 years into the final peak for this major wave formation of December 24th, 2032."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/writings/1999-2/the-business-cycle-and-the-future/

10/07/015 is simply the ECM in 2.15 year intervals, it’s a quarter cycle of the ECM 8.6/4 = 2.15


The dates of the ECM cannot be changed and have been documented well in advance. I also posted a trade where 2 major daily bearish reversals  were elected on the 1st of October with a big gap to the next  and it was successful.



  For bitcoin we don't have the reversals just a single blog post how can we with any confidence going to conclude anything? Socrates doesn’t work like that where it's completely static and never changes we could of easily generated and elected a set of monthly reversals based on future price movement. That’s why that post doesn’t help because we don’t have all the information. It seems to be an error on the part of Armstrong but to conclude Socrates got it wrong simply cannot be determined.

Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year to everyone here.  Sorry that I have been away.  Too many things that I had to handle.


Gumbi,

  Armstrong always claims that his system watches all global capital, and everyone else forecasts in isolated markets, while he can make accurate predictions because all financial markets affect each other.

  So let's review his prediction for bitcoin price at the end of 2018 here:

https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/p/armstrong-said-on-nov-26th-2018-that.html


  Anybody who took his advice based on annual closing would have been burned so bad.


  ANY honest person with any integrity would have gone back and reviewed his own forecast, and tries to save the readers who made the bad trades based on his advice at the EARLIEST possible moment, if he has made any mistakes.  But NOT Armstrong!!

  WHY?  Because Armstrong is NEVER concerned about any people who read his public or private blog.

  Throughout 2019, he simply will NOT talk about his own mistakes on bitcoin.  Well, probably in his entire "forecasting" career, he simply never discussed any of his forecasting mistakes.  He/Socrates needs to be trading god, and must continue to maintain an image of zero mistakes.


  In logic, the method of proof by contradiction is by starting with an assumption, and shows that it leads to a contradiction.  And thus you will know that the original starting assumption is simply false.  As an example, ECM is 8.6 years, and also 8.615 years.  So if 8.6=8.615, you subtract 8.6 from both sides, and you get 0 = 0.015.  Then you multiply 1000 on both side, and you get 0 = 15.  Then you divide both side by 15, and you get 0 = 1.  Then you add 1 on both sides, and you get 1 = 2.  And then once you repeat this process of talking non-sense, you can essentially show that 2 = 3, and 3 = 4, and all the numbers in the entire universe are equal!!  That is how Armstrong said HIMSELF that ECM date was 10/1/2015, and ALSO 10/7/2015.  Two different dates when his model would be accurate down to the very day every time.

https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/p/economic-confidence-model.html


  So by starting out the assumption that Armstrong is able to make successful predictions on all financial markets because his "super-computer" watches all global capital, and that his own prediction on bitcoin has been shown to be so terribly wrong, you know that the original assumption is simply NOT correct.

  So if Armstrong cannot "predict" successfully in one single market of bitcoin, how can we know that he can predict stocks or gold successfully?  For a charlatan who makes easily 50+ "predictions" every year in so many different markets, you bet that he can hit the bull's eye in one of the 50+ shots.  But the problem is WHICH of the 50+ predictions will be correct?  That is essentially the same as saying that I will get a head when I flip a coin every time, and about 50% of the time, I will be right.  Then I will simply review the successful "predictions", and ignore all the failures.  I will be a trading god.

  And of course, Armstrong wants to lay the blame on the traders/readers.  His "forecasting" keeps changing by keeping track of the markets in  HINDSIGHT whether it's late by 1 min, 1 day, or 1 month.  It's keeping track, and does NOT SEEM to be wrong.  But there is ZERO profit that can be made from a yesterday's "prediction".  Gumbi and many pro-Armstrong people promised to show the trading record on this forum, and NONE has been able to shown a consistent profitable trading method that is BASED on Armstrong's models.  NONE, but lots of excuses like "I'm just not going to show it to you".  Well, if you have time to post here, then you can show it.  Otherwise, there is no point to argue FOR Armstrong, or you can just stay away from the forum.  I'm not even asking people to post every trade that they make.  I'm only ASKING to post the trade based on the SAME selection criteria, and AHEAD of the time, NOT AFTER the fact, when trade is already in profits.  You may make 100 trades every month, but if you can post just 1 of them AHEAD of the time using the same consistent criteria, then this forum can productively study the results to see if it is statistically significant, and discuss the trading method.

  If you ask 1024 people to throw the coins 10 times, about 1 of the 1024 people will get 10 heads in a roll.  Similarly, we just need to make sure that such result is simply born out of pure chance, or based on trading skills.

Armstrong said the global decline low would be into Jan 2020. Now you’re saying he said 2021.
“ The Economic Confidence Model has called every turning point in the global economy, right down to the economic decline currently into January 2020.”

What does “into” mean in this context? Before, during, after? Too ambiguous.

Why don’t you all read the book first then talk shit about it.  It's hilarious you have already conclude the book is worthless without having even read a single page because you desperately want  Armstrong to be a fraud, you would be very disappointed if you found out he was not.

 The problem is you want Armstrong to do the thinking and forecasting for you, you don't want to do it yourself and since the pro version came out this year there is no need for Armstrong to utter another word.  We  elected 5 monthly bullish reversals in 2019 and the first was in January  we have not elected a single monthly bearish reversal this year!!!!  but you want to cling to some post he made when  Socrates is updating every single day/week/month. You thought Armstrong was some prophet that you could just blindly follow and knew every move in advance but that’s not how it works. You cannot foresee what reversals will be elected in the future, once reversals are elected only then do you know the direction. Any forecast by Armstrong has to be confirmed or denied by electing reversals! you should only follow the numbers not Armstrong's opinion.

  Bikefront It was no new highs in 2019 on a SUSTAINABLE BASIS and a high in line with the ECM points to a sharp correction into Jan 2021. You want to say Socrates does not work but how many monthly reversals have you actually traded? And what was your exit strategy? Maybe your strategy was the problem so can you give an example of a trade you made on either the Dow/Nasdaq/S&P 500/gold/silver/Crude oil/EURUSD/GBPUSD using Socrates.  

Nobody has been able to give even a single example of where the reversal system went wrong since its full release in 2019, how is this possible  

... And then send the works for peer review from a credible source.

Maybe then MA can get his name proudly stamped into the history books of economics, rather than have the shame of the annals of incarceration as his legacy.

Alright. So our prolific liar says reversals are based on Physics.

We have another more general description that must be true whether it is called "based on Physics" or not. "Physics" sounds fancy so that is why Armstrong is using the word. Perhaps a programmer has even told him so. He is also using the word "AI" even while he acknowledged that "Neural Nets I have never seen work". He is talking like a village idiot. Where is the value of that statement then if we cannot trust his words?

The inescapable truth is that the reversals are based on a single time series - nothing more. Therefore, the general terms "Technical Analysis" or "Time Series Analysis" are in fact accurately describing what they are based on.

To summarize, if we are ascending from a previous low, we partition vertically between our high point and that previous low into segments that give us the bearish reversal values. Not surprisingly, the partitioning algorithm creates reversals that are near (typically below) previous support values. If there is no way to get four support zones out of that, then we get double and triple reversals, or simply reversals that are clustered around the support zones. So yes, they are based on technical analysis, and yes, you can do them by hand.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for a reason.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

...but according to Martin (Nostradamus?) Armstrong, "The Reversals are not generated from technical analysis. They are based entirely upon physics with very complex formulas. Therefore, technical analysis can provide visual confirmation and target objectives. Timing is the dominant factor, for if you run out of time before a Directional Change, then the Reversals will confirm or deny a change in that directional trend."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/reversal-v-technical-analysis/

Indeed. In the interview at the beginning Martin Armstrong says this $100 book is a work of a lifetime and it took him four weeks to write it when he was away from home in Asia.

In 2014 he wrote: I have three teams working right now on three of the four books I am trying to complete.

So what is anyone expecting? Listen to the interview HOW he answers questions. He is lying about everything as always. He can't even talk normally. His excuse for this nonsense is that he is a "prolific writer".

I can't understand how anyone who has read this blog would even consider wasting any time on the idea of buying anything from someone who is obviously running a scam.

If people are still buying his books, then they WILL get what they deserve - and perhaps even what they want - which is nothing more than his public blogs in book form . Which is what he is a prolific writer of. Makes sense, doesn't it?


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for a reason.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Digi.....why would you want to buy a book from charlatan.....do you actually think you would benefit from something that he has just made up as he goes along to be as ambiguous as possible so its takes quite a time to realise youve been mugged.

Possibly he only supplied amazon with a handful of books ensuring it would sell out creating the feeling of a mad rush to buy the book when in fact hardly any have been purchased but its a nice useful tool to encourage some buying from those that just need a nudge to be fleeced out of their money.

I have noticed that these radio interviews posted on SM have contained less and less forecasts over time as they have to due to more and more of the forecasts being incorrect so he can't mention them without having to eat some home cooked humble pie. The idea is when wrong to then drift on to theory  and politics which he has, if the forecasts had of been correct he would just be continuing with the forecasts and not theory etc......

Meanwhile I am getting a little red in the face holding my breath waiting for Gumbi to post his trading account that has killed the market using the reversals. Rather then reversal possibly its upside down

Enjoy the book

Total, one came at USD102.98, and other USD109.10, Europe and Canada. I don't think that one would be willing to sell you his copy. But I assume there will be ebook available for free download, that's usually the case with other books.
As for trading, I guess I wouldn't pay for Socrates, will stick to common stuff (Fibonacci, ...). Would like to have the numbers of major reversals though. Someone here provided a way to calculate those, haven't looked thoroughly into that yet.

Martin Armstrong has something for everybody. You can get Socrates for under $100, actually $50. It has all the relevant weekly and monthly reversals. And as Gumbi, who speaks as an authority on the matter, if he is not the Guru himself says:



But be warned, if the reversals fail as they do like anything else, then Armstrong has both sides covered because he will say you cannot trade the reversals - you need - whatever fits in hindsight - the ECM, the Superposition events, the forecast arrays, the Energy models. You will sure become an expert on this.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for a reason.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

I've figured the book will sell out, so I was checking regularly. And as soon as it was available, I did order, two copies, one for myself, and other as a gift (to be backup copy as well). One should arrive mid January, and the other the end of January (different locations worldwide). I hope it will go through and get the book.
I'll buy mostly whatever writing Armstrong has to sell on the matter of economy and finance, below 100$. And for this book I was ready to pay even more. Through his blog I finally started to understand the economy, and now I'm just laughing to the Austrians, Keynesians, Monetarist, and other academia stuff.
No comment on Socrates, no experience with it.

Stopped reading and following Marty long time ago, and dropped him completely after the Dec dump and fiasco of Marty telling his subscribers NOT to go long and wait for better opportunity in Jan/Feb, but I did a quick search the other day, it's hilarious and ridiculous does anyone even know what the forecast even is anymore? All you hardcore Marty followers, he got interviews just from few months ago talking about Dow at least 35000 into 2021, and now it's bear market for 2020 and on? LOL even his dollar view seem has changed? And not to mention how he sooo missed n look like a fool after gold's price action lately. Still haven't seen anything change, Marty still doing what he's best at covering both sides just to sell and profit on his BS. And thanks for this discussion it's beautiful, hope ppl wake up to this fraud before they get themselves ruined. I found Marty shortly after Brexit vote 2016 and did meet several frustrated ppl at the WEC 2016 and not long after, understanding perfectly why that was the case.

Thanks. Obviously still some followers. I hope that people can see the low quality of this just by listening to the interview. As you said, we need more help. There are not that many comments. Don't forget to down-vote the video at the top.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for a reason.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

I've pitched in on you tube but could do with some help!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UaIqpvLQEo