Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 63. (Read 647050 times)

Before he replies, this has been answered before in so many threads that I can summarize past responses easily as follows (sorry):

If the reversal was good in hindsight: Without turning point, no worries. With turning point in the array we say the turning point was a cycle inversion.

If the reversal was bad in hindsight: With turning point, we say the turning point negated the reversal so it was your fault if you traded it. With no turning point, we look into arrays of the next lower and next higher time frames and we will sure find a matching turning point so again that turning point negated the reversal so it was your fault if you traded it. If all of the above is not true than we will sure find a nearby major reversal in the current or higher time frame that was just not elected, so we say that all 4 reversals need to be elected for a change in trend so again it was your fault that you did not consider this. If all of the above does not hold then we will surely find an elected reversal on a lower time frame so we should have traded that and should have exited the failed reversal trade at the same time, generating a net profit. If all of the above is still not sufficient to explain the failure of the reversal, we employ the rule that a reversal trade duration is between one and 3 time units and you traded the wrong number of time units. If again all that failed to explain the failure, then perhaps you did not exit the reversal when the price level of the next reversal was reached (which could happen within a fraction of a time unit not just between 1 and 3).


This view is numerically backed up by the fact that on average, the number of turning points in an array is usually quite high relative to the number of columns in it, so if you use multiple time frames then you are likely to find a turning point in any given situation.

To sum it up: This designed ambiguity makes it extremely easy for Armstrong to follow the above script and always claim that the system is right even when the reversals fail, which they do in 50% of all cases.

It should be fairly obvious that these complex decisions cannot be made in advance because the future price movement is not known ahead of time. If we wanted to execute the complex rules without knowing the price ahead of time, then we are faced with a dilemma: The rules contradict each other, and there is no mother of all rules that would tell us which of the contradicting rules applies in any given situation.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for a reason.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Can you elaborate this? How to "merge"?

Thanks!

+1 Thank you!

@AC, can you please stop copying and pasting your messages? We are all grown-ups here and once we have read it then we have read it.
No need to keep copying the same message over and over IMHO.
Thanks!

 

Collins Dictionary meanings
Gumbie
So true

Marty going full doom porn again (which is funny, because a lot of major issues seems to be resolving themselves):


And can anyone summarize what Armstrong is saying on his private blog on the Dow, for the record?

Now hedging his bets on gbpusd I see

No more 100 parity lol

Conservatives in the lead so model back in the garbage


nonsense gumbi and alex thats all you spew

Now Gumbi writes that it is worthless to spend thousands of dollars on a Martin Armstrong WEC seminar / conference because what Martin Armstrong says there is meaningless. Even while he says he does not know about this EURCHF trade.

Who wants to even consider these people who try to promote themselves with such nonsense? How much worse can it get?

More. He says that Martin Armstrong is innocent because "the federal conviction rate exceeds 98%". Meaningless nonsense.


This has already been discussed

- no point repeating.



As previously said, Gumbi's posts get replied to in a way that will remind him of the context in which we showed him that he is a charlatan.

The context is the ambiguity that he uses to defend his ever changing position, claiming he is always right and we are wrong. He does this by picking any one of the many conflicting signals that suits his agenda.

Let him be reminded again that we have a model case where this behavior is documented in much detail. It actually saves time and effort to repeat this as opposed to wasting the time trying to argue this same type of thing without end.

Whatever smokescreen Gumbi and cohorts are coming up with now, they get this reply. I know Gumbi just wants this message to go away but I am not going to do him the favor. I am just not taking his baits for more nonsense any more.

The pattern is the same again and again: Pick one of the ambiguous conflicting Socrates signals in hindsight to argue the case. For us, there is no need to formulate a custom response to that. We use this model case as a standard response reply to show what these charlatans are doing.

I have an obligation to spread the message for the honest people, and as painful as it is for me, I am going to persevere until the Armstrong promoters shut up. So they are warned. The honest people have all the facts on their side.



Here we go. You are providing the proof of my assertion yourself!

Hindsight, Fraud. This hindsight message is fraudulent misrepresentation of performance, pure fraud!
Now here you are saying, and I know you are speaking for Martin Armstrong, that


He had this information, this bullish signal, the fact that his model went long - at the end of the year - but at the same time failed to tell his clients?

In fact he sent the opposite signal to his clients at the time!

If he knew this at the time when he claimed the system went long, and let's assume for the sake of argument that what you say is true then he could have been trading against his clients because he published this signal only three months later.

You are not worth the respect of a single honest being on earth! You are a fraud!


And yes, I have all the reports. How could I otherwise quote them? I have everything!

More importantly, all other people who lost, they have everything as well.



Here is a detailed time line of the events:


Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

dibley8899 I do not know about the EURCHF trade but if it does not include reversals and is just Armstrong being bullish/bearish then it is meaningless. You simply cannot trade without reversals and how can you know the computer missed unless you had the reversals? The pro version of socrates gives all the reversals and array's only since 2019 why don't we have trade examples from then because prior to the release you needed Armstrong to continuously update you on the next level of reversals that had been generated and elected based on market price movement.

The most recent call by Armstrong on his private blog is if we exceed the November high this month we can rally into the ECM(18 January) price target on the Dow is 30 000. IF we see a high in January in line with the ECM, Armstrong calls for a drop going into the 1st quarter 2021.


AnonymousCoder continues to promote his own agenda regarding Armstrong and links to his website every post. He simply responds to every post with the same message to distort google analytics, this guy is a disgrace. This is why I will not continue to post. He desperately wants to silence anyone who thinks differently. I guess if you repeat a lie long enough it becomes the truth...

He actually links to Wikipedia as if that is a reliable source and then says the stupidest thing you could say, Armstrong spent 11 years in jail for a reason, when the federal conviction rate exceeds 98% and he spent 7 years in contempt before pleading guilty, what kind of criminal spends 7 years in prison before pleading guilty and does that really sound like a choice to you?


If you have a question then send a private message as you can see AnonymousCoder has completely lost it as Alex has previously pointed out. I must of hit a nerve  

BTW that was

Martin Armstrong answers questions about the Swiss PEG at the 2014 WEC




Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Well Gumbi I would like your comments on the video Mr A posted a while back on EURCHF.

It missed a 2000 pip 1 month move and is currently miles away from Armstrongs forecast some 5 years later.....surely socrates couldn't be so wrong?

Or

it could have been a suppository event like the gold short....they are quite painful sometimes.....

Gumbi has admitted here in this forum that he is part of the Armstrong team:


In his latest posts, he does not try to hide this fact any more. The most obvious proof that he is actually part of the clan is that very much like Martin Armstrong himself, he argues based on the ambiguity of the system. You need years of experience and practice with this, to be a good charlatan. Unfortunately for him, this is the place where all this is being debunked. Some days I have engaged him here non-stop full time, so he is wasting a lot of his time posting at bitcointalk. He complains that I am taking over this forum, but when we count his posts ...

Apart from that, he would be better off not posting here any more. Every time he posts, he either talks nonsense or blames other people. This is not good promotion. Without him, this forum would be very quiet because most subjects have already been covered.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

I wonder what is Gumbi's motivation for defending Martin Armstrong and writing one nonsense post after another. He is presumably so knowledgeable about Fake Socrates but cannot show how to make a successful trade. 

Me thinks that this forum is costing a lot of subscriptions to Martin Armstrong and MA knows this and is sweating.
I will not be surprised if Gumbi is Martin Armstrong's hired aid or even The Charlatan Forecaster himself. LOL ... how awesome is that!

AnonymousCoder

It was a tough one to publicly go long because we elected a quarterly bearish and a minor quarterly bullish at the same time.

There have been many calls made by Armstrong and I mean calls that included reversals with the help of the array because the only correct way to use this model is the merger of PRICE  and TIME yet you want to focus on this specific trade and never move from it…

Armstrong has been posting for decades why don't you do some research on other trades made by Armstrong(must include reversals) and get back to me? The public blog will do just fine.

Again, same behavior. You picking a phrase and try to use it to invalidate everything else.

You are ignoring that everybody dealing with this subject knows how to read English, and Armstrong's well-documented statements do not need your special hindsight filtering and interpretation to be digested.

You and Armstrong say the model reversed its position at the end of the year, and that fact is used to promote the Socrates service as being always correct.

However, that fact is the one the clients should have had but it was not available to them at the time. We can't have it both ways.

Everything is documented and quoted.

As previously said, Gumbi's posts get replied to in a way that will remind him of the context in which we showed him that he is a charlatan.

The context is the ambiguity that he uses to defend his ever changing position, claiming he is always right and we are wrong. He does this by picking any one of the many conflicting signals that suits his agenda.

Let him be reminded again that we have a model case where this behavior is documented in much detail. It actually saves time and effort to repeat this as opposed to wasting the time trying to argue this same type of thing without end.

Whatever smokescreen Gumbi and cohorts are coming up with now, they get this reply. I know Gumbi just wants this message to go away but I am not going to do him the favor. I am just not taking his baits for more nonsense any more.

The pattern is the same again and again: Pick one of the ambiguous conflicting Socrates signals in hindsight to argue the case. For us, there is no need to formulate a custom response to that. We use this model case as a standard response reply to show what these charlatans are doing.

I have an obligation to spread the message for the honest people, and as painful as it is for me, I am going to persevere until the Armstrong promoters shut up. So they are warned. The honest people have all the facts on their side.



Here we go. You are providing the proof of my assertion yourself!

Hindsight, Fraud. This hindsight message is fraudulent misrepresentation of performance, pure fraud!

Here you are saying, and I know you are speaking for Martin Armstrong, that


He had this information, this bullish signal, the fact that his model went long - at the end of the year - but at the same time failed to tell his clients?

In fact he sent the opposite signal to his clients at the time!

If he knew this at the time when he claimed the system went long, and let's assume for the sake of argument that what you say is true then he could have been trading against his clients because he published this signal only three months later.

You are not worth the respect of a single honest being on earth! You are a fraud!


And yes, I have all the reports. How could I otherwise quote them? I have everything!

More importantly, all other people who lost, they have everything as well.



Here is a detailed time line of the events:


Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

AnonymousCoder

Armstrong wrote on his private blog on the first of March our quarterly level of the model generated a bullish reversal at the end of the year reversing its short position and going long. This also signaled that gold would rally from the $1060 area and should test the next bullish reversal at the $1347 level."



Key word is "signaled" it did not confirm the move, It could only be confirmed by electing weekly reversals/ which were given on January the 29th

Now we are getting raw insults without facts, based on nonsense. Interesting:

As previously said, Gumbi's posts get replied to in a way that will remind him of the context in which we showed him that he is a charlatan.

The context is the ambiguity that he uses to defend his ever changing position, claiming he is always right and we are wrong. He does this by picking any one of the many conflicting signals that suits his agenda.

Let him be reminded again that we have a model case where this behavior is documented in much detail. It actually saves time and effort to repeat this as opposed to wasting the time trying to argue this same type of thing without end.

Whatever smokescreen Gumbi and cohorts are coming up with now, they get this reply. I know Gumbi just wants this message to go away but I am not going to do him the favor. I am just not taking his baits for more nonsense any more.

The pattern is the same again and again: Pick one of the ambiguous conflicting Socrates signals in hindsight to argue the case. For us, there is no need to formulate a custom response to that. We use this model case as a standard response reply to show what these charlatans are doing.

I have an obligation to spread the message for the honest people, and as painful as it is for me, I am going to persevere until the Armstrong promoters shut up. So they are warned. The honest people have all the facts on their side.



Here we go. You are providing the proof of my assertion yourself!

Hindsight, Fraud. This hindsight message is fraudulent misrepresentation of performance, pure fraud!

Here you are saying, and I know you are speaking for Martin Armstrong, that


He had this information, this bullish signal, the fact that his model went long - at the end of the year - but at the same time failed to tell his clients?

In fact he sent the opposite signal to his clients at the time!

If he knew this at the time when he claimed the system went long, and let's assume for the sake of argument that what you say is true then he could have been trading against his clients because he published this signal only three months later.

You are not worth the respect of a single honest being on earth! You are a fraud!


And yes, I have all the reports. How could I otherwise quote them? I have everything!

More importantly, all other people who lost, they have everything as well.



Here is a detailed time line of the events:


Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Too late. Worthless post. No links, no quotes. Can't be taken seriously.
Try to organize your posts instead of wasting everyone's bandwidth and time.

@MTL4

 We were updated on January 29 2016 on the gold bounce. We were also given on his public blog on July 23rd 2015,  4 weekly bearish reversals and the lowest at 1026 which needed to be elected  before implying a break of $1000. This has been completely ignored by everyone who must of gone short at the end of 2015. The GMW even called for temp lows at the end of December.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-the-bounce-3/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-it-aint-over-until-the-fat-lady-sings/


 I personally do not think Armstrong could of publicly gone long at the end of 2015 based off of one minor quarterly bullish which also can take 1 to 3 quarters before the expected move takes place.


This wasn't just one trade, this went on for most of 2016 and into 2017.

Look at the price movement of gold in 2016 he said in early 2016 that this rally was not a true breakout and he was only wrong about gold not making a new low in 2016. He also said gold will only lift off in 2017 on his private blog. I posted all this previously with his comments on gold through that time period…

But why not talk about other calls on gold made by Armstrong why just focus on one? Even this year he made many great calls on Gold on his private blog.  I mean its almost 2020 and you are talking about a gold play in 2015… what is going on here.

 From 2016 going into late 2018 the private blog was the only place where you would get the array and reversals together with the gaps to the next, this is the only way to actually trade effectively. Even just trading on the election of reversals can work but you can never trade on the sentiment of a public blog and whether Armstrong is bullish or bearish that is a sure way to lose.


The way to use the model is the merger of Reversals and TIME(array)