Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 71. (Read 647170 times)

This will be a pretty critical call for MA's model because on the ECM 2015.75 should have been a transition high but really it turned out to be a low so now 2020.05 should invert the next transition low into a high. The currency arrays also said the same thing so we'll have to see if this actually works out or not.  The markets are due for a correction on my charts as well but the central banks have yet to take their foot off the accelerator just yet.

Interesting Gumbi. Let's wait and see.

The call by Armstrong is for the Dow to make a high In January 2020 in line with the ECM, a high this week with a low the week of 12/02 will confirm this, with a drop back going into 2021(2nd quarter)

No forecast, no prediction here. The prediction will come, if at all, in hindsight, after the fact. Armstrong never predicts anything with any verifiable level of accuracy.

Armstrong does not have any original ideas. For example, it is common knowledge that capital has to flow into equities when interest rates decline and governments become over-indebted.

Armstrong bolts his crazy ECM onto these stolen concepts. His strength is re-publishing, wrapping things up as if they were predicted by his so-called Global Artificial Intelligence Computer which does not exist.

Check his assertions and predictions against the facts and actual events. He usually modifies the facts to fit his narrative. What some observers call predictions are mostly stories produced in hindsight. His ECM is a rigid time machinery constructed around some factors derived from a small series of historical economic events, assuming that history will repeat like a clockwork. If it does not fit, which usually is the case, then he uses mental constructs like cycle inversions and superposition events to fit the failing model to reality.

Most importantly, this model cannot be used for trading purposes. That is because if you want to trade, the first obvious problem to deal with is that his fixed time frame boundaries cannot be aligned with the actual timing of any real world events. Real word events like highs and lows do not align themselves with end of day, end of week , end of quarter, end of year which is what would be required to make Socrates work.

On failure, the system (which in fact is not a system because there is no code that executes the myriad of rules that are made up on the fly) always provides alternative paths of fitting reality in hindsight.

The most glaring workarounds are shifting from one time frame to another until finally something lines up with reality in hindsight. If even that does not work, then a cycle inversion is employed - and the system was right again.

So it is no wonder that people who are trying to make sense out of this get confused. Confusion is the inevitable result.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Hey guys I have to admit that I am totally confused as to exactly what armstrong is predicting next few years

He is on record as saying that the broad market will keep going much much higher because the money that comes out of bonds will have to go somewhere and that only place is equities

But then for the next 3 years he is saying bonds are going to totally crash worst since 1931

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/custodial-risk-in-new-york-city/

So you are saying equities will just keep cruising higher as bond markets default and collapse ?  In 1929 they sure didn't

But then he is also saying that the January 18th 2020 cycle turning point might INVERT and instead be a HIGH for equities

He also saying that the negative yielding debt is a time bomb that is going to explode worse than 2008.  2008 mortgage backed securities was a tiny fraction of what's coming

https://youtu.be/SYvE9L_KZ9w

So what exactly is the forecast from him. Totally confused

I have to agree the year end report for 2018 was a complete waste of money and Armstrong should of updated it at the end of december since the Pro service had not even been released yet.

"The most interesting part is that you have indeed all the reversals of all these markets + 2018 year end report.
So there is no way you are not Armstrong yourself or part of the Armstrong fraud group. "

 I believe the pro service came out in January 2019. You are aware that the pro subscription shows previously elected reversals in this case on the monthly level right? that is how I got all the reversals and its 25 dollars per subscription including 1 free.

Exactly!!

Haha Gumbi, are you really trying to defend this, you are a joke man. I read the report over the Christmas holiday but you are basically saying that everything changed then already! Wow, so Armstrongs year end report is valid for 1 week and then you have to 'think for yourself'. It is strange that you are mentioning all the other reversals, those were not mentioned in the report. So how should one know? You then need a subscription to all the separate markets?

The most interesting part is that you have indeed all the reversals of all these markets + 2018 year end report.
So there is no way you are not Armstrong yourself or part of the Armstrong fraud group.

But everything you say only makes it worse. Everybody here on this blog knows it already:
MARTIN ARMSTRONG IS A FRAUD!

Yes, paying $750 for a Year-end report, then he doesn't even update it before the new year starts

Under what authority can you even speak? you have no idea how the reversal system even works... the array and energy model are simply beyond your comprehension.

 YOU ONLY trade on Reversals!!!!! You want to focus on the words of Armstrong because you have not got a clue how to trade based on the numbers alone so I suggest you look elsewhere this model requires some level of research and understanding on your part.

"The only failure on the part of Armstrong is he never updated his 2018 year report ..."
Right, lol. I think we all missed Martin Armstrong's disclaimer at the end: Everything Martin Armstrong forecasts should be treated as out-of-date and invalid garbage.


P.S. Martin Armstrong is a con artists and Socrates is a scam.

Please don't. It is sad to see that you are still taking the bait and show us the futility of Socrates. Socrtates is a scam.

For those who haven't come to this conclusion:

Socrates is ambiguous. It creates signals in opposite directions on different time frames AND other signals in seemingly different dimensions like forecast arrays without resolving the conflicts. That creates the opportunity for you guys to ALWAYS claim that the system was right. It is pointless to argue about reversals and such.

The Socrates contraption works only in hindsight, by means of cherry-picking. Martin Armstrong never posts any statistics about the overall performance of the system because that would be devastating. And besides, if the system would actually work, he would take it offline and trade based on it.

Armstrong re-publishes facts that are easy to see such as this political divide, corruption etc. and claims that his clockwork universe ECM model predicted it all, again using his hindsight methods. Boring. As dibley8899 just pointed out - everybody can see it. We don't need Martin Armstrong to tell us that many politicians and some governments are corrupt. Or do we?

After reviewing all the facts presented here, one needs to be fairly stupid to believe that the ECM works, even more so to believe that Martin Armstrong is a genius.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Regarding the Dow Jones the year-end report for 2018 came out on the 17 December, the Dow jones dropped another 8% from there, by the close of December we elected 2 major monthly bearish reversals and  tested and penetrated the 3rd monthly bearish reversal at 22415 but never elected it. the fourth monthly bearish was at the 19000 level.
This is a basic hold of support for December suggesting we can move up from here so this move was called perfectly by the reversal system by simply failing to elect its 3rd MAJOR monthly bearish.

You cannot expect Armstrong to update his report every week based on new price movement. You have to start using your own brain power instead of mindlessly trading based on the words of Armstrong which can become  obsolete only a few days/weeks later based on future price movement. The only failure on the part of Armstrong is he never updated his 2018 year report but if you had any idea how the reversal system worked that update would of not be necessary at all.

The  S&P 500 Index dropped another 8% from the release of the 2018 report, we elected 2 monthly bearish reversals at the end of December and penetrated the 3rd major monthly bearish reversals at 2446.54 but failed to elect it.

MA: "The Monthly Bearish Reversals lie at 268230 and 259460. Electing the first will imply a further marginal decline into early 2019 whereas which need a closing below both to imply a test of the 240400-24525 level."

Can you not see your mistake? on the 24 on December the  S&P 500 Index was trading at 2351 at the close clearly testing that level.  Do you have any idea what you are even talking about or how the reversal system works?

  The  Nasdaq dropped another 8% after the release of the 2018 year end report. The Nasdaq elected 3 monthly bearish reversals and held its 4th monthly bearish reversal at 6334.58 which the market penetrated but failed to elect for the end of December.


Why don't you pull up a monthly chart on crude oil and tell me we are not still in a broader bearish position we are currently trading at around 56 dollars, we still have not exceeded the high of 2018...
we clearly did not elect the yearly bearish reversal and we held major monthly reversals at 43.57, 42.10, 39.18 showing strong monthly and yearly support below. we also elected a major monthly bullish at the end of Feb at the 54 level


Would you like me to continue?

Wow, not so fast AnonymousCoder, this "reader" clearly disagrees :

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/socrates/the-hidden-order-the-motive-for-something-greater-than-the-norm/


Armstrong is so shameless lately, it's almost becoming comical

And how the hell does someone study Armstrong's writings 60 hours a week?

LMAO, his FANMAIL is getting really out of control:

Check this one:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-the-future-2/


Well, if this isn't written by Armstrong himself, I don't know what is.

Good post from DanB1!


Everybody knows that the stock market bottoms before the low in economic activity. But Armstrong said in August this year that "The market is in a bearish mode as the Economic Confidence Model heads into its business cycle low come January 2020.". With the market I presume he primarily means the stock market, not the economy. Why the hell would he say that if the stock market usually bottoms way earlier than the economy is beyond me. He should have known that, since he's been doing this for decades.

DanB1, thanks for your effort to get the facts out.

For those who haven't come to this conclusion:

Socrates is ambiguous. It creates signals in opposite directions on different time frames AND other signals in seemingly different dimensions like forecast arrays without resolving the conflicts. That creates the opportunity for Martin Armstrong to ALWAYS claim that the system was right. It is pointless to argue about reversals and such.

His contraption works only in hindsight, by means of cherry-picking. Martin Armstrong never posts any statistics about the overall performance of the system because that would be devastating. And besides, if the system would actually work, he would take it offline and trade based on it.

Armstrong re-publishes facts that are easy to see such as this political divide, corruption etc. and claims that his clockwork universe ECM model predicted it all, again using his hindsight methods. Boring. As dibley8899 just pointed out - everybody can see it. We don't need Martin Armstrong to tell us that many politicians and some governments are corrupt. Or do we?

After reviewing all the facts presented here, one needs to be fairly stupid to believe that the ECM works, even more so to believe that Martin Armstrong is a genius.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

DanB

Thats fantastic proof right there completely wrong. Same as nearly all the rest actually. But Marty says the ECM is economic and not stocks so look out for the drift once theres no top bottom on January 21 I think it is.

Nothing like Monsieur Marty LOL  hehohehoheho

Good afternoon

I would like to share a testimony to Marty:

I am french and have attended a conference of technology in Germany last weekend, in which Barack Obama attended as a guest speaker.
Though I am not American nor Republican, I was really surprised by the tonality and the comments different American speakers voiced during the speeches about Republicans and Donald Trump : uneducated, in denial, egocentric, dumb,… a speaker even said she regretted not having offered a “Dump Trump” sweater to President Obama (quote). I was really surprised to see the level of undisclosed hatred being displayed in a business/public event..

You are absolutely right, the gloves are dropped now, and 2020 will be hectic in the USA…
Thanks a million for your blog and your insights, you are a true teacher to me

Au Revoir folks   

Gumbi, from the 2018 Year end report:

DOW JONES:
MA: "The 2017 closing was 24719.22 and the 2017 high was 24876.07. A lower closing for 2018 will warn that the market is entering 2019 weak."

Danb1: The 2018 close was 23,327.46. Instead of entering 2019 weak we moved up like a rocket. DOW is up ~19% in 2019.


SP500:
MA: "The Monthly Bearish Reversals lie at 268230 and 259460. Electing the first will imply a further marginal decline into early 2019 whereas which need a closing below both to imply a test of the 240400-24525 level."

Danb1: The 2018 close was 2506.85. SPX is up ~23% in 2019.


NASDAQ COMP.:
MA: "The Monthly Bearish Reversal lies at 699110 so this is a key number to watch for the closing of 2018. If elected, we should see a decline further into January."

Danb1: The 2018 close was 6635.28. Nasdaq is up ~28% in 2019 (+9.5% in January!)


DAX:
MA: "We have elected the first two Monthly Bearish Reversals leaving 1060740 as our next in line. The Quarterly Bearish Reversal lies at 1141480 which we are trading below. Electing this will also warn that the DAX is pointing down into 2019 with a target in the 930000 level is also the Monthly Bearish is elected. The Yearly Bearish lies at 835495."

Danb1: The 2018 close was 10,558,96. DAX is up ~25% in 2019


WTI Oil:
MA: "During October, Crude reach 7690 in the Texas market. We already elected two Monthly Bearish Reversals and the next lies at 45.57. We have a Minor Yearly Bearish Reversal at 41.25 and a closing below $85 keeps crude in a broader
bearish position."

Danb1: The 2018 close was $45.21. WTI is up ~27% in 2019.



Look at the numbers yourself.

Would you like me to continue?

We elected 2 monthly bearish reversals at the end of December 2018 and penetrated the 3rd monthly bearish at 22415 but never elected it. Remember that all 4 monthly bearish reversals need to be elected to change the trend. At the end of January 2019 we elected a monthly bullish reversal.