Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 69. (Read 647170 times)

Gumbi, this is the issue I have with what you are saying.  If you are really using this system to trade you need to know exactly when you are in/out of a position even if you are occasionally wrong (it is quite possible to be wrong over 50% of the time and still have a winning strategy).  All successful trading systems I'm aware of have very strict rules for exactly this reason and they must be followed at all times for it to work.  As a trader I don't want to read some verbose consulting report every day which may say "we are currently hypothetically long 4 positions at this particular moment on the monthly level".  Trading takes hard work and hours during each day are very limited so why would some $100 million system waste our time like that?  Typing in questions and speaking to it like Siri/Alexa is a novelty that visual folks used to reading charts won't care about one iota.  You are given tons of technical BS with Socrates but the issue is you are still being left to decipher it (I have yet to see anyone do this successfully on a consistent basis).  If the system is that good then have it (computer is the expert, right?) interpret the info for us and display it in a table or chart.  That way there's no room for error and everyone wins.  I really don't see why this is even remotely hard to do even with my relatively low computer programming skills.  You'd think that would be priority #1 when designing a system for financial folks to use.

@DanB1 you are absolutely right. The System and by that I mean Socrates and the many rules around it, is designed to be ambiguous or vague as you say. So that it can always be interpreted in hindsight to be right because it hasn't actually predicted anything definitive that can't be revoked later. That is because it puts out multiple conflicting signals such as reversal, energy, forecast array (and the different rows in it to pick from) plus all of the above in multiple time frames. See Socrates Technical Analysis Prediction Magic for a more detailed description.

That it why we say it is a hindsight system that cannot be used for trading.

It is a computer-based scam engine by design that is used to extract money from subscribers, and it has obviously worked to that end for years, except that it only creates losses for the users not gains.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

To me, this last answer doesn't feel right.
I get the idea it's now more like: yes, it might play out like that but not sure, and if it doesn't than I'm still right because there were back to back directional changes and you were not smart enough to understand!
And that's exactly the vagueness in every text that Socrates publishes, it can go both ways.

Alex Gumbi and Marty are still going at it lol.

Didn't Marty post a sell on stocks a couple of weeks back because the market dropped for a day or 2.......hmmmmmm.......new highs Marty lol.

Alex still waiting for your actual real trading data trading this nonsense. Gumbi Marty here is a link to your post

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/britain/the-coming-british-elections/

Currently the blue that you have heading hard down is conservative which is actually heading hard upwards and appears to be stretching the lead by all recent polls.

Ah well must be an inverse supposition event combined with a plateuing trading cycle and reversal on the secondary array.

Phew as monica said that was quite a mouthful.

Thanks for Posting this Gumbi. For some reason I missed it.

@DanB1
 The play is still on but should be choppy, we have back to back directional changes going into February.

@MTL4
The Socrates premium analysis  does go long or short hypothetically a number of positions based on the election of reversals from the daily to the monthly time level which I believe is the same as the chart you posted for example the Dow premium analysis monthly commentary says "we are currently hypothetically long 4 positions at this particular moment on the monthly level"
 
Armstrong mentioned that phase II of Socrates will add a backtesting feature to see what Socrates wrote on any given day.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/socrates/progress-report-on-socrates-deployment/


I think at this time we just don't have access to the chart which would be very helpful but there is still many other features that need to be added to the pro service

That's not so difficult MTL4. Because you can not do it before the move itself.
Only after the move you can add "buy" or "sell" and show that you have nailed every move;)

Gumbi, riddle me this........if the system is so intelligent and straight forward then why doesn't MA just have Socrates do all the analysis for you?

https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Dow-Trader-DJIND-Y-8-2017.jpg

I mean real traders need clear signals so why be so vague and complicated, we know he has posted these charts several times, why is this not available?

I think that you can not win this argument as MA/Gumbi will always come up with new reversals and other numbers and/or array's, it's always us that don't understand their brilliant computer.

Anyway, Gumbi has said that MA's computer now says that last week was a high and we will go down into week 49, turning and making a new high in January.
That will be the high around the ECM turning and we will go down into Q2 2021:



@Gumbi, or am I wrong? You never know, the set-up might have changed.

So let's see what happens. If it doesn't happen like this that will be big miss by the Armstrong team.

Now Gumbi feels victorious because I used the term "period" for his term "time unit" in his small Socrates universe of randomness which gets him all confused.

That doesn't change the fact that between min and max there is a factor of 6 between minimum 0.5 (not 1) and 3 units of time after I adjust to that, because of premature trade termination. Guessing between 0.5 and 3 to get it right is a lot of ambiguity.

So far nothing has changed. We need to have hindsight knowledge to end the trade somewhere in this range.

Because otherwise, we are potentially missing out on huge profit opportunities when the price races across the next few reversals - which we cannot trade because the we are at 0.5 time unit length and have to wait for the end of the month because that is the only time when election can occur. We have to wait because according to the rule we exited the trade because it was only good until the price reached the next reversal.

Meanwhile, Gumbi will perhaps say that we have daily, weekly and so on to trade, which on other occasions he will advise not to trade - only monthly.

So Socrates will keep us busy making all these human guesses while we are losing a lot of money with Socrates.

What Gumbi cannot see is that we understand everything in his little Socrates random universe.

He knows that I can provide as many failing reversals as I want because I have the data to do it. It took him months, yes, months later he came back, to pick this one so he can feel right.

But he is wrong. He is always wrong. I don't even feel like providing any other examples to challenge him at this time. Why?

Because while he and his followers are wrestling with all his toys of the Socrates universe, and while they blame themselves and others for not guessing right in hindsight, they waste all this time on this Socrates random universe which has nothing to do with the actual markets. They are not making money and they are losing the ability to trade because they are dealing with some kind of pseudo science which is totally worthless, created by these crackpots.

They miss all the opportunities that unfold outside the Socrates random universe. They are doing this while the OTHERS make the money. The others are lucky enough that they might not even have heard about Martin Armstrong, which is perhaps the best case scenario. And they are making money without paying any type of subscription to anybody. And I still laugh my head off.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

AnonymousCoder
If what you say is actually true and I don't dispute it then the meaning of a period is lost.


Again this is incorrect the period in time is defined by the reversal in question, the period has always been a unit of 3.
The election of a reversal normally indicates that the expected high or low that should unfold  in as short a time span as 1 to 3 units of time, be it daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly

The next monthly bearish reversal was 1.749% away what in the hell are you talking about? Did you think it was going to take until the end of May to test it?


"We recommend to align Reversals with Forecast Arrays to further strengthen your research, identifying potential convergence of time and price." (Socrates user manual)

You don't understand the energy model, you don't understand the array, and you don't understand the reversal system… Period.

If what you say is actually true and I don't dispute it then the meaning of a period is lost. The wider you cast the interpretation of the rules, the less meaningful and more ambiguous they become. I do understand these rules but by accepting these rules, one acknowledges that the confidence with which a trade can be executed approaches the value of zero because the computer generated signals lose all meaning, leaving everything to human interpretation, with an ever increasing number of parameters to consider such as energy and whatever you call it.

It is quite telling that as you previously stated, one needs months or years to understand the system. That should not be necessary for an advanced system because one would expect that the computer can execute these rules which it cannot do obviously. If it did so, then you guys would no longer be able to shift the blame to the users. It is that simple. If it did execute the rules as your hindsight wisdom prescribes, then it would become obvious that the system loses money and that is the last thing that you guys want. It is that simple.

That "system" is simply not viable because it is based on 30 years old ideas and technology.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

AnonymousCoder
"Now we are getting to the next point. You are arguing that the elected reversal, which is not a daily reversal, and which is not a weekly reversal but it is a monthly reversal, we should exit it prematurely after half the period's duration. There is nothing in the Socrates system that indicates such a premature exit."

You just keep making it worse for yourself you are again showing a complete misunderstanding of the reversal system.

I don’t think anyone is going to agree with  you here this is just a misunderstanding on your part, the election of a monthly bearish reversal and market moving to test the next monthly bearish can occur the very next trading day there is no set time period as to how fast it will move towards it and Armstrong has never said anything like what you are describing with the premature exit nonsense.

Well, at least you admit that the reversal was in fact elected, which you first did not but I forced you to do because the numbers are the numbers. Don't ever tell me again that I don't know how the reversal system works, right? You are simply no match for me.

Now we are getting to the next point. You are arguing that the elected reversal, which is not a daily reversal, and which is not a weekly reversal but it is a monthly reversal, we should exit it prematurely after half the period's duration. There is nothing in the Socrates system that indicates such a premature exit. The price could have equally gone lower and therefore we would have missed a major move. This would perhaps happen in 50% of all other cases. I have seen it many times. I have exited such trades, based on reversals and matching turning points and the price just kept moving in the same direction for two more periods or more. This is completely random, and I am 100% sure you know this.

What this actually means is that this judgement is completely in hindsight, because the system does NOT report any signal that would prematurely end the trade. Therefore the system cannot be verified and is therefore useless. If what you say was actually relevant statistically, then your stupid Global Artificial Intelligence Computer would easily just provide that OBVIOUS information, in a way as obvious as you describe it. Why not? But no, that computer cannot do that, and we are left with the burden of deciding exit between a fraction of the period's duration up to three. That renders the meaning of a period useless.

Your behavior clearly demonstrates that you guys are all part of this scam, that system that allows you mafia guys to misrepresent the performance of it by shifting the burden to the user while still arrogantly claiming that your Socrates contraption uses some kind of artificial intelligence.

Here we have the proof. While I actually never executed a wheat trade based on Socrates, I am now getting blamed for not executing your hindsight wisdom, as any other user would be blamed, as I am sure they have been, while your Global Artificial Intelligence Computer is made look as good as if it was perfect. That is the fraud I am talking about.

You guys are truly disgusting, not worth to be respected by any honest human being.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Just checked and  it was in May 2019 that we tested and penetrated the next monthly bearish reversal point 4211 on wheat futures so it was bearish at the end of April. There were clusters of minor and major  monthly bearish reversals indicating strong levels of support at.
42110
41030
41500
40450
39230

 FROM SOCRATES USER GUIDE "The significance of these gaps lies in the fact that once a Reversal is Elected, the financial instrument has a tendency to test the next Reversal. It may or may not elect that next Reversal, but has a tendency to approach it. Hence, when the gap between two subsequent Reversals is large, the entry of a market position upon election of the first Reversal presents a potentially more favourable risk-reward scenario than when the gap is small. "
"Example of a potentially scenario: "
"a long trade could be entered upon election of the Major Weekly Bullish Reversal with a target price (MIT) of the next subsequent Weekly Bullish Reversal for trade exit."


"On Friday, 2019-04-30 /ZW Wheat Futures definitely elected a Monthly Bearish Reversal, that, if had it been traded for the month, would have produced a loss of 17.4%." https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/

So are you saying you didn’t enter at the end of April because of 1.79% difference between the reversal elected and the next monthly reversal, which we in fact tested and penetrated in May 2019.  I really can't see the issue here??  we elected a monthly bearish reversal in April 2019 and tested the next in May what is your point?

The election of a reversal implies a move to the second and so on...   You do realize if you went short at the end of April the gap to the next monthly reversal was only 1.79% and once the market tested/penetrated it you would exit if you understood the reversal system, again please read the Socrates user guide!!!!!!!!!!!


A possible change in trend appears due come May in Wheat CBT Futures so be focused. And that’s exactly what happened we changed direction in May after making a new low intraday on the monthly level.
Must be just a coincidence right? and if you look at the monthly array here https://ibb.co/qxrWsNq it shows September as a turning point too which turned out to be a low is that also just a coincidence?

Well, after this report dump, everybody can now check out how they would interpret the principle of reversal election and decide whether they trust the reports or not. On the 29th:

while the Bearish Reversal lies at 4455. Follow the numbers. I am sick of Gumbi's bullshit.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

SOCRATES Detailed Analysis
THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Tue. Apr. 30, 2019: Wheat CBT Futures closed below our indicating ranges on the Daily level and it also settled beneath our broder set of 10 indicators indicating weakness at this moment. The market closing today at 4286 is immediately trading down about 14% for the year from last year's closing of 5032. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established during the last trading session. The Wheat CBT Futures made a new low penetrating the previous session's low and then closed below that level plunging significantly by 4.61%. A break of today's low of 4260 during the next trading session will warn of a potential serious decline ahead. This market has declined for 1 trading day. However, we have not elected any bearish Reversals to date.

The Uptrend Line from the last low created at 4554 tied to the secondary low made on04/29 remains as resistance standing at 4320. Only getting above this level on a sustained closing basis will signal a rally to the upside

Presently, the market remains quite bearish below all our system support indicators with resistance starting at 4344. The broader cyclical system indicators are also in a bearish position while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish. This market has technically broken through the bottom of our projected envelope of support at 4318 warning this decline has been rather reasonable down 10% from the high made 03/26. We have elected all four Bearish Reversals from that high showing weakness. We have four Daily Bullish Reversals above the market at 4435, 4475, 4625, and 4717.



From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. To date, we have continue to trade within last year's range of 5930 to 5930. . This suggests that a closing below the previous year's low should imply a continued decline into 2020 remains possible. A closing above 5032 would imply a possible correction with a retest of the downside becomes possible into 2021.

This market on the daily level has been making retesting key support beneath the last low of 4260 established back Tue. 30th. The Channel Technical Support rests at 4239 for the next session. A closing below that will signal a break to the downside once again. Currently, we are trading below all our Indicating Ranges, which suggests that projected support below the market resides at 4054. The Downtrend Line resistance stands above the market at 4433. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 4737 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 4385. This provides a 7.43% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 5550 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 4211. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 24%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 4286, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 9.52% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come May in Wheat CBT Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during December 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 4260 but closed on the weak side and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.

The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 4474. Thus far, we are still within a reactionary phase down one daily session.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of March 11th at 4270, which was down 5 weeks from the high made back during the week of February 4th. We have seen the market decline further this week dropping to 4260 and we still remain beneath resistance standing at 4344. The market has remain a bit weak as of the immediate close of this session.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We can see this market has been down for the past week. The previous high made during the week of March 25th on the Weekly level at 4780 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 4270 made during the week of March 11th on the Weekly level, has now been broken in the recent decline here during 4/22 and the market is trading beneath it thereby inferring weakness. However, we still remain above key support 4342 on a closing basis.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 5384 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during December 2018. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 5930 back during August 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 4103 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The previous high made during December 2018 on the Monthly level at 5384 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 4104 made during December 2017 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 4270 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 4952 above the market.

SOCRATES Detailed Analysis
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Mon. Apr. 29, 2019: Wheat CBT Futures closed below our indicating ranges on the Daily level. The market closing today at 4352 is immediately trading down about 13% for the year from last year's closing of 5032. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 11 days, while we have made a low at 4336 following the high established Fri. Apr. 12, 2019, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 4466 would imply a retest of the previous high. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 4466 and closed below that same low creating an outside reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 2.91%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side and it remains below all our internal momentum cyclical support models as well. We have elected 4 Bearish Reversals from the cyclical high established on 04/29. Electing all four Bearish Reversals tends to confirm we have a near-term correction unfolding.

Currently, the market remains quite bearish below all our system support indicators with resistance starting at 4360. The broader cyclical system indicators are also in a bearish position while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish. This market is also trading mostly below the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now. The market is trading within our envelope albeit skewed to the bearish side. This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 4780. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.



Turning to the broader cyclical outlook, the map of the future is certainly interesting. To date, we have continue to trade within last year's range of 5930 to 5930. . This suggests that a closing below the previous year's low should imply a continued decline into 2020 remains possible. A closing above 5032 would imply a possible correction with a retest of the downside becomes possible into 2021.

Timing Models are always critical and there is a chance of a rally moving into the week of April 29th, which is reinforced by also a Directional Change Target with the opposite trend thereafter into the week of May 6th (NOTE: this can be intraday or on a closing basis).

The strongest target in the Weekly array is the week of May 27th for a turning point ahead, at least on a closing basis. It does appear we have a choppy period starting the week of April 22nd until the week of May 27th with each target producing the opposite direction for that 6-week period. Thereafter, we see the next target coming into play as the week of June 10th until the week of July 1st with again each target producing the opposite direction for that 4-week period. However, the important target during that period will be the week of July 1st. We have elected 3 Bearish Reversals from the last high thus far to date. This is especially true since we are below all our indicating ranges confirming weakness. Making a new low in the next session will imply a broader decline if the market penetrates 4235 and closes below that number.

There are 2 Weekly Directional Change targets starting from the week of April 29th to the week of May 6th warning of a potential choppy swing period for these few Weeks.

This market on the weekly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established the week of March 11th. However, we did elect 3 Bearish Reversals from the high formed on the week of March 25th which provided the decline into the week of April 22nd. Then we did manage to elect 3 Bullish Reversal which gestured the rally after the low of the week of April 22nd. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 4737 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 4385. This provides a 7.43% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 5550 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 4455. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 19%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 4352, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 8.12% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come June in Wheat CBT Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during December 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 4270 but closed on the positive side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 4780 to 4270. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 4482. To date, this decline has been down for eleven daily sessions.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of March 11th at 4270, which was down 5 weeks from the high made back during the week of February 4th. We have seen the market decline further this week dropping to 4336 and we are back above resistance which is beginnjing to now form initial support at 4344. The market has remain a bit weak as of the immediate close of this session.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We can see this market has been down for the past week. The previous high made during the week of March 25th on the Weekly level at 4780 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 4270 made during the week of March 11th on the Weekly level has held and only a break of 4422 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 4342 on a closing basis.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 5384 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during December 2018. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 5930 back during August 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 4103 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The previous high made during December 2018 on the Monthly level at 5384 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 4104 made during December 2017 on the Monthly level. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 4952 above the market.

Original Post


Monthly bearish 4455 elected at close of 4286 on 2019-04-30


You are evasive. we are talking about THIS 4455 reversal, and it was elected.

I am not going to waste my time with the charts and any other reversals. I go by the relevant numbers only.

The pro version risk tables:

2019-04-29
Wheat CBT Futures Risk Table

 ----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---
MONTHLY.......     5550 | 27.52% | 4455 | -2.36% |



2019-04-30
Wheat CBT Futures Risk Table

 ----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---
MONTHLY.......     5550 | 29.49% | 4211 | 1.749% |


So you see that the next reversal on 2019-04-29 was 4455, which then got replaced on 2019-04-30 by 4211 as expected because of the election. That is all we need to know.

Whatever was penetrated but not elected previously does not matter - not elected.
What really matters here that there is only ONE indication in ANY of the reports about what was elected is this (in case of bearish):

The next number that is still above the price of end of period price, listed as reversal one day before end of period. This is 4455. There is no other way to see this. And it is the same number as in the standard reports which should be consistent because you don't want to sell garbage to those who use the standard reports, do you? You want all numbers to be consistent, don't you?

I repeat: 4455 was the first electable number, and it was elected. That is not rocket science. Anything else is a distraction. How on earth otherwise would ANY user find out what the next electable reversal is?

If you disagree with this, then this is proof that YOU don't know how the reversal system is DEFINED.

Absolutely.

How it works, well, that seems to change by the day apparently with all the bugs and excuses that seem to be popping up everywhere. I am sick of your bullshit.









Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

I hope you are listening because we did in fact test and penetrate 421.1 in April which was the 4th monthly bearish reversal. Do you know how the reversal system even works?