Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 90. (Read 647176 times)

I agree, @Gumbi, @Alex-11, come and show us your live trades using Socrates and show us that it works.
If you don't then please do not bother us anymore with just how great this system is and how wrong we are.

Is anyone even surprised?

Just look how Martin Armstrong makes these arrays up. It is documented here:

https://www.ask-socrates.com/How-To-Use-Forecasting-Arrays#TradingCycle

Bullish and bearish markets have empirical nominal duration that last specific time units (days, weeks, months years):
 - Bullish: 7-11-14-21 time units
 - Bearish: 2-3-5-6-10-12-18 time units


OK, every clock is right twice a day. Your mileage may vary ...

This numerology magic may turn out to be a very crude random number generator at best.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

@Gumbi, You are JOKING, right?  How about you EXPLAIN the TRADE for the ECM of 2015.75 that is ALREADY BEHIND US, when Armstrong was screaming bloody hell about PEAK of Government confidence?

Now you have the supreme advantage of the hindsight, explaining an ECM trade for PEAK of Government confidence.  Please tell me.

If you cannot trade that ECM date, HOW can you trade the next ECM date?

And Armstrong LIED about ECM being accurate "down to the day", and your attitude is like, "oh, I don't care about his lying at all, because I can just trade the ECM."

SURE, tell us how to do that for 2015.75!

EVERY trader with some experiences would know shorting government bonds (government confidence) is the "best trade" for that, and they would have lost their shirts and homes, if they leverage the trade.

Please tell us how to short at the peak of government confidence with profits!

Exactly. I rally cannot see the purpose of digging into this hindsight chart. What is the purpose of that stuff?

Alex11 you are extremely naive. Do you think we are idiots? Who would want to waste time with that?

Plus markets are trading sideways more often than not.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

@Alex-11, @Gumbi, Just post your trades in real time.  Any HINDSIGHT historical data/phantom trades are NOT useful.  They are easily tempered and cannot be verified.

If Socrates is that great, it will be extremely EASY for you to post a winning trade.  EXTREMELY EASY.

The July PANIC month is a JOKE AGAIN (like the February Panic Month)!  How many times do I need to say that?  Armstrong's Arrays do NOT work at ALL.


Also, regarding to a comment that Armstrong's system may work well for a trending market, but doesn't work well for a side-way market, here is my opinion on that.

Whatever trading system, it MUST work on ALL kinds of markets.  At such time when people realize that the market is TRENDING, that is already HINDSIGHT from the technical analysis.  Whether it's trending in months or in years, by the time you realize that it is TRENDING, it is kind of LATE, and not much profits left to be made.

You cannot apply the trading system, and just hope that you're applying it in the correct environment.  If I know whether the market will be going sideway, or trending down, or trending up, for the NEXT 6 months, I can ALREADY use that information for successful trades, withOUT using ANY trading system, whether it's from Armstrong or not.


So again, I want to repeat, ONLY live trades qualify to prove any trading systems (including Armstrong).  Nothing else with some hindsight knowledge sneaked in here or there through backdoor is just trying to fake the result.

If you guys want to keep your "knowledge" that "Socrates works great" to yourself without showing it, that is FINE, and you should NOT participate in this forum.  We are all here waiting to SEE how Socrates can work successfully.  You don't want to show it, that is FINE.  Just stay AWAY.  Otherwise, anything else that quotes "historical trades" with hindsight is just propaganda.

Just to repeat again:
The July PANIC month is a JOKE AGAIN (like the February Panic Month)!  How many times do I need to say that?  Armstrong's Arrays do NOT work at ALL.

Those are reversals (major, I'd say). You can use major reversals only or minor and major reversals for more frequent trading. There are even 2 more reversal levels. Those can all be included or left out and just focus on majors only
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/socrates/reversals-are-scalable/

the first

It's the closing price. Only when it is really close to the reversal, one would probably wait until the next business day but that is not considered in this calculation because I don't know the exact reversals.

correct, but you can still leverage the pyramid.

The chart was posted in Feb. 2016, but in general , consolidation periods are not a strength of the reversals when using them as buy/sell signals without arrays.

***************************
Please read on page 305/306 about the nonsense that is spread about Armstrong

I agree. It seems to be worse than what you describe.

I tried three times to get zerohedge membership with the single purpose of being able to comment on their articles. All attempts failed.

I have the suspicion, that zerohedge sells pre-defined comments as part of their package.

Otherwise I cannot explain how Martin Armstrong's articles on zerohedge get public comments 100% biased exclusively in his favor. If I cannot comment then there is no other conclusion.

Armstrong does not really have genuine ideas and research. It is all re-published at best. Content aggregation at its cheapest level. And I think it is a crime because he sells his crap as being the solution of this problem, claiming the higher ground, for the people looking for answers.

Then he builds this Socrates contraption that he uses to rip people off without having to even write anything.

I really do not have any words for this any more.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

This is what I was addressing and can not be attributed to the subject. All the sites, news and blogs do it. I stopped visiting Zero Hedge in 2013 for this very reason, sensationalism for Clicks for ads. To me this is more of a scheme and scam, every Article is the sky is falling, market crash, banks stealing your money, central banks are evil and cops breaking down your door for the first paragraph but have to click to read the entire gloom and doom article with zero value. Only to find out it is just blah blah blah, from some dudes opinion. That's dishonest, deceitful, disgraceful, etc. Don't you agree? My point is they all do it to grab your attention dishonestly and should be pointed out.

It is still pathetic, sensationalist. Whose video? Who is the majority of protesters and what is their level of violence? Using the close-up of the violence of a single cop does not show that this is the same thing as in Venezuela. And this has to do with the mismanagement of taxes? This might be something else perhaps the consequence of political correctness where certain kinds of political / violent / racist / ideological / you name it movements were allowed to grow to the level where they cannot be contained any more. We really don't know from this article what is going on. Martin Armstrong the incompetent mud-slinging flame-throwing moron analyzes the world at a distance with his notebook computer.

With three sentences. THAT is what the problem is.

Martin Armstrong does not care about details.

This is the proof. Disgusting.

That is why whatever Martin Armstrong produced did not function and whatever he will produce will not function, either.

I hope we are still discussing Martin Armstrong and not the situation in France. That is why I did not want to go into the details myself.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I believe you were looking at a different video. The one he posted clearly shows a Cop knocking out a female with his baton. I agree with most of what is assessed here but this video is far from police politeness.

Here goes insane Marty again:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/france/macrons-french-police-opening-attacking-the-people-seriously-injuring-if-not-trying-to-kill-them/


Maybe I saw a different video, but I think that the French police here was really polite against the quite extreme protesters. What a total sensationalist.

I would like to dive into the historical testing of the DJ you  gave the Link.  I cope your article from the other forum:


Socrates Dow buy / sell signals - profit calculation
Armstrong has published the buy and sell signals for the Dow on the below long term chart. He has mentioned the "net profit/loss" number, but that in itself is not telling much about the real profit that could have been made. I've Iooked at every single position and calculated this chart with some real position and equity numbers. The following was the outcome.

Positions are additive and for simplicity I've taken the initial Dow at 7000 points = 7000$ for 1 position, but this can of course be scaled up or down. Depending on how much drawdown you are willing to accept (or capital / leverage is used), the below table shows the profit that could have been made.
Since the initial position size of 7000$ will change over time, the average position size during those 18 year was 10.500$ per position . The maximum number of open positions at one point was 9 positions which equals around 120.000$ in total. This was between 2004 and 2008 and all 9 open buy positions were closed in 2008 when the first sell signal came up. Then the first sell position was opened when the bear market ongoing. In 2002 the amount of sell positions was 9 positions (from 9 sell signals) which results to about 76.000$ in total, In Oct. 2002 all 9 sell positions were closed and a buy position was opened at the same time.
There was one period during 2008 and 2009 where 8 positions were accumulated (= 55.000$) and and in 2013 til 2015 it were 5 positions ( = 70.000$)
The average equity used over the 18 years was 35.000$ in this example.
The maximum drawdown happened during 1999 and 2011 were 3 consecutive open positions were closed with loses during a choppy period.
These numbers are calculated on the long term. There were 3 bull markets and 2 bear markets during that 18 year period. To take advantage of these numbers, one should to stick to those signals for at least 2 years (better 3 or ideally 18 years), I would say. As Armstrong also said, these signals work well during bull or bear markets. If the markets move sideways for a long time (several years), then signals don't work so well without timing.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The below values are related to the average equity invested over the whole time period of 18 years. In this case it is 35.000$
9 simultaneously open positions max. = 120.000$ max. investment at some point.
Max. drawdown is related to the average equity.

Max. drawdown 9% profit 160% (56.000$ without leverage)
Max. drawdown 18% profit 320%
Max. drawdown 27% profit 480%
Max. drawdown 36% profit 640% (224.000$ - with a leverage of 4x per position)
Max. drawdown 45% profit 800%
Max. drawdown 55% profit 960% (336.000$ - with a leverage of 6x per position)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since having 120.000$ invested at some point might not be an option for everyone, I've calculated this for fewer positions as well
and skipping everything above that position number. This is given that the initial positions size is 7000$ per position and position size is growing over time.

3 simultaneously open positions max = (40.000$ max.) - 10.500$ in average per position , average equity used during the 18 years = 23.000$
The 40.000 for 3 positions were only invested from 2012 to 2015. In 2001 there were 30k used for about 14 month, 31k in 2005 until 2008 and 34k for about 6 month in 2008. Rest of the time the equity was below 20 to 25k depending on the no. of positons (1 or 2).

Max. drawdown 15% profit 160% (37.000$ without leverage))
Max. drawdown 30% profit 320% (74.000$ - with a leverage of 2x per position)
Max. drawdown 45% profit 480% (111.000$ - with a leverage of 3x per position)
Max. drawdown 60% profit 640% (148.000$ - with a leverage of 4x per position)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

During 1997 til 2015 the Dow itself had a max. drawdown of 50% (in 2008) and a total profit of around 250%. However, who could have known that it really goes up to 17.000 - 18.000 in 2012 with all of the banking crisis and subprime crisis going on. Who would have bought and sold the Dow during the panic of 2001 or 2008 correctly?

So in my opinion those signals were very successful compared to the Dow itself and it is super-simple to follow. You just have to consider the buy and sell signals by looking once a month at Socrates.
What also needs to be considered is position size, leverage, duration of investment, trading tools (ETF's or alike), the max. number of positions and the max. drawdown that can be accepted. Profits could be re-invested and additional equity could be added over time so that one doesn't have to start with 120k or 35k equity from the beginning.
With only 3 open positions max. it may happen that one is not trading at all for 2 years because there were more than 3 positions open at the same time. Also a leverage of 2x - 3x would be good to compensate inflation.

This one took me several full days to collect the data and create the formulas. Quite some work...

[Image: does not copy]

*** Update 1 ***
some stats on 9 positions strategy : 49 trades in total - 36 win / 13 lost
some stats on 3 positions strategy : 49 trades in total - 30 traded (20 win / 10 lost) - 19 trades omited (more then 3 trade at the same time)

Ok here are my first questions:

- What are the signals exactly?   Are they  based on the reversals he publishes on Socrates now ? Since I remeber MA saying the signals are only available to corporate clients.

- Assuming the "system" is long:  When is the  long position closed and a short position entered?  At the first reversal, or second, or third or forth?

- At what price is the new position entered?  Since the  market must close the month  below the monthly reversal (in case of a potential new bear market) is the trade executed at the close of the month (in the last hour or so)   or on the opening prices of the new month.  Makes sometimes a big difference.

Also I would not call adding to a position (leveraging).  I would call it pyramiding.

Also why does the run end 2016 at Dow 17000.  It would be interesting to see the results of the move to 27'000 (easy) then down to 24'000 then up to 27'000 ten down to 22'000 then up again to 27'000 now    (all not so easy !).

thanks for your response.

I agree a single trade is not enough (50-100 would be a much better sample) but I want to see someone actually post up a single Socrates trade in advance so everyone can verify the results.  Gumbi did one and said DOW would drop to a certain level, I commented it would rebound off resistance and reverse and not surprisingly that's almost exactly what happened.  The problem with the rest of this linked trading data is that as others have pointed out we have no idea what was a call or not (easy to make up after the fact) so I think a healthy skepticism is always warranted.  If this system really works lets see an actual trade in real time that had a decent profit.  To say I'll only comment when everyone agrees with me or believes that this system is awesome is ridiculous, I hope you can see why that's true. I've seen him make some good macro calls but MA's "Trade of the Century" is a great example of where he creates hype and still remains completely vague about what exactly it is he's forecasting for trading.  I can't figure out what he's doing here, is he waiting to tell everyone after it happens so he can say he nailed it again?

Alex-11, if you have a Socrates live trade to show how well this system works post it up, we're all happy to follow along.



Gumbi, are you telling us you work for MA?

since this system is not perfect, 1 trade is not enough. One should post 10 trades and should win at least 7 AND make a profit. Or make only an appropriate profit out of the 10.
if there is a bad week or month and you loose the trade, then this doesn't prove anything. Or if you have 9 small looser and 1 that is the Jackpot, it also doesn't prove anything. It could also have been just luck.

WIth this analysis there are 50 trades and 36 of them made profit's. This is a good set of data. 36 win's are of course also not enough. One has to actually make profit and this was the case. Charts like this are also available on the weekly level.

I'm not in the need to try to convince anyone about how good Socrates is. I'm just here to discuss things with like-minded people who have also invested a lot of time into Socrates. And sometimes I feel compelled to respond to apparently false statements.

Some of it I checked recently and it  turned out to be incorrect.

Spot on!  Enough of all this convoluted BS about reversals and elections, I'm just looking for someone that can actually use it to create a winning trade, even just one.  Gumbi tried it and that didn't work so anyone that claims to be able to trade or make money off this system (Gumbi, Alex-11, over45, StrikeEagle26, anyone?) please post up a trade.  If nobody can even do that then I think it's fair to say this doesn't work at least for trading.

I could agree with this.


but this is beyond my comprehension;

The Dow already broke out as I've shown, Dow 27K has been resistance for 1.5 years and broke out on July 12, 2019. I added and opened positions 1.5/2 weeks prior to this. Does MA or you know the definition of a breakout? Well just to clarify;
I also did mention that the Dow was approaching overbought and is now consolidating and forming a "Flag" on the weekly chart which is preparing for a move to a higher level, probably on Wednesday, Fed day. Please, can you tell me how MA is gonna reconcile this on 1/2020? Same goes for the S&P, broke 2965 in July also quite the resistance and Nasdaq making new highs? I know I asked this before but I'll ask again, did the reversal system print 27k or there about, as a bullish reversal?

Socrates reversal system is nothing more then a confirmation system (If it catches the move) and waiting only makes traders lose opportunity. I remember after the Dec carnage on his public blog he stated that Socrates generated a bullish reversal some 20% above the bottom and how he never seen such a large gap, again does this number exist? Not sure if he was trying to promote Socrates but the tone was of an anomaly. I searched for this on his blog but can't seem to find it, maybe someone can recheck and find it. But back to the point, if you do exactly as he states, trade by the number, Socrates would have you wait for that bullish reversal to be elected before you enter a position which would be 20% from the bottom, WTH! Granted, if you are a buy and hold you can wait it out but day, swing and short term trading can only hurt you. FWIW I'm not to confident about his long term calls either.

                                              

Regardless if his trading system is a sham or not his knowledge on economic history and current macro economics and politics is gold.

Exactly.

His comments on the private blog (when I still had access) clearly stated that he didn't expect December to be the bottom. After the rally was gaining more and more steam, Armstrong kept talking about retesting or correcting and being very cautious numerous times. After this (and a historic 25% rally) I really had it with Armstrong, Socrates and his bullshit. It was the final proof for me that his system does not work. Not only were his readers missing out on big gains, they were probably also losing money with shorting.

Then he tries to diss Dahlio for missing the rally (okay, what the hell?) and says that his 21st November 2018 ECM date had correctly predicted the correction. That really sounded like a delusional conman.

This is what Socrates/MA said about the DOW in the 2018 Year End Report:


"The US share market is still trying to figure out which way to move next.  As I have stated number of times, ideally after 8 years up in 2018, there should be a correction.
The formation of the high in 2018 was not indicative of a bubble top since the Nasdaq peaked in August, the SP500 peaked in September and the DOW in October.
No major bubble high has ever formed with such disparity."

In the end the conclusion was:
(Please note: in 2018 the DOW closed at 23.327,46)

"The 2017 closing was 24719.22 and the 2017 high was 24876.07. A lower closing for 2018 will warn that the market is entering 2019 weak.
We do have a Monthly Bearish reversal at 23344 following 21600. The quarterly bearish reversal lies at 22416 followed by 20378. While there remains a risk of retest of support in January 2019, the scope of this decline will hinge on the Monthly and Quarterly Bearish reversals. If these Reversals hold, then they may become the target for support in 2019. Yearly support in 2019 seems to be lining up at 22600"


This Year end report is dated December 16th 2018.
So we elected the monthly bearish in December 2018 of 23.334. The DOW did not test the next reversal (21.600) as from here we went straight up.
How can anybody say Ray Dalio missed this rally and MA predicted it?
Please let me know if anybody can explain that MA called for a rally.