Topic: May 3rd to May 14th diff thread. Picks are now closed! - page 3. (Read 6601 times)

Well we did 122 blocks then jumped up hard on mon and tues.   so 122 is a lot for variance .  if we are truly flat 134 to 154  is more then likely variance.

Some mining gear needs baby sitting and on a day like mom's day  miners in the usa could be too busy to maintain gear   .

the network is 340ph and should make 144 blocks   so if 10ph got shut off due to holiday business  that is about 4 or 5 blocks.  the rest is variance .

I figure most of europe lost home mining due to power prices.

I think 80ph is USA .
I think 10 ph is Canada


http://www.statutoryholidays.com/mothers-day.php   USA Canada a few other countries

see wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mother%27s_Day

China is in the list for Sun the 10th of 2015

Isn't mother's day a US only "holiday"?  Since the majority of hash power is overseas I don't see how Mom's day would contribute.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


5/ 3/2015    140 blocks----------- that is -   2   since about half were the last adjustment and half were this adjustment
5/ 4/2015    130 blocks----------  that is - 14
5/ 5/2015    154 blocks----------  that is +10
5/ 6/2015    157 blocks----------  that is +13
5/ 7/2015    148 blocks----------  that is +4
5/ 8/2015    143 blocks----------  that is -1
5/ 9/2015    140 blocks----------  that is -4
5/10/2015   122 blocks----------  that is -22
5/11/2015   147 blocks----------  that is +3
5/12/2015   154 blocks----------  that is +10

we are down about 5 blocks at the moment.

 we have made 1406  blocks   -5 means we should be at 1411

So we have a 'real number of (-0.35%)



I suspect some variance has been in charge this entire adjustment period

other then Mother's Day which was the lowest day.  I think that day was the miners had do do Mom's da thus some gear was turned down.

Were ending the night with slightly positive number on bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,745,939,659 (+0.22%)
Adjust time:    After 647 Blocks, About 4.4 days
Hashrate(?):    349,235,122 GH/s

Price is hanging around 241.   So still not bad overall.

I would agree 250 would be a huge win for us if we can get it stable.  If you look 220 compared to 250 we would have gained around a 12 percent increase in price. 

I hope we get to 250.  240 seems to be happening pretty stable at this point.  Which is also a win for us miners.

It would be even greater if we get

 -1.11% diff drop--------------------I win the promo  to be close with 700 blocks is good.

 251 usd a coin------------------------ We all win on our held coins

It could be luck pushing hash difficulty of low negative to low positive.

Bitwisdom now shows:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,422,978,687 (-0.46%)
Adjust time:    After 704 Blocks, About 4.9 days
Hashrate(?):    339,798,574 GH/s

I would be extremely happy with a negative this week.  If we got a negative and price over 240 I would consider it pretty great week.

Price almost 243.  I'm starting to think we will be able to stay around 240 for a bit.  Which is a jump from the 220 we were stuck at for a while. 

That is a decent jump in a month or so. If we an continue this trend it will be very very  nice.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+0.03%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,657,860,053 (+0.03%)
Adjust time:   After 753 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?):   336,413,480 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.7 minutes
6 blocks: 59.4 minutes
Updated:   8:10 (3.8 minutes ago)


price = 241 usd  from:


https://www.coinbase.com/charts

Bit wisdom has changed in since morning:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,936,563,004 (+0.62%)
Adjust time:    After 796 Blocks, About 5.4 days

We will see still a low positive even then.  I hope to see a small neg still.  Price is hanging on by a thread at 240.  Seems we have trouble keeping price above 240 lately.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


5/ 3/2015    140 blocks----------- that is -   2   since about half were the last adjustment and half were this adjustment
5/ 4/2015    130 blocks----------  that is - 14
5/ 5/2015    154 blocks----------  that is +10
5/ 6/2015    157 blocks----------  that is +13
5/ 7/2015    148 blocks----------  that is +4
5/ 8/2015    143 blocks----------  that is -1
5/ 9/2015    140 blocks----------  that is -4
5/10/2015   122 blocks----------  that is -22
5/11/2015   147 blocks----------  that is +3

we are down about 15 blocks at the moment.

 we have made 1213 blocks   -15 means we should be at 1228

So we has a 'real number of (-1.22%)

I wonder if we pop a second 122 block day on monday .    Answer was no we did a 147 block day.


Maybe lots of guys were too busy to mine and were doing moms day instead.

I suspect some variance and I suspect some miners were busy for mom's day.


the current -1.22%  puts me in the lead with about 6 days left.

this will be fixed thanks. and now fixed.

No we are very stable super growth is over.

Basically 2 reasons  asics no longer cut efficiency much. 

The 2 watt level s-1 Became the .8 watt level s-3 Became the .52 watt level s-5.

  An s-3 in a 8 cent power spot still earns money.

Hash growth is worthless power cutting is not worthless >   This appears to be the new mantra.

I believe the gear exists but that the major players do not want a hash rate war.   If you think a hash rate war hurts a guy like me so what 3-5k in gear. In my case I now own 3 s-3's that's it.

 spot rent from nicehash to mine.  So if the big players jack hash up and up and up.  I do not lose much.  I can rent gear or buy coins.

They get cut.    They are not stupid they do not want that to happen.  Just a guess  as to why ,but it is a spec thread

Bitwisdom is starting to jump a little less:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,259,632,360 (-0.81%)
Adjust time:    After 861 Blocks, About 6.0 days

Looking like good chance of difficulty  as a small negative. Price seems to hoover around 240 which is not bad.  Right now were at 242 per BTC.

My recollection is that when we got down to 1000 blocks remaining, the contest would close to further picks for this round. Do I have that right Phillip? If so, you might want to adjust the title to reflect that further picks are closed.

I can't recall a time when difficulty has just been "bumping along" at a more or less constant value, but I didn't join the mining party until the summer of 2013. Any others recall such a "calm" period?

Well whether I am your obi wan kenobi or your  Yoda  I simply don't know, but I do know right now you are close to the leaders.

I have been finding out one thing with this thread  long term stable Diff   knocks out a lot of speculation.

I have to thank suchmoon for adding the promo part as it keeps things interesting.

These threads would have ended without the promo.

week after week of flatness would have been boring to guess on:
below the last 16 adjustments = +2.1%


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s






This would mean this rate in 16 more jumps   66664 M  now I am not so sure we stay at this rate but if we do an s-3 with 9 cent power would still be a money earner.

I have to think builders of asics understand expanding hash via farms or stand alone home miners is not the way to do it. The risks are very high.

Miner's make heat  the world needs heat in many places so

using a miner for winter heating.  using a miner as a swimming pool heater.  = future ideas.

Bick says as an addon device  yeah it could work.  I agree.

 My piece of advice is plan for this  old school way of mining to change.  A farm with 5 or 10 ph in a cold place wasting the heat is not going to work.
Saving the heat for  useful purposes is a new BTC goal.  Well at least I think so.

Bitwisdom please keep going down!

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,746,955,892 (-1.88%)
Adjust time:    After 945 Blocks, About 6.7 days

I alway's seem to pick horrible picks.  This week I actually was not horrible at speculating!  Maybe thanks to philipma1957 and his thread I'm starting to learn. 

Picks are now CLOSED!

-5.26% to -5.50%   ---------------------- ezeminer

-4.01% to -4.25%  ----------------------- Bittings
-3.76% to -4.00%  ----------------------- RoadStress
-3.51% to -3.75%    --------------------- ACCTseller
-3.26% to -3.50%   --------------------- zubelutte
-3.01% to -3.25%   ----------------------jonnybravo0311
-2.76% to -3.00%   ---------------------- Biodom
-2.51% to -2.75%  ---------------------  Kexkey
-2.26% to -2.50%   ---------------------- shapeshift
-2.01% to -2.25%   --------------------- notlist3d
-1.76% to -2.00%   ---------------------- Mikestang
-1.51% to -1.76%   ---------------------- wpt1wpt1
-1.26% to -1.50%   ----------------------valkir
-1.01% to -1.25% ------------------ Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%   --------------------- Lboss
-0.51% to -0.75%   ---------------------- Jamphone
-0.26% to -0.50%   ---------------------- SunnyIgor
-0.01% to -0.25%   ---------------------- Zorrocoin
  0.00% ---------------------------------- EMIF
+0.01% to +0.25% -------------------- zebedee
+0.26% to +0.50% -------------------- eretron
+0.51% to +0.75% -------------------- Last of the  V8s
+0.76% to +1.00% -------------------- davejh
+1.01% to +1.25% -------------------- kenscho
+1.26% to +1.50% -------------------- tlhIlwI
+1.51% to +1.75% -------------------- gallery2000
+1.76% to +2.00% -------------------- tss
+2.01% to +2.25% -------------------- mavericklm
+2.26% to +2.50% -------------------- cakir
+2.51% to +2.76% -------------------- alh
+3.01% to +3.25% -------------------- tertius993
+3.26% to +3.50% -------------------- RealMalatesta


This should be full set of picks.

And mom's day was very slow for blocks:

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


5/ 3/2015    140 blocks----------- that is -   2   since about half were the last adjustment and half were this adjustment
5/ 4/2015    130 blocks----------  that is - 14
5/ 5/2015    154 blocks----------  that is +10
5/ 6/2015    157 blocks----------  that is +13
5/ 7/2015    148 blocks----------  that is +4
5/ 8/2015    143 blocks----------  that is -1
5/ 9/2015    140 blocks----------  that is -4
5/10/2015   122 blocks----------  that is -22


we are down about 18 blocks at the moment.

 we have made 1041 blocks   -18 means we should be at 1059

So we has a 'real number of (-1.69%)

I wonder if we pop a second 120 block day on monday .  Maybe lots of guys were too busy to mine and were doing moms day instead.

Bitwisodom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,900,803,905 (-1.56%)
Adjust time:    After 1016 Blocks, About 7.1 days

Looks like my -2.01 was to wishful of thinking I dont think we will hit that low at this point now.

Price dropping slightly to 239.  Hopefully it will switch directions, but guess we will see.

yes you can

look below:

Picks are now open!

-5.26% to -5.50%   ---------------------- ezeminer

-4.01% to -4.25%  ----------------------- Bittings
-3.76% to -4.00%  ----------------------- RoadStress
-3.51% to -3.75%    --------------------- ACCTseller
-3.26% to -3.50%   --------------------- zubelutte
-3.01% to -3.25%   ----------------------jonnybravo0311
-2.76% to -3.00%   ---------------------- Biodom
-2.51% to -2.75%  ---------------------  Kexkey
-2.26% to -2.50%   ---------------------- shapeshift
-2.01% to -2.25%   --------------------- notlist3d
-1.76% to -2.00%   ---------------------- Mikestang
-1.51% to -1.76%   ---------------------- wpt1wpt1
-1.26% to -1.50%   ----------------------valkir
-1.01% to -1.25% ------------------ Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%   --------------------- Lboss
-0.51% to -0.75%   ---------------------- Jamphone
-0.26% to -0.50%   ---------------------- SunnyIgor
-0.01% to -0.25%   ---------------------- Zorrocoin
  0.00% ---------------------------------- EMIF
+0.01% to +0.25% -------------------- zebedee
+0.26% to +0.50% -------------------- eretron
+0.51% to +0.75% -------------------- Last of the  V8s
+0.76% to +1.00% -------------------- davejh
+1.01% to +1.25% -------------------- kenscho
+1.26% to +1.50% -------------------- tlhIlwI
+1.51% to +1.75% -------------------- gallery2000
+1.76% to +2.00% -------------------- tss
+2.01% to +2.25% -------------------- mavericklm
+2.26% to +2.50% -------------------- cakir
+2.51% to +2.76% -------------------- alh
+3.01% to +3.25% -------------------- tertius993
+3.26% to +3.50% -------------------- RealMalatesta

Just before closing, I want to try a long shot 
Can I take -4.01% to -4.25% ?