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Topic: May 3rd to May 14th diff thread. Picks are now closed! - page 8. (Read 6616 times)

full member
Activity: 136
Merit: 100
+1.896666667% is the adjustment for each jump of this year!

I've been making a working assumption of about 2% for quite a while now. Of course it's difficult to test this theory over the short term because of variance issues (the variance is larger than the trend). The only thing that would change this would be a major shift in the BTC price again.
alh
legendary
Activity: 1846
Merit: 1052
The tables I saw for the SFARDS chip make it look like a step, but not a leap in efficiency. I don't mean this as a knock, just a recognition of the situation.

My bet is that they will try and get a serious premium for it's "LTC feature", and it will make it appear "overpriced" as a Bitcoin miner only.

Thank goodness this is a speculation thread and I don't have to reveal my overall ignorance of the LTC universe and it's machinations.  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
Night bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,457,530,981 (-2.49%)
Adjust time:    After 1819 Blocks, About 13.0 days
Hashrate(?):    332,013,210 GH/s

Price of btc taken a little dive to 234.  So not the way we wanted it to move.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

Pretty soon... https://bitcoinmagazine.com/20247/new-mining-chip-developed-sfards-becomes-efficient-chip-produced/

Hopefully the giant mining farms don't grab them before everyone else.



We will have to wait and see if it does well at the wall. I also suspect if it mines well btc-ltc.

  ltc will take a solid price hit. Still they made a nice chip for ltc last year.  It was not good for btc or btc + ltc

maybe it has the same issues as last year.
full member
Activity: 237
Merit: 100
Smile while thinking.
Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

Pretty soon... https://bitcoinmagazine.com/20247/new-mining-chip-developed-sfards-becomes-efficient-chip-produced/

Hopefully the giant mining farms don't grab them before everyone else.

legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Early numbers are okay:


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty        (-2.18%)



https://www.coinbase.com    240 usd

More trivia

last 12 adjustments :

6 Negative 6 Positive


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

140 blocks made  on 5/3/2015    about   59 in this adjustment.   sooooo we are a bit behind pace  -1 or so.
130 blocks made  on 5/4/2015    this puts us at 15 behind pace

we have made 185 blocks we should be at 200 blocks

this is (-7.25%)

only 185 blocks do not give a pick  until 300 blocks. I will let you know when
Also    no changing your pick.  Just too much work.

 No picks yet.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
+1.896666667% is the adjustment for each jump of this year!

yeah that big price drop we had in Jan to under 185 usd really has kept growth in check.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
+1.896666667% is the adjustment for each jump of this year!
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
This last difficulty adjust could have easily been a negative .07% if the blocks had fallen slight differently. A stable difficulty is great, a stagnant BTC price of $230 may well tend to keep it there a while longer.  Even if you are manufacturer of the ASIC gear, doubling your farm hashrate doesn't really help much, because a couple of weeks later a positive difficulty adjustment just washes away any gain you had in your hashrate. And unless you installed more efficient gear, you doubled your electric bill, however large or small that may be.

It's possible that the mining community at large has figured out that an ASIC "Arms Race" doesn't really help anyone for very long, unless the BTC price also increases.

Yeah if your farm has 1000 s-5's  standing pat works if you power is low cost.

Lets say the s-7 comes out in sept 2015.  and lets say it does .35 watts  slowly replacing those s-5's and keep your hash exactly the same works since your power drops quite a bit.

In the mature Asic market this is a sensible money move

ie 1ph burning 520,000 kwatts  vs 1 ph burning 350,000   means my profit goes up the price of 170,000 kwatts
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

I'm expecting nominal difficulty decreases, actually.

This could be true.

At least for the next 4 or 5 jumps as the summer heat is coming and down-clocking gear will be necessary for many miners.

This could really benefit us miners if we keep getting such low jumps.  I would agree summer heat will be a issue for some miners.   It's coming fast on the heat.

I guess we will see but I'm hoping for low jumps, negative would be a bonus.
alh
legendary
Activity: 1846
Merit: 1052
This last difficulty adjust could have easily been a negative .07% if the blocks had fallen slight differently. A stable difficulty is great, a stagnant BTC price of $230 may well tend to keep it there a while longer.  Even if you are manufacturer of the ASIC gear, doubling your farm hashrate doesn't really help much, because a couple of weeks later a positive difficulty adjustment just washes away any gain you had in your hashrate. And unless you installed more efficient gear, you doubled your electric bill, however large or small that may be.

It's possible that the mining community at large has figured out that an ASIC "Arms Race" doesn't really help anyone for very long, unless the BTC price also increases.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

I'm expecting nominal difficulty decreases, actually.

This could be true.

At least for the next 4 or 5 jumps as the summer heat is coming and down-clocking gear will be necessary for many miners.
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

I'm expecting nominal difficulty decreases, actually.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

I have done a lot of research on this.  My guess is 2% over the next 6 months.

A big price jump makes that go up more.

I think a new gen with 0.2 watts  would increase diff  to 7% the first 6 adjustments or  3 months  after it comes out.

I think a new gen with 0.35 watts would increase diff to  4% the first 6 adjustments or 3 months after it comes out.

I guess 2% since I do not see new gear anytime soon.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

This would be our hope.   If it is true we get a little extra mining time out of current gen.

On BTC price it slid down to 238 so the 240+ party is already over.
member
Activity: 64
Merit: 10
Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Biggest thing we actually have passed 240 on btc.  Were at 241 with a little upward trend.
I'm hoping the trend continues.  My S3s are well beyond my initial expected lifespan for them at this point.  When I first got them I figured I'd be lucky to make it until December of last year before they became unprofitable.
Luckily there are not huge difficulty jumps anymore. And so far for the last 6 months there has been a total of 20% increase, which is awesome for us.
Exactly... last year if you even thought about posting a difficulty increase of less than 10% every 12 days people wrote you off as insane.  Now it's May, 2015 and the difficulty has gone up about 7B since November (from about 40B to about 47B).  My gear remains mining Smiley.

With my summer power price kicking in.  I am down to a pair os s-3's batch 1 mining since July 23-26th 2014.

This pair of miners have done both positive   btc roi and usd roi .  I have them in a very low power cost spot.  2.4 cents a kwatt

If growth is 3% and price is 240 usd these will earn money into the year 2017


legendary
Activity: 1344
Merit: 1024
Mine at Jonny's Pool
Biggest thing we actually have passed 240 on btc.  Were at 241 with a little upward trend.
I'm hoping the trend continues.  My S3s are well beyond my initial expected lifespan for them at this point.  When I first got them I figured I'd be lucky to make it until December of last year before they became unprofitable.
Luckily there are not huge difficulty jumps anymore. And so far for the last 6 months there has been a total of 20% increase, which is awesome for us.
Exactly... last year if you even thought about posting a difficulty increase of less than 10% every 12 days people wrote you off as insane.  Now it's May, 2015 and the difficulty has gone up about 7B since November (from about 40B to about 47B).  My gear remains mining Smiley.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1118
Lie down. Have a cookie
Biggest thing we actually have passed 240 on btc.  Were at 241 with a little upward trend.
I'm hoping the trend continues.  My S3s are well beyond my initial expected lifespan for them at this point.  When I first got them I figured I'd be lucky to make it until December of last year before they became unprofitable.
Luckily there are not huge difficulty jumps anymore. And so far for the last 6 months there has been a total of 20% increase, which is awesome for us.
legendary
Activity: 1344
Merit: 1024
Mine at Jonny's Pool
Biggest thing we actually have passed 240 on btc.  Were at 241 with a little upward trend.
I'm hoping the trend continues.  My S3s are well beyond my initial expected lifespan for them at this point.  When I first got them I figured I'd be lucky to make it until December of last year before they became unprofitable.
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