Topic: Medical experts within the Trump Administration want a slow reoopening - page 2. (Read 576 times)

This is the most logical approach because a public policy maker's job is to reasonably outweigh risks and balance them with the greater good. But considering US politics is an utter shit show, I've seen people try to make the argument that every life counts and that it's not worth reopening the economy because "people may die". We have the data and it's clear that it points to a reopening, but because grandma might die, this apparently means healthy 25 year olds can't work.

No, my second point was actually real, you communist puppet. You are allowed to make outlandish claims without any proof other than that its a possibility, so I'm just mirroring that sentiment. IE this is an intentional economic/power play. Is it not equally as likely that this is an intentional economic/power play but perpetrated by another government rather than our own? I just wanted you to see how joyous it is when all of the proof in the world means nothing in the face of some random conspiracy theory, and everyone else is a jackass because they dont immediately buy into your claims. Even the people who hunt bigfoot look for hair/tracks DNA, speak with people who claim they've seen something, etc. You've provided no data, actions, evidence, but it somehow is on equal standing with a countable number of bodies, data from hospitals, economic advisors and the models they've used for decades on a daily basis for any mundane reason.

People run away from talking with you because theres absolutely no reason to, your logic that you expect everyone to buy into defies common sense yet stands on its own with no evidence. If you declare the moon is cheese, it is so. You have no burden of proof, but the burden of proof on others is impossible because if it fits into the framework of the standard for collecting information and analyzing it, its somehow unreliable because thats what they want you to think. On top of that, you aren't particularly pleasant to talk to. Sticking your fingers in your ears and going NANANANA until the other party walks away doesn't make your points any less groundless, it just means you get to continue your conversation all by yourself. Look at BADecker, they're out there as well but people continue to entertain them because though the standard of proof is still impossible to present, at least every other word out of BADecker's mouth isn't, Sweet strawman you non sequitur logical fallacy, and righteous indignation.

Here is logic:
Assumption 1: Government wants you to continue paying your taxes and their salaries.
Assumption 2: They have plenty of employees to model different economic situations on retainer so they can decide economic policy.
Assumption 3: They have plenty of internal medical employees (CDC/FDA/NHS)

There is a deadly virus which we've both acknowledged exists. The government aims to maximize tax revenue to pay their salaries, compete in the global pissing contest that is, who has the highest GDPs/wealthiest countries etc. External medical personnel (in every country) said oh damn look at this virus, its bad, it'll cause X people to die and Y people to get sick. Internal government medical agencies see that information and go, yup that is right it looks like X people will die and Y people will get sick, here is what we should do (social distancing/shutdowns/masks). Trump administration that is not medical personnel says ok, we need to weigh X people dying and Y people getting sick with the economic damage that will be caused from the suggested measures. They get their wizards to model various scenarios and say, yup if we do this for this long, we'll lose $Z. So you compare the $ in X, Y, and Z and make a policy to minimize all three of those things.

So thats the logical course of action, why should we expect them to do that? Is it because we're government stooges? No, its because thats what their job is and whats in their best interest. The Berkeley economics major employed does not care a single iota about your rights, protecting them or taking them away. They don't get to hold your head down in the mud and make you eat worms whether they fudge the numbers or not. They just want to do their job and get a paycheck. Whenever I get my oil changed, I don't hugely worry about them using vegetable oil instead of motor oil, because the people working there have no reason to try to screw me over. The reasonable assumption is that people will do their job. Even if economics modeler A was disgruntled and secretly a spy sent to destroy our financial system, economics modeler B-Z6 would go, hey thats not right? So we've got this conclusion drawn by multiple medical professionals and multiple economics professionals that we should follow a certain plan to minimize the three concerns.

Nah, all of that logic is nonsense because the gubmint wants you to submit to them. We should assume they don't act on logic based on the resources they have available, and instead are just out to get us. They'll hurt their own wallets to tell people to stay inside. Medical researchers A-Z15 that are unrelated are just going to let lies pass through. Economics advisors who do this type of work on a daily basis are suddenly stricken with the brain dumb and are no longer competent to do their jobs. Economy is complex, so all of those forecasts that we've been doing all along are no longer able to be completed, and it is to be assumed that policy created is either a toss at a dart board, or an intentional act of destruction to... destroy themselves...?

On top of all of that, on the 1 in a trillion chance the US Government is actually doing all of this out of incompetence or malice, that would also imply every other country following the same plan is also doing this out of incompetence or malice. So we're now to either believe this is a global ploy, or that there is not a single competent government out there and every unrelated economics/medical team are all coming to similar conclusions absolutely by coincidence.

Nah, lets discard all of that and go with Communist ploy to take over the world. I spent 20 minutes writing a post, and rather than replying, "You see, here are the numbers that show X, Y, and Z, based on this model and as you can see at our current paces and projections, Z was always significantly higher. Don't forget the government also has voting interests in not letting people die over the economy" I'll get, YOU IDIOT GOVERNMENT STOOGE, THEY GOT YA! Some buzz words from debate club, and a rehashing of, they are out to get you so they'll act against their own interest in order to get you. If you question me or ask for more details, you're an idiot, and if you leave the thread because its pointless to continue as my words are gospel without a single iota of proof to my claim, you're running from the truuuuuth.

And I see you have totally given up on attempting to make any kind of logical argument and have gone full logical fallacy retard. At least you are exposing yourself for what you are this time instead of just pussing out and running away like you usually do when you give up.

That dumbass government sturgeon general says drinking alcohol when pregnant is bad. WAKE UP PEOPLE!!1! They just don't want you to know that drinking alcohol when pregnant will help sterilize the baby so they come out super healthy and non reliant on expensive procedures and medicines. If we didn't take their word for it, everyone would have to become medical personnel working in a maternity ward in order to confirm for themselves the effects of alcohol on unborn children. If everyone was a doctor, then no one would be. (gradually getting quieter) Booooooom.

On a related note, whats actually happening is China/Russia/etc is feeding false information to downplay the pandemic in order to trick you into thinking its not as bad as we think. That causes people to resent the shut down orders, sparking rebellion, and forcing the government to stop the shut down, leaving everyone sick so they can invade with less resistance. Its the ole fashion double screw, you think we're being setup by our own government, but its actually another government, setting up our government to setup us! Its the perfect plan! Because its a possibility, I'll just assume that my assumption is correct rather than the official story that can't be true because its official. Anyone that disagrees with me is a strawman, non sequitur, patsy.

Nice strawman. I never said all of this was fake. The virus is real. It is potentially dangerous. The reaction to it was more destructive than the virus ever will be. Only a small group need be willing participants. You know why? The world is filled with people who follow those who they perceive to have authority with little to no critical thought, for example you and SaltySpitoon. Ever heard of The Milgram Experiment? Only a small number of those involved need to be witting accomplices, the rest dutifully follow orders. As they like to say "I was just following orders."

"Listening to the Coronavirus 'Experts' Has Led to Death and Despair"

http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2020/may/18/listening-to-the-coronavirus-experts-has-led-to-death-and-despair/

I'd have to agree with all of this, even if I'm someone who typically agrees with the fact that government is incompetent. I don't think that the government and policy makers (Republicans and Democrats) are going to just make large decisions like this willy nilly. No one is just going to decide, for partisan reasons, that they're going to try to kill the economy through making up a fake virus for a quarantine. This doesn't make sense at all because it's bullshit.

We do truly have a highly infectious virus on our hands that is killing people in the at risk categories (Older, Respiratory Issues, Heart Issues, etc) and others in some mysterious fashion.

Will medical experts and economic experts disagree on how they want to see the reopening happen? Yes, it makes sense on why they would -- medical experts are going to look at different things and economic experts are going to look at different things as well.

His resignation doesn't have much to do with it, except that you watch. He will find a better job in some vaccine company.

The fact that he has a model, all of such being imperfect, still needs more thought. It's three things about his model:
1. It was off farther than a game of craps could think of being off;
2. He claimed to have a computer program, which he hasn't shared, so it might not be there;
3. When he did share a computer program, computer experts determined that it couldn't be the initial program.

So, the point is that he is a fraud. Top policy is to tell the truth. People in government were stupid, they didn't get validation of what his model showed before they started to move on his predictions.

The big point is, many people all over haven't heard that he reduced his numbers drastically. So, whatever he is or was, his wrong numbers enhanced the stupid, fake pandemic in loads of ways, even if he recanted all of them later. That's essentially criminal activity on his part... breaking a public trust, accidental or intentional.

Niel Ferguson resigned because apparently he violated lock down orders to go make love with his mistress. A bit disgraced and bizarre circumstances but nonetheless, if we're talking about his model, it's a prediction. They aren't designed to be completely right and they are built within a margin of error. You feed a model with incoming data points which make extrapolations based on certain conditions. The conditions are always changing, so the model will always change.

A model is "hype guesswork", that doesn't take away credibility. Right now, the models support a U.S. reopening because incoming data points to a reduction in confirmed cases despite more testing as well as a reduction in the rate of deaths. Most likely a plateau of around 100k or so deaths will occur.

Oh am I? Good of you to tell me what my argument should be as you completely avoid addressing any of the points I made or substantiating any of your own arguments. Small portions and sub-sectors of the economy are forecast and modeled, not the entire macroeconomic system, and not regarding drastic unprecedented changes. You keep saying over and over again that people examined the effects of the lock down on the economy before it was implemented, yet you remain unable to substantiate this claim with any kind of documentation whatsoever. I guess your proclamation of righteousness is sufficient is it?

I am not talking about the concept of a lock down as an idea, I am talking specifically about utilizing it as a modern policy for emergency response, which I documented and you conveniently misdirected from with your whole historical analysis of the concept. All those other modern examples you gave were of minor regional areas, not a nation wide shut down barring businesses from operating. This is no comparison at all. You are trying to compare cooking a burger on your back yard grill with a global McDonald's corporate empire and pretending they are comparable.

This is not just incompetence, it is sold as incompetence. It is INTENTIONAL SABOTAGE FOR PROFIT AND CONTROL. The more emergencies created, the more people like you rush to the government screaming "Please! Please strip my rights to keep me safe!" Meanwhile massive corporate entities get to destroy their competition via shutdowns while they remain operational. Then when the waves of bankruptcies hit, they can buy up all of their real assets at fire sale prices. This also all has the added benefit of being able to blame decades of economic mismanagement on this outbreak instead of the real perpetrators responsible. No it wasn't us doing our fraud or the massive inflation we created destroying the economy, it was because that darned virus! A global economic reset was in the works for a long time. This was just the perfect pretext they needed to roll it out and start burning it all down while not resulting in street lynchings for those responsible for robbing us all blind. A disaster for one is an opportunity for another, but you feel free to keep believing there is no motivation for this planned economic implosion.

^^^ Top policy is to tell the truth. Neil Ferguson won't show us his initial computer program for his Imperial Model. He probably didn't have one, but just did a bunch of hype guesswork. Maybe it was intentional fearmonger work, and not guesswork at all. The program he got around to showing us was examined by experts who said that it wasn't the original. So, we still don't know if there was an original.

You're approaching this from the wrong angle, people don't just decide policy based on nothing, its not logical. The economy is as you said a finely tuned and complicated machine, but it is analyzed and forecast on a daily basis. Its not some mysterious entity that the people who've been analyzing it for 30 years are unable to draw conclusions on. The Trump administration employs these wizards that have a full time job of saying, hey we should impose tariffs to incentive this sector because we predict that this earthquake in Uzbekistan will have this effect on the sector. But you're right, its far more reasonable and likely to assume they're just throwing darts at a dartboard to decide economic policy.

Not that it matters, but the lockdown idea was first applied in the 1300s where the term "quattuor" (later quarantine) comes from, to curb the spread of the bubonic plague. Its been applied for hundreds of years because it does work. Canada did lockdown measures in 2003 to stop the spread of SARS. South Korea did the same thing in 2015 with MERS. The US did social distancing and closure of businesses where patrons couldn't distance themselves in 1918. Epidemics aren't all that rare, its just that the ones that we've had in the US in the past 100 years were more or less treatable with vaccines which isn't the case this time around.

Even if I was to entertain the idea of US Government incompetence and decided that you knew better how to manage the economy than the consensus of all of the people they employ, what about Canada? What about every other country in the world doing the same measures (albeit substantially more successfully than us). They all have different governments with different interests, yet their medical and economic advisors are more or less telling them the same things.

Do you actually have any evidence that so much effort was put into planning this response, or is this just a lazy appeal to authority logical fallacy again on your part? No one has the data or ability to model the macroeconomic effects of the shutdown, that is my point. I don't care how many experts you throw at it, the economy is a very finely tuned complicated machine flying down the highway at 120mph, and the shutdown just slammed it into reverse gear at full speed. Even if we can regain control of the vehicle the transmission is going to be destroyed.

Very good of you to tell me what my point is. What else is that called? Oh, right a straw man. My point is no one has the ability to model all of this effectively, and you have no evidence to support your claim that it has been examined in this way, in such detail, or even by economics experts. My point is even if they did, they still would not be able to do a good enough job to approach a reliable model. So far all I have seen are horribly inaccurate computer model based systems, not "millions of people who understand economics". This wasn't an economic policy, it was an emergency policy with economics as an afterthought at best. You like to imagine that government couldn't be so incompetent, but you have zero evidence to support your assertions.

What if I told you the lock down plan is based on a high school science project from 2006? What would you say then? What if I told you that experts in economics and medicine rejected the idea, but it was implemented anyway? What if I asked you to substantiate your claims with documentation? What other logical fallacies would you pull out to avoid admitting that you have zero logical arguments to respond with? There are people who have interests in seeing this nation fail for control and profit. Your inability to admit this and pretend like no one wants to see this happen is beyond ignorant. What will eventually be sold as incompetence is actually intentional sabotage, and it is enabled by millions of people just like you running to the warm embrace of the government when they tell you "we are here to help!". When you see the devastation that develops over the following years as a result of this policy, you just make sure you remember how vociferously you fought for your own nation's destruction.


"The 2006 Origins of the Lockdown Idea"

https://www.aier.org/article/the-2006-origins-of-the-lockdown-idea/




"Neil Ferguson's Imperial model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/neil-fergusons-imperial-model-could-devastating-software-mistake/

What kind of grass is that^^?

They are all reputable sources if they are second hand. It's the first hand sources that are not so reputable that we know of. Or have they all disregarded orders from Dr. Brix and the CDC? Did you get around to question them all on this?

The point is that we need to come to an agreement on a baseline source of information, otherwise none of anything either of us says matters. For all we know, it might be as low as a few hundred or less, or maybe over a billion. Perhaps Covid doesn't actually exist, or maybe it turns you into a zombie. Like I said, I just picked the CDC because its your government's official channel of information.

Pick any reputable source you'd like. If you are super concerned about the probable deaths being temporarily listed in the data, look only at the data thats a week old so that corrections are made. Or look at where the data is coming from where its still broken down into probable and confirmed cases and draw your conclusions from that. My state has it broken down this way

That's all a fantasy of fears inside a shell of hysterical ignorance wrapped in a cocoon of self righteousness inside your head.

A bit of stupidity on their part and slow movement is all I have to complain about.

You seem to be another one of those who buzzes all around the point, without actually setting down on it.

The point is the CDC lies and deception. When you tell people to say something other than the truth, you are lying, or at least deceiving. Same with the CDC. This is exactly what they did. And further, they said they would protect any lying medical people from prosecution if they lied about Covid deaths.


If a person's death cause is something other than Covid, call it whatever it is, not Covid, like the CDC is telling people to do.

If a person's death cause is unknown, call it unknown, not Covid, like the CDC is telling people to do.

If a person's death cause is unknown but Covid is present, call it unknown until what it was is determined to have been becomes known, not Covid, like the CDC is telling people to do.

In other words, the CDC has spawned all kinds of exaggerated lies about Covid and its death count. Because of this, nobody knows the true Covid death count. For all we know, it might be as low as a few hundred or less.

Sounds like a reasonable approach.

I love ya buddy, but you don't know anything about "science". We can observe the tiny little bad guys in the body with a variety of methods. You don't get labeled as having covid because you go to the doctor with a cough anymore than you get labeled as having tuberculosis. At the most extreme you'd get labeled as a possible covid patient while you're waiting for the test results. The published statistics have a breakdown of confirmed and probable cases, and a note that the numbers are amended as the test results come back positive for negative. I cannot explain the concept of testing to an extent that you'll understand or accept so I'm just going to have to move past that.

I'll certainly offer understanding for someone who wants to say, well I don't necessarily trust the CDC and point to contradictory information coming from another well respected medical facility. The point though is that there isn't contradictory information coming out, so I felt it was most appropriate to cite the CDC considering the thread is about Medical Experts within the Trump Administration. You can find the same information coming out of Johns Hopkins, NIH, Canada/European/Zimbabwe's public health agencies, so I'm more than willing to stop using the CDC as an example and switch over to data collected by any other reputable medical facility.

The Trump administration has both the manpower and expertise to collect the necessary information to make public statements. Relying on conclusions from people who don't have either is asinine. If you're able to find a reasonable motive that the government would take trillions in damage to lie, you can then look for dissenting opinions from respected medical facilities. In this case, the published information is corroborated by both the private and public sector in every country that has put public statements out. If you think that the US government is out to get you, get your information from Norway, they don't care about you in the slightest. If you want to chase this down some delusional one in a billion global scheme by a coalition of secret trillionaires that have the influence to manipulate 50 million people or so, let me know and we can have fun with it. I'll be the opposing side offering equally likely scenarios involving complete economic collapse, global anarchy, zombies, etc.

If you think the people making predictive models that are influencing the Trump administration's decisions aren't accounting for the amount of wear in people's socks as an indicator of economic distress, do it yourself.

When the CDC directs doctors and medical people to call it Covid if they don't know what it might be, or when it is Covid-like but could be any number of things, or when the doctor has determined that it is something other than Covid, or when it is somebody who died without a determined cause, that is a criminal, shyster, evil, wicked, lying approach.

If the CDC doesn't find the person who wrote those directives, and find something to try him for in a court of law, so that he gets 20 years to life, the whole organization is entirely evil. Those doctors and other CDC workers who are honest, should absolutely get out of their while they have any credibility left at all.

Move away from the CDC if you value your life, and don't have anything to do with any medical people who value the CDC.

I have not, but I have dealt extensively with Johns Hopkins and if you'd like to skip the CDC, I'd recommend them since they are one of the most competent medical institutions in the world. Though the CDC is just verifying Hopkins findings and regurgitating them to the public. I don't really have much opinion on the CDC at all, but the info that they're putting out isn't much different than that of any other country.