Topic: Medical experts within the Trump Administration want a slow reoopening - page 4. (Read 576 times)

If there is any indecision about a fast opening, all they have to do is imprison and execute their so-called medical experts. Then there won't be anyone opposing their opening.

Trump is obsessed to ope the US economy in order to protect it from huge disaster.
There are already a lot of countries that stopped the measures and they see an increase in infections again. The disaster will come the one way or the other even it is an economic one or a hygiene one.

kids dont really like school and can learn from home.. so what i believe really is the big question about schools that most are concerned about.. who will babysit the kids so parents can go back to work

i believe the best option is for normal 'workbook' stuff kids can do remote learning. and only go into school to do 'practical' lessons thus only need a third of peoples in school at any time. which should allow social distancing layouts of classrooms.
but to still be reactive to any flare ups to avoid it becoming a full on hotzone
this ofcourse would cause alot of issues with childcare.
so secondary/highschool kids could to more remote learning as they are old enough to look after themselves (parents just put a banknote on the kitchen table to buy a pizza for dinner).
and make schools more manageable for the younger students in primary/elementary years to support the younger years to stay in hospital as much as possible.

i still think whether kids go to school full time or part time there will be a point of needing to manage the flare ups and using different facilities to 'babysit' kids. other wise the parents will find it harder to get back to work..

california only had 50 out of 3300.. (1.5%) forget the media whores that pretend 50%.. no 1.5%
yes when some midstates didnt get their counts of covid until feb-march. california has some in january.
and newyork had some in january..
france had a case on december 27th. from presumably imported from the chinese seafood market.

but id say you are pushing it if your saying november.. as the r0's dont match a november spread.. but do match the track and trace of the china imports to california in january . and the initially from france imports into newyork in january

but even so.. its about only a 1.5%-2.5% spread not 50%. so we are all around the world still at the start of the storm. not the end

Just a quick note - I believe this was in response to Fauci's assertion that the kids shouldn't go back to school until after we have a vaccine, eg stay out the whole year that STARTS august/September.

personally i dont think a blanket plan for every region fits. i think a lockdown an area if that area is a hotspot.
EG badeckers dumbzone of arizona could have stayed open a couple weeks before lockdown,

but then it becomes more pressure of getting that message out in press(national) that only applies to regional levels. it starts to send mized messages. such as badecker in dumb arizona thinking that arizona should be like far far away lands like sweden. and he and his cult friends want to protest and hug and lick doorknobs in anger to defy the advice given by his senator.

so although it would be good to do things more regionally.. the abundance of human stupidity and jealousy of other people in other places makes people not be sensible

take a look at sweden. they have relaxed rules.. so what did denmark population do.. cross the border so they can rub shoulders with people in sweden and now sweden is getting angry that more cases are imported from denmark.

in the UK the south west has the lowest case numbers.. but has the highest amount of 'fines' handed out for people travelling long distances into the south west. all because people think they can drive to a non hotzone if their area is a hot zone.. thinking they are escaping it. but in actual fact bringing it with them.
thus it just creates more hotzones.

....
as for the school kid question. yep its not about kids getting sick. its about one family having it. that kid gets it(no symptoms) and spreads it to 30 other kids(no symptoms) and next thing you get is 30 families getting it and the parents and grandparents being rushed to hospital in the following week or 2
also having 30 asymptomatic kids touching things older teachers touch. means teachers then get sick and need time off. causing the school to be locked dow because the school becomes a hotzone and needs to be sanitised

its much better to get the number down to numbers that are manageable.. then start schools again after summer break.. yep america's summer break is about to start anyway so no point sending kids to school just to send them back home in a couple weeks.
best to just leave it to august/september now

I do not think one can rationally discuss things like those bolded above until you have facts that explain differences in virus spread / rates between say, CA and NY.

There's some discussion about this virus actually having been around in Nov-Jan at least on the West Coast, and possibly a higher level of IGM/IGG responses there.

This is the only policy that will work.

It does not matter to this virus where people live.  It will infect all that it can.

Population density plays a role, however, human physical interactions are critical.

If you go back to the way of life before the lockdowns, the virus will spread very quickly, everywhere, including in Montana.

Having different policies for different areas based on their current points on the infection curve is short-sighted at best, IMHO.

Wearing PPE, social distancing is the only thing that will limit the spread.

Schools should be closed, and all gatherings should be banned until we get a reliable vaccine and vaccinate everyone.

We are in the early stages of this.  The way we are handling is criminal, IMHO.

The way things are now, we might not see the second wave until the next spring.

Do you think a one size fits all policy will work?

If Fauci says something that might be okay in NY, what about Montana?

Rand Paul is a complete idiot.  Mortality in children is irrelevant.  Community spread is relevant here.  How many older or overweight adults, parents/grandparents will these kids infect?

As for Fauci, he is an MD.  He graduated first in his class from Cornell. When you trained as an engineer, but you work as a CEO, you don't stop being an engineer.  He is an MD, always will be, it does not matter that he does not prescribe blood thinners to old people in your nearest walk-in clinic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci

When he talks, he actually makes sense. Unlike all the other talking heads, democrats and republicans alike.

His honesty is infectious.

Fauci has been wrong a number of times and has relied on low quality models.

Here's Rand Paul debating with him, on the subject of reopening schools.

“Shouldn’t we at least be discussing what the mortality of children is?” Paul asked Fauci, adding that "the mortality between [ages] 0 and 18 in New York approaches zero. … So, really, we do need to be thinking about that. We need to observe with an open mind what went on in Sweden, where the kids kept going to school.”

“I hope that people who are predicting doom and gloom and saying, ‘Oh, we can’t do this. There’s going to be the surge,’ will admit that they were wrong if there isn't a surge. Because I think that's what's going to happen,” the senator continued, adding, “I think the ‘one size fits all,’ that we’re going to have a national strategy and nobody’s going to go to school, is kind of ridiculous. We really ought to be doing it school district by school district.”

“As much as I respect you, Dr. Fauci, I don’t think you’re the end-all. I don’t think you’re the one person that gets to make a decision,” Paul concluded. “But if we keep kids out of school for another year, what’s going to happen is the poor and underprivileged kids … are not going to learn for a full year.”

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/rand-paul-clashes-with-dr-fauci-over-reasonable-call-to-reopen-schools

Here's the REAL reasons Fauci wants a slow reopening. The virus will dissipate naturally within two years. Fauci needs the timing to be just right, to make it look like the new vaccine that he is working on with Gates, will make it to market and be distributed worldwide at exactly the time that the virus disappears naturally. This will make it look like it was the vaccine that did it, and more people will spend more money on more of his and Gates's vaccines.

It's all about money.

heres some facts

when you have a population of 320mill. and a disease that is 30% asymptomatic. 50% mild 20% severe
and you know there are not 64mill hospital beds.
and you know there is not 1mill hospital beds if progressing over a year.

then you know you cant allow it just to 'herd immunity spread' and let the hospitals take up the slack. because there is no slack.

instead with just 6mill people had it =4mill symptomatic meaning >2m severe means only 80k death risk because hospitals can cope(because the >2m is spread over 2 months not in one week)

but if you imagine them 6mill were not spread over 2 months. but instead were weekly numbers. there would not be beds for everyone and the >2mill severe per week wont get oxygen or medical care. meaning more deaths. and it still taking a year to spread(6m a week= over 52weeks)

stupid people think that 320mill americans must have had it by now.
they dont even think that only a few million have. meaning ~1%-2%  not 100%

think of all the hospital stress in march-early april at the peak. that was like 1% yet hospitals were stressed.

imagine herd immunity of 2-3-4-5-6%

too many ignorant people care more about fiat than human life. which makes them hypocrits to be on a bitcoin forum but think fiat means more than anything else

Poor facts, even very poor facts, would be a far better basis for decisions than a chained set of interdependent assumptions. Heard of joint probability? If 60% chance XYZ's sole intent is to help people, if 60% the praise he has is correctly placed, if 60% the guy's time in government gives him more wisdom, if 60% chance he hasn't lost the skill and perspective of a practicing doctor....

x = .6x.6x.6x.6 = 13%

Just like Airport Security Theater, we are dealing with Covid Theater. That is what Fauci has been and is creating.

In no way is it wise, required or important.

I mean I can assume the intentions of another, but both of us are just going to be shooting in the dark here. I know that. I just think with this amount of time this guy has been in government, and the amount of praise that he has, would make it clear that his sole intention is to try to help people. Maybe if the guy had worked in the private sector for sometime to just make some $$$$, and if he'd only been here for sometime I'd think different, but that's just not the case.

I mean yeah the guy isn't a practicing doctor, but what in gods name could my physician tell me that would stop the spread of the coronavirus? Wouldn't you want someone with the background in infectious diseases to be the guy that is leading the charge here?

Oh, to be honest with you I didn't even pick up on this when watching through some of the testimony. Might be because I have no background in compute modeling.

But when I speak about someone like Fauci and their intentions....
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That's sort of where we start to disagree. You can't. You can ASSUME what someone's intentions may be, but you don't know. Assumptions are not facts.

It may sound trite, but someone's INTENTIONS might just be to talk. On international media.

Talk to any practicing doctor about the COVID matter. Someone who has been a government administrator for forty years does not speak for him.

Sure. You've made assumptions about the motives of people eg Fauci. I have a background in computer modeling. When he first started babbling about his "Models" I tuned him out as a complete idiot on the very subject he was purporting to advise as a medical professional. I'm qualified to say that. Make sense?

[/quote]

Oh, to be honest with you I didn't even pick up on this when watching through some of the testimony. Might be because I have no background in compute modeling.

But when I speak about someone like Fauci and their intentions, I'm saying that I think that as a medical professional and expert it is important to note that his advice on only that subject matter should be taken into account. I also don't think he should corrupt what he thinks about a particular topic with another variable - like the economy - as it has nothing to do with his background.

I do actually think the fact that he has been in government for so long, in the same position, as important - while others do not. This guy is not a politician, and isn't trying to be one. I don't see a reason for him to have some ulterior motives here. Guy has literally been under many different administrations, and has been doing the same thing all along.

If he was someone who was just picked under Obama, and there was a theory about him having it out for Trump because of x,y,z then I may have reason to look a bit further. But there's no reason to think this guy is just making Trump seem like a bad guy. At least IMO.

Sure. You've made assumptions about the motives of people eg Fauci. I have a background in computer modeling. When he first started babbling about his "Models" I tuned him out as a complete idiot on the very subject he was purporting to advise as a medical professional. I'm qualified to say that. Make sense?

His "information" isn't "from a medical point of view."

Not exactly sure what I've done wrong here, is there something in particular that you didn't like about my post or is there something that I've said that isn't factual here? Kinda want to make sure I know what you disagree with here before attempting to respond.

No to the above.

The reason is that because you have several assumptions there.

Fauci's been an administrator for 40 YEAR!!! Not a "medical doctor."