Topic: Micheal Salyor decalogue for a 10x Bitcoin Appreciation - page 3. (Read 1032 times)

The fiat currency system is already debasing, so I doubt that we need to presume extraordinary debasement for bitcoin prices to go up 10x in a cycle.. maybe not in a year but in a cycle.. which surely is closer to the 2 years from now range rather than the 1 year from now range.  Of course, we are going to have to try to keep both ideas in our head at the same time regarding how much is bitcoin going up in real terms versus the debasement of the underlying measurement. 

I personally attempt to predict in terms of today's dollars, but that's kind of unrealistic too because if we go to measure in 1 year or 2 year's time, we are going to be using nominal terms that would reflect the relative values at the particular time of measuring, and many times we do not go back and really try to battle out the real term values.. even though we likely can presume that bitcoin's appreciation has outpaced the debasement of the dollar.. especially if we zoom out 5-10 years. and maybe no need to go beyond that even though bitcoin is coming on 15 years of age, but really even arguments of its value 12 or 13 (in 2010 and 2011) years ago might not really be very fair measurements.. but when we get into 2012.. and maybe even more so 2013, there were more and more ways to establish fair market value.. and surely we have financial instruments (and ways to liquidate) still growing and being developed and implemented in the space... even though we have manipulation too. .and some of the gambling practices of entities (3rd parties) not having the coins that they claim to have, and so if they get caught, then that may well be a good thing.. but still is it likely not a problem that is going to go away anytime soon.

Was it already complete or it remained lacking? The previous times he mentioned his decalogue, he provided an octalogue and sometimes a nonalogue. LOL!

Anyway, while I agree with many points in his decalogue, I feel like he's exaggerating in his price prediction of Bitcoin. 12 months from now and Bitcoin already hitting $370,000? Come on, that's not realistic. But, of course, such bullish kind of prediction serves him pretty well.

As to fiat's debasement, whether there's Bitcoin or not, fiat is all about it.

Salor resonated the decalogue in a recent speech at the Australia Crypto Convention:

Bitcoin Boom: Michael Saylor Forecasts 10X Surge in Demand Within a Year, Predicts Multi-Million Dollar Future


The conclusion is always the same:


OF course, getting to these values, would imply the debasement of the corresponding FIAT base currency, in my humble opinion. 

I doubt that Saylor gives any shits about whether or not "crypto" pumps, and he mostly does not talk about crypto, but instead he seems to already know that the tail does not wag the dog, so why consider or frame what's happening or might happen in those kinds of dumb, vague and loosey-goosey terms.

By the way, Saylor seems to recognize and appreciate that crypto is largely an affinity scam against bitcoin, and he has largely made those kinds of statements, including pointing them out to be inferior product, pointing out that bitcoin is far and above anything else in the space in terms of a pristine asset and even acknowledging that a lot of people get distracted into the various snake oil and/or vapor ware of the non-bitcoin products.


You are pointing out such outlier kinds of scenarios fillippone.. and sure your overall point is still valid.

I will still quibble a bit and assert that Saylor has not sold any bitcoin so far, and the one time that anyone can point out to his selling (at the end of 2022, right?) has to do with a situation in which he bought more than he sold, so hardly even a sale in the whole scheme of things.

You might be correct that overall, there might be times in which he sells some bitcoin, inspite of his saying that he is never selling... and there could be times in which he is forced to sell because some 3rd party rug pulls him or some kind of a governmental persecution (forcing of the matter)... but still? 

Your overall point is that whether he sells or not should not matter too much about how anyone chooses to invest in bitcoin or not, even though there could be times in which Saylor ends up becoming bitter and rage-quitting or engaging in some kind of purposeful manipulation of the BTC price because he can, and he does not seem like that kind of a guy, but surely anyone is capable of getting caught too much into their own egos and engaging in seemingly erratic and/or self-serving/self-destructive behaviors based on known or perhaps yet unknown factors.

Who knows? Bitcoin doesn’t need heroes, and you shouldn’t invest in Bitcoin because MS is a hero to you. Don’t trust, verify applies also to other people's intentions.
Sooner or later he will sell more bitcoin, this is inevitable, but I hardly understand hw this should affect your assessment of your investment.

The only proof of his prediction and his belief in his thoughts, will be the move to get a comfortable $1 trillion dollar loan And soon, he will exaggerate this amount to 10 trillion, easily close the loan obligations, repay the loan body, and become a legal trillionaire ! Or to give forecasts is one thing, but to act according to them is not interesting ?
I would rather believe that it was preparation and warming up the masses for the next crypto pump, where skillful manipulators will successfully nab fiat, than the reality that has a real justification.

I think he understood Bitcoin better than many of us out there, and this "decalogue" has been one of the most underestimated statements/cogitations ever.
People are too focused on his DCA, but there's more behind it.
Ultimately, his target is turning Microstrategy into the Berkshire Hathaway of the Bitcoin World. Difficult with an ETF around, but possible.

I cannot recall seeing any Saylor predictions that are overly optimistic, and I doubt that he is really predicting anything that is much different from what other bitcoiners had been saying prior to Saylor's mid-2020 coming onto the bitcoin scene.

In other words, he seems to be a famous person who is very articulate who is saying a lot of the same things that other bitcoiners had already been saying, and I am not even denying that he is likely much more articulate than a large number of previous bitcoiners  who also do not seem to as easily get a large platform as Saylor.

If you recall, Saylor was a pretty damned newbie bitcoiner in August 2020, and he was already getting on all kinds of podcasts and even nation-wide (and international) news outlets from the start - and Saylor even took on a spokesperson's role in regards to bitcoin so he could show us that he was learning along the way, but from the start, Saylor was a pretty quick study in terms of being able to articulate information that was already out there and even coming up with his own analogies and bringing his own smartness into the mix.. and sure maybe he ended up bringing some new ways of looking at bitcoin.. but it is still like he has any more power or ability to see the future than anyone else, except sure there is likely a bit of a magnifying effect to have a number of people working with him (and for him) from the start, and including his choices to put on conferences and to tailor various bitcoin educational materials.

A lot of the early discussions of MSTR's/Saylor's involvement in bitcoin can be seen in fillippone's other thread on the topic.


Well, he was already shown to be a bit wrong in terms of some of the varying ways that he was stocking up on bitcoin, which kind of shows that even rich (and smart people) are not immune from having to go through bitcoin cycles and perhaps even suffer from the manipulation of other (even bigger players) and/or to fail to see certain kinds of overleveraging coming into the bitcoin space and/or tied to the bitcoin space.. so in some sense likely getting caught off guard from the severity of some of the so far 2022 bitcoin price corrections that might even be continuing to hold bitcoin prices down further and for longer than they really should be held down.  

Maybe I am playing off of some of the criticisms that Saylor receives for not really predicting anything that is outside of what many of us already know about bitcoin cycles, which is that they are pretty powerful, and not exactly guaranteed, but fools are likely going to continue to miss out on bitcoin because they either fail/refuse to buy any BTC or to buy enough or they end  up selling too many BTC too soon.

Many of us should appreciate that there is a lot of power with the likelihood of being directionally correct with bitcoin historically and likely the ongoing likelihood of continuing to be directionally correct without really exactly being able to guarantee any kind of exact timeline.. and merely if bitcoin is continuing to appreciate at least higher than the dollar is losing its value then it is doing its job, and there is additional icing on the cake if bitcoin ends up also beating other real property assets.. because of bitcoin's being a kind of real property that is way more moveable, and surely that is something that Saylor continues to repeat, and there really is no way that he can be wrong about his description of what bitcoin is, but at the same time, doesn't necessarily mean that he is going to get any kind of the timing correct.. or that he can take credit if he ends up being correct..

.....even though many of us who have bitcoin and who have continued to have bitcoin are likely getting some level of glee when we see bitcoin prices going up and then we have a kind of "I told you so" feeling going through us, whether or not we choose to gloat about it.. and bitcoin seems to never endingly allow for that kind of gloating every few years (maybe we can call them cycles), but perhaps the other portions of the cycle we look stupid unless we have been in a few cycles then we surely have enough of a price cushion that we can even gloat about how great bitcoin is, even when it is at the deeper ends of its correction periods..

People like Michael Saylor are very useful to the cryptocurrency world.  Yes, perhaps some of his predictions look overly optimistic now, but he may turn out to be right in the distance. Let's wait until 2025 - and then we'll see how right or wrong he turned out to be

I choose rapidity.
My source didn’t provide me the link from BBG as the story was behind paywall only.
I wanted to timely inform my readers.
I will later edit the post with complete references.

Link(s) or it didn't happen.



Edit: Whoops.  I sent you an smerit in the other thread that you provided a link, but then I noticed that you linked back to this above link-less post of yours.

Very important development according to Bloomberg.

Long-Awaited Bitcoin Accounting Rules to Capture Rises, Dips (2)



Bloomberg's Nicola White, who wrote in the past about this subject,  comments:

Bullish Microstrategy, more Bullish Bitcoin.



EDIT: Added link to the news, so that JJG is happy with that.

ATH are not sustainable price zones that are suppose to sustain

the ATH of 2013, 9 years ago.. was infact suppose to "crash"
although the better wording is correct back down away from its premium and come back down to value

shouting
"bitcoins days are numbered, It seems like just a matter of time before it suffers the same fate as online gambling." is not the best way to say that the bitcoin price is definitely goring to correct back down


everyone knows the sea level is rising, slowly. but that does not mean when you see a tsunami to think the peak of a tsunami wave is suppose to be the new sea level.

so warning that the tsunami will crash and the waves will return back to a more valued sea level thats slightly higher than the sea level before the tsunami. is actually accurate advice

its just how you word it that matters

Funny and shocking how Micheal Saylor nine years ago was a big Bitcoin critic. Sayings that Bitcoin will crash just as most gamblers do

So much Financial Awareness and Education he must have achieved putting so much latter on in the whole Bitcoin stuff.
Now he stands as a big influencer of Bitcoin fighting for daily freedom

for me the only regulation i want to see is regulation that supports consumer protection.

using the current rules and remit of SEC/CFTC and FATF just do not work in crypto.(bad regs)

in short KYB(B for business) is needed more than KYC

a new regulator is needed(crypto trained and crypto understanding). and its remit should be consumer protection. categorising what a business does, how a business treats its custodianised coins to then categorise whether SEC or CFTC need to get involved should the business play dirty

by then being regulated, the new hybrid regulator can help the native banking industry to offer insurance products to further protect consumers of a business

all done without the crappy "KYC everything" model of native regulators, that dont care about insurances to protect customers or auditing a business every quarter/monthly

i do find it funny how every citizen has to be audited for tax.
citizens banks give them a monthly statement
but am exchange business does not need to report on its corporate accounts as much as citizens do..
when it comes to custodianising customers funds exchanges can jsut refuse to show accounts. like coinbase refuses to show "legal entities" public addresses of coins it has in custody

Regulators are actually damaging agents in this space. I think bad regulation is actually worse than no regulation. Or do you believe the bad regulation allowing GBTC instead of a spot ETF is better than no regulation?

my pains

regulations:
regulators protect business, police customers
regulators dont police businesses, protect customers

they cant evolve/have a hybrid regulator that understand the differences between mainnet PoW assets vs speculated PoS/pegged tokens.

they refuse to recognise crypto business/ico models, so decline licences. but then whinge that a business/ico is not licenced

leverage risk:
allowing loan sharking (20x leveraging)
allowing customer to have 2000% risk without credit checks or max %risk

excessive corporation valuations:
exchanges that do $1.1b for 2year cashflow valuation.
(normal 2x of cashflow is fair value)
yet markets rating them at $8billion (16x of cashflow)
yet these exchanges do not have their own corporate assets of 16x cashflow
coinbase: $750m volume
=$1.5m fee(cashflow/income) /day (0.2% fee)
=$547m/year
=$1.1b 2 year

In my opinion, the value of Bitcoin lies in the fact that it is an alternative to the modern financial system. 

Does Bitcoin need regulation? 

Yes, - if it will contribute to its survival and development. 

No, - if we consider the situation from the point of view of an attempt to introduce the first cryptocurrency into the traditional financial system. 

Bitcoin is the antagonist of the modern financial system.  For Bitcoin, the best thing is to stay in the "grey" zone. 

If there are no other alternatives, then you can pretend to be a traditional financial instrument.  But that's just pretend...

More on the same.
Apparently the mark-to-market approach is getting more and more probable for bitcoin holdings:

Crypto Accounting Plan Would Have Net Income Reflect Value Swings


At least here we have a regulator who's taking action to regulate, instead of whining about the lack in regulations.

Something new on this front:


Micheal Saylor just tweeted this:



This is the relevant part:



This kind of valuation is more keen to the mark-to-market criteria, which is important for a reliable representation in the balance sheet, in the best interest of the stakeholders.

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Just a little trick if you bump into the paywall: https://12ft.io/