MSTR's coins (and Saylor's personal stash as well) are not exactly "locked up", but I otherwise agree with the overall sentiment of your post Dabs and your various other points including that MSTR nor Saylor are likely to be either selling or attempting to be manipulating the BTC price, even if they are capable of doing whatever the fuck they want - in terms of free market aspects of bitcoin (but of course, there would likely be concerns from some regulatory bodies (such as SEC - and even share holder concerns) if Saylor were to try any kind of significant or meaningful levels of selling stocks to buy lower kinds of things).
His personal stash, maybe he can do whatever he wants with those, but I am guessing he has those under multi-sig and it will just be a hassle for him to actually do it.
The company stash, it's also very likely to be multi-sig with the board members, and the whole company has to agree. Maybe he has more signatures, but I'm almost sure he needs at least one more other person if it's set up correctly. There may possibly be a last resort backup plan like buried in some high security vault.
I doubt that anyone with controlling shares of a relatively medium sized company is going to set up funds in such a way that removes his ability to be able to decide the direction of the funds, just like he has such same authority to decide the direction of the company's assets and time spent on projects. Sure, there are both aspects of fund management and company directional decisions that are allowed to happen without his input in the hands of various designated leaders, but at the same time, those actions of spending company funds or resources would NOT be out of Saylor's reach to control, if he wanted.
In other words, MSTR is not any usual company in regards to how much control Saylor has, and he neither has given it up nor would it be logical to assume that he is planning to give up such control anytime in the near future.
Maybe? We are just speculating.
You were presuming that MSTR funds are locked up, and I don't think so. Sure there may well be procedures to follow to sell or spend them, but I doubt that they are locked up in anywhere close to the "5-year" proclamation that you had made... So I would say that you are the one speculating about something that does not seem to be backed up by facts that go beyond such speculation and the actual facts/logic don't really support anywhere close to such "locked up for 5 years" speculation that you made.
By the way, I will agree that:
1) MSTR/Saylor has created a number of debt instruments that need to be serviced over the next 4-7 years
2) Saylor seems to understand the bitcoin 4 year cycles, and he likely had invested ways that account for the 4 year cycles
3) Even though Saylor is a majority shareholder, minority shareholders have rights of disclosure (to stay apprised of material and significant operational/financial decisions
4) Saylor made pretty strong statements that he does not plan to sell for 100 years.. blah blah blah
None of the above locks Saylor into having to hold for 5 years.. In other words, he can do whatever he wants in spite of the points - so long as he does not violate any minority shareholder rights by failing/refusing to disclose material and significant information along the way regarding what he is doing. Sure, his own statements do lock himself up somewhat to reveal if he has changed his position, but those statements would not be any kind of absolute lock on his ability to sell substantial amounts of company bitcoin before 5 years.
Imagine that one dude who has hardware wallets all over the planet and he's just a family man.
Most of these guys have their own "castles" ... I mean houses, or office buildings, with adequate physical security. If you had an actual gold bar, you could safely store your bitcoin paper wallet in the same place. Multi-sig would just require more than one of these safe places.
Also quite possible that Saylor has all the keys anyway, so he can still control all the bitcoin of the company all by himself, I'm still pretty sure it's in some form of multi-sig either case.
How do you think he stores his bitcoin? 18k BTC personal stash, and company coins 108k BTC ... ... You have that much, better put they keys in some building with armed guards. Be your own bank. Literally.
Sure, method of storage might cause some delays in getting access to either the BTC of MSTR or even Saylor's own personal stash, and for sure, neither of us seem to be suggesting that Saylor has any limitations in terms of spending his own stash, and you were the one asserting MSTR coins were locked up for 5 years, and the best you could come up with for such assertion is multi-sig.. that makes little sense. Like I already mentioned, I doubt that they are going to create multi-sig obstacles that lock up their coins for anything beyond various company prudences and security, which is not 5 years, and it seems to me that your assertion that MSTR coins are locked up for 5 years is just purely wrong, even if MSTR/Saylor has said that he his not selling his BTC for 100 years.. blah blah blah (based on his age, he's lucky if he lives even another 40 years).. he still could sell, if he wanted to and made the proper disclosures.
Don't get me wrong, I am not even asserting that Saylor is likely to sell his or his company's BTC anytime soon, and I am mostly of the belief that he will not sell his (or MSTR) BTC any time soon - within this cycle; however, choosing NOT to sell BTC is not the same as being locked into not being able to sell.. and I believe that he is able to sell his BTC (or his company's BTC), but he likely will not.