Topic: Mid-Term Market Prediction Contest (Round 1 - The Results) - page 2. (Read 2717 times)

One tiny bump for exposure. Last day of submitting your predictions.

Come on newcomers, here's your chance to win half a coin. Think of it like a faucet, only requirement is to make a random guess about the price

476
194
292

i will be able to send btc in approx. 24hrs

Accepted, locked in, etc.

yikes. 6 confs already (in 28 mins)... network is on fire!

a)420
b)202
c)303

https://blockchain.info/tx/91b070593c7aeb73a21e6dfb3354177e59af7500b43b722c8a4ee7a01049e63a

Who said anything about trading on any of this. Still a fun exercise, no?

Entry locked in. Thanks.





Accepted and locked in. Thanks.




Locked in. 

Also: There's a tie breaking mechanism, but that way works as well

You didn't think I'd let this one get away from me?

Boring guesses, but meh.

a) $359
b) $224
c) $307

https://blockchain.info/tx/a4e1cb3e13e5409889425c17289f8b03b58e3058621a18c8e0a1170e86a55ba0

edit: changed a) as ryan already picked $360

Okay I will play as well, why not

(a) $418

(b) $218

(c) $320

TX ID: 9292eb5cb1aee9b79323278f78217a2b77fc0b59671394b7a6f171203f2234a9
https://blockchain.info/tx/9292eb5cb1aee9b79323278f78217a2b77fc0b59671394b7a6f171203f2234a9

Well technically I have no idea what the price will do in a few months with such precision. That's not how anyone should trade. Any prediction like this should be made for fun.

Little premise aside, here are my entries:


(a) $274
(b) $86
(c) $190


My guess is that the price will not go anywhere up (significantly), it's probably gonna stay in a long consolidation for a month or more and then eventually there will be another big crash with a temporary bottom anywhere in the upper double digits.



TX ID:    e075efc04a2cc68b997560303c864329e496384fd32dca5a8d982daca5a8803c
https://blockchain.info/tx/e075efc04a2cc68b997560303c864329e496384fd32dca5a8d982daca5a8803c

Looks like this might turn out be a game just between Ryn and me... so if I win, I can transfer 0.5 btc right into my own wallet, thus generating additional fake network activity that is the basis of the current price anyway! /Jorge

Alright. Here's my own entry.

(a) $440

(b) $180

(c) $360

It's based off a chart that I have no idea if it'll ever be in play. I just figured why not put out a fun prediction?  

Edit, I notice that the vwma moves a little erratically so Based on my chart, it would seem to drop and only start rising back up in the next 90 days. We'll see. As I said in my last non-game post, the vwma looks difficult to forecast too far out.

Thanks. Submission by RyNinDaCleM accepted and entered.


Interesting choice of (a) in combination with (c). Something like a relatively low-volume grind up?

Will enter my own prediction tomorrow evening, after doing my own chart voodoo

(a)$360
(b)$207
(c)$290

Tx ID 6ca598dae0166dfe163c032f52fdfb0a199765133f2fc2ea4d3fe2265419e957-000

I wouldn't call it gambling per-se. It's speculation with reward. If I can have a vote, it would be to keep it here.
Otoh had one in 2012-13 for the price of BTC crossing silver/Gold and the market cap >1Bn.

The vwma is a difficult one to forecast. Nice choice! Nothing smooth and predictable about it

Newly generated by myself. Like I said, just to get near dust tx's incoming to confirm you're actually part of this little experiment of ours.

That said, I don't mind adding it to the "jackpot" if total received > tx fees necessary to be paid.

That that said, I'm walking a thin line here, before this thread will be heading over to 'gambling', I'm afraid...

Mods? Any comment?


EDIT: Also, since the submission deadline is more than a week away, probably makes sense to wait until later to submit a prediction.

That address, is it newly generated by you, or an address to some charity? If it's new, why not add that to your .5BTC pledge as a larger jackpot?

Let me do some magisizing and chart-fu and I'll participate.

I had the idea for a game like this in another thread... I thought it might be fun to get a prediction contest going, similar to dnaleor's very entertaining trading simulation, but instead of (daily) estimations and trading, going for a mid-term time scale instead - not trying to look years ahead, but to speculate about the market a few months ahead of time.


The rules:


(1) Post your prediction of the following three key market points.

(a) The highest price (any executed order counts that is not reversed by the exchange or a glitch in the exchange data) during the past 90 days, at the evaluation date, as per Bitfinex.

(b) The lowest price (any executed order counts that is not reversed by the exchange or a glitch in the exchange data) during the past 90 days, at the evaluation date, as per Bitfinex.

(c) The value of a 90 day volume-weighted moving average (daily_close*daily_volume/sum_volume) on Bitfinex data, at the evaluation date. ^(*)


(2) To participate, please send whatever minimal BTC amount you want to the following address: 19j98wABmLk7QXaNN1ZHRqjBJiLPG7jvhA.

To be clear: This is not a participation fee, and I am not asking for donations.

Send whatever dust amount you can get through, I don't care. I want to add this rule to make sure that only people with at least a bare minimum of interest in BTC are making predictions.

Post your predictions together with the txid of the transfer you just made. First post using a txid is counted, any subsequent post mentioning the same txid is ignored.

Alternatively, sign a message from any of your addresses. Again, it doesn't matter how much it contains, this rule is just to make sure you're actually on the network and not just a troll bystander. Make sure it can be related to your forum account, e.g. by mentioning your username.


(3) Evaluating the winner.

All valid predictions (= numerical values for all of (a), (b), (c), plus txid or signed message condition met) entered in here are compared at the end of the prediction period to the actual values of (1) (a), (b) and (c).

For each individual question, whoever is closest to the actual value is ranked highest on that question, followed by the poster who submitted the next closest prediction, and so on.

In case of a tie between participants on an individual question, the date of post is used to break the tie, such that the earlier post is ranked higher than the later post.

To determine the overall winner, a final rank is calculated as follows: [rank in answering question (a) + rank in answering question (b) + rank in answering question (c)], with the lowest resulting number determining the overall winner of the game.

In case of a tie at this step, the poster who is ranked highest on question (b), the 'lowest price' question, is the overall winner. ^(**)


(4) Dates and Deadlines (all in UTC).

(a) Submit your predictions by posting in here no later than Sunday, February 8, 2015.

(b) The evaluation date, i.e. the date at which questions (a), (b), (c) are evaluated by looking back 90 days, will be at the end of Saturday, May 9, 2015.

In other words, the prediction period is February 9 2015 (including) to May 9 2015 (including).

(c) The winner will be determined and declared in here shortly afterwards. Same for the transfer of the award specified right below...


(5) The award.

I pledge to transfer 0.5 BTC, or the BTC equivalent of 115 USD (= 0.5 BTC by current valuation) to the winner of this game, with the choice which of the two amounts will be sent being my personal choice at the time of winner determination (I'd say you should probably expect to receive the lower of the two ^_^)

A note to the mods: If offering an award like this means my post counts as "gambling" and would have to be moved to the gambling ghetto subforum, please let me know. In that case, I'd rather remove the award, but have the post stay in this forum.


Summary:

Post your prediction of (a) highest price during previous 90 days, (b) lowest price during previous 90 days, (c) value of 90 day VWMA, all on Bitfinex, as evaluated on May 9 2015, in this thread, no later than Sunday, February 8 2015. Include the txid of a nominal amount transferred to the address posted above, or a signed message mentioning your forum name.


Disclaimer:

The above rules are subject to change (for example, if someone discovers a game-breaking loophole in them), until the submission deadline on February 8. Only the rules as defined by that date count, including the possibility that the game cannot be held at all (if, for example, forum rules prevent having a game like this in here).



Who's in?



Notes:

^(*) "Volume-weighted average" (VWMA) =/= "weighted average " (WMA). This prediction is about price weighted by volume. Current VWMA value is ~$290. Here's a graph of it over the past months.

^(**) Because most of our discussions right now are about whether "the bottom is in" or not.