Mining in 20 years time - page 6. | Bitcointalksearch.org

LoyceV

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Quote from: deisik on July 10, 2016, 08:45:46 AM

Quote from: LoyceV on July 10, 2016, 08:19:45 AM

Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

Why is this hard to imagine? People were mining back at the start of Bitcoin, when it had no value at all. Don't forget you don't need a lot of miners, 1 computer can be enough to confirm all transactions!
The big benefit of having a lot of miners is of course that it's harder to attack the blockchain.

Transaction fees are already a few percent of the block reward. In 20 years, especially if blocks get bigger and allow more transactions, the fees could add up to Bitcoins per block.

Actually, the transaction fees revenue is below 2% of the block reward (1.84% according to the blockchain.info stats).

I just clicked the last 4 blocks (420278-420281). These are the fees: 1.01175876 + 0.49726408 + 0.3535004 + 0.4455881 = 2.30811134 BTC. That is 4.616% of the 50 BTC block rewards (for 4 blocks). Either way, it's a few percent, like I said. And it doesn't matter really, fees will only go up relative to block reward.

Quote

Not very far from a statistical error

Absolute data has nothing to do with statistical errors.

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Quote from: deisik on July 11, 2016, 07:09:00 AM

Quote from: pedrog on July 11, 2016, 06:48:33 AM

There will be no miners in 20 years because subsidy is to small to pay mining and bitcoin developers don't allow enough on chain transactions to maintain enough mining to keep the network safe, so bitcoin will be irrelevant or forked into POS.

They can always cancel halving in the interim (which is a must-do thing if they want Bitcoin to go on)

The transaction fee is quite high now. It is almost 1 bitcoin at some blocks. In the next few years, it will be even higher.

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Quote from: pedrog on July 11, 2016, 06:48:33 AM

There will be no miners in 20 years because subsidy is to small to pay mining and bitcoin developers don't allow enough on chain transactions to maintain enough mining to keep the network safe, so bitcoin will be irrelevant or forked into POS.

They can always cancel halving in the interim (which is a must-do thing if they want Bitcoin to go on)

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There will be no miners in 20 years because subsidy is to small to pay mining and bitcoin developers don't allow enough on chain transactions to maintain enough mining to keep the network safe, so bitcoin will be irrelevant or forked into POS.

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Quote from: AioFox on July 10, 2016, 03:37:16 PM

20years = 5times the Bitcoin block would go into halving.

1st Halving: 6.25BTC per block
2nd Halving: 3.125BTC per block
3rd Havling: 1.567BTC per block
4th Halving: 0.783BTC per block
5th Halving: 0.391BTC per block (seems really sad at this point)

I plan to finish my dealing with bitcoin within this four year period before the next halving happens. Unless Bitcoin would be really valuable by then.

thats some great statistics, when not a lot of bitcoins will be mined then more people will be using it and more bitcoins will be collected via the transactions, i think the mining will still be ok

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Would mining still exist in 20 years time? And what would price look like? It's so distant future that is hard to tell anything.

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20years = 5times the Bitcoin block would go into halving.

1st Halving: 6.25BTC per block
2nd Halving: 3.125BTC per block
3rd Havling: 1.567BTC per block
4th Halving: 0.783BTC per block
5th Halving: 0.391BTC per block (seems really sad at this point)

I plan to finish my dealing with bitcoin within this four year period before the next halving happens. Unless Bitcoin would be really valuable by then.

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Quote from: Herbert2020 on July 10, 2016, 07:07:17 AM

Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

as others said there is always bitcoin price increase that can save miners from going under. besides you don't have to worry about the far future, stick to the present!

also in the future when block reward is lower fees will be increased (assuming price hasn't gone up) to cover the costs of mining.

However if this happen, I mean fees will be increased, it would not be very attractive to users, so it does not sound like very good alternative.

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Quote from: n691309 on July 10, 2016, 09:11:02 AM

Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

At that time the block reward for miners is somewhere at 0.390625BTC which is pretty low comparing with today's reward. 20 years from now the price should much higher to see miner still mining.

At that time, the transaction fee will be more than 1 bitcoin. The transaction fees in some current blocks are already more than 1 bitcoin.

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Quote from: n691309 on July 10, 2016, 09:11:02 AM

Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

At that time the block reward for miners is somewhere at 0.390625BTC which is pretty low comparing with today's reward. 20 years from now the price should much higher to see miner still mining.

That's kind of the problem, the price has to be higher or else the system breaks down. If the price doesn't rise, there won't be enough miners to ensure enough decentralization to make it secure. To offset, fees have to rise to keep miners in, but fees can't rise to the point where Bitcoin is too expensive to use either. Cheap, efficient, and safe are the main draws to Bitcoin at the moment, and it doesn't seem like a viable alternative if any of those elements start to break down.

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Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

At that time the block reward for miners is somewhere at 0.390625BTC which is pretty low comparing with today's reward. 20 years from now the price should much higher to see miner still mining.

deisik

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Quote from: LoyceV on July 10, 2016, 08:19:45 AM

Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

Why is this hard to imagine? People were mining back at the start of Bitcoin, when it had no value at all. Don't forget you don't need a lot of miners, 1 computer can be enough to confirm all transactions!
The big benefit of having a lot of miners is of course that it's harder to attack the blockchain.

Transaction fees are already a few percent of the block reward. In 20 years, especially if blocks get bigger and allow more transactions, the fees could add up to Bitcoins per block.

Actually, the transaction fees revenue is below 2% of the block reward (1.84% according to the blockchain.info stats). Not very far from a statistical error

LoyceV

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Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

Why is this hard to imagine? People were mining back at the start of Bitcoin, when it had no value at all. Don't forget you don't need a lot of miners, 1 computer can be enough to confirm all transactions!
The big benefit of having a lot of miners is of course that it's harder to attack the blockchain.

Transaction fees are already a few percent of the block reward. In 20 years, especially if blocks get bigger and allow more transactions, the fees could add up to Bitcoins per block.

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Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

I think you're hitting on an important risk. One of two things will have to happen: price will have to increase to the point where fees collected will cover mining costs, or fees will have to rise to that point. In either case, the least efficient miners will be forced out, and there is likely to be the risk of centralization as a result of the disappearance of the the individual miners. But it seems likely that fees have to increase either way, absent an enormous growth in transactional volume and the infrastructure changes to the blockchain to accompany that.

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Quote from: Xester on July 10, 2016, 07:47:38 AM

Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

20 years from now mining difficulty will be twenty times harder and more efficient hardwares will replace the old ones. Unlike today miners can harvest btc monthly but 20 years from now they can only mine satoshi. At that time also bitcoins price is twenty times bigger than the current price. Also bitcoin wallets can be carried or be placed on your pocket with the use of a device that looks like a small calculator.

There is no reason to assume that bitcoin's price will be 20 times higher in 20 years just based on time passed alone. You cannot count on such an occurrence to save the system since price operates independently based on far more complex factors.

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Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

20 years from now mining difficulty will be twenty times harder and more efficient hardwares will replace the old ones. Unlike today miners can harvest btc monthly but 20 years from now they can only mine satoshi. At that time also bitcoins price is twenty times bigger than the current price. Also bitcoin wallets can be carried or be placed on your pocket with the use of a device that looks like a small calculator.

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Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

as others said there is always bitcoin price increase that can save miners from going under. besides you don't have to worry about the far future, stick to the present!

also in the future when block reward is lower fees will be increased (assuming price hasn't gone up) to cover the costs of mining.

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Quote from: GamingOn on July 10, 2016, 04:27:39 AM

Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

either bitcoin's price will increase if not then a lot of miners will stop mining and difficulty will decrease but there will always some miners to mine bitcoin , that will enough to verify transactions.

Possibilities that theirs no bitcoin miner at that time or if their will be only few because mining blocks difficulty are been more higher at that time comes and surely some of the miners will sold their farms as ived seen their is already selling just posted today but i dont know if that is real or its just a troll.

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Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

By that time revenue has to come nearly in full from collected transaction fees. Let's say that by that time the price is $10,000 per coin, and pools scoop up around 1BTC in fees per time, then everything will be just fine. More adoption means more transaction fees that pools can collect. Right now block values with fees included are far below $10,000 so do your calculations.

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Quote from: ekissane on July 10, 2016, 04:12:53 AM

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

either bitcoin's price will increase if not then a lot of miners will stop mining and difficulty will decrease but there will always some miners to mine bitcoin , that will enough to verify transactions.

Topic: Mining in 20 years time - page 6. (Read 6177 times)