Mining profits over the next six months...

knowhow

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Quote from: Amph on October 16, 2015, 01:30:36 AM

Quote from: QuintLeo on October 15, 2015, 04:58:09 AM

Quote from: OgNasty on October 15, 2015, 04:53:51 AM

Quote from: QuintLeo on October 15, 2015, 04:50:22 AM

The biggest longer-term factor is that ASIC technology for Bitcoin is getty very very close to the current state-of-the-art - which means that "new generations" of ASIC won't be happening on an every year basis any more, past the final jump to full-custom 14/16NM that will probably happen next year, likely late in the year.

I suspect 2017 will show the lowest diff increase rate and greatest stability of difficulty of all time for Bitcoin, after a wild ride the rest of 2015 and most or all of 2016.

The next 6 (and 12 and probably 18ish) months in Bitcoin mining look to be "interesting times".

Sounds like you think the price will remain stable? What would happen to your 2017 prediction if the market rate hits $4,000 in 2016?

$4000? I doubt we'll see that in the next 20 years, much less the next decade or sooner.
$1000? Perhaps within a decade, but doubt that will happen again before the end of 2020.

the value of bitcoin is not very predictable, now can you tell me, that you were expecting the 1200 value(the last ath) to be reached in 2013? i guess no, no one was expecting it

1k or 4k, are nothing if there are the right demand behind it, we can hit that on the next halving quite easily

Bitcoin will only get biger value as bitcoin brings new investments inside,new members,the beneficts we know but the rest of the world dont,bitcoin get mainstream will lead into an incorporation of value,the sky is the limit and we dont know when it will moove.

notlist3d

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Quote from: notlist3d on October 16, 2015, 05:27:40 PM

Quote from: Bitcoininspace on October 16, 2015, 03:51:35 AM

Quote from: notlist3d on October 10, 2015, 11:54:57 PM

Quote from: edric on October 10, 2015, 11:40:09 PM

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down. They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis. I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin. If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections? I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it. Thanks!

It is not easy to predict 6 month's away. In mining time this is a LONG LONG time. We try to predict it weekly and even then there are surprises.

With difficulty it will go down in 6 months. But how much no one can say for sure. If we knew there would not be speculation.

Why would you think difficulty will go down?

In my opinion the price won't be dropping under 200$ anymore, and with the halving coming up soon I predict a change in price a couple months before that. The price will at least double before the halving I believe and thus mining will either stabalize or increase as more people buy new mining equipment and try to ROI asap.

Some will sell, like they do on a daily basis, most will hold, and some but not few will hold even if btc price doubles cause they know the sky is the limit.

That sounds wrong's after re-reading. It should be profit goes down in 6 months not difficulty. It's guaranteed in the next 6 months you will get less and less BTC for mining since difficulty.

We don't know price so value is still hard to predict.

Today is the perfect example of why 6 month is hard if not impossible to predict. We are at 264 right now.

Who would have guessed the increase in 24 hours? Not many so we really can't guess 6 months with accuracy. Even with the best speculation.

notlist3d

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Quote from: Bitcoininspace on October 16, 2015, 03:51:35 AM

Quote from: notlist3d on October 10, 2015, 11:54:57 PM

Quote from: edric on October 10, 2015, 11:40:09 PM

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down. They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis. I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin. If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections? I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it. Thanks!

It is not easy to predict 6 month's away. In mining time this is a LONG LONG time. We try to predict it weekly and even then there are surprises.

With difficulty it will go down in 6 months. But how much no one can say for sure. If we knew there would not be speculation.

Why would you think difficulty will go down?

In my opinion the price won't be dropping under 200$ anymore, and with the halving coming up soon I predict a change in price a couple months before that. The price will at least double before the halving I believe and thus mining will either stabalize or increase as more people buy new mining equipment and try to ROI asap.

Some will sell, like they do on a daily basis, most will hold, and some but not few will hold even if btc price doubles cause they know the sky is the limit.

That sounds wrong's after re-reading. It should be profit goes down in 6 months not difficulty. It's guaranteed in the next 6 months you will get less and less BTC for mining since difficulty.

We don't know price so value is still hard to predict.

YuginKadoya

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Quote from: edric on October 10, 2015, 11:40:09 PM

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down. They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis. I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin. If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections? I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it. Thanks!

6 months is a huge amount of time to speculate if it is profitable, and there are lots of variables to settle before doing it
first the amount of investment you will give in mining, how much resources you will give, the payment for expenses, and the number of miner you would use! I think you can profit for 4 to 5 months max if you can have the best equiptment and knowledge for mining, and add to this the weather conditions to can give a great advantage or disadvantage to you, (summer, winter, etc....)

Bitcoininspace

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Quote from: notlist3d on October 10, 2015, 11:54:57 PM

Quote from: edric on October 10, 2015, 11:40:09 PM

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down. They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis. I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin. If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections? I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it. Thanks!

It is not easy to predict 6 month's away. In mining time this is a LONG LONG time. We try to predict it weekly and even then there are surprises.

With difficulty it will go down in 6 months. But how much no one can say for sure. If we knew there would not be speculation.

Why would you think difficulty will go down?

In my opinion the price won't be dropping under 200$ anymore, and with the halving coming up soon I predict a change in price a couple months before that. The price will at least double before the halving I believe and thus mining will either stabalize or increase as more people buy new mining equipment and try to ROI asap.

Some will sell, like they do on a daily basis, most will hold, and some but not few will hold even if btc price doubles cause they know the sky is the limit.

notlist3d

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Quote from: VirosaGITS on October 16, 2015, 02:03:43 AM

Quote from: Amph on October 16, 2015, 01:30:36 AM

Quote from: QuintLeo on October 15, 2015, 04:58:09 AM

Quote from: OgNasty on October 15, 2015, 04:53:51 AM

Quote from: QuintLeo on October 15, 2015, 04:50:22 AM

The biggest longer-term factor is that ASIC technology for Bitcoin is getty very very close to the current state-of-the-art - which means that "new generations" of ASIC won't be happening on an every year basis any more, past the final jump to full-custom 14/16NM that will probably happen next year, likely late in the year.

I suspect 2017 will show the lowest diff increase rate and greatest stability of difficulty of all time for Bitcoin, after a wild ride the rest of 2015 and most or all of 2016.

The next 6 (and 12 and probably 18ish) months in Bitcoin mining look to be "interesting times".

Sounds like you think the price will remain stable? What would happen to your 2017 prediction if the market rate hits $4,000 in 2016?

$4000? I doubt we'll see that in the next 20 years, much less the next decade or sooner.
$1000? Perhaps within a decade, but doubt that will happen again before the end of 2020.

the value of bitcoin is very predictable, now can you tell me, that you were expecting the 1200 value(the last ath) to be reached in 2013? i guess no, no one was expecting it

1k or 4k, are nothing if there are the right demand behind it, we can hit that on the next halving quite easily

It never truly reached 1200, or 1000 or 600. It was false trade data ramping up the BTC value. The price value was based on false confidence, therefore it would be a fallacy to include the mt-gox portion of BTC history as a valid comparison.

We'll be lucky if we're at stable over 300$ by halving. 400$ sound doable with speculative value of BTC raising due to halving. 600$ would be a stretch. Trust is only built slowly.

All the credit can't be given to MT Gox. I mean many of us back then were purchasing for high prices and felt it was justified at the time. Luckily I invested mine in mining equipment over just straight BTC or would have lost. If you do not include Mt Gox it's not a fallacy but editing bitcoins history. There had to be customers purchasing at those prices... it was not all bot.

But it's harc to say what will happen at having or before. There is nothing to justify it will or wont be 600. It's a guess at best. Right now we have a slow moving upward trend.... that looks very nice.

VirosaGITS

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Quote from: Amph on October 16, 2015, 01:30:36 AM

Quote from: QuintLeo on October 15, 2015, 04:58:09 AM

Quote from: OgNasty on October 15, 2015, 04:53:51 AM

Quote from: QuintLeo on October 15, 2015, 04:50:22 AM

The biggest longer-term factor is that ASIC technology for Bitcoin is getty very very close to the current state-of-the-art - which means that "new generations" of ASIC won't be happening on an every year basis any more, past the final jump to full-custom 14/16NM that will probably happen next year, likely late in the year.

I suspect 2017 will show the lowest diff increase rate and greatest stability of difficulty of all time for Bitcoin, after a wild ride the rest of 2015 and most or all of 2016.

The next 6 (and 12 and probably 18ish) months in Bitcoin mining look to be "interesting times".

Sounds like you think the price will remain stable? What would happen to your 2017 prediction if the market rate hits $4,000 in 2016?

$4000? I doubt we'll see that in the next 20 years, much less the next decade or sooner.
$1000? Perhaps within a decade, but doubt that will happen again before the end of 2020.

the value of bitcoin is very predictable, now can you tell me, that you were expecting the 1200 value(the last ath) to be reached in 2013? i guess no, no one was expecting it

1k or 4k, are nothing if there are the right demand behind it, we can hit that on the next halving quite easily

It never truly reached 1200, or 1000 or 600. It was false trade data ramping up the BTC value. The price value was based on false confidence, therefore it would be a fallacy to include the mt-gox portion of BTC history as a valid comparison.

We'll be lucky if we're at stable over 300$ by halving. 400$ sound doable with speculative value of BTC raising due to halving. 600$ would be a stretch. Trust is only built slowly.

Amph

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Quote from: QuintLeo on October 15, 2015, 04:58:09 AM

Quote from: OgNasty on October 15, 2015, 04:53:51 AM

Quote from: QuintLeo on October 15, 2015, 04:50:22 AM

The biggest longer-term factor is that ASIC technology for Bitcoin is getty very very close to the current state-of-the-art - which means that "new generations" of ASIC won't be happening on an every year basis any more, past the final jump to full-custom 14/16NM that will probably happen next year, likely late in the year.

I suspect 2017 will show the lowest diff increase rate and greatest stability of difficulty of all time for Bitcoin, after a wild ride the rest of 2015 and most or all of 2016.

The next 6 (and 12 and probably 18ish) months in Bitcoin mining look to be "interesting times".

Sounds like you think the price will remain stable? What would happen to your 2017 prediction if the market rate hits $4,000 in 2016?

$4000? I doubt we'll see that in the next 20 years, much less the next decade or sooner.
$1000? Perhaps within a decade, but doubt that will happen again before the end of 2020.

the value of bitcoin is not very predictable, now can you tell me, that you were expecting the 1200 value(the last ath) to be reached in 2013? i guess no, no one was expecting it

1k or 4k, are nothing if there are the right demand behind it, we can hit that on the next halving quite easily

OgNasty

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Quote from: QuintLeo on October 15, 2015, 04:58:09 AM

$4000? I doubt we'll see that in the next 20 years, much less the next decade or sooner.
$1000? Perhaps within a decade, but doubt that will happen again before the end of 2020.

Barring a catastrophic event for Bitcoin, I do not see how it could possibly be below $1,000 in 2020. It will either be well above that price point, or it will be considered dead. The market cap is currently too small for the stabilization theory.

QuintLeo

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Quote from: OgNasty on October 15, 2015, 04:53:51 AM

Quote from: QuintLeo on October 15, 2015, 04:50:22 AM

The biggest longer-term factor is that ASIC technology for Bitcoin is getty very very close to the current state-of-the-art - which means that "new generations" of ASIC won't be happening on an every year basis any more, past the final jump to full-custom 14/16NM that will probably happen next year, likely late in the year.

I suspect 2017 will show the lowest diff increase rate and greatest stability of difficulty of all time for Bitcoin, after a wild ride the rest of 2015 and most or all of 2016.

The next 6 (and 12 and probably 18ish) months in Bitcoin mining look to be "interesting times".

Sounds like you think the price will remain stable? What would happen to your 2017 prediction if the market rate hits $4,000 in 2016?

I believe there will be a "bump" a little before the halfing, somewhat of a fallback after, and other than that only small bounces and a very gradual climb longterm.
The only way I think this will change is if some major economic event happens that convinced folks to adopt Bitcoin en mass, but I don't see that being likely with the limitations of Bitcoin.

$4000? I doubt we'll see that in the next 20 years, much less the next decade or sooner.
$1000? Perhaps within a decade, but doubt that will happen again before the end of 2020.

OgNasty

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Quote from: QuintLeo on October 15, 2015, 04:50:22 AM

The biggest longer-term factor is that ASIC technology for Bitcoin is getty very very close to the current state-of-the-art - which means that "new generations" of ASIC won't be happening on an every year basis any more, past the final jump to full-custom 14/16NM that will probably happen next year, likely late in the year.

I suspect 2017 will show the lowest diff increase rate and greatest stability of difficulty of all time for Bitcoin, after a wild ride the rest of 2015 and most or all of 2016.

The next 6 (and 12 and probably 18ish) months in Bitcoin mining look to be "interesting times".

Sounds like you think the price will remain stable? What would happen to your 2017 prediction if the market rate hits $4,000 in 2016?

QuintLeo

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The biggest longer-term factor is that ASIC technology for Bitcoin is getty very very close to the current state-of-the-art - which means that "new generations" of ASIC won't be happening on an every year basis any more, past the final jump to full-custom 14/16NM that will probably happen next year, likely late in the year.

I suspect 2017 will show the lowest diff increase rate and greatest stability of difficulty of all time for Bitcoin, after a wild ride the rest of 2015 and most or all of 2016.

The next 6 (and 12 and probably 18ish) months in Bitcoin mining look to be "interesting times".

P.S. Moore's Law itself seems to be mutating, as semi processes procede further into the region where quantum effects are a serious limit to progress. It's more like "double the transistor count every 3 years" now as opposed to the original 18-24 months ballpark.

notlist3d

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Quote from: BLOCK_C on October 14, 2015, 07:50:10 PM

I think the global will continue to group causing the revenue to drop over time. If you look at Moore's law performance should double every 18 months at the cutting edge. We're just now getting close to that cutting edge (maybe another year or so and we'll be at the cutting edge) of a well developed chip running at between 14-20nm. This is still a lot of room to improve on the current chips without having to go all the way to the lowest nm chips out there. That being said even on Moore's law the network should be growing about 5% per month just on a technology basis. The next gen chips just came out from the major players so I wouldn't be surprised to see 600P in 6 months or about a 30% drop in revenue spread out over that time frame. This barring of course any large increase or decrease in BTC price.

Your jumping over many things. First machines increase in efficiency so you could consider Moore's law in it I guess. But running this new efficient gear means LESS electricity cost. So you are making less and spending less on costs... so it should even out in perfect world which this isnt.

Also having is coming up it will effect mining more then any new miner. It might hurt pretty bad. All depends if price of BTC goes up. It's just to far ahead to know what will happen.

VirosaGITS

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Quote from: BLOCK_C on October 14, 2015, 07:50:10 PM

I think the global will continue to group causing the revenue to drop over time. If you look at Moore's law performance should double every 18 months at the cutting edge. We're just now getting close to that cutting edge (maybe another year or so and we'll be at the cutting edge) of a well developed chip running at between 14-20nm. This is still a lot of room to improve on the current chips without having to go all the way to the lowest nm chips out there. That being said even on Moore's law the network should be growing about 5% per month just on a technology basis. The next gen chips just came out from the major players so I wouldn't be surprised to see 600P in 6 months or about a 30% drop in revenue spread out over that time frame. This barring of course any large increase or decrease in BTC price.

That could make sense, but in the world of ASIC, cutting edge is usually trumped by cheap mass-produced. It's more profitable to make a lot of cheap ASIC running on 0.02$/kWh than making cutting edge ASIC which is several factor costlier than a few generation back and run it on anything available in the US (Not much cheaper than 0.05$/kWh anywhere, afaik)

So i understand that technology advancement will continue, i do not think it will account for 5% per month of growth overall.

BLOCK_C

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I think the global will continue to group causing the revenue to drop over time. If you look at Moore's law performance should double every 18 months at the cutting edge. We're just now getting close to that cutting edge (maybe another year or so and we'll be at the cutting edge) of a well developed chip running at between 14-20nm. This is still a lot of room to improve on the current chips without having to go all the way to the lowest nm chips out there. That being said even on Moore's law the network should be growing about 5% per month just on a technology basis. The next gen chips just came out from the major players so I wouldn't be surprised to see 600P in 6 months or about a 30% drop in revenue spread out over that time frame. This barring of course any large increase or decrease in BTC price.

notlist3d

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Quote from: knowhow on October 14, 2015, 04:42:15 PM

Technology improvements on the last years has advanced very fast,predict the next sixt months and the new equipments being developed is insane to even thing,sometime ago miner were at 2 ths max now it has around 5th and above it already,the protitable mining will occur easy again when bitcoin goes up,maybe the 500 dollars value would bring the solo hash stoped back to the road ,otherwise they would be kept ofline .

The biggest thing about gear 6 months from now I think is lower NM. We will be closer to the having. So I wonder how efficient we will be.

I think we will be surprised how efficient miners will be. At 6 months from now I think not only will it be lower NM but a little more perfected then any announced (like LKETC).

Guess we will see what happens.

knowhow

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Technology improvements on the last years has advanced very fast,predict the next sixt months and the new equipments being developed is insane to even thing,sometime ago miner were at 2 ths max now it has around 5th and above it already,the protitable mining will occur easy again when bitcoin goes up,maybe the 500 dollars value would bring the solo hash stoped back to the road ,otherwise they would be kept ofline .

QuintLeo

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Quote

If difficulty goes down

Barring a major Bitcoin price collapse, probability ZERO before the halfing, except perhaps on a "one adjustment" basis - then the next adjustment will go up a LOT.

I suspect there will be a short-term drop after the halfing, unless bitcoin price goes up quite a bit between now and then, as the halfing will make a TON of older gear unprofitable for most folks in most locations. Even relatively recent units like the S5 and SP20 will get either UNprofitable, or very very LOW profitable, even if your electric is lower cost than average.

I'd not bet on Bitcoin doubling in price before the halfing.
50% jump in the month or so before the halfing I would not be supprised to see.

I suspect that the "14/16nm full custom" chip generation will see the last significant increase in efficiency for a few years, once those come out and the initial rush to buy that hardware gets worked through, I suspect difficulty will go very close to flat for quite a while - similar to the first half of this year but more so and longer. *WHEN* that will happen is very much up in the air right now though - I'd guess end of 2016 might see the start of that relatively "flat" period, but that's strictly a guess.

notlist3d

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Quote from: Mickeyb on October 11, 2015, 08:14:51 AM

Quote from: notlist3d on October 10, 2015, 11:54:57 PM

Quote from: edric on October 10, 2015, 11:40:09 PM

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down. They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis. I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin. If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections? I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it. Thanks!

It is not easy to predict 6 month's away. In mining time this is a LONG LONG time. We try to predict it weekly and even then there are surprises.

With difficulty it will go down in 6 months. But how much no one can say for sure. If we knew there would not be speculation.

I agree. 6 months is a huge time frame in the mining world. Also we need to calculate the upcoming halving into the equation. How will the miners that are barely making their ROI react with the upcoming halving? Will they drop out of the game? It makes sense that they will if the price stays the same and reward halfs.

There are many many questions and many decisions that must be anticipated ahead of the time in the mining game.

Having is the big scary thing a lot don't think about. We can hope that we get BTC to go up in value. But 2x in value.... that might take a while.

I just am afraid what will happen at having. And I could be afraid for nothing possibly for having someone comes out with a miner that efficiency is amazing and it does not make much of a difference.

Mickeyb

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Quote from: notlist3d on October 10, 2015, 11:54:57 PM

Quote from: edric on October 10, 2015, 11:40:09 PM

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down. They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis. I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin. If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections? I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it. Thanks!

It is not easy to predict 6 month's away. In mining time this is a LONG LONG time. We try to predict it weekly and even then there are surprises.

With difficulty it will go down in 6 months. But how much no one can say for sure. If we knew there would not be speculation.

I agree. 6 months is a huge time frame in the mining world. Also we need to calculate the upcoming halving into the equation. How will the miners that are barely making their ROI react with the upcoming halving? Will they drop out of the game? It makes sense that they will if the price stays the same and reward halfs.

There are many many questions and many decisions that must be anticipated ahead of the time in the mining game.

Topic: Mining profits over the next six months... (Read 1846 times)