In another thread, the plausible argument was made that MRO is presently overvalued at 1/342 BTC. This is a reasonable position, if one takes the historic price series of bitcoin to imply a discounting curve, and apply that to MRO.
I had considered this previously, but rapidly rejected the argument, on two principal grounds:
1) The adversities which BTC overcame during that time constituted existential threats. No successor crypto faces those adversities. Much has been learned. The probability of a flaw or event fatal to the project is vastly -- and I do mean vastly -- lower. However it is challenging to accurately quantify how much lower. I would dearly love some input on this point.
Toward this I would only expect claims of people "getting something for nothing" from the Bitcoin (or any alt) community in respect to the amount of hurdles that had to be overcame in Bitcoin. I do; however, think you're correct in your rejection of this. The claim is founded on those that present their opinion that they were overcoming these adversities for their own currency, when in fact they were overcoming them for any future implementation of any cryptocurrency by the simple grace of the open source mindset that's prevalent here. Anyone saying differently is just worried about their market cap. Maybe I should spend some time understanding what these licenses are though before I say more about that.
To say that you appreciate, fundamentally, someone else's work and then continue it in your own way is by no means wrong or worthless. What makes value, here, is the ability to withstand whatever comes in future that you have created for yourself (and make sure that it will indeed be different than the one you've branched from), not only what those have done in the past. The key here is to never forget that you once or still stand on the shoulders of giants -- even in your own pursuit of becoming one. I say this under the presumption that if put into the same scenario, I would have made an attempt to overcome it in a similar fashion.
As far as being able to quantify a lower risk of failure, well that's an incredible concept. It's as if you're asking : What, of value, have we created here? Amongst a sea of questions, that is one of the biggest. To me, value is one of the major factors of calculating the "probability of a flaw or event fatal to the project". While what defines value, to me, is what Monero is quantified by.
In that mindset, Monero has a constantly growing team of developers, community members and speculators. It is based on CryptoNote technology. It has begin to provide the tools of mass adoption for the CryptoNote technology, rather rapidly in my opinion. Those three things I know for sure.
Other variables I'd like to see are a specific outline (in list form) of CryptoNote technology as it is now and what we can add to it (I know Taco already did something with MIP's on github - awesome way to start), and improve on it. I'd like to see a standard usage protocol for the tx_extra field, for at least until a time in which that responsibility can be dictated to other groups. It's data recorded on our blockchain and we should have a say of what it is, in my opinion. I'd like to see large sized businesses become a welcomed addition to the variables, as well as one man shops. I'm sure there's a lot of other things that can be added here, so I'd like to hear some ideas other ideas as well (I'll try to think of some more as well).
This is actually a solvable problem, if only by degree, with error bars. And the value of solving it can be quite large. It will require some creative and some rigorous thought, as well as factual data.
Talking about this problem, as constructively as possible (and learning how to tune out the noise when it comes -- it has and will always continue), will be one of the major innovations of this currency. A currency/store of value that knows what it wants and where its going will grow up quick.