Topic: Moneypot just took a huge loss? - page 3. (Read 7588 times)

yup, i invested when mp since the available of the take over and it is still way deep in the red.

well i am not complaining cause i believe in the end, i will still make it in the green. when i start to invest in mp, i also got hit by a huge loss but i still manage to bear it out, not as huge as this tho.

If you invested soon before the drop, I'd say you're looking at 1.5-2 months, assuming another hit doesn't come. But that's the joy with investments: you don't know what's going to happen. The only difference between investing in a site and playing on it is that the house (investment) has a long-term positive. It could take 6 months. It could take 5 years. It could take 50000 years. The math doesn't say *when* it will occur, just that, under mathematical principles, it will.

well, why did i say months is becuz it took about 2 to 3 months for me to gain certain amount of btc and now to get back on the green, by the same rate i experience before, i would say need another month from this post onward.

And in the first 30 days, the site ended up like +28 BTC, so following that pattern, it should just be a couple weeks for breakeven.

I think "months" would very likely be an overstatement. In post #3, ndnhc posted that the investor profit was -27.3 btc on Jan 29. At this moment, the investor profit is only -19.0 btc. With this trend, the number could turn back positive in a month or so, but of course it could also receive another heavy blow.

sound dangerous. must be aware about this. it's not look like it can turn back to normal anytime soon, but i really hope it will.

Depending on the amount wagered actually. Most of the sites in moneypot has a standard house edge of around 1 % so if they want to recover 25~ btc then it will need atleast 2500 btc wagered , around 25 days assuming it has 100 btc wagered per day without any surprise variance to take a hit for the house. Due note that this number is just average so it could be faster or slower

today i just went to see my moneypot and the drop is really very huge for me. it is gonna to take months to recover the losses.

Well, my withdraw came through so all sorted out now. Thanks for getting this fixed up for me.

Nothing was delayed, per se. To keep a bit safer, the site runs far less BTC in the hot wallet than the cold wallet. There were a lot of withdrawals the day he tried to withdraw, which had drained the hot wallet. At this point, Blazed had made a withdrawal that exceeded its balance, which puts it in a "failed" state for admins to take care of. Shortly after, there were more deposits, but the system doesn't automatically attempt to keep pushing transactions through that are already "failed," so it still requires admin intervention.

Past that, I apologize but I have no information, .

Alright...still nothing though.

I think when there are several admins such problems occur.
If even one of them is no satisfied with a particular result, they will have to pause and stop withdrawals unless all are satisfied.

are you one of the new owners of MP?

as far as I understood MP paid out the OP's big win and confirmed there was nothing wrong with his bets. why are you still delaying all withdrawals?

Misinformation ftw. Ranlo didn't start the thread so Ranlo had no control over the thread so Ranlo could not have possibly locked the thread. Ranlo never censors anyone.

@Blazed, there was a note among admins about the withdrawal. Not sure why it hadn't been sent yet. I'll ping it...

I withdrawed around 0.25 like 7 hours ago and it is sent immediately . The old thread by rhavar has been locked and there is a new moneypot's thread but it seems some app owner is derailing his personal issue there which clutter up the thread with the same complaint so ranlo locked the thread

I have been waiting 48 hours now for a withdraw... anyone else having issues? Is there a main thread for MoneyPot anymore?

Edit: it is a small amount also... little under .4BTC

The charts I posted assume the player has an infinite bankroll, and makes a max bet every time. ie. I'm already assuming the player(s) have more than the site.


That would depend on how bustabit sets its maximum bet. I think Ryan sets it way too high most of the time relative to the site's bankroll. I expect he's operating way past the peak on the chart, and maybe has a negative expectation of log bankroll growth if everyone was to max bet all the time. But it's not (last i heard) open to public investment, and he's aware of the risks, so what can you do?


It would depend hugely on the other numbers in the payout table. The Kelly calculation is dominated by the more common payout multipliers.

Thanks for clearing it up.

Makes perfect sense now.

The bet went through because the site was using the Kelly criterion to decide how much of its bankroll to risk. The Kelly criterion tells it to risk 35.3% of its bankroll when playing the 'red' line (with 121x max payout).


People are familiar with dice site style betting, where there are only two outcomes (win/lose). In that case Kelly tells us that the percentage of the bankroll to risk is the same as the percentage house edge.

It's quite different for plinko games where there are a range of outcomes. In that case Kelly tells us to risk more than (house edge)% of the bankroll. See my most recent two charts. Risking 35% hits the peak of those charts. Risking only 1% gets you far lower expected log growth.


It appears that 35.3% is optimal (for the 121x red line - it differs vastly depending on the line we're talking about). And looking at the chart, it looks like risking half that doesn't reduce the expected log growth by a whole lot.


Those were for different payout lines. The 83% was for the 'orange' line, and the 99% was a silly extreme example where all the payouts were very close to 1x and the true house edge was much higher than 1% (since the player isn't really risking most of his stake at all when there's no chance of losing most of it).

The orange line pays out like this:


and when I ran a simulation I got a plot of return against risk like this:



It peaks around 83% as expected. Risking half that looks like it gets you around 60-70% of the expected growth.

In a case where a player's bankroll is higher than the site bankroll, wouldn't such a system maximize the risk (along with expected profit)? Is that desirable, say, against a 1% fixed max profit?

Am I correct to say that in such a case, an investment in bustabit would be safer than one in moneypot?


Edit: What would be the max bet (on a 1% HE) on a 999x line on a 100BTC bankroll? I think it would be higher than LB's..