🌟🎲🌟 MoneyPot.com - page 57.

dooglus

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Quote from: Helix61be on August 12, 2016, 10:06:03 AM

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.

That's a common fallacy. Whether every player keeps playing until they bust, or stops as soon as they are ahead, the law of large numbers still applies, and the house profit still tends towards the expected house profit in the long run.

dooglus

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Quote from: DebitMe on August 11, 2016, 10:22:51 PM

Quote from: Helix61be on August 11, 2016, 10:07:35 PM

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

No, it's just wrong. He's saying you can divide the returns the bankroll should earn over a year by the bankroll amount to get an estimate of your expected earnings on an annual percentage basis.

Suppose the bankroll is 2000 BTC and the expected earnings are 1000 BTC per year. Using QS's formula that gives 1000/2000 = 0.5 as his annual percentage expected earnings whereas in reality earning 1000 from 2000 is more like 50%. I think he forgot a factor of 100 somewhere.

Dogedigital

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Quote from: Bitinity on August 02, 2016, 10:52:29 AM

Quote from: cazkooo on August 02, 2016, 10:46:12 AM

Quote from: Dogedigital on August 02, 2016, 08:05:45 AM

Quote from: really? on August 02, 2016, 07:53:59 AM

Quote from: panjul07 on August 02, 2016, 07:19:28 AM

Getting worst today, just requested another withdrawal and choose priority fee (200bits) but sent with less than 5k satoshi fee. Confirmation Warning "The transaction fee is less than recommended."
You said it will be fixed last night or this morning, but it is not fixed yet. Cry

The amounts mentioned here are really small, but the point is that it is just plain old stealing.
It would be praiseworthy if MoneyPot would comment on this, and nog just saying it will be fixed.

We believed the issue to be fixed, but are adjusting it to work more properly.

We handle withdrawals ranging from 100 bits to 30,000,000 bits, so we need to find a proper balance for everything.

The transaction fees have risen from the halvening, making things more complicated, but we will keep attacking it until we have a solid solution in place.

edit; We have now changed the system to a default 200 bits fee, and a 300 bits priority fee. You will note a memo when you are about to make a withdrawal/send.

Oh come on, whats the matter with this thing. I have choosen the default 200 bits fee and yet you guys send with less than 5k satoshi. Literally you are stealing away 15k satoshis from my transaction. Whats so hard for you to use the old system? the previous system will send my transaction with 10k if I choose default and 20k for priority without any reducement at all

Yeah, it is kind of stealing. Imagine if there are hundreds withdrawal request per day, 15k satoshi x 100 = 0.015btc/day stolen from players. It should be not a hard thing to do for a proffesional site like moneypot but seems they do not consider it as an important thing.

We are not attempting to profit off of fees.

There are instances where we end up saving on the fee and there are instances where we end up paying more for the fee.

When the blockchain is backed up, we have had days when we spend over 0.08 just in overage fees.

The setup is for the dynamic fee to be used that will generate confirmations quickly. It may be less than what the user has paid. It might be more than what the user paid.

To my knowledge, the same system is used on Bustabit, Primedice, and other gaming sites.

Helix61be

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Quote from: DebitMe on August 12, 2016, 11:16:09 AM

Quote from: Helix61be on August 12, 2016, 10:59:42 AM

Quote from: DebitMe on August 12, 2016, 10:43:01 AM

Quote from: Helix61be on August 12, 2016, 10:06:03 AM

Quote from: DebitMe on August 11, 2016, 10:22:51 PM

Quote from: Helix61be on August 11, 2016, 10:07:35 PM

Quote from: DebitMe on August 11, 2016, 08:10:21 PM

Quote from: BBHex on August 11, 2016, 10:45:47 AM

Quote from: Layla Mckenzie on August 11, 2016, 10:08:18 AM

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume. I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.
Please scroll through dicesites.com and look at how spot on the calculations are in 2 years time.
Even moneypot got An expected value of 477btc but got a Profit of 697btc, and this is when we just had a big loss of almost 60 btc (went from 430 to 370)....

That is called short term variance. In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit. Its just math and you can't argue with that. 2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough. I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

In that case anything can be called short term in this fast paced industry wich Comes back to the fact that you can't predict it in such a short time frame..... Because the question was Profit in 6 months right.
Which makes it kinda look like you just want to make a theoretical math Point that can't be used for the questions People ask most of the time.

If you can't use the exact method to determine what your expected profit will be...what can you use?

Nothing if you don't want a calculation that needs years upon years and even with that time you still got all the variables

For anyone that want to know 1 month it turned 16,7% 2nd month it was 10,5%, 3rd month it was maybe 0-2%

DebitMe

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