Topic: 🌟🎲🌟 MoneyPot.com - page 56. (Read 119056 times)

Is MoneyPot working on an affiliate program at all?

Is this due to problems with MP? Or just moving on to other projects?

Just for public information:

I am no longer the Lead Developer/coder of Moneypot and have not been since late of July 2016. Reasons are personal but i am still in good terms with Moneypot team and is currently working again on my own app.

Having said this, please do direct all issues to Moneypot team and/or their new dev, CrazyCraig.

Thank you.
-uni

Any update on altcoin implementations?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.15790842
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.15791380

why increase the minimum transaction fee you will deduct on our withdrawal but still pay less than 10k sats on my transaction? not a big amount but isn't it like stealing? deducting 20k sats on our WD and you will only pay 4k sats?

The system has always been setup for dynamic fees with a fixed fee for the user.  I believe Ryan Havar explained the reasoning best earlier in the thread.  If you have further questions, I'd be happy to answer them in private (to keep the thread clean).

is this thread now instead of the slack channel? just asking because I was send to the slack channel with my questions.

why dont you invite him to the slack channel? maybe he will get there the answers he needs because you answered actually that you dont know the answers for his questions

1) pseudocode: if bet { progressiveJackpot += houseEdgeofBet*0.5*percentProfittoAllocate }
2) if houseEdge > 1% runLocal(); else sendtoMP();
3) Can't answer this one myself
4) Also can't answer. I believe as long as you're logged in and on the same app it will remain, but I'm not 100% sure on that.

NOTE:   Re-posting to moneypot thread to get more exposure...

Hello,

I appreciate any help/guidance from members in following area:

1.  How to implement progressive jackpot using moneypot API (just like bit-exo.com)
2.  How to raise house edge to more than 1% but pass on only 1% house edge to moneypot api?  Additional house edge will be used to fund jackpot and other freebies.
3.  How does max-subsidy parameter of bets endpoint of moneypot api work?
from moneypot api docs:
max_subsidy (optional, float) a value (in satoshis) of the most your app is willing to pay for this bet to be placed. This money is given to investors, from your app, when otherwise the bet would be too unattractive for investors to accept. We minimize the total subsidy given so his functions a pure limit. This defaults to 0, and is only settable in the confidential flow. It can also be set to a negative number, if you want the bet to be rejected unless you make a certain amount of profit.

4.  Can I take hash from moneypot api today and use it (or place a bet against) after two days or so?  Normally, what is validity period for such server seed hashes?

PS:  I know that the moneypot support/admin team is the best resource for my queries, and I am in contact with them and I am getting all the help and support they can provide.  This post is to widen my knowledge and get other perspective/view on the subject

Thank you in advance for any help/guidance you may provide.

Yeah, I think you should definitely do it. I'd probably make it monthly, as updating it every week will get exhausting and monthly will be smoother.


Variance. It's a bitch. No matter how much you understand how much of a bitch variance is, it'll always surprise you. (It's a bit like software estimates, even if you know they're always off they'll still always be off).

As an example, this is the profit from ~4 months of the site I run:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/spa/rmczv2tqcr196vz/o5m3b06g.png

Looks pretty stable, eh? Well, with the same amount of volume and absolutely no changes last year I had a **four** month period in which the site hadn't made any. At one point I started to seriously think someone had discovered the server seed and was subtly siphoning off all the profits, so the site neither made nor lost money. (but nah, was just variance and some aggressive loss chasers)


--

Also to add to that, the style of play by the whales on the site will make a massive difference. MP has been extremely lucky to have some whales who just seem to deposit and then grind the money away, and then repeat -- which is why it had some pretty steady reliable growth. But if your whales are loss chasers / martingalers, you'll notice a pattern more like one from betking:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/spa/rmczv2tqcr196vz/a6x747dr.png

Reverse martingalers (or people who like to gamble hard with their profits) will tend to create an inverse looking chart  (steady gains, then big unexpected drops) etc.

I was invested in the MP bankroll from late April until mid-May, when I withdrew to Bitfinex in order to short bitcoin around $680. (Due to luck more than anything, my coin was out of BFX at the time of hack - this post isn't about the BFX hack per se.) I have one suggestion to make, and one question to ask:

Suggestion A: MP needs an app or other function to allow investors & gamblers opportunity to hedge and/or leverage their btc. I wouldn't have withdrawn my btc at that time if I could have hedged/shorted within the MP domain. (I'm sharing this because almost certainly I was not the only MP user who had this experience.) When MP has a hedging function, maybe a CFD app, then MP will be significantly 'stickier' for users. If MP links up with Augur when it launches, that would be HUGE. Alternately I hope MP finds an app that has btc CFDs. Throw in some equity indices and commodities, and that would be over the top. It will require a different revenue/profit model (not 'provably fair'), but certainly something can be worked out? The poker site 'Bitlegit' wasn't provably fair, so it appears MP is ready to go that route.

Question B: In that ~2 month window roughly leading up to the DDOS attack and extended downtime the bankroll was booking profits on the order of 0.50% per day. I tracked my returns daily and on June 15 my daily CAGR (constant average growth rate) was running 0.56%. Yes, that is over 600% per annum. According to my hand-recorded stats, there was one 53-day stretch during which only 6 days saw a loss.

Since returning to operations following the DDOS bankroll returns have been decidedly negative. I haven't been keeping exact figures but we can see that investor profits have fallen from about 434 btc in mid-July to a current 368 btc.

Are the DDOS attack and the subsequent operating recovery related in some way to the dramatic fall in bankroll returns? Have there been any changes since the DDOS/server migration that would alter expected bankroll returns?

Will look into it right away.  I believe it's an issue with our cold deposits.

edit; It has now been pushed through.

People also need to take into consideration divestment/investment betting as well. There are so many variables. One thing I was planning to do was run a weekly analysis on return, but decided it may not have much use since the past is no determinant of the future so the data, while it's good for the existing period, has no real value going forward. That said, if people do feel it would have value, I can definitely do that moving forward and report weekly or monthly or whatever.

It used to be, but it's now 70% (50% for app, 20% for MP)


Fair enough. What I would do is to try estimate the EV of the investment as a whole (which is a total crap shoot that involves pulling numbers from your ass for things like counter-party risk) and then use that to determine how much I should risk in the investment itself (which itself uses the kelly <3). But lets say I guestimated the total EV of investing in MP at 1 BTC for the year, I would never actually personally "expect" to make that because there's so many variables (I could easily lose the entire investment, or make double it)

I was assuming that the HE was 0.5% after all the commissions are paid for.

My understanding is (this may be incorrect), that MP will take 1/2 of the HE between their own commission and the app owner commission, and 1% HE seems to be pretty standard to me.


There is also the possibility that the owner of the casino is able to get betting volume growth to be greater then bankroll volume to be greater then bankroll growth, which would have the opposite effect as the above. IDK if there are any reliable stats/theories regarding what to expect over the long run about bankroll growth verses betting growth.
 
I would disagree with this. A bankroll investor will need to risk the possibility that a casino operator will run away will the coins in the bankroll, that the seeds will somehow leak, allowing someone to cheat, and drain ~the entire bankroll, that the coins are otherwise stolen from the casino and the operator cannot afford to cover the cost of the theft, among other possible risks. In order to measure how appropriate it is to take these risks, a potential bankroll investor will need to know how much they should expect to earn by taking these risks.

There are other investments that a potential bankroll investor can make (eg investing in a company, lending for margin loans on an exchange, investing in the stock market), and an investor should invest his money in what he believes have the best risk/reward proposition.

Nope. It might be maths, but it's wrong. Over a long or infinite period of time, MP investors are *not* guaranteed to be an expected profit.

Case to consider: Imagine a casino that has a 1% house edge, but risks 99.99% of it's bankroll each bet. Over an long enough period of time, how much money do you think the casino will have?  (Answer: It's bankroll is always going to keep getting wiped out to near zero and despite infinite amount of EV the house will never make money).



I believe that is a fallacy itself (as can seen by this thread). It only holds under a set of preconditions that MP doesn't currently satisfy.



Isn't this still off by 3.33x?

36500 bitcoin gets wagered @ 0.5% HE, then investors have to pay the app a fixed 91.25 BTC, and a have to pay a fixed 36.5 BTC to MP itself. So that leaves investors with 54.75 BTC in EV but all the variance of fielding the bets.



On top of variance, there's also some other conflating factors: both other investors (you should probably expect to get diluted over time, unless something goes really wrong), and players (not every EV is created equal. How someone bet *does* impact your expected final bankroll).
 

tldr;  Don't try to predict how much you'll make  

Because sometimes 200 bits wouldn't be enough of a fee to get quick confirmations.  The miner's fee fluctuates.  Having a fixed amount could lead to problems during a backed up blockchain.

CrazyCraig's explanation is probably the best one.

Btw, We are adding a low priority 50 bits fee for those wanting to do smaller transactions with less urgency.

Suppose the bankroll is 100 and the daily betting volume is 100. Over a 365 day year, 36,500 will be gambled and with a 0.5% HE 182.5 will be won by the bankroll. This is a 182.5% return on the bankroll.

100 * 1.825 is 182.5. 182.5 divided by the 100 bankroll is 1.825 which expressed as a percentage is 182.5%.

All of the above assumes 100% "luck", no variance, and earnings being immidiatly withdrawn.

My statement might have been poorly worded.

And then the bankroll More then doubles in a few months and the ammount waggered goes down.
I get the preddiction but i think it's just An average that's all