Monkeys: Don't do trend analysis! (with poll) - page 2.

mu_enrico

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Quote from: Philipma1957cellphone on August 25, 2020, 12:01:09 AM

Yes but only about 1 second in advance.

Why one second?

Quote from: Coyster on August 25, 2020, 02:19:02 AM

Random theories are just more or less lucky guesses, I'd rather be researching into an asset I want to invest in, be it stocks or cryptocurrency, to get an understanding of the market and even if not for the immediate profits, but so I'll be productive in that field in the long term. That being said, true random guesses could give you profits some time, but if you learn all there is about an investment market, you can always make profits for a lifetime.

What makes you different than professional analysts whose beaten by darts?

Quote from: teosanru on August 25, 2020, 03:22:40 AM

it says you cannot predict it using past data and two things are different. It says one cannot outperform the market without assuming "additional risk" this risk is called un systematic often referred to as Beta. Trader doesn't only predicts the direction of the market but along with that ascertains the risk of that trade and reward which he is willing to take.

And how do we calculate individual stock's beta?

Quote from: fiulpro on August 25, 2020, 03:26:29 AM

Bur here the theory that you have suggested is something that i have serious doubts on, since this is very weird and twisted
...
One experiment showing results opposite to the one the theory can kill the theory instantly , even if it has years of backing up and data.

Lol weird and twisted?! Read this paper's conclusion mate Grin

bitbollo

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the same strategies I think can't work for crypto currencies, for sure not in short time (1-2 years)
look on the hype of 2017-2018.
Most of these project literally collapsed of 80-90%.
I think no one coins launched on that period has been able to growth in value vs ICO price.
This is not related to "scam" of projects but just to hyper inflation that has pumped the value of "everything" with a massive growth.

fiulpro

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Reading your article reminded me of the movie :
Wolf of the wall street

The person there said how: No One can predict what is going to happen to the stocks , literally no one. (Therefore all these predictions were a sham)

I do understand that there are certain factors that can change the way price changes like:

Bitcoins being banned by some country
Mining farms being seized

Etc...

These numerous news can help us predict the bitcoin movement to an extent because its obvious , therefore i do believe that we can do that to an extent for sure . But predicting it point to point takes a lot of time and effort ( even luck) therefore is dissolute for longer term.

Bur here the theory that you have suggested is something that i have serious doubts on, since this is very weird and twisted , I do believe that this Random walk theory might be applicable in some things , but for sure not here , plus i don't think Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies can be predicted like this.

You should know on thing about scientific experiments:
One experiment showing results opposite to the one the theory can kill the theory instantly , even if it has years of backing up and data.

teosanru

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Yeah this is true. In almost every technical Analysis class you would have attended this is the day 1 lesson that you get. That there are some people who feel that market is a random walk theory. But you know the hypothesis of random walk theory? It doesn't says market moves randomly it says you cannot predict it using past data and two things are different. It says one cannot outperform the market without assuming "additional risk" this risk is called un systematic often referred to as Beta. Trader doesn't only predicts the direction of the market but along with that ascertains the risk of that trade and reward which he is willing to take. It's this difference of risk and return hypothesis which helps a person make money. Moreover there is this one study which you are talking about alternatively there are hundreds of studies which say markets are predictable. So just calculate accordingly.

Coyster

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I would not trust the random walk theory with my money, nor with a risky investment like Bitcoin (you need to know when it's good time to invest). I'd give a good example, the pattern Bitcoin price usual takes after a halving is a prediction with a premise somewhat, a shrewd investor will rather follow that path, accumulating before the halving and waiting for the next 6-12 months to see if the pattern repeats itself, it very well could/could not, but what I know is it's an Investment that's based on a pattern that has been experienced before, chances are higher of it pulling through.

Random theories are just more or less lucky guesses, I'd rather be researching into an asset I want to invest in, be it stocks or cryptocurrency, to get an understanding of the market and even if not for the immediate profits, but so I'll be productive in that field in the long term. That being said, true random guesses could give you profits some time, but if you learn all there is about an investment market, you can always make profits for a lifetime.

leyton11

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I already know this kind of theory but it's only for gamblers, it's not for investors. no one would spend a lot of money betting on something we never knew and never analyzed. In investing, nothing is certain, but analysis helps us to reduce our risk and sometimes pick a very good stock. Anyway, we should prepare for any deal, luck does not happen to us forever.

Philipma1957cellphone

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Yes we can predict price.

Can we do it with any degree of accuracy?

Yes but only about 1 second in advance.

jackg

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https://bit.ly/387FXHi lightning theory

If you've watched a chart for long enough you'll know where it's going next. TA for Hull and bear flags and repeat patterns also make it possible to have a pretty clear idea.

Also depending on how they traded is going to change things. If it was equities, while in a bull market, most are going to follow the trend.. If you just keep longing at 3x leverage for example, even in crashes you won't lose anything...

mu_enrico

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Quote from: Eureka_07 on August 19, 2020, 08:20:30 PM

but these data can help us make better predictions.
Predictions backed up by relevant data are way better than predictions without any basis. hmmmm

Topic: Monkeys: Don't do trend analysis! (with poll) - page 2. (Read 325 times)