Topic: MOORE: Mining Bond Beating the Moore's Law (Collecting Shareholder Data) - page 7. (Read 19165 times)

NO.LESS

Seriously, though, I'm ready for this liquid helium plan...

Sure, thanks. Just stay tuned for the secret plan!

I wish we could short AMD on the stock exchange 

When the ASIC appears it will definitely have some effect on the market. I expect maximum 4x difficulty increases for awhile after they appear. Really depends if they dribble the ASIC onto the market or have mass production.

Glad to see you are on top of the situation and keeping us updated.

Thanks. Anyway, my fancy freezing fluid is for much much larger objects than several pieces of hardware.

They don't

I don't know if normal silicon chips could work at the extremely low temperature in liquid helium. Some professionals give me a science popularization please.

However, the liquid helium is not for my hardware, but something else.

Just be careful not to blow your hardware

Great News

Recently, many people are concerned with the sudden drop of mining bond prices. For those who worry that our 0.89% week growth is not enough to neutralize the pressure of BTC price rallying and the dramatic improvement of hardware, we are planning to launch a secret plan for you. The code name is Liquid Helium.

The details are to be announced.

Sub

Edit: Big fan of this so far.

3rd Payment

Calculation time: June 13, 04:18:48 forum time

Number of difficulty change: 1
Number of block reward change: 0

Time interval:
  Starting from: June 6, 05:45:13
  Ending at: June 7, 19:51:04
  Total time: 137151s
  Difficulty: 1,591,074.96

  Starting from: June 7, 19:51:04
  Ending at: June 13, 04:18:48
  Total time: 462464s
  Difficulty: 1,583,177.85

Hashrate of this week: 1.01788MH/s

coupon/share = (1.01788*10^6)/(2^32)*(137151*50/1591074.96+462464*50/1583177.85)=0.0044829

Number of Shares: 6109

Total Payment: 27.3860361

I enjoyed your explanation of how you view the chinese government. Lets hope they dont catch on to bitcoin untill its too late.

Update

The main thread has been slightly cleaned up. I also added a section of payment history.

Ngzhang released some news of Lancelot: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.942822. The expected date of first-batch releasing remains unchanged, because the present small bugs were already taken into consideration when he first estimated the date. I could take advantage of the short delivering time and low shipping fee by being in the same country as his. I'm looking forward to my smooth expansion.

2nd Payment

Calculation time: June 6, 05:45:13 forum time

Number of difficulty change: 0
Number of block reward change: 0

Time interval:
  Starting from: May 30, 05:07:33
  Ending at: June 6, 05:45:13
  Total time: 607060s
  Difficulty: 1,591,074.96

Hashrate of this week: 1.0089MH/s

coupon/share = (1.0089*10^6)/(2^32)*(607060*50/1591074.96)=0.0044813

Number of Shares: 5916

Total Payment: 26.5113708

That's OK. And the concern of me being in China is also very reasonable. I will try to explain it.

1. From the legislation point of view, the Chinese government doesn't ban virtual currencies and commodities, but they only allow a single-sided circulation. For example, a game company can sell their virtual currencies for fiat, but players could not redeem them back as fiat again. This means that things like Bitcoin exchanges are in a illegal, or at best, grey area, in China. Bitcoin itself is fine, so is Bitcoin mining.

2. In the reality, legislation and laws in China are not as respected as in western countries. Orders and policies from the executive administrations matter more. Laws could be easily changed, and in most of the time, the government does not need legislation support to do evil things. But consider that the Chinese government is as slow and bloated as other fellow post-totalitarian ones in history, brand new inventions like Bitcoin is too tiny, too agile, and too beyond-of-its-imagination for it to identify. It has got too many other "bigger" and "more serious" problems to worry about.

3. In China, there are many things that are both illegal in principle and thriving in practice. Pornography, prostitution and gambling are all good examples. In fact, if you strictly follow all the laws and regulations, you could virtually do nothing at all. Almost all companies and enterprises evade taxes, or they can not survive for even a single day. Almost all stores and restaurants bribe to government officers, or they could never pass the regulation requirements, which are impossible to meet in the first place, to get their business licenses. The bottom line is that "don't make the government feel that you are dangerous for them" and "don't shout too loud to make other people believe you are beyond their regulations".

4. It is indeed possible that Bitcoin finally catches its eyes, and it finally decides that Bitcoin is a threat to it. But in my opinion it wouldn't be soon, and the possibility will not be significant larger than EU or US doing it.

5. Mining is not done publicly on the streets, and the electricity use is also limited. In China electricity costs about 0.1$/kWh, which is not much higher than in the US. If we could luckily expand to 1000GH or more, the mining space and electricity consumption might attract the attention of the local government. But that's quite far away, and could be avoided by scatter the Rigs into different places or even cities.

As a Chinese, I hope I didn't fail too much in describing how things work in China, and I hope the explanations above could answer your question.

Friedcat: I am sorry for my misunderstanding of your bond.

From a long term point of view, I am also worrying some risks in China. As you plan to install more miners, in China, I am wondering how will some governments or departments treat the equipment and electricity.

I am sorry that I misunderstood the contract. MOORE is a dynamic bond, which recalculates the base share.

At the moment, I am puzzled that how MOORE outperform the average profit from the mining, ~50 BTC per 10 minutes, in the long-term.

0.3 BTC per share for MOORE would be a devastating discount that makes me a net loss at all time. It means that I have to support 1MH/s from the very beginning, as other mining bond issuers do, and guarantee the 0.89% per week growth as an extra obligation, with only 0.3 BTC.

Only if I could get BFL Mini Rigs or ASIC miners today, and have free access to electricity, I might be able to make a little profits. But in this impossibly optimistic scenario, issuing normal bonds with 0.2BTC/MH or even 0.18 BTC/MH would also be profitable. But as far as I know, 0.2BTC/MH normal mining bonds are not that common in the market. Gigavps did this before, but the market pushed the price to nearly 0.3BTC/MH almost immediately after that.

I'm not sure if I get you correctly, but other mining bonds don't recalculate with higher hash rate each week, they stay at the same hash rate. Bitcoin itself has the so called "difficulty" that evens out any effort to mine more coins just by adding more/faster hardware to the cluster. On average in total there will be ~50 BTC per 10 minutes until December, no matter if the global hash rate triples until then or halves.

Why would you not pay a premium for a bond that grows automatically by 0.89% (compounded!) each week?

MOORE is a formula bond, which is definitely win all other mining bonds for the issuer. I am wondering whether my following reasoning is right,

The great point is the IPO price, say 0.45 BTC or 0.5 BTC per share, which is about 1.5 times of the normal mining price.

So the issuer can get ~1.5X "hardware", or the simplest way is just to invest other normal mining bonds in GLBSE market to get the normal coupons, which is ~ 1.5X NORMAL coupons for the issued shares.

But the return is a "MOORE" formula, which is less than the NORMAL coupons in a large periods of more than one year, so the issuer can profit more than 0.5X NORMAL coupons.

The first cross point is the "MOORE" return equal to NORMAL return at the time frame more than 80 weeks according to the plots in this thread.

The second cross point is the "MOORE" return equal to ~1.5X NORMAL return, which is apparently at the time frame more than 2 years.

And the last point is from the profit during the above periods of more than 2 years. The profit during that period can also compensate the steeper "MOORE" return in a longer periods, and the profit can also get a normal profit, say the interest. So the issuer may have not any risk for this formula bond.

I didn't reason the details of the difficulty change, BITCOIN changes from 50 to 25 and all other factors. The reasoning is only from an intuitive viewpoint of a linear function that more Bitcoins can be mined if there are more mining power at any situation.

So now I will buy some shares if the price is 0.3 BTC per share as the usual mining bonds.