[MPEx] S.BBET Monthly Statements | Bitcointalksearch.org

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

October results:

*****************
Operational results
*****************

Received 110 new propositions, of which accepted 44ⁱ, rejected 66. Total bets in worth 354.89123149 BTC.ⁱⁱ

Revenue : 3.85394132 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 2.34817188 BTCⁱⁱⁱ
fees from refunds: 0.04168410 BTC
advertising : 0 BTC
house bets won : 1.46408534^iv
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.0 BTC^v

Expenditure : 6.33763872 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.04867773 BTC^vi
house bets made : 4.40000000 BTC
rectification charge : 1.88896099 BTC

Profit : −2.4836974 BTC which will be carried over as a charge on the next month’s statement.

*****************
Miscellaneous
*****************

We now have stats for Bitbet, wherein you paste your address and a history pops out. For your convenience, the site’s performance (these are the bets made automatically by BitBet on all new bets accepted). Tl;dr : -0.01019974 BTC over 38.70500000 BTC in 581 bets.

———

i. Much better success rate!

ii. Graphs :

iii. 234.81705021 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iv. 2.50000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

v. Once the instruments of punishment are laid bare on the table, learning becomes not only possible but quite swift.

vi. Seems it’s stabilized here.

Atruk

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

http://bitbet.us/bet/545/no-such-labs-higher-market-cap-than-s-mg/

This one seems to have come with an, albeit small, paid wager.

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

Quote from: ?? on ??

So, half of it is mine. Shocked

Given BitBet's policy of insta-approving shit bets and rejecting much better ones slowly, I won't be creating new bets nor promoting them.

The rejection was relaxed a little recently, as it was perhaps excessive. Maybe that's what you're seeing?

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

September results:

*****************
Operational results
*****************

Received 111 new propositions, of which accepted 16, rejected 95. Total bets in worth 236.15664585 BTC.ⁱ

Revenue : 5.60240124 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 3.36095198 BTCⁱⁱ
fees from refunds: 0.00350000 BTC
advertising : 0 BTC
house bets won : 2.23794926ⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.061 BTC

Expenditure : 1.74774867 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.04774867 BTC^iv
house bets made : 1.70000000 BTC

Profit : 3.85465257 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

*****************
Miscellaneous
*****************

Well at least BitBet did better than BTCtalk and Silk Road this month. I blame the Somalian.

Update : As pointed out by the astute FabianB, dividends actually paid for the month of August were in excess of the value actually owed. As a result the next month will carry a 1.88896099 BTC charge to compensate.

———

i. Graphs :

ii. 336.09519837 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 2.90000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

iv. Tenfold increase month over month. Keep it coming!

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

August Results:

*****************
Operational results
*****************

Received 106 new propositions, of which accepted 29, rejected 77. Total bets in worth 470.61293880 BTC.ⁱ

Revenue : 5.51387082 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 3.07961846 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 2 BTC
house bets won : 0.43225236ⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.002 BTC

Expenditure : 2.81535512 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.01535512 BTC^iv
house bets made : 2.80000000 BTC

Profit : 2.69851570 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

*****************
Miscellaneous
*****************

Quote

I bet you next month’s income will surpass this month’s income.

Total bets in worth 470.61293880 BTC this month vs total bets in worth 220.67110380 BTC last month. I guess I win. Revenue : 5.51387082 BTC this month vs Revenue : 7.77441249 BTC, last month. I guess I lose. The bet was ambiguous and therefore a scam!

See you all next month, except with more of everything.

———

i. Graphs :

ii. 385.39947767 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 2.51000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

iv. Half last month’s. Apparently people really don’t want to make Bitcoin.

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

July Results:

*****************
Operational results
*****************

Received 72 new propositions, of which accepted 19, rejected 53. Total bets in worth 220.67110380 BTC.ⁱ

Revenue : 7.77441249 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 3.85399584 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 2 BTC
house bets won : 1.84242184ⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.07799481 BTC

Expenditure : 2.02110795 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.00110795 BTC^iv
house bets made : 2.02000000 BTC

Profit : 5.75330454 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

*****************
Miscellaneous
*****************

I bet you next month’s income will surpass this month’s income.

i. Graphs :

ii. 385.39947767 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 2.51000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

iv. Half last month’s. Apparently people really don’t want to make Bitcoin.

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

June Results:

*****************
Operational results
*****************

Received 62 new propositions, of which accepted 19, rejected 42. Total bets in worth 336.95451175 BTC.ⁱ

Revenue : 10.70484821 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 4.11394611 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 3.75 BTC
house bets won : 2.84090210ⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.000009 BTC^iv

Expenditure : 1.90280655 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.00280655 BTC^v
house bets made : 1.90000000 BTC

Profit : 8.80204166 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

*****************
Miscellaneous
*****************

Need moar people proposing bets, need moar referrers, need moar, moar MOAR!

———

i. Graphs :

ii. 411.39448879 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 3.53000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

iv. Zero next month ?

v. Wow, low.

Peter Lambert

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Any comment on whether any money will be spent on advertising?

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

Quote from: Peter Lambert on June 06, 2013, 08:16:50 AM

How much do people get for submitting bet proposals? Maybe increasing that would encourage a higher number of proposed bets? Hmm, maybe I should go submit some stuff ...

Spending a bit of money on advertising might be a good idea too.

All submitted bets get a pool of no less than 0.1 BTC split between yes and no, courtesy of BitBet. The submitter gets the lower of these. So basically if the longshot wins the submitter makes w/e based on that, statistically should come out to about five bux per submitted bet which is obscenely generous already.

Peter Lambert

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: MPOE-PR on June 05, 2013, 08:49:27 PM

i. This is quite awful. One fifth of last month’s proposition volume, with acceptance rate going from one third to one quarter. People, wake up! There is exactly one way to make BTC on the strength of your wits rather than on the strength of your capital (be it mining gear or whatever). This is it.

How much do people get for submitting bet proposals? Maybe increasing that would encourage a higher number of proposed bets? Hmm, maybe I should go submit some stuff ...

Spending a bit of money on advertising might be a good idea too.

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

May results:

*****************
Operational results
*****************

Received 68 new propositions, of which accepted 16 worth 422.56553095 BTC, rejected 52ⁱ.

Revenue : 6.70437137 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 3.74798271 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 0.1 BTC
house bets won : 2.85634306ⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.0000456 BTC^iv

Expenditure : 1.62041977 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.02041977 BTC
house bets made : 1.60000000 BTC

Profit : 5.0839516 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

*****************
Miscellaneous
*****************

———

i. This is quite awful. One fifth of last month’s proposition volume, with acceptance rate going from one third to one quarter. People, wake up! There is exactly one way to make BTC on the strength of your wits rather than on the strength of your capital (be it mining gear or whatever). This is it.

Graphs :

ii. 374.79813025 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 4.03000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

iv. Nice to see people are learning. Well done.

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

April results:

*****************
Operational results
*****************

Received 306 new propositions, of which accepted 99 worth 1`427.12033496 BTC, rejected 207i.

Revenue : 52.41062758 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 18.89598891 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 3 BTC
house bets won : 4.70571706 BTCⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 25.80892161 BTC

Expenditure : 10.96703057 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.65703057 BTC
house bets made : 10.31000000 BTC

Profit : 41.44359701 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

*****************
Miscellaneous
*****************

April, slightly slower than March. See you all next month, in the Big Rock Candy Mountains.

———

i. Up 214%, 33%, down 15%, up 300% respectively. Significant increase in propositions (especially unacceptable ones), consistent with BitBet reinforcing its market dominant position. Slight slowdown of new bets coming in. My guess would be that this is due to loads of BTC being redirected to speculative use this month. Graphs :

ii. 1,889.59852844 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 7.34000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month, putting the house’s 4.70571706 BTC above even.

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

Quote from: Deprived on April 21, 2013, 01:55:18 PM

It was totally different.

Bets were treated as contracts - with one created whenever a buyer and seller agreed on a price for it via the market.

If you've ever used Betfair for sports betting then it was far more like that - whilst Bitbet is more like a Tote type system.

On intrade if we agreed (via bidding on the open market) that a proposition was 3 times more likely to occur than not occur then the one backing that it would occur would pay $7.50 and the one saying that it would NOT occur would pay $2.50 - giving a total value to the contract of $10 paid to the winner when the bet was resolved.

Where you had multiple contracts on linked events (for example bets for and against different candidates in an election) then your total exposure was calculated and funds reserved to cover the maximum possible loss you could incur.

All contracts could be freely traded - with the market price reflecting overall sentiment about the shifting likelihood of the various results.

It's not that different once you realize the intrade-style market will only exist if MMd, in which case it all boils down to the exact same thing.

We actually have a bet pool at the office as to how long it'll take the community for some clever entrepreneur to figure out the math behind this homology and actually release a BitBet backed intrade implementation (yes, it is spelled out in the linked comment but reading is hard etc).

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: Peter Lambert on April 21, 2013, 12:27:46 PM

Quote from: MPOE-PR on April 21, 2013, 11:41:31 AM

Quote from: Peter Lambert on April 17, 2013, 02:29:16 PM

Maybe there would be a way to do both, have the betting as it is now and add on a second set of bets with a more InTrade like functionality? Sounds like there is a sudden opening in internet real estate that is just begging to be filled by a bitcoin company.

The idea is that entrepreneurial individuals provide that service on the BitBet infrastructure. It's easy enough to do and from what you're saying profitable.

Actually, I never used intrade. Could anybody describe how it is different than the way bitbet works?

It was totally different.

Bets were treated as contracts - with one created whenever a buyer and seller agreed on a price for it via the market.

If you've ever used Betfair for sports betting then it was far more like that - whilst Bitbet is more like a Tote type system.

On intrade if we agreed (via bidding on the open market) that a proposition was 3 times more likely to occur than not occur then the one backing that it would occur would pay $7.50 and the one saying that it would NOT occur would pay $2.50 - giving a total value to the contract of $10 paid to the winner when the bet was resolved.

Where you had multiple contracts on linked events (for example bets for and against different candidates in an election) then your total exposure was calculated and funds reserved to cover the maximum possible loss you could incur.

All contracts could be freely traded - with the market price reflecting overall sentiment about the shifting likelihood of the various results.

dance4x

full member

Activity: 143

Merit: 100

Quote from: Peter Lambert on April 21, 2013, 12:27:46 PM

Quote from: MPOE-PR on April 21, 2013, 11:41:31 AM

Quote from: Peter Lambert on April 17, 2013, 02:29:16 PM

Maybe there would be a way to do both, have the betting as it is now and add on a second set of bets with a more InTrade like functionality? Sounds like there is a sudden opening in internet real estate that is just begging to be filled by a bitcoin company.

The idea is that entrepreneurial individuals provide that service on the BitBet infrastructure. It's easy enough to do and from what you're saying profitable.

Actually, I never used intrade. Could anybody describe how it is different than the way bitbet works?

Now that I think about it, in trade may have worked in the same way. The only difference was that you could buy and sell bets after they were placed. So if the odds on your bet turning put to be a winner actually happened, you could sell your position on that bet to someone else before the action actually took place.

Peter Lambert

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: MPOE-PR on April 21, 2013, 11:41:31 AM

Quote from: Peter Lambert on April 17, 2013, 02:29:16 PM

Maybe there would be a way to do both, have the betting as it is now and add on a second set of bets with a more InTrade like functionality? Sounds like there is a sudden opening in internet real estate that is just begging to be filled by a bitcoin company.

The idea is that entrepreneurial individuals provide that service on the BitBet infrastructure. It's easy enough to do and from what you're saying profitable.

Actually, I never used intrade. Could anybody describe how it is different than the way bitbet works?

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

Quote from: Peter Lambert on April 17, 2013, 12:20:06 PM

But you should be able to at least have some sort of calculator which calculates how much you would win if you bet X btc now. There is a formula which the website uses, put it into a javascript or something and let the computer figure this out. There is no reason for people to have to guess how things are calculated and try to do such complicated math in their head. Put a big disclaimer that actual results could be changed by people betting in the future and you should be okay.

This might actually be a good idea!

Quote from: Peter Lambert on April 17, 2013, 02:29:16 PM

Maybe there would be a way to do both, have the betting as it is now and add on a second set of bets with a more InTrade like functionality? Sounds like there is a sudden opening in internet real estate that is just begging to be filled by a bitcoin company.

The idea is that entrepreneurial individuals provide that service on the BitBet infrastructure. It's easy enough to do and from what you're saying profitable.

rini17

sr. member

Activity: 340

Merit: 250

GO http://bitcointa.lk !!! My new nick: jurov

Quote from: Peter Lambert on April 18, 2013, 08:05:21 AM

Quote from: rini17 on April 18, 2013, 06:03:14 AM

Quote from: dance4x on April 17, 2013, 12:36:11 PM

^Exactly. The formula is even laid out in the FAQ page.

But as I'm trying to explain, it depends on later bets.. so if you just blindly calculate the win at time of your bet and base your decision on it, you can mislead yourself.

But that is what everybody is doing right now. When I go look at a bet, I of course have no way to measure what people will bet in the future, but I can make some sort of estimate on "If I bet X now and I win, I will get back Y". Since the formula is complicated, it makes it hard to figure out what Y would be, but before placing any bet I at least try to estimate Y. It would just be so much easier if there was a simple calculator on the site which would do that calculation for me, so I can decide if I want to make the bet or not. I know it is just an estimation that would be changed by any future bets, but it would be a better estimation than what I am doing in my head.

That does not mean the site owner must support this. My own experience (from listing CoinBr assets on BitFunder) shown that people just don't read thoroughly and latch on to first number that looks like something they need. Then when they don't get expected result they scream I'm misleading them. So I added more ugly disclaimers and visually distinguished examples...and advise against adding such cruft to bitbet, having no such info and users must research first is better.

Peter Lambert

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: rini17 on April 18, 2013, 06:03:14 AM

Quote from: dance4x on April 17, 2013, 12:36:11 PM

^Exactly. The formula is even laid out in the FAQ page.

But as I'm trying to explain, it depends on later bets.. so if you just blindly calculate the win at time of your bet and base your decision on it, you can mislead yourself.

But that is what everybody is doing right now. When I go look at a bet, I of course have no way to measure what people will bet in the future, but I can make some sort of estimate on "If I bet X now and I win, I will get back Y". Since the formula is complicated, it makes it hard to figure out what Y would be, but before placing any bet I at least try to estimate Y. It would just be so much easier if there was a simple calculator on the site which would do that calculation for me, so I can decide if I want to make the bet or not. I know it is just an estimation that would be changed by any future bets, but it would be a better estimation than what I am doing in my head.

dance4x

full member

Activity: 143

Merit: 100

Quote from: rini17 on April 18, 2013, 06:03:14 AM

Quote from: dance4x on April 17, 2013, 12:36:11 PM

^Exactly. The formula is even laid out in the FAQ page.

But as I'm trying to explain, it depends on later bets.. so if you just blindly calculate the win at time of your bet and base your decision on it, you can mislead yourself.

I see what you are saying. I guess I am just pointing out that most people would probably rather use a system where they know what the possible return on their bet is going to be when the bet is placed. For bitbet, this would mean overhauling the entire bet system. This could just be my own wrong opinion, but I'd like to see if others agree.

Topic: [MPEx] S.BBET Monthly Statements (Read 4551 times)