^Exactly. The formula is even laid out in the FAQ page.
But as I'm trying to explain, it depends on later bets.. so if you just blindly calculate the win at time of your bet and base your decision on it, you can mislead yourself. 
Topic: [MPEx] S.BBET Monthly Statements - page 2. (Read 4534 times)
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
^Exactly. The formula is even laid out in the FAQ page.
Having pointed this out, I feel like bitbet.us would eventually lose out to a site that works as an exchange between bettors instead of this current system. I believe this is how InTrade worked before it was shut down. I think most bettors like the idea of knowing how much they can win from their bet when the bet is placed.
Having pointed this out, I feel like bitbet.us would eventually lose out to a site that works as an exchange between bettors instead of this current system. I believe this is how InTrade worked before it was shut down. I think most bettors like the idea of knowing how much they can win from their bet when the bet is placed.
InTrade was shut down, what? Wow, didn't see that coming. From http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21576148-flagship-prediction-market-faces-insolvency-bet-lynched:
Quote
" It turned out that the firm had followed in the footsteps of MF Global, a derivatives broker, and Worldspreads, a spread-betting outfit, which both collapsed in 2012 after committing the cardinal sin of dipping into their clients’ accounts.
Intrade’s fall from grace is likely to discourage American participants from sending money to offshore firms. In the past the CFTC has rejected requests from companies under its jurisdiction to offer non-financial contracts."
Intrade’s fall from grace is likely to discourage American participants from sending money to offshore firms. In the past the CFTC has rejected requests from companies under its jurisdiction to offer non-financial contracts."
Maybe there would be a way to do both, have the betting as it is now and add on a second set of bets with a more InTrade like functionality? Sounds like there is a sudden opening in internet real estate that is just begging to be filled by a bitcoin company.
^Exactly. The formula is even laid out in the FAQ page.
Having pointed this out, I feel like bitbet.us would eventually lose out to a site that works as an exchange between bettors instead of this current system. I believe this is how InTrade worked before it was shut down. I think most bettors like the idea of knowing how much they can win from their bet when the bet is placed.
Having pointed this out, I feel like bitbet.us would eventually lose out to a site that works as an exchange between bettors instead of this current system. I believe this is how InTrade worked before it was shut down. I think most bettors like the idea of knowing how much they can win from their bet when the bet is placed.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
Have there been any discussions on making the bet formula a bit simpler? Perhaps showing Decimal or American odds instead of the current weight system. I feel like people would be more likely to place a bet if it was easy to understand their possible winnings. It would also be nice if the possible outcome of the bet was displayed on the page where you type in your bitcoin address. For example, if the odds were 50/50 and you placed a 1btc bet it would say something about how you get 2 btc if you win the bet. This kind of thing seems to be readily available on most of the sports gambling websites I have used in the past, and it is always a welcomed feature.
It is not possible to calculate possible win in advance, because the odds are changing every time a new bet is made - 50/50 bet can change to 10/90 when someone bets large sum on one side. To simplify it, first without considering weights, if that large bet was on your side and you win, you'll get only 1.1btc. If that bet was on opposite(losing) side, you'll get 9btc. When you add the weights into consideration, if you bet early, later bets influence your expected return less and less as time passes. That's the beauty of it.
But you should be able to at least have some sort of calculator which calculates how much you would win if you bet X btc now. There is a formula which the website uses, put it into a javascript or something and let the computer figure this out. There is no reason for people to have to guess how things are calculated and try to do such complicated math in their head. Put a big disclaimer that actual results could be changed by people betting in the future and you should be okay.
Have there been any discussions on making the bet formula a bit simpler? Perhaps showing Decimal or American odds instead of the current weight system. I feel like people would be more likely to place a bet if it was easy to understand their possible winnings. It would also be nice if the possible outcome of the bet was displayed on the page where you type in your bitcoin address. For example, if the odds were 50/50 and you placed a 1btc bet it would say something about how you get 2 btc if you win the bet. This kind of thing seems to be readily available on most of the sports gambling websites I have used in the past, and it is always a welcomed feature.
It is not possible to calculate possible win in advance, because the odds are changing every time a new bet is made - 50/50 bet can change to 10/90 when someone bets large sum on one side. To simplify it, first without considering weights, if that large bet was on your side and you win, you'll get only 1.1btc. If that bet was on opposite(losing) side, you'll get 9btc. When you add the weights into consideration, if you bet early, later bets influence your expected return less and less as time passes. That's the beauty of it.
Have there been any discussions on making the bet formula a bit simpler? Perhaps showing Decimal or American odds instead of the current weight system. I feel like people would be more likely to place a bet if it was easy to understand their possible winnings. It would also be nice if the possible outcome of the bet was displayed on the page where you type in your bitcoin address. For example, if the odds were 50/50 and you placed a 1btc bet it would say something about how you get 2 btc if you win the bet. This kind of thing seems to be readily available on most of the sports gambling websites I have used in the past, and it is always a welcomed feature.
Also, what's up with the downtime in the past two days, every morning I try to got to bitbet, and it's down.
There was a scheduled downtime yesterday to take care of some server updates - unfortunately it took much longer than expected and we are still working on some unexpected problems that arisen. Another short downtime is possible, should be back to smooth sailing afterwards.
Also, what's up with the downtime in the past two days, every morning I try to got to bitbet, and it's down.
Is there anywhere to compare the volume of bitbet and betsofbitcoin?
Not really. BitBet publishes the totals and is also fully blockchained and so transparent. Betsofbitco.in other than being run by a very questionable character is also very opaque (funny how that works).
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
Yes the house bet a great feature, this was one of the reasons that made me move from betsofbitco.in to bitbet (fast resolution was the other reason).
But as a shareholder of s.bbet, I feel the house take percentage is a bit low. Compare with betsofbitco.in's 5% house take, I feel you are leaving money on the table. I think it is in the interest of the shareholders to gradually increase the percentage to at least 2% or more.
But as a shareholder of s.bbet, I feel the house take percentage is a bit low. Compare with betsofbitco.in's 5% house take, I feel you are leaving money on the table. I think it is in the interest of the shareholders to gradually increase the percentage to at least 2% or more.
Betsofbitco.in is a very poor comparison for anything, unless it's fraud or something.
It's nice to see the reverse argument, last month there was a rash of "you should charge even less". I guess things balance out in time.
Is there anywhere to compare the volume of bitbet and betsofbitcoin?
Yes the house bet a great feature, this was one of the reasons that made me move from betsofbitco.in to bitbet (fast resolution was the other reason).
But as a shareholder of s.bbet, I feel the house take percentage is a bit low. Compare with betsofbitco.in's 5% house take, I feel you are leaving money on the table. I think it is in the interest of the shareholders to gradually increase the percentage to at least 2% or more.
But as a shareholder of s.bbet, I feel the house take percentage is a bit low. Compare with betsofbitco.in's 5% house take, I feel you are leaving money on the table. I think it is in the interest of the shareholders to gradually increase the percentage to at least 2% or more.
Betsofbitco.in is a very poor comparison for anything, unless it's fraud or something.
It's nice to see the reverse argument, last month there was a rash of "you should charge even less". I guess things balance out in time.
Hmm?
You spent 7 BTC on house bets, you won 5 BTC. Not the other way around (unless your numbers were wrong).
You spent 7 BTC on house bets, you won 5 BTC. Not the other way around (unless your numbers were wrong).
There's some confusion at work, let's dispel.
The expenditure house bets line lists the total house bets made during the month. This happens every time someone introduces a new bet, because the house finances it.
The revenue house bets line lists the total won for house bets made at any prior point just as long as the bets were settled this month. Because of this expenditure above simply contributes to the downline of further months: if someone makes a bet in March that expires in May then a .1 BTC charged by the house in March will perhaps turn up as revenue in May.
The statistical expectation is for the house to win ~50% of the bets it makes, by value. The remainder goes to pay the people putting bets in. This is by design, what they call a loss leader.
Yes the house bet a great feature, this was one of the reasons that made me move from betsofbitco.in to bitbet (fast resolution was the other reason).
But as a shareholder of s.bbet, I feel the house take percentage is a bit low. Compare with betsofbitco.in's 5% house take, I feel you are leaving money on the table. I think it is in the interest of the shareholders to gradually increase the percentage to at least 2% or more.
Hmm?
You spent 7 BTC on house bets, you won 5 BTC. Not the other way around (unless your numbers were wrong).
You spent 7 BTC on house bets, you won 5 BTC. Not the other way around (unless your numbers were wrong).
There's some confusion at work, let's dispel.
The expenditure house bets line lists the total house bets made during the month. This happens every time someone introduces a new bet, because the house finances it.
The revenue house bets line lists the total won for house bets made at any prior point just as long as the bets were settled this month. Because of this expenditure above simply contributes to the downline of further months: if someone makes a bet in March that expires in May then a .1 BTC charged by the house in March will perhaps turn up as revenue in May.
The statistical expectation is for the house to win ~50% of the bets it makes, by value. The remainder goes to pay the people putting bets in. This is by design, what they call a loss leader.
Nice increase of profit over the previous month. Hopefully we will continue to see the profit increase by 10x each month 
That doesn't seem likely.
10x per month continuously is too much, but S.BBET is probably on a trajectory to surpass S.DICE is markey capitalization eventually for the simple reason that dice are boring while Kim Jung Un and Carlos Beltran are not.
Hmm?
You spent 7 BTC on house bets, you won 5 BTC. Not the other way around (unless your numbers were wrong).
You spent 7 BTC on house bets, you won 5 BTC. Not the other way around (unless your numbers were wrong).
The advertising obliterates the need for Mircea and Matic to be perfect handicapers. It's a gambling site rather than a pretend hedgefund like BitBillions.
"iii. 7.77000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month, putting the house’s 5.39503980 BTC well above even."
Hmm?
You spent 7 BTC on house bets, you won 5 BTC. Not the other way around (unless your numbers were wrong).
You spent 7 BTC on house bets, you won 5 BTC. Not the other way around (unless your numbers were wrong).
Nice increase of profit over the previous month. Hopefully we will continue to see the profit increase by 10x each month
That doesn't seem likely.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
Nice increase of profit over the previous month. Hopefully we will continue to see the profit increase by 10x each month
March results:
*****************
Operational results
*****************
Received 143 new propositions, of which accepted 74 worth 1`646.64901255 BTC, rejected 69i.
Revenue : 58.1270556 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 26.49215232 BTCii
advertising : 3 BTC
house bets won : 5.39503980 BTCiii
gracious donations to shareholders : 23.23986348 BTCiv
Expenditure : 7.9798355 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.74983555 BTCv
house bets made : 7.23000000 BTC
Profit : 50.1472201 BTC to be distributed as dividends.
*****************
Miscellaneous
*****************
Nice month. Best of luck to all.
———
i. Up 36%, 19%, 211%, 60% respectively. The huge increase in BTC inflow reflects in small part the longer month (31 days in March vs 28 days in February) and in large part successful marketing, competent management and increased market presence of BitBet.
Note that this figure does not include any of the ~1800 BTC part of the large March BFL bet. While many seem to believe that strengthening of BTC in fiat terms will bring a lowering of wagers the converse seems to be true here. Graph :
ii. 2,649.21492883 BTC total pool resolved this month.
iii. 7.77000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month, putting the house’s 5.39503980 BTC well above even.
iv. As per the FAQ, BTC sent to expired addresses are not returned but distributed as dividends.
In rare cases this would represent a first bet sent to a betting address later than 72 hours after its creation (hasn’t happened yet). In most cases this represents BTC which was sent after the event, in an attempt to leech from the betting pool, only to have the bet closed before the transaction confirms (thus no refund).
For instance a good chunk of this month’s generous donation comes from somebody who tried to bet on BTC/USD rate being over 50 after it in fact crossed, and carefully not including a mining fee in his transaction (why pay the miners, right ?) which ensured his transaction came through about six hours after the bet was closed. His altruist generosity is muchly appreciated. On behalf of all the shareholders, plus the bettors you thought you were smarter than, plus the world in general : thank you.
v. Certainly the month’s largest percentual increase is the referrals paid sum, up 300% from last month. Very nice, keep it coming, we want to see 1k BTC+ on this line.
*****************
Operational results
*****************
Received 143 new propositions, of which accepted 74 worth 1`646.64901255 BTC, rejected 69i.
Revenue : 58.1270556 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 26.49215232 BTCii
advertising : 3 BTC
house bets won : 5.39503980 BTCiii
gracious donations to shareholders : 23.23986348 BTCiv
Expenditure : 7.9798355 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.74983555 BTCv
house bets made : 7.23000000 BTC
Profit : 50.1472201 BTC to be distributed as dividends.
*****************
Miscellaneous
*****************
Nice month. Best of luck to all.
———
i. Up 36%, 19%, 211%, 60% respectively. The huge increase in BTC inflow reflects in small part the longer month (31 days in March vs 28 days in February) and in large part successful marketing, competent management and increased market presence of BitBet.
Note that this figure does not include any of the ~1800 BTC part of the large March BFL bet. While many seem to believe that strengthening of BTC in fiat terms will bring a lowering of wagers the converse seems to be true here. Graph :
ii. 2,649.21492883 BTC total pool resolved this month.
iii. 7.77000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month, putting the house’s 5.39503980 BTC well above even.
iv. As per the FAQ, BTC sent to expired addresses are not returned but distributed as dividends.
In rare cases this would represent a first bet sent to a betting address later than 72 hours after its creation (hasn’t happened yet). In most cases this represents BTC which was sent after the event, in an attempt to leech from the betting pool, only to have the bet closed before the transaction confirms (thus no refund).
For instance a good chunk of this month’s generous donation comes from somebody who tried to bet on BTC/USD rate being over 50 after it in fact crossed, and carefully not including a mining fee in his transaction (why pay the miners, right ?) which ensured his transaction came through about six hours after the bet was closed. His altruist generosity is muchly appreciated. On behalf of all the shareholders, plus the bettors you thought you were smarter than, plus the world in general : thank you.
v. Certainly the month’s largest percentual increase is the referrals paid sum, up 300% from last month. Very nice, keep it coming, we want to see 1k BTC+ on this line.
Seems you can make a winning bet on the site and lose money.....might want to fix that.
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