Karpeles, after all […] was ultra-careful about the security issues.
Do you have any evidence of this?
It was widely reported that Karpeles fled France after being arrested for fraud while working for a company involved with "payment systems on the Internet" (his words from his blog). MtGox itself suffered repeated security breaches in the years leading up to its final downfall.
None of this sounds like the work of a security professional to me. Unless they are aiming to be a professional thief.
Are you still confident in your prediction of an imminent auction of MtGox's 200k
BTC forced by the Japanese authorities?
If the claims in this thread hold up, would that not suggest that these 200k
BTC are still in circulation (they've been used in the IPO of another company) rather than at risk of being dumped into fiat dropping the price, as you expressed concern about in another thread?