Thanks for your insights! I appreciate all indicators you have stated within your post. I have come across another great indicator that can maybe help identify clear DCA-zones, mixed DCA and cashstacking zones, and clear cashstacking zones in which one should not buy BTC from a risk-to-return perspective.
https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/ahr999
Check out AHR999-Index.
This indicator calculates the 200 day costs for BTC in relation to its current value. The following zones can be adapted for a monthly rate one is aiming to buy BTC with:
<0.45 = all in (below red line, red zone)
0.46 - 0.7 = 75% BTC, 25% Cash
0.71 - 1.0 = 50% BTC, 50% Cash
1.01-1.2 = 25% BTC, 75% Cash
>1.2 = 100% Cash (above fixed investment zone aka the green line)
With this strategy, one can invest rationally and give up emotional investing. One has a clear strategy of when to buy into BTC and when to start building cash. A great side effect of this strategy is a passive cash building strategy. When the market is then tanking again, there is enough cash on the sidelines to buy heavily into BTC. In the past, I sometimes had problems to discipline myself not to buy into too high prices. Since I found AHR999, I have been really consistent, strict, and disciplined with myself. Maybe this will help you too.
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IN GOD WE TRUST, IN CODE WE TRUST!
Long live Satoshi
EAST GREAT FALLS
Topic: MY BITCOIN BUY INDICATORS - page 2. (Read 369 times)
I start to DCA in BITCOIN again in June 2022 under $21k. Previosly i was buying BTC under $1k.
In november with FTX colaps i start to DCA more seriosly into BTC.
Previosly in June I was planing to enter in BITCOIN with smaller % of my tota bankroll. But i decide to go big time.
For now i put 10% of planed capital in BTC (for this cycle), with average price under $17k . At prices under $17k I DCA daily.
My plan of investing: I plan to push 50% of capital in BTC, when i see that most BITCOIN realistics indicators told me that bottom is in
50% of my buy indicators will be FED, inflation and recesion. So for additional 50% investment i will need to wait for intrest rates to reverse and to see official recesion.
Will i hit the bottom with my DCA? No! But I will be close to it
Of course I buy only BITCOIN now, becouse even ETH should bleed vs BTC. Time to buy altcoins will come in future.
All data i have are based on past statistic.
In november with FTX colaps i start to DCA more seriosly into BTC.
Previosly in June I was planing to enter in BITCOIN with smaller % of my tota bankroll. But i decide to go big time.
For now i put 10% of planed capital in BTC (for this cycle), with average price under $17k . At prices under $17k I DCA daily.
My plan of investing: I plan to push 50% of capital in BTC, when i see that most BITCOIN realistics indicators told me that bottom is in
50% of my buy indicators will be FED, inflation and recesion. So for additional 50% investment i will need to wait for intrest rates to reverse and to see official recesion.
Will i hit the bottom with my DCA? No! But I will be close to it
Of course I buy only BITCOIN now, becouse even ETH should bleed vs BTC. Time to buy altcoins will come in future.
All data i have are based on past statistic.
Interesting and informative. I find this post significantly more useful than the dry data/stats from the first one.
And starting the DCA at under 21k makes much more sense.
I will add that while your logic (as much as I understand it) looks consistent with the previous cycle, the war and the recession make be "modifiers" and I don't know how significant they can be/become. I don't know how good you took them into account, since afaik the worse case scenario can be 8k or at least under 10k (I hope we don't get there, still it may worth mentioning).
I don't see the war as something that would drastically affect the price of bitcoin. War is just the Fed's excuse that war is to blame for inflation. Inflation was high even before the war
What affects bitcoin the most is the irresponsible printing of money by central banks around the world, especially the Fed.
If we want to stop inflation, financial markets must collapse, unemployment must rise.
I can only hope that we stop the inflation before too many people loss jobs.
Otherwise, there may be a repeat of the 70s of the previose century, where financial markets suffered
finding the bottom is actually simpler than you think
forget the market
below the market. there are people able to acquire bitcoin CHEAPER.. they are the miners of the most efficient mining on the planet.
they are the BASE. the "no one on the planet can get below"
some less knowledgeable think bitcoins base/bottom could be $3k. but thats their opinion from market wiggle watching of a few years agos low.
it means nothing in regards to todays base.
if no one can or wants to sell below a certain level on the entire planet. then thats the base/bottom.
this base/bottom support is not something that wiggles volitally day by day. its a stable rate mainly due to miners electric contracts being allotments of MW over a 1-2 year period. averaging out the variability of their daily-monthly costs.
their hardware they run for a couple years before upgrading. again averaging out their variability.
the only variability is the hashrate competition itself which determines how much of a miners hashrate compared to the network hashrate a miner is going to get on average of coins.
but they do not play to the whims of the daily changes of mining coin rewards issued due to hashrate changes. they instead just plod along mining, and just take their coins they accumulate in a 6-24month time period and evaluate the coins of 6-24month vs their 6-24 month costs of electric/hardware
if you simply calculate the mining costs of the cheapest mining on the planet. you find this base number
forget the market
below the market. there are people able to acquire bitcoin CHEAPER.. they are the miners of the most efficient mining on the planet.
they are the BASE. the "no one on the planet can get below"
some less knowledgeable think bitcoins base/bottom could be $3k. but thats their opinion from market wiggle watching of a few years agos low.
it means nothing in regards to todays base.
if no one can or wants to sell below a certain level on the entire planet. then thats the base/bottom.
this base/bottom support is not something that wiggles volitally day by day. its a stable rate mainly due to miners electric contracts being allotments of MW over a 1-2 year period. averaging out the variability of their daily-monthly costs.
their hardware they run for a couple years before upgrading. again averaging out their variability.
the only variability is the hashrate competition itself which determines how much of a miners hashrate compared to the network hashrate a miner is going to get on average of coins.
but they do not play to the whims of the daily changes of mining coin rewards issued due to hashrate changes. they instead just plod along mining, and just take their coins they accumulate in a 6-24month time period and evaluate the coins of 6-24month vs their 6-24 month costs of electric/hardware
if you simply calculate the mining costs of the cheapest mining on the planet. you find this base number
TA & charts are always good to help you form a decision on what to do in the market but just remember all charts & theories fail eventually. Just don’t get married to any particular chart, PlanB’s S2F is a good example, totally invalidated.
I would say that DCA regularly is just as good a method as any, if your time preference is OK & you don’t need insta profits.
I would say that DCA regularly is just as good a method as any, if your time preference is OK & you don’t need insta profits.
I never made TA in my life. I prefer to look at other indicators
As i like value investing (not daily, weakly or monthly trading), i dont see value to DCA regulary.
For example
- Its not smart to put in BITCOIN when monthly BITCOIN RSI is over 90.
- its not smart to buy bitcoi when you see transaction fees are record high
- its not smart to buy bitcoin when you see record deposits of money into crypto exchanges from bank accounts
- its not smart to buy bitcoin when you see record withdraw of money from crypto exchanges to bank accounts
............
I start to DCA in BITCOIN again in June 2022 under $21k. Previosly i was buying BTC under $1k.
In november with FTX colaps i start to DCA more seriosly into BTC.
Previosly in June I was planing to enter in BITCOIN with smaller % of my tota bankroll. But i decide to go big time.
For now i put 10% of planed capital in BTC (for this cycle), with average price under $17k . At prices under $17k I DCA daily.
My plan of investing: I plan to push 50% of capital in BTC, when i see that most BITCOIN realistics indicators told me that bottom is in
50% of my buy indicators will be FED, inflation and recesion. So for additional 50% investment i will need to wait for intrest rates to reverse and to see official recesion.
Will i hit the bottom with my DCA? No! But I will be close to it
Of course I buy only BITCOIN now, becouse even ETH should bleed vs BTC. Time to buy altcoins will come in future.
All data i have are based on past statistic.
In november with FTX colaps i start to DCA more seriosly into BTC.
Previosly in June I was planing to enter in BITCOIN with smaller % of my tota bankroll. But i decide to go big time.
For now i put 10% of planed capital in BTC (for this cycle), with average price under $17k . At prices under $17k I DCA daily.
My plan of investing: I plan to push 50% of capital in BTC, when i see that most BITCOIN realistics indicators told me that bottom is in
50% of my buy indicators will be FED, inflation and recesion. So for additional 50% investment i will need to wait for intrest rates to reverse and to see official recesion.
Will i hit the bottom with my DCA? No! But I will be close to it
Of course I buy only BITCOIN now, becouse even ETH should bleed vs BTC. Time to buy altcoins will come in future.
All data i have are based on past statistic.
Interesting and informative. I find this post significantly more useful than the dry data/stats from the first one.
And starting the DCA at under 21k makes much more sense.
I will add that while your logic (as much as I understand it) looks consistent with the previous cycle, the war and the recession make be "modifiers" and I don't know how significant they can be/become. I don't know how good you took them into account, since afaik the worse case scenario can be 8k or at least under 10k (I hope we don't get there, still it may worth mentioning).
How'd you know the bottom then?
Also, to base from the past is a good idea but keep in mind that what happens at the present won't be exactly the same as with previous market behaviors. There is no consistency with this industry which includes both ups and downs of the market value of cryptocurrencies. There are too many factors affecting prices which makes it a complex pattern. The best indicator of this market are relevant news which has potential to generate huge demand after a few days. The bigger the potential, the longer the movement of the price in a particular direction. This works to both up and down market movement.
[/quote]
1) I dont look to buy at the bottom, but to buy in value zone
2) For example realistic BITCOIN indicators says that Bottom is in range betwen $13k - $20k
3) worst case scenario $4k -$13k
And than we have macro picture, that looks bad. This macro indicator wish to say bottom will be in recesion. Recesion is very like to hapened, becouse bond market is saying so.
I will give more data in coming days. As i dont know if i am alowed to put youtube links, i would prefer to avoid link sharing
So you will claim that it wasn't any under-20k price good for starting DCA? Interesting...
And how often you suggest buying while doing this DCA? Daily? Weekly? Or?
You can upload to imgur.com or postimages.org and post the links here. People will quote them and make them visible.
PS. It would be nice if you'd care to do a bit of spellcheck on what you're writing... Even the browsers offer such functionalities nowadays... I mean if you're careless with writing, why you wouldn't also be careless with your TA?
I start to DCA in BITCOIN again in June 2022 under $21k. Previosly i was buying BTC under $1k.
In november with FTX colaps i start to DCA more seriosly into BTC.
Previosly in June I was planing to enter in BITCOIN with smaller % of my tota bankroll. But i decide to go big time.
For now i put 10% of planed capital in BTC (for this cycle), with average price under $17k . At prices under $17k I DCA daily.
My plan of investing: I plan to push 50% of capital in BTC, when i see that most BITCOIN realistics indicators told me that bottom is in
50% of my buy indicators will be FED, inflation and recesion. So for additional 50% investment i will need to wait for intrest rates to reverse and to see official recesion.
Will i hit the bottom with my DCA? No! But I will be close to it
Of course I buy only BITCOIN now, becouse even ETH should bleed vs BTC. Time to buy altcoins will come in future.
All data i have are based on past statistic.
Also, to base from the past is a good idea but keep in mind that what happens at the present won't be exactly the same as with previous market behaviors. There is no consistency with this industry which includes both ups and downs of the market value of cryptocurrencies. There are too many factors affecting prices which makes it a complex pattern. The best indicator of this market are relevant news which has potential to generate huge demand after a few days. The bigger the potential, the longer the movement of the price in a particular direction. This works to both up and down market movement.
[/quote]
1) I dont look to buy at the bottom, but to buy in value zone
2) For example realistic BITCOIN indicators says that Bottom is in range betwen $13k - $20k
3) worst case scenario $4k -$13k
And than we have macro picture, that looks bad. This macro indicator wish to say bottom will be in recesion. Recesion is very like to hapened, becouse bond market is saying so.
I will give more data in coming days. As i dont know if i am alowed to put youtube links, i would prefer to avoid link sharing
SO DEFENETLY A VALUE PRICE FOR ME TO START DCA in BITCOIN
So you will claim that it wasn't any under-20k price good for starting DCA? Interesting...
And how often you suggest buying while doing this DCA? Daily? Weekly? Or?
I cant post pictures yet on this forum. But I will try to explain bitcoin indicators that i use
You can upload to imgur.com or postimages.org and post the links here. People will quote them and make them visible.
PS. It would be nice if you'd care to do a bit of spellcheck on what you're writing... Even the browsers offer such functionalities nowadays... I mean if you're careless with writing, why you wouldn't also be careless with your TA?
I start to DCA in BITCOIN again in June 2022 under $21k. Previosly i was buying BTC under $1k.
In november with FTX colaps i start to DCA more seriosly into BTC.
Previosly in June I was planing to enter in BITCOIN with smaller % of my tota bankroll. But i decide to go big time.
For now i put 10% of planed capital in BTC (for this cycle), with average price under $17k . At prices under $17k I DCA daily.
My plan of investing: I plan to push 50% of capital in BTC, when i see that most BITCOIN realistics indicators told me that bottom is in
50% of my buy indicators will be FED, inflation and recesion. So for additional 50% investment i will need to wait for intrest rates to reverse and to see official recesion.
Will i hit the bottom with my DCA? No! But I will be close to it
Of course I buy only BITCOIN now, becouse even ETH should bleed vs BTC. Time to buy altcoins will come in future.
All data i have are based on past statistic.
TA & charts are always good to help you form a decision on what to do in the market but just remember all charts & theories fail eventually. Just don’t get married to any particular chart, PlanB’s S2F is a good example, totally invalidated.
I would say that DCA regularly is just as good a method as any, if your time preference is OK & you don’t need insta profits.
I would say that DCA regularly is just as good a method as any, if your time preference is OK & you don’t need insta profits.
SO DEFENETLY A VALUE PRICE FOR ME TO START DCA in BITCOIN
So you will claim that it wasn't any under-20k price good for starting DCA? Interesting...
And how often you suggest buying while doing this DCA? Daily? Weekly? Or?
I cant post pictures yet on this forum. But I will try to explain bitcoin indicators that i use
You can upload to imgur.com or postimages.org and post the links here. People will quote them and make them visible.
PS. It would be nice if you'd care to do a bit of spellcheck on what you're writing... Even the browsers offer such functionalities nowadays... I mean if you're careless with writing, why you wouldn't also be careless with your TA?
I cant post pictures yet on this forum. But I will try to explain bitcoin indicators that i use
Yes i buy BITCOIN when is normaly in accomulate phase like we are now
1 Price forcast matric is almost at the bottom. Bottom is close, but not in yet
2 Monthly BITCOIN fear index wish to say we hit the bottom
3 Monthly RSI is at lowest level ever. Sign we alredy hit the bottom
4 Real BITCOIN dominance is closer to the bottom of this cycle (60%). Top dominance was 85% in 2019( after 2016). I dont expect we hit 85% again, but we are much more away from this levels.. So I see more potential to buy BITCOIN now than altcoins
5 Puel Multiple index was very close to the bottom. Bottom is not in, but we are close!
6 RHOLD ratio tell us bottom is in or very close.
7 Reserve risk is all time low. This is sign that bottom is potentialy in!
8 MVRV index is close to the bottom. Index wish to say that the bottom is still not in
9 ETH+BTC dominance is moving around the bottom in this cycle. Indicator that advice not to buy random altcoins now
10 Long term holders are stong as never before. BITCOIN belivers never had so strong hands ever before. BITCOIN is close to the bottom. This indicator cant predict how close to the bottom we are.
11 We spend several months unde 200 weekly simple moving average. We tached also 300 weekly simple moving yestrday (like in previose cycle). Potentialy this indicate that bottom is in! Potentialy we could hit 400 weekly simple moving average (this is pure speculation)
12 BITCOIN Transactions fees are drasticly down. This indicate that potential bottom is in. Previose cycle fees droped 99,7%, This cycle transaction fees droped 99,1%
13 Twitter interest in BTC in previose cycle droped 70%. In this cycle it droped 38%. This indicate that we have still potential to drop more in BTC price
14 Buy BITCOIN at RED yearly closing candle is historicly top buy oportunety
SO DEFENETLY A VALUE PRICE FOR ME TO START DCA in BITCOIN
More value posts in next few days
How'd you know the bottom then?Yes i buy BITCOIN when is normaly in accomulate phase like we are now
1 Price forcast matric is almost at the bottom. Bottom is close, but not in yet
2 Monthly BITCOIN fear index wish to say we hit the bottom
3 Monthly RSI is at lowest level ever. Sign we alredy hit the bottom
4 Real BITCOIN dominance is closer to the bottom of this cycle (60%). Top dominance was 85% in 2019( after 2016). I dont expect we hit 85% again, but we are much more away from this levels.. So I see more potential to buy BITCOIN now than altcoins
5 Puel Multiple index was very close to the bottom. Bottom is not in, but we are close!
6 RHOLD ratio tell us bottom is in or very close.
7 Reserve risk is all time low. This is sign that bottom is potentialy in!
8 MVRV index is close to the bottom. Index wish to say that the bottom is still not in
9 ETH+BTC dominance is moving around the bottom in this cycle. Indicator that advice not to buy random altcoins now
10 Long term holders are stong as never before. BITCOIN belivers never had so strong hands ever before. BITCOIN is close to the bottom. This indicator cant predict how close to the bottom we are.
11 We spend several months unde 200 weekly simple moving average. We tached also 300 weekly simple moving yestrday (like in previose cycle). Potentialy this indicate that bottom is in! Potentialy we could hit 400 weekly simple moving average (this is pure speculation)
12 BITCOIN Transactions fees are drasticly down. This indicate that potential bottom is in. Previose cycle fees droped 99,7%, This cycle transaction fees droped 99,1%
13 Twitter interest in BTC in previose cycle droped 70%. In this cycle it droped 38%. This indicate that we have still potential to drop more in BTC price
14 Buy BITCOIN at RED yearly closing candle is historicly top buy oportunety
SO DEFENETLY A VALUE PRICE FOR ME TO START DCA in BITCOIN
More value posts in next few days
Also, to base from the past is a good idea but keep in mind that what happens at the present won't be exactly the same as with previous market behaviors. There is no consistency with this industry which includes both ups and downs of the market value of cryptocurrencies. There are too many factors affecting prices which makes it a complex pattern. The best indicator of this market are relevant news which has potential to generate huge demand after a few days. The bigger the potential, the longer the movement of the price in a particular direction. This works to both up and down market movement.
I cant post pictures yet on this forum. But I will try to explain bitcoin indicators that i use
Yes i buy BITCOIN when is normaly in accomulate phase like we are now
1 Price forcast matric is almost at the bottom. Bottom is close, but not in yet
2 Monthly BITCOIN fear index wish to say we hit the bottom
3 Monthly RSI is at lowest level ever. Sign we alredy hit the bottom
4 Real BITCOIN dominance is closer to the bottom of this cycle (60%). Top dominance was 85% in 2019( after 2016). I dont expect we hit 85% again, but we are much more away from this levels.. So I see more potential to buy BITCOIN now than altcoins
5 Puel Multiple index was very close to the bottom. Bottom is not in, but we are close!
6 RHOLD ratio tell us bottom is in or very close.
7 Reserve risk is all time low. This is sign that bottom is potentialy in!
8 MVRV index is close to the bottom. Index wish to say that the bottom is still not in
9 ETH+BTC dominance is moving around the bottom in this cycle. Indicator that advice not to buy random altcoins now
10 Long term holders are stong as never before. BITCOIN belivers never had so strong hands ever before. BITCOIN is close to the bottom. This indicator cant predict how close to the bottom we are.
11 We spend several months unde 200 weekly simple moving average. We tached also 300 weekly simple moving yestrday (like in previose cycle). Potentialy this indicate that bottom is in! Potentialy we could hit 400 weekly simple moving average (this is pure speculation)
12 BITCOIN Transactions fees are drasticly down. This indicate that potential bottom is in. Previose cycle fees droped 99,7%, This cycle transaction fees droped 99,1%
13 Twitter interest in BTC in previose cycle droped 70%. In this cycle it droped 38%. This indicate that we have still potential to drop more in BTC price
14 Buy BITCOIN at RED yearly closing candle is historicly top buy oportunety
SO DEFENETLY A VALUE PRICE FOR ME TO START DCA in BITCOIN
More value posts in next few days
Yes i buy BITCOIN when is normaly in accomulate phase like we are now
1 Price forcast matric is almost at the bottom. Bottom is close, but not in yet
2 Monthly BITCOIN fear index wish to say we hit the bottom
3 Monthly RSI is at lowest level ever. Sign we alredy hit the bottom
4 Real BITCOIN dominance is closer to the bottom of this cycle (60%). Top dominance was 85% in 2019( after 2016). I dont expect we hit 85% again, but we are much more away from this levels.. So I see more potential to buy BITCOIN now than altcoins
5 Puel Multiple index was very close to the bottom. Bottom is not in, but we are close!
6 RHOLD ratio tell us bottom is in or very close.
7 Reserve risk is all time low. This is sign that bottom is potentialy in!
8 MVRV index is close to the bottom. Index wish to say that the bottom is still not in
9 ETH+BTC dominance is moving around the bottom in this cycle. Indicator that advice not to buy random altcoins now
10 Long term holders are stong as never before. BITCOIN belivers never had so strong hands ever before. BITCOIN is close to the bottom. This indicator cant predict how close to the bottom we are.
11 We spend several months unde 200 weekly simple moving average. We tached also 300 weekly simple moving yestrday (like in previose cycle). Potentialy this indicate that bottom is in! Potentialy we could hit 400 weekly simple moving average (this is pure speculation)
12 BITCOIN Transactions fees are drasticly down. This indicate that potential bottom is in. Previose cycle fees droped 99,7%, This cycle transaction fees droped 99,1%
13 Twitter interest in BTC in previose cycle droped 70%. In this cycle it droped 38%. This indicate that we have still potential to drop more in BTC price
14 Buy BITCOIN at RED yearly closing candle is historicly top buy oportunety
SO DEFENETLY A VALUE PRICE FOR ME TO START DCA in BITCOIN
More value posts in next few days
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