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Topic: My Bitcoin Speculation Thread. Please Critique my Analysis. ;) - page 2. (Read 7783 times)

legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
It looks like Bitcoin will be correlated again with the stock markets. There was a nasty open which led to the stock indicies getting the limit down halt hit and BTC also had selling pressure.

It does look that way. Technicals and fundamentals are both pointing down. The pre-market futures open and the failure of the US stimulus bill has really set the tone for next week.

So the reaction of the New York open will be the sign of how the rest of the week will trade. And especially the reaction to the unemployment numbers when they get released later on.

Scary headlines on that front:

Michigan sees 2,100% increase in unemployment claims

COVID-19’s Worst Case? 10.6% Jobless Rate, $1.5 Trillion GDP Drop

Quote
Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard expects that by April the unemployment rate will rise from 3.5% in February to 10.6% — with 12 million more unemployed than the 5.9 million total from last month — a 203% spike.
legendary
Activity: 3808
Merit: 1723
It looks like Bitcoin will be correlated again with the stock markets. There was a nasty open which led to the stock indicies getting the limit down halt hit and BTC also had selling pressure.

I don't think we will go from $8K to $3.4K in a day or so of trading however if the dow30 and sp500 get another nasty -10% day then most likely so will bitcoin. Currently the numbers are going up exponentially and people honestly are fearing for the worst. So the reaction of the New York open will be the sign of how the rest of the week will trade. And especially the reaction to the unemployment numbers when they get released later on.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
^  So that means (he thinks) it could start going sideways.  I don't think a lot of traders are too excited getting back in after that huge break down from 8k to 4k.  Lol.  They could go short tho.

Sure, trading in the $5,000s now is like trading in the $200s in 2015. BTCUSD was extremely bearish from Q1-Q3 2015 in any longer term classical TA sense.

In the same way, the recent drop from $10K was quite bearish and it still feels like the bottom could fall out any time now. Will it? Stay tuned and find out. The high volume V-bottom off $3,850 tells me we may be in another 2015-like accumulation period. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54020305
legendary
Activity: 3976
Merit: 1421
Life, Love and Laughter...
^  So that means (he thinks) it could start going sideways.  I don't think a lot of traders are too excited getting back in after that huge break down from 8k to 4k.  Lol.  They could go short tho.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
Here we go...  Is it the much awaited reversal or a dead cat bounce?  Anybody's guess is as good as mine.  If a guy pointed a gun on my head and I had to choose.  Sorry sorry but it'll be the latter.

The reaction about the 200-week MA suggests a historic V-bottom. Coinbase had its highest weekly volume on record.

It may technically be a dead cat bounce but like David I have doubts the next attempt down will actually yield a lower low.

It's not "just a flu"...

Flu has a fatality rate of 0.1%
Corona has a fatality rate is 6.9% based on the Chinese numbers.... which is 690x worse than the flu.

No way, the original estimates were way overblown just like with the swine flu.

The overall fatality rate among symptomatic cases was 1.4% in Wuhan. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/health/wuhan-coronavirus-deaths.html

When we can better account for asymptomatic cases, I expect the rate to be revised south of 1%. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/what-is-coronavirus-how-did-it-start-and-what-is-the-mortality-rate

Quote
It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower.
legendary
Activity: 3976
Merit: 1421
Life, Love and Laughter...
Here we go...  Is it the much awaited reversal or a dead cat bounce?  Anybody's guess is as good as mine.  If a guy pointed a gun on my head and I had to choose.  Sorry sorry but it'll be the latter.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
I said we are in a bear market. You keep selling hopium, saying that the profit was 100%+ from 3k, but how many bought at 3k? What about those who bought at 6k, 9k, 12k? What about those who have families to feed and were in DCA, buying every week, regardless of price?

Now you are going to blame the fake pandemic on this dump, to sell more hopium. This fake pandemic is the beginning of a global police state, and the whales who sold themselves to paper speculation will dump their bitcoins.

The pandemic is very much "not a hoax"
It might not be as bad as people expect  but it is a worldwide epidemic.
It has nothing to do with a police state ....

Stop smoking bad stuff.... Wink


Really? Then why the italian government turned a entire region into a prison?
Its just a flu virus, known for decades. They are computing every death from pneumonia as part of the "pandemic".

1)
Quarantine is not a prison. It's a request to stay home to stop the spread. It's not to suppress the people, it's to stop them dying.
A lot of peope have self-quarantined. Most can work from home anyways....

2)
It's not "just a flu"...

Flu has a fatality rate of 0.1%
Corona has a fatality rate is 6.9% based on the Chinese numbers.... which is 690x worse than the flu.

3)
Where did you hear this? This is simply not true...

4)
So please inform yourself....

Here is a good source of live data
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
sr. member
Activity: 1400
Merit: 347
I said we are in a bear market. You keep selling hopium, saying that the profit was 100%+ from 3k, but how many bought at 3k? What about those who bought at 6k, 9k, 12k? What about those who have families to feed and were in DCA, buying every week, regardless of price?

Now you are going to blame the fake pandemic on this dump, to sell more hopium. This fake pandemic is the beginning of a global police state, and the whales who sold themselves to paper speculation will dump their bitcoins.

The pandemic is very much "not a hoax"
It might not be as bad as people expect  but it is a worldwide epidemic.
It has nothing to do with a police state ....

Stop smoking bad stuff.... Wink


Really? Then why the italian government turned a entire region into a prison?
Its just a flu virus, known for decades. They are computing every death from pneumonia as part of the "pandemic".
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
I said we are in a bear market. You keep selling hopium, saying that the profit was 100%+ from 3k, but how many bought at 3k? What about those who bought at 6k, 9k, 12k? What about those who have families to feed and were in DCA, buying every week, regardless of price?

Now you are going to blame the fake pandemic on this dump, to sell more hopium. This fake pandemic is the beginning of a global police state, and the whales who sold themselves to paper speculation will dump their bitcoins.

The pandemic is very much "not a hoax"
It might not be as bad as people expect  but it is a worldwide epidemic.
It has nothing to do with a police state ....

Stop smoking bad stuff.... Wink
sr. member
Activity: 1400
Merit: 347
I said we are in a bear market. You keep selling hopium, saying that the profit was 100%+ from 3k, but how many bought at 3k? What about those who bought at 6k, 9k, 12k? What about those who have families to feed and were in DCA, buying every week, regardless of price?

Now you are going to blame the fake pandemic on this dump, to sell more hopium. This fake pandemic is the beginning of a global police state, and the whales who sold themselves to paper speculation will dump their bitcoins.
legendary
Activity: 3976
Merit: 1421
Life, Love and Laughter...
^  What about now?  Where are the bull BTC maxis?  Seriously tho...  I hate to be right in this instance.  But yeah DCB's all around coming guys.  -_-
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
Everyone is getting so bearish!

The majority polled in the WO expect <$8,000. Lots of Masterluc bear cubs in there.

Some fresh new bearish threads in the last couple days too:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/here-is-why-the-market-is-still-bearish-nothing-to-do-with-the-corona-virus-5228812
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/another-decline-of-btc-expected-5228941
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/doubt-the-tested-support-at-64k-will-hold-forever-5229120

I'm feeling contrarian. We rallied from the mid-$6Ks to the mid-$10Ks then retraced 50% and consolidated around the 200-day MA. That doesn't seem overly bearish to me.

I need more evidence before assuming it's time to sell the bounce.

I'm always bullish  Cheesy Cheesy

But indeed people sometimes switching there minds to fast ....

Hope non are gonna sell the imminent bounce... the one that doesn't look back  Grin

A lot of people will. It's inevitable, that's how markets work. They build up all this fear and panic during temporary downtrends, so when the reversal occurs everyone is left in disbelief. Then they keep waiting and waiting for the price to drop but it never does.

Then FOMO kicks in. Cool

The important thing is not to get swept up in all this emotion, fear, greed. And also this:

Never sell all your BTC. Always keep a stack in cold storage.

I respect profit taking; I'm a trader after all. Just don't forget that golden rule. The potential upside of BTC is limitless and we're on the ground floor. Our children and grandchildren will talk about these opportunities we had today. Put some coins aside for their sake.
legendary
Activity: 2688
Merit: 13334
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
Uuuhh...  Looks like it's gonna turn from dip buying to bounce selling.  Lower highs for the time being for now folks...  I think.  -_- 

Everyone is getting so bearish!

The majority polled in the WO expect <$8,000. Lots of Masterluc bear cubs in there.

Some fresh new bearish threads in the last couple days too:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/here-is-why-the-market-is-still-bearish-nothing-to-do-with-the-corona-virus-5228812
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/another-decline-of-btc-expected-5228941
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/doubt-the-tested-support-at-64k-will-hold-forever-5229120

I'm feeling contrarian. We rallied from the mid-$6Ks to the mid-$10Ks then retraced 50% and consolidated around the 200-day MA. That doesn't seem overly bearish to me.

I need more evidence before assuming it's time to sell the bounce.

I'm always bullish  Cheesy Cheesy

But indeed people sometimes switching there minds to fast ....

Hope non are gonna sell the imminent bounce... the one that doesn't look back  Grin
full member
Activity: 574
Merit: 108
As the price of Bitcoin rise and falls everyday this month of February, the number of causes it might indicate is a lot, we can't really limit ourselves with two choices only. But, by observing the past movement in the price or standing of Bitcoin, as it had reached its highest record for this year, we could conclude that a lot of holders have sold their Bitcoin because of the pump in the price of $11,500 value. On the other hand, the presentation of supply and demand for the Bitcoin price is great as it shows the rise and fall in the standing of Bitcoin.

Panic sellers or not, we should expect a comeback for the price of Bitcoin especially, when the halving event is certainly coming closer each day.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 2213
Everyone is getting so bearish!

I'm still bullish, more bullish than I was at $10K that's for sure. Probably because everyone is getting very bearish and ready to panic sell by the looks of it  Tongue
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
Uuuhh...  Looks like it's gonna turn from dip buying to bounce selling.  Lower highs for the time being for now folks...  I think.  -_- 

Everyone is getting so bearish!

The majority polled in the WO expect <$8,000. Lots of Masterluc bear cubs in there.

Some fresh new bearish threads in the last couple days too:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/here-is-why-the-market-is-still-bearish-nothing-to-do-with-the-corona-virus-5228812
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/another-decline-of-btc-expected-5228941
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/doubt-the-tested-support-at-64k-will-hold-forever-5229120

I'm feeling contrarian. We rallied from the mid-$6Ks to the mid-$10Ks then retraced 50% and consolidated around the 200-day MA. That doesn't seem overly bearish to me.

I need more evidence before assuming it's time to sell the bounce.
legendary
Activity: 3976
Merit: 1421
Life, Love and Laughter...
Uuuhh...  Looks like it's gonna turn from dip buying to bounce selling.  Lower highs for the time being for now folks...  I think.  -_- 
legendary
Activity: 3976
Merit: 1421
Life, Love and Laughter...
Here's that moment to finally see if this s**t's real or not.  But I hate the way it bounced so fast with no serious volume behind it.  Could be a DCB...?

Edit:  But then again if you look at it this way, it looks like all the selling is done with 7k(ish) the bottom.

legendary
Activity: 3976
Merit: 1421
Life, Love and Laughter...
Not looking good (but still holding on).  *This is the part when I get spooked and sell without it letting hit my stop and be happy I saved some BTC's in the process, only to see it go 3x without me (my ETC trade)*  Lolol.
legendary
Activity: 3976
Merit: 1421
Life, Love and Laughter...
^  Meme prolly turning out to be true.  The lack of volume is getting a little bit concerning.  Lol.  It could be another chance to do a little dip buy tho.  We'll see...  (Get your stops ready)
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