My Bitcoin Speculation Thread. Please Critique my Analysis. ;) - page 5.

tokeweed

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Quote from: sandiman on March 30, 2017, 02:03:58 PM

Quote from: tokeweed on March 30, 2017, 12:03:18 AM

I meant that in general. For me personally, I do a semi mechanical trading style and follow thru with the plan no matter what. I think I'm one of the people who suffer huge drawdowns percentage wise here in the forum. I have trades where I could have gotten out with +3x returns only to see them become losing trades at certain times. It sucks but it's always about the long run.

if you follow a plan that win on the long run, you're good given that you've got enough capital to support the drawdowns period which always happen, I'd even say most of the time.

Yeah, but sometimes it gets really frustrating. Especially when I hear stories in the troll box in an exchange that 'so and so' starting with .5 BTC and ran it up to 80 BTC in a week trading with maximum leverage. Lol. I don't know if they're telling the truth or trolling or something.

sandiman

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Quote from: tokeweed on March 30, 2017, 12:03:18 AM

I meant that in general. For me personally, I do a semi mechanical trading style and follow thru with the plan no matter what. I think I'm one of the people who suffer huge drawdowns percentage wise here in the forum. I have trades where I could have gotten out with +3x returns only to see them become losing trades at certain times. It sucks but it's always about the long run.

if you follow a plan that win on the long run, you're good given that you've got enough capital to support the drawdowns period which always happen, I'd even say most of the time.

tokeweed

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I meant that in general. For me personally, I do a semi mechanical trading style and follow thru with the plan no matter what. I think I'm one of the people who suffer huge drawdowns percentage wise here in the forum. I have trades where I could have gotten out with +3x returns only to see them become losing trades at certain times. It sucks but it's always about the long run.

sandiman

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Quote from: tokeweed on March 29, 2017, 12:50:35 AM

Quote from: sandiman on March 28, 2017, 03:46:43 PM

for less risk averse people, shorting bitcoin longing alt may increase gain considerably (at least it has been my case since one month).

That's true, but it does increase the volatility on your portfolio tho.

Anyway, here's a visualization of what I was trying to say in my post above. It's the perfect set up to short imho. But as always get ready to cover if the trade goes against you.

BTC/USD: Three Dead Cat Bounces

if you're to focused on portfolio volatility while it is going with your actual trade plan, watching equity curve can increase the drawdown period as you start being afraid of more loss and stop following the plan for when the big trade happen.

tokeweed

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Quote from: sandiman on March 28, 2017, 03:46:43 PM

for less risk averse people, shorting bitcoin longing alt may increase gain considerably (at least it has been my case since one month).

That's true, but it does increase the volatility on your portfolio tho.

Anyway, here's a visualization of what I was trying to say in my post above. It's the perfect set up to short imho. But as always get ready to cover if the trade goes against you.

BTC/USD: Three Dead Cat Bounces

sandiman

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for less risk averse people, shorting bitcoin longing alt may increase gain considerably (at least it has been my case since one month).

tokeweed

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Another dead cat bounce. Expect BTC/USD to fall again soon folks. And imho, if you missed going short for whatever reasons, where the price of Bitcoin is now is a good window for a little shorting. Check the daily chart if you can, there has been three lower highs already including the one now.

tokeweed

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Well it looks like I was wrong in second guessing myself and that Bitcoin was indeed in a bull trap. This time around I'd be careful with the trading strategy 'buying the dips'. It was a good strategy before, but with the Core vs BU thng going on, I'd rather buy the dips on a good stable altcoin.

tokeweed

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No stupid charts to visualize what's happening this time. Anyway... So the Winklevoss bro.s' little play toy, the BTC ETF has been rejected. So what now? Is this the end of the current trend or are we seeing more bullishness come our way?

Imo, I think Bitcoin will continue rising. The hell with China and the hell with that joke, the ETF. Bitcoin is good as is.

Post below and tell us what you think.

tokeweed

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Yep. It's Looking More and More Like a Bull Trap.

Do we have to say anything and deny it? It's right in there in front of our faces. Did you really think the PBOC will stay away after a couple of warnings from them? No, they're out there to cause havoc. If you have BTC in a Chinese exchange. GTFO now!

sandiman

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Quote from: mkmdoc on February 06, 2017, 03:25:23 AM

Quote from: tokeweed on February 06, 2017, 01:21:40 AM

Quote from: sandiman on February 04, 2017, 07:25:27 AM

Quote from: tokeweed on February 04, 2017, 02:00:29 AM

Yeah I gotta admit, when I made the post it was due to the frustration of Bitcoin quicky surging on the minute I was already getting interested in altcoins again. Particularly MAID, XEM and NXT. So all bets were off. Made a little with the first two (should have made more) but thankfully it made me let go of NXT earlier than planned, limiting the loss.

So no rational explaination there. Grin

Now holding all BTC and looking for solid alts at discount prices. I'm also thinking of gambling some at QTUM ICO too.

Nice; i am personnaly still in the alts I bought 2/3 months ago, I have more than enough BTCs Grin

Heh. I hope you don't get too in love with them. I can see a couple of alts getting ripe to be shorted in the coming weeks, granting that Bitcoin continues the uptrend that is.

Yes i see many altcoin are failing in ICO itself only, but we have to be very careful in choosing the altcoin in order to make profits from it. I hope bitcoin is the best option when compared to altcoin because bitcoin price is steadily increasing.

Bitcoin is the best choice Cheesy

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Quote from: tokeweed on February 06, 2017, 01:21:40 AM

Quote from: sandiman on February 04, 2017, 07:25:27 AM

Quote from: tokeweed on February 04, 2017, 02:00:29 AM

Yeah I gotta admit, when I made the post it was due to the frustration of Bitcoin quicky surging on the minute I was already getting interested in altcoins again. Particularly MAID, XEM and NXT. So all bets were off. Made a little with the first two (should have made more) but thankfully it made me let go of NXT earlier than planned, limiting the loss.

So no rational explaination there. Grin

Now holding all BTC and looking for solid alts at discount prices. I'm also thinking of gambling some at QTUM ICO too.

Nice; i am personnaly still in the alts I bought 2/3 months ago, I have more than enough BTCs Grin

Heh. I hope you don't get too in love with them. I can see a couple of alts getting ripe to be shorted in the coming weeks, granting that Bitcoin continues the uptrend that is.

Yes i see many altcoin are failing in ICO itself only, but we have to be very careful in choosing the altcoin in order to make profits from it. I hope bitcoin is the best option when compared to altcoin because bitcoin price is steadily increasing.

tokeweed

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Quote from: sandiman on February 04, 2017, 07:25:27 AM

Quote from: tokeweed on February 04, 2017, 02:00:29 AM

Yeah I gotta admit, when I made the post it was due to the frustration of Bitcoin quicky surging on the minute I was already getting interested in altcoins again. Particularly MAID, XEM and NXT. So all bets were off. Made a little with the first two (should have made more) but thankfully it made me let go of NXT earlier than planned, limiting the loss.

So no rational explaination there. Grin

Now holding all BTC and looking for solid alts at discount prices. I'm also thinking of gambling some at QTUM ICO too.

Nice; i am personnaly still in the alts I bought 2/3 months ago, I have more than enough BTCs Grin

Heh. I hope you don't get too in love with them. I can see a couple of alts getting ripe to be shorted in the coming weeks, granting that Bitcoin continues the uptrend that is.

sandiman

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Quote from: tokeweed on February 04, 2017, 02:00:29 AM

Yeah I gotta admit, when I made the post it was due to the frustration of Bitcoin quicky surging on the minute I was already getting interested in altcoins again. Particularly MAID, XEM and NXT. So all bets were off. Made a little with the first two (should have made more) but thankfully it made me let go of NXT earlier than planned, limiting the loss.

So no rational explaination there. Grin

Now holding all BTC and looking for solid alts at discount prices. I'm also thinking of gambling some at QTUM ICO too.

Nice; i am personnaly still in the alts I bought 2/3 months ago, I have more than enough BTCs Grin

tokeweed

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Yeah I gotta admit, when I made the post it was due to the frustration of Bitcoin quicky surging on the minute I was already getting interested in altcoins again. Particularly MAID, XEM and NXT. So all bets were off. Made a little with the first two (should have made more) but thankfully it made me let go of NXT earlier than planned, limiting the loss.

So no rational explaination there. Grin

Now holding all BTC and looking for solid alts at discount prices. I'm also thinking of gambling some at QTUM ICO too.

sandiman

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Quote from: tokeweed on February 02, 2017, 11:28:33 PM

We'll see it more if Bitcoin surpasses the recent high. But something tells me that this could also be a double top. Something inside me is saying that I should place short sell orders at the 1130 - 1140 USD area right now in anticipation of a likely double top. Then again if other traders are also anticipating it, it could fall before it could even reach that level creating the bull trap. Safer bet would be the anticipation of the double top imo. Then place covers a tad higher in case it surges up some more. Gamboool! Wink

this is pure gambling my friend ...

any rational idea for anticipating a double top ? 2017 is bitcoin's year (well it was already since mid 2015 Grin

)

tokeweed

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We'll see it more if Bitcoin surpasses the recent high. But something tells me that this could also be a double top. Something inside me is saying that I should place short sell orders at the 1130 - 1140 USD area right now in anticipation of a likely double top. Then again if other traders are also anticipating it, it could fall before it could even reach that level creating the bull trap. Safer bet would be the anticipation of the double top imo. Then place covers a tad higher in case it surges up some more. Gamboool! Wink

Denker

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On the daily charts Bitcoin still moves in an uptrend channel with a breakout the last two days.
And as long as we don't leave that channel downwards I wouldn't even think about shorting Bitcoin.

Ted E. Bare

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Bear with me

What I think: Do not short bitcoin. The price has been increasing dramatically almost every year. Shorting is way too risky.

tokeweed

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Is This the Bull Trap We Have Been Waiting For?

So I got impatient and shorted a little and lost. Lol. I should have listened to my own advice and actually waited for that bull trap. Well, this could be it... BUT it also couldn't be considering how unpredictable Bitcoin traders are. Sometimes they flick a switch and boom, we have a new uptrend that could go on for weeks.

Yeah, I'm lost. Huh

Tell me what you think by posting a comment below. Thanks!

Topic: My Bitcoin Speculation Thread. Please Critique my Analysis. ;) - page 5. (Read 7783 times)