My crazy fractal idea of what a downtrend resume would look like (IF IT DOES)

maker88

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

Quote from: DieJohnny on August 19, 2014, 10:49:58 AM

We are heading down below $200, I will call $127.52 on Oct 18th.

we stay below $150 for at least six months, so time to buy is Feb or March next year.

Ok you've pointed out a legit ironclad point of resistance, but why do you think it will be there around October? Any reasoning or just intuition(not that there's anything wrong with intuition I use it all the time)

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

Quote from: DieJohnny on August 19, 2014, 10:49:58 AM

We are heading down below $200, I will call $127.52 on Oct 18th.

we stay below $150 for at least six months, so time to buy is Feb or March next year.

Based on what exactly? This doesn't sound very realistic to me. Do you like to pull random things out of your ass?

dropt

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1000

Quote from: DieJohnny on August 19, 2014, 10:49:58 AM

We are heading down below $200, I will call $127.52 on Oct 18th.

we stay below $150 for at least six months, so time to buy is Feb or March next year.

That is probably the dumbest thing I've read on here in the last two days. Please help me think it's not dumb and show me why you believe this.

DieJohnny

legendary

Activity: 1639

Merit: 1004

We are heading down below $200, I will call $127.52 on Oct 18th.

we stay below $150 for at least six months, so time to buy is Feb or March next year.

w4ssop

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

So we are going to reach $300 and then rebound to infinity?

dropt

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1000

Quote from: blatchcorn on August 19, 2014, 09:49:33 AM

Who else is expecting Tera to show up soon?

What if Tera's the manipulator? Mind blown.

magicmexican

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 1000

Quote from: zby on June 12, 2014, 07:23:59 AM

For such drawings to be valid you need to add either:

A) a dinosaur

or

B) a guy smoking a joint

This guy knows whats up

blatchcorn

sr. member

Activity: 952

Merit: 281

Who else is expecting Tera to show up soon?

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

You don't want to be called a bear and then you post this. The blue line in the first graph touches the graph in exactly two places, one of which is now ....

damiano

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.

Wow definitely something to think about.

Nice Tera

MoreFun

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1003

WePower.red

Your comments in general have some wisdom and objectivity, majority just talk their book.

You can see by style and type of comments and at which situations and in which threads are posted.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: MoreFun on June 12, 2014, 09:19:03 AM

Haha guys, this can't be true, I know your position (most of you) just from a few of your last posts... so simple to speak own book.

No, I'm afraid you don't.

Hard as it might be for you to believe, not every post in here is meant to "speak your book", some of the commentary (at least my own) can be contrary to my position. Describing a contrarian case as a "trial balloon", seeing if I can get some interesting feedback on it that might ultimately might lead me to *adjust* my position.

okthen

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 500

Quote from: falllling on June 12, 2014, 05:29:21 AM

agree with the last chart, we are going down thanks for the mtgox 800k + 200k lost coins and the China ban, $680 - $630 - $600 - $5xx - fast to $400 - $3xx

I think you are living two months ago.
That already happened.

MoreFun

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1003

WePower.red

Haha guys, this can't be true, I know your position (most of you) just from a few of your last posts... so simple to speak own book.

gizmoh

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1000

A nice long video from DanV :

BITCOIN - Could it confound the BULLS?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzZ0t9BVLPA

bitcoinsrus

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Great work on this post (charts and explanation). After it broke 600, I thought that was the end. Went to 680 then to 640 then to 620. Personally I do not think it will break 600 but I guess a flash crash or something could happen. Anyways, glad you always speak your mind.

MatTheCat

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: TERA on June 12, 2014, 05:12:18 AM

Again I'm not saying or hoping that this will happen and it's just an idea for the math brains to think about.

This is pretty much the DanV scenario and I certainly wouldn't be writing it off. He was calling for retest of the $400 range lows on Jan 5th, the eve of the 2014 top, and at a time when everyone thought it was a foregone conclusion that new ATHs lay ahead.

I shall certainly be keeping an eye out on how Bitcoin develops, with such a scenario in mind, just as soon as this current minor downtrend is over and Bitcoin is back on the march.

blatchcorn

sr. member

Activity: 952

Merit: 281

What is your most likely scenario? Seems odd to post this and not the more probably outcome

zby

legendary

Activity: 1592

Merit: 1001

For such drawings to be valid you need to add either:

A) a dinosaur

or

B) a guy smoking a joint

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

As usual, insightful and original post from you. Might be called "permabear" again, but who cares, you made it clear that's not your "most likely scenarion" but an interesting observation.

My remarks:

Based on resistances, supports and common market patterns, I see a real chance we'll re-test 570-580 (1w BB), even 530 (1st fib level of entire bear market downtrend). Anything below that, and we will run into what I believe to be strong buying support starting from around 500.

I can somehow see how, once we approach a bearish territory like 500, momentum/panic will carry us further, despite that buying support, but your scenario isn't one of a quick flash crash to below 500, below 400 even, but a slow erosion to that level.

What I'm saying is: I see some room to go down, but for the fractal to play we would need to see an erosion of buying support we saw in late April/early May, and I don't see any signs for that. If anything, I expect buying support moved up on level, and instead of supporting 400 to 500, it now supports 500 to 600 (which still allows for dips into the lower end of that range).

Topic: My crazy fractal idea of what a downtrend resume would look like (IF IT DOES) (Read 2011 times)