This is not a predictionI'm not trying to be a bear here. In fact I'm currently long and hope that this doesn't happen. However, I couldn't help but share a fractal idea I had in my mind of how, if a downtrend were to resume, it could look like a fractal of the previous downtrend. The theory is as follows:
Notice how, in the Feb-May bear market, there were two sub-crashes, one was the 'gox-crash' from Feb-Mar, and the other was the 'China crash' from late Mar-Apr. Each sub-crash had their own resistance line which branched out from the main resistance line, which had a much lesser slope than the sub-resistance-lines. Each sub-crash then recovered in a weak way which eventually led into the next subcrash. Finally in May, the whole bear market supposedly ends, but it ends in a weak way.
Now what if, this whole Feb-May bear market, is actually a 'sub-crash' of yet a larger bear market. Feb-May is subcrash one and then in July-October will be subcrash two. July-October will have its own resistance line similar to the resistance in Feb-May, and both resistance lines will branch off of yet a larger parent resistance line with a lesser slope which spans the entire actual bear market of one year. Finally sometime in 2015 the bear market actually ends as the parent resistance line is broken.
There are two support lines in my chart: one is a line connected to a point starting in late 2012 and another is a line connected all the way back to the 2011 crash bounce/recovery. The Feb-May subcrash finds support against the first support line, which was not about to die without a fight. However, its weak trading action where the line is constantly being tested and there is low volume eventually gives way to it breaking and initiating the July-October subcrash as the weekly ichimoku cloud is breached. The entire bear market eventually finds its support on the original 2011 trendline.
Elliot waves???
Again I'm not saying or hoping that this will happen and it's just an idea for the math brains to think about.
