Topic: My decision on the two group buys of iBelink DM11g-10800mhs . (Read 1454 times)

it is both if you are looking to prop the price up.  here is why?

say cap is 100    and 1 new every day.

you buy the 1 or most of it people holding the older 100 can rush to sell due to your prop up.  since there is only 100  you can afford to buy from them .


cap is 10,000 and 1 new every day  you feed money into the 1 easy peasy but 5000 of the old looks to bail that is 50x the cost  to prop price.


better way is use actual numbers there is 110,000,000 in old coin with ZEC    NVIDIA is worth 52,000,000,000 billion or almost 475x  all the old coins   they could buy them all at current price fairly easy.

dash  is 660,000,000 old coins   nvidia is 78 times bigger   much harder to prop price is old holders sell off.

So  consider the wealth of all people that win with ZEC. 

INTEL WINS
NVIDIA WINS
even AMD WINS
ASUS
ASROCK
BIOSTAR
MSI
EVGA
SAPPHIRE
ZOTAC

list goes on  they can easily price the current daily price /production  and with ZEC the older pile is not scary as it is small.


compare to BTC   144 coins at 1500 = 2.16 million a day

but back pile 21 billion

All this talk of new miners and people going crazy is strangely similar to the grid seed fiasco right before LTC crashed....

The guy running DASH who is suspected of having 1/2 of the masternodes...would likely change the algorithm imho....not to mention the others...rather then watch
a mess of miners come in and mess that up

other x11 coin you could mine..but lots of coins when asic's came along simply said FU and changed the algorithm

I'd put that down as almost a sure bet

Also there were coins called SCRYPT-N ..when the knc titans came along they 'blew them up' too much hash for the coins to handle...therefore NO MORE Scrypt-N
coins anymore lol This was in 2014..so they went poof or they changed  the algorithm to protect the coin base and early adopters

This is not even getting into 51% attack if the equip is that good

anyway I suspect baikal will have the same speed out BEFORE the ibelink stuff is even delivered...probably less in price too....I also suspect this too (both asic miners)
will drive DASH nuts and have to change algorithm ...so may be interesting 6 months for x11 coins and asics

we will see this post will tell if I'm full of it or not in the future

later

brad

I think it is not the general market cap, it is the newly issued coins to be considered in support the price.

The iBelink DM11g made my spider sense tingling when the ROI calculation says under 30 days. I remember reading somewhere where someone said no one is going to sell gear that ROI in 2 months, or even 1 month for that matter. Has that been true and proven up to this date?

Even if the product is real and gets delivered, I can see iBelink pulling a BITMAIN with their Antminer L3+ of mining the gear, and driving up difficulty before you receive it.

Your integrity most be in the top 0.1 % on this forum, thanks much appreciated.

I did not know that the other Group had asked you to Escrow, had I known I would not have asked and put you in that position.  For that I apologize.

I do not disagree with Phi on  what is a better investment using the numbers as he uses them.  The difference in the members in our "Group" of guys is that we all have pretty sizable farms each running 100-500+ GPU's, LTC gear, X11 gear and Bitcoin gear.  We make the decision based on a number of items like making sure our gear is current or making sure we have a wide array of different algorithms covered. Essentially making sure we have diversity.

I think everyones situation is different and their risk tolerance is also different.

Having said that, I also think that the possible bad scenarios in a Group Buy for UNKNOWN and PRE-SALE items increases and compounds the problem and can create a very bad situation if things do not work out as planned.

?  I have zero idea and have not tried since I have 8 mobos and only 15 cards at the moment.  I have not tried.

Hey Phil,

Can you put 7 1080 ti on one motherboard like you can the rx470 & rx480?

I replaced an 1060 with an 1080 ti and sat it out.

and I stood to make 5000 usd in risk free escrow.

I want to be clear for all those considering their options as heavily as I have been.

I WANT ONE of these iBelink miners but I'm not in a position financially to risk that much cash right now with no guarantee of a return. It's just too high risk when you consider the history of what happens when you suddenly throw that much hash rate at a network.

Do I think these will be profitable?
-Yes

Do I have any reason to believe the manufacturer will not deliver these?
-No but we've seen history from other manufacturers that indicates otherwise.

Do I think they will have this much of a price premium by Batch 2?
-NOPE

Will I buy a Batch 2 miner?
-If Dash takes off and the premium price of this miner comes down according to where the difficulty levels out to, probably.

This iBelink miner release on the horizon is like getting a tip on a horse race that is a "sure thing"

...sadly there is nothing that is a "sure thing" in this world.

Will I miss the X11 boat and be kicking myself in the ass later for it?
-Maybe

Will I dodge a huge bullet that may cripple multiple large investors and leave a huge dent in the crypto world?
-Maybe

There are people in this world that just have faith that shit will work out, I don't have faith. I plan and strategize.

In Summary, I'm going to grab my popcorn and watch what happens. I hope for nothing but the best for all those willing to take that leap of faith on one or more of these.

In my opinion there is inadequate proof that it really exists.  That may change very soon if it really does exist but so far I am unconvinced.


+1 times 5000 dollars (or $6700 or whatever)

There is a very scam like element to the whole 2 and 3 day deadline business.  It is true that like the first avalons, those who are willing to take the biggest risk could potentially see the biggest reward, but seriously, the cryptocurrency space history is just littered with scams. 

but as weird as it may seem Zec has a market cap of 100 mill 

and dash has a market cap of 600 mill

so pumping or supporting zec  is 6x less expensive then pumping or supporting dash.

I know  in ten days I could look like a moron about zec but there are eth xmr skein and others.

That's the thing with these things, the manufacturer has no risk in this.

Buying one of these things is crazy considering you're going against large groups buying 100, your ROI on 1 when they have 100 will take alot more than 27 days

ZEC is crazy profitable right now but if you're a seasoned miner you know that you can't build on it for a long time, not even for 3 months.

But then again the 10800 Mhs X11 miner is even better, in fact it's a ridiculously profitable miner with a whole lot of smoke and mirrors surrounding it.

In fact, it's so profitable that currently it would only take 20 days to reach ROI, using the average, $6200 price. As I said before, let's just think for a second and ask who would sell such a crazy profitable miner instead of using them?

The answer is no sane person.

No self respecting miner I have spoken to even remotely considering buying one. A couple of promises and videos are not proof in this day and age and then there are the other red flags...

The amount of hashrate for the ibelink could be somewhat compared to the hashrate jump from an Antminer S3 to an Antminer S7, you can review the history of the difficulty to see what happened on the BTC side. If Dash's value increase, it may be worth while but if the value stays around where it is right now and difficulty spikes, people are going to lose a lot of money or spend years trying to make it back. I would say there is significantly less risk in just buying $6k of dash right now and letting it ride until after these things get released. If the price of Dash goes up, you're going to make way more profit than you would have buying the miner and then trying to ROI + Profit from the device.

All the calculators out there today say that 1 of these things in the world will ROI in about 27 days and make near $100k annually. Imagine 3.2TH worth of these things on the network, there is no way they will all make 100K anually a piece. Hell it would be amazing if they all ROI'd in 27 days but will the batch one owners really ROI before the difficulty spikes? Highly unlikely but who knows? Maybe. However, what I do know is if we see another L3+ event where the manufacturer turns them all on and starts mining with them for testing prior to shipping, the owners will never receive them until after the difficulty spike.

The only beneficiary I see here from the mass production of this miner in this much quantity in the span of 3 months, is the manufacturer of the miner. The buyers may likely spend years trying to ROI these things. If the manufacturer doesn't deliver the product on time or they deliver a product with a high failure rate, the equation gets even worse.

Remember part of the alternate investment includes 20 coins of dash.

So if dash moves up huge you have 20 coins.
Let's also remember you can buy a later batch.
Which may be low cost not higher cost.

I see higher risk I struggle to see higher reward.

1 year real warranty for the gpu rig at worst. 90 day warranty with ASIC = higher risk.

I guess you can argue every gpu coin crashes on day 100 and dash whales on day 100.

And even though you make out some what with. The twenty hedge  coins the miner ultimately mines 45 coins.

But heck getting the gpu miner working by this Friday and having twenty dash in your wallet is a huge heAd start over buying the ASIC.

90 days of hope to getting the gear is tough.

Another point to take into consideration is that we have NO proof this miner has worked 1 month or 2 month mining at 10ghs.
Just yesterday it was down to 7ghs for most part of the day until they turn it off and hasn't been online yet and the current data pool only showed it had been working for 3 days.

By the time this machines are done the manufactory will probably mine the shit out of them for a few days and will drive the difficult so high that you won't be making not even near what those calculators are telling you toda. I agree 100% with phill, better to put your money on zec and eth miners than risking buying this.
I'm out..

I'm interested in anyone's input on this as well. I agree with Phil's math for sure, but what if you were able to extend that model to a year from now? The iBelink definitely seems more profitable, so the question is, given enough time, would it surpass total profit of Phil's zec rig? I'm not sure if anyone can predict that... Seems like a classic higher-risk higher-reward scenario. Very difficult to weigh the two.

I appreciate Phil's input. However he didn't seem to include the following numbers

The 4200sol/s he calculated from the zec rig would make about $40usd per day at current profitability.

the ibelink, at just 10ghs would make like over about $270 per day at current profitability...

I understand the profitabilities change and especially over a 90 day period while waiting for shipping. I also understand the difficulty will go up a lot with the increased dash network hashrate.. Phil used a doubling in the network difficulty but lets say it tripled (can we actually calculate how high the difficulty and profitibilty will change?) thats still 270/3 = $90usd a day

he brought up other valid points like the risks involved but i just wanted to throw out these possible numbers


I'm now questioning whether i'm even interested in the preorder anymore... ***is it possible to calculate how much the difficulty and therefore the profitability of dash (at current dash/btc value) will be affected by the 3000 or so 10k+ ghs ibelink miners?***