Topic: My decision on the two group buys of iBelink DM11g-10800mhs . - page 2. (Read 1454 times)
Thanks for your take phill
Note Left this open for comments. without mod privileges . So feel free to write what you all will.
If I get pm's on this from any and all you are agreeing that I can quote them in this thread.
As mining community with small rigs and big farms all able to post here please feel free to post.
If I get pm's on this from any and all you are agreeing that I can quote them in this thread.
As mining community with small rigs and big farms all able to post here please feel free to post.
I made this decision purely on ROI math.
both buys have the same 90 wait from purchase to shipping.
I did multiple ROI estimates on the 5700 and the 6750 group buys.
I was asked by bittawm and later kilo17 about assisting the group buys.
This post and thread is not about the character of either bottom to kilo17.
For the record I believe they can be trusted .
Here is a quick write up of why
I WILL NOT ESCROW OR BE INVOLVED WITH EITHER GROUP BUY
The 90 day wait from payment to shipping is far too long. --- Single biggest reason I do not like either deal.
Since I sometimes sell gear I will not sell any gear on forum for 90 days as this opinion is not to justify buying used gpus from me
The breakdown is posted here.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1877588.180
I am doing a purely mathematical comparison of the two deals from the two of them against buying and building a zec ming farm with 1080ti's.
I know both guys fairly well and have like both of them. So I won't pass judgement on whether on person is better then the other.
But I can crunch the numbers and see if spending 6k to build a zec farm works better then either deal.
I will present this in a separate thread. Later today.
This is exactly what I've done, I found that 2x ZEC Miners I could build would make the money back in the time it takes to even ship those miners. It's highly unlikely I'll buy one of them at this point, too much risk because if they do what bitmain did and turn them on after they receive them for testing, cause the hash/difficulty spike and THEN ship them out. Batch 1 owners would get screwed.
I spent part of last night and all day today crunching numbers.
kilo17 deal is cheaper then bittawm
bottom line both deals are bad.
purely on math .
I assume both deals are honest
I assume you get the gear 90 days to the day after payment.
I assume dash goes 2x price to match 2x diff increase.
lets say you do one from each cause you like both guys. In my case a really do like both people.
easy numbers are 5700 + 6700 = 12400 average price would be 6200.
what can I do with 6200 right now today.
here is what I can do. I can buy
six of these at 676 each or 4056 I would get 1% off in the form of ebucks. so net is 4016 use paypal six months to pay
http://www.ebay.com/itm/ZOTAC-ZT-P10810A-10P-GeForce-GTX-1080-Ti-Founders-Edition-11GB-GDDR5X-352-bit-/172587640269?
a mobo, risers, ssd ,ram ,cpu, psu = 384 high number on purpose so I spend 4400 after ebucks and have 6 months to pay this.
I also have 1800 left over So I buy dash 20 coins.
So I have a 6 card 1080 ti miner doing about 4200h of zec pulling say 1400 watts. that is 34 kwatts a day or about 3.40 usd in power. and earnings are about 33.33 usd
so fast forward 90 days.
I spent 306 in power and earned 3000 which is a net of 2694 .
if dash did 2x in price the 1800 or 20 coins is now 3600 a gain of 1800
the paypal bill is not due until 180 days. it was for 4400
4400
-2694
______
1706 still owe
3600 since dash did double in price
____
1894 ahead. in 90 days if dash does double.
in all cases that dash rises in price I make some money since I purchased 1800 in coins of the seed money of 6200.
at 90 days with group buy I might have the working unit.
If dash dropped in price and diff did 2x I am dead basically zero chance of break even.
If dash dropped in price and I do the gpu build and some dash coins. I have 20 coins even if they went from 90 to 45 that is still 900 usd.
and I still have the 6 card gpu rig. that I don't have to pay any of the 4400 I owe for another 90 days.
So how can I advise anyone that either group buy makes sense. when the 4400 gpu rig 1800 dash coin deal is far safer? the answer is I have to say no to either group buy. since the gpu rig + coin purchase truly seems to be better. With income stream starting asap. vs waiting 90 days for income to come in.
IN Every case I can come up with I simply do not see the reward for the risk's asked in either group buy.
I do not see many scenario's where these groups if fully successful. Are better then building a six card nvidia 1080 ti rig for about 4400-4425 usd and buying 20 coins of dash at 90 each for 1800 this totals 6225 which is the average price of the two group buys.
Even if you just use the lower number of 5700 offered by kilo17 the deal is not as good as buying coins and build a six card nvidia 1080 ti rig.
So for me to escort or push either group I do not see that I should do this.
these group buys will 2x the diff if they go through = fact
dash would need to 2x its price for deal to stand a chance.
even if seller/builder delivers on aug 2 and dash is 2x the current price the dealer has said they will sell more gear. So I am not going to escrow either deal.
I have done this I have cancelled 2 Avalon 6 deals due to the prices not working.
It is not in my power to do anything about either deal other then to say
A) I will not escrow them
B) I will not buy in to them
C) 87-97 days to wait is too long.
D) I trust kilo17, I trust bitawm
E) I do not want to escrow either deal
F) The 2x the diff with sale of this item. seems real as the sunrise
My choice will be building some more rigs for zec very soon.
@ bitawm
@ kilo17
I would not do the deals 90 risk of waiting.
And if it all works out what stops builder from doing a super big batch making all the batch 1 gear drop like a rock.
think gridseed blades.
My cavat I was fully wrong about buying the balki gear back in January .
If I am wrong here dash is going to 2x or 3x price. just buy some coins now.
both buys have the same 90 wait from purchase to shipping.
I did multiple ROI estimates on the 5700 and the 6750 group buys.
I was asked by bittawm and later kilo17 about assisting the group buys.
This post and thread is not about the character of either bottom to kilo17.
For the record I believe they can be trusted .
Here is a quick write up of why
I WILL NOT ESCROW OR BE INVOLVED WITH EITHER GROUP BUY
The 90 day wait from payment to shipping is far too long. --- Single biggest reason I do not like either deal.
Since I sometimes sell gear I will not sell any gear on forum for 90 days as this opinion is not to justify buying used gpus from me
The breakdown is posted here.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1877588.180
I am doing a purely mathematical comparison of the two deals from the two of them against buying and building a zec ming farm with 1080ti's.
I know both guys fairly well and have like both of them. So I won't pass judgement on whether on person is better then the other.
But I can crunch the numbers and see if spending 6k to build a zec farm works better then either deal.
I will present this in a separate thread. Later today.
This is exactly what I've done, I found that 2x ZEC Miners I could build would make the money back in the time it takes to even ship those miners. It's highly unlikely I'll buy one of them at this point, too much risk because if they do what bitmain did and turn them on after they receive them for testing, cause the hash/difficulty spike and THEN ship them out. Batch 1 owners would get screwed.
I spent part of last night and all day today crunching numbers.
kilo17 deal is cheaper then bittawm
bottom line both deals are bad.
purely on math .
I assume both deals are honest
I assume you get the gear 90 days to the day after payment.
I assume dash goes 2x price to match 2x diff increase.
lets say you do one from each cause you like both guys. In my case a really do like both people.
easy numbers are 5700 + 6700 = 12400 average price would be 6200.
what can I do with 6200 right now today.
here is what I can do. I can buy
six of these at 676 each or 4056 I would get 1% off in the form of ebucks. so net is 4016 use paypal six months to pay
http://www.ebay.com/itm/ZOTAC-ZT-P10810A-10P-GeForce-GTX-1080-Ti-Founders-Edition-11GB-GDDR5X-352-bit-/172587640269?
a mobo, risers, ssd ,ram ,cpu, psu = 384 high number on purpose so I spend 4400 after ebucks and have 6 months to pay this.
I also have 1800 left over So I buy dash 20 coins.
So I have a 6 card 1080 ti miner doing about 4200h of zec pulling say 1400 watts. that is 34 kwatts a day or about 3.40 usd in power. and earnings are about 33.33 usd
so fast forward 90 days.
I spent 306 in power and earned 3000 which is a net of 2694 .
if dash did 2x in price the 1800 or 20 coins is now 3600 a gain of 1800
the paypal bill is not due until 180 days. it was for 4400
4400
-2694
______
1706 still owe
3600 since dash did double in price
____
1894 ahead. in 90 days if dash does double.
in all cases that dash rises in price I make some money since I purchased 1800 in coins of the seed money of 6200.
at 90 days with group buy I might have the working unit.
If dash dropped in price and diff did 2x I am dead basically zero chance of break even.
If dash dropped in price and I do the gpu build and some dash coins. I have 20 coins even if they went from 90 to 45 that is still 900 usd.
and I still have the 6 card gpu rig. that I don't have to pay any of the 4400 I owe for another 90 days.
So how can I advise anyone that either group buy makes sense. when the 4400 gpu rig 1800 dash coin deal is far safer? the answer is I have to say no to either group buy. since the gpu rig + coin purchase truly seems to be better. With income stream starting asap. vs waiting 90 days for income to come in.
I do not see many scenario's where these groups if fully successful. Are better then building a six card nvidia 1080 ti rig for about 4400-4425 usd and buying 20 coins of dash at 90 each for 1800 this totals 6225 which is the average price of the two group buys.
Even if you just use the lower number of 5700 offered by kilo17 the deal is not as good as buying coins and build a six card nvidia 1080 ti rig.
So for me to escort or push either group I do not see that I should do this.
these group buys will 2x the diff if they go through = fact
dash would need to 2x its price for deal to stand a chance.
even if seller/builder delivers on aug 2 and dash is 2x the current price the dealer has said they will sell more gear. So I am not going to escrow either deal.
I have done this I have cancelled 2 Avalon 6 deals due to the prices not working.
It is not in my power to do anything about either deal other then to say
A) I will not escrow them
B) I will not buy in to them
C) 87-97 days to wait is too long.
D) I trust kilo17, I trust bitawm
E) I do not want to escrow either deal
F) The 2x the diff with sale of this item. seems real as the sunrise
My choice will be building some more rigs for zec very soon.
@ bitawm
@ kilo17
I would not do the deals 90 risk of waiting.
And if it all works out what stops builder from doing a super big batch making all the batch 1 gear drop like a rock.
think gridseed blades.
My cavat I was fully wrong about buying the balki gear back in January .
If I am wrong here dash is going to 2x or 3x price. just buy some coins now.
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