My Football Gambling System: A Betting Experiment - page 2.

Pmalek

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Quote from: Trofo on March 01, 2021, 05:41:59 AM

Basically you are looking for low scoring leagues with constant level of quality among many teams. Most of South America is good but I am finding most of my draws from following leagues: Uruguay, Colombia, Egypt, Costa Rica, Panama, South Africa, Morocco, Iran, French National, Tunisia, Spanish second league and Mexico.

The French National League is one competition I had on my mind, but since this is the third division in France, I wasn't sure if there are some maximal betting limits applied by bookies for this league. I like the French Ligue 2 for draws as well as the Mexican league that is without a doubt the strongest football league in all of South America.

Quote from: madnessteat on March 01, 2021, 11:38:18 PM

I look forward to seeing the results of your new modified strategy. I have one more question - when do you plan to start testing it and how soon will we be able to compare its performance with the last strategy?

I will probably start this week or in the following week.

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Quote from: Lorence.xD on March 02, 2021, 04:21:28 AM

I don't think luck is the word when you mention dice, I would rather go for probability and statistics, we just can't comprehend the probability on where would the dice will land so we think that it is luck when there is a math behind everything. I do agree, we have our own ways to play and our belief also counts.

You can't use probability and statistics on events that are not connected as is the case with dice. There is no math in the world that can tell you which number is more likely to roll in the next dice throw, each throw is a separate event. Yes it will all fall inside nominal values when you have large enough number of events but that does not help you when betting. Local results can and often will be slanted heavy to one side and there is no telling when normalization will commence.

That is also the reason why every martingale strategy will get busted sooner or later unless you have infinite bank and no betting limits.

Lorence.xD

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Quote from: bitterguy28 on March 01, 2021, 07:44:59 AM

Quote from: Lorence.xD on March 01, 2021, 06:49:27 AM

~

I think it is better to mention that depend on what gambling are you dealing mate , In this thread it is soccer/football that yeah can be used skills and Psychology but in other gambling games like Dice or Slots? maybe it is Luck that will make you win?
anyway we have our own believe and strategy and what i have is depend in which game i will play.

I don't think luck is the word when you mention dice, I would rather go for probability and statistics, we just can't comprehend the probability on where would the dice will land so we think that it is luck when there is a math behind everything. I do agree, we have our own ways to play and our belief also counts.

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Quote from: Pmalek on February 28, 2021, 02:55:50 AM

The scary thing is that it can quickly get out of hands and if you are applying it to a few different teams at the same time, having 13 straight losses can happen. I wouldn't be interested trying this particular system with real money because of that. I will modify it a bit more and come back with a new system also taking into consideration Trofo's suggestion about increasing the odds by x1.5 instead of x2.

I look forward to seeing the results of your new modified strategy. I have one more question - when do you plan to start testing it and how soon will we be able to compare its performance with the last strategy?

Saint-loup

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Quote from: Pmalek on March 01, 2021, 05:23:04 AM

Quote from: Saint-loup on February 28, 2021, 02:05:00 PM

It was a casino game? What was the house edge of the casino game?

I am not sure if this question was for me or someone else. I was not taking about casino games.

No I was replying to madnessteat who was talking about his "13 losses in a row" at one "game", but the same philosophy applies to betting, there is also a house edge that should be taken into account : it's called the bookmaker's overround. If you convert odds into their implied probabilities (eg 1/odds x 100 for decimal odds) and you add up them you will get a result above 100%, that's the house edge of the bookie.

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Quote from: Lorence.xD on March 01, 2021, 06:49:27 AM

Quote from: maydna on February 23, 2021, 05:21:42 AM

Quote from: Lorence.xD on February 22, 2021, 12:15:50 AM

~

That is normal because luck will only come to the right person, making many people can't win on many rounds. The result will vary for every people who use the same strategy. Perhaps, some people can win while others will lose as we don't know where the luck will come. If luck comes, people can win by using many strategies and not just the strategy from @OP. But the system is hard to work for many people as they still need luck to win the match. Perhaps, people need to experiment to see what strategy they can win, so they will know that every gambler's strategy will not be the same.

I don't believe in luck, I am more of a statistics and psychology person when it comes to gambling. Luck is just fancy term for probability and coincidence, they were just at the right place and at the right time. Humans are so obsessed with finding patterns and so am I and I think that if I believe in luck, that would mean that there is no pattern which is close to impossible. I believe that they should just analyze the game more in-depth but enough to not be obsessive about it, relying on luck is not a good thing.

I think it is better to mention that depend on what gambling are you dealing mate , In this thread it is soccer/football that yeah can be used skills and Psychology but in other gambling games like Dice or Slots? maybe it is Luck that will make you win?
anyway we have our own believe and strategy and what i have is depend in which game i will play.

Lorence.xD

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Quote from: maydna on February 23, 2021, 05:21:42 AM

Quote from: Lorence.xD on February 22, 2021, 12:15:50 AM

~

That is normal because luck will only come to the right person, making many people can't win on many rounds. The result will vary for every people who use the same strategy. Perhaps, some people can win while others will lose as we don't know where the luck will come. If luck comes, people can win by using many strategies and not just the strategy from @OP. But the system is hard to work for many people as they still need luck to win the match. Perhaps, people need to experiment to see what strategy they can win, so they will know that every gambler's strategy will not be the same.

I don't believe in luck, I am more of a statistics and psychology person when it comes to gambling. Luck is just fancy term for probability and coincidence, they were just at the right place and at the right time. Humans are so obsessed with finding patterns and so am I and I think that if I believe in luck, that would mean that there is no pattern which is close to impossible. I believe that they should just analyze the game more in-depth but enough to not be obsessive about it, relying on luck is not a good thing.

Trofo

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Quote from: Pmalek on March 01, 2021, 05:23:04 AM

Quote from: Trofo on February 28, 2021, 09:12:19 AM

@Pmalek
If you decide to try it please post some stats for this one even if sample ends up being small.

Yeah, I will do that. I need to look at a few football leagues that historically have plenty of draws. Does anyone have any suggestions and does a particular league spring to your mind where you have noticed a big number of draws overall?

Ask and you shall receive Grin

Basically you are looking for low scoring leagues with constant level of quality among many teams. Most of South America is good but I am finding most of my draws from following leagues: Uruguay, Colombia, Egypt, Costa Rica, Panama, South Africa, Morocco, Iran, French National, Tunisia, Spanish second league and Mexico. You can play most of the games from these leagues with that system of 1.5x your stake and finish with a profit.

I was using all that when I was actively looking for draws, if you are content with one or two games per day I actually prefer to go top leagues and high stake games. For instance Chelsea - United yesterday was a perfect example.

I actually stopped betting on draws simply because I upped my stakes and I am watching all the games I bet on. It is very difficult to watch the game where you need draw to hit. I can't properly cheer, you are hoping for 0:0 and it just ruins my experience. That is why I placed a high stake bet United x2 yesterday and then I can properly watch, cheer and collect profits

Pmalek

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Quote from: Trofo on February 28, 2021, 09:12:19 AM

@Pmalek
If you decide to try it please post some stats for this one even if sample ends up being small.

Yeah, I will do that. I need to look at a few football leagues that historically have plenty of draws. Does anyone have any suggestions and does a particular league spring to your mind where you have noticed a big number of draws overall?

Quote from: Saint-loup on February 28, 2021, 02:05:00 PM

It was a casino game? What was the house edge of the casino game?

I am not sure if this question was for me or someone else. I was not taking about casino games.

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Quote from: madnessteat on February 27, 2021, 10:26:30 AM

Quote from: Pmalek on February 18, 2021, 01:54:15 PM

Total profit made at the end of the experiment: $1,162.29

Your slightly modified Martingale betting strategy is paying off. Congratulations to you.

I wonder what's the maximum bet you're willing to make? I once lost a big sum playing Martingale, that's why I'm asking. If I'm not mistaken I had 13 losses in a row and my deposit was just not enough to continue the game.

It was a casino game? What was the house edge of the casino game? Because some casinos take a house edge of more than 5%. That means you are getting one losing round(ie unwinnable round) for 20 rounds. In this case it's hard to not get at least one losing round in a such long streak.

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Quote from: Stalker22 on February 28, 2021, 07:51:32 AM

I would suggest you consider the Labouchere (or split martingale) betting system as well. I think it might be appropriate for your betting experiment.

Labouchere seems overly complicated system for me and I would never use it on something where there are days between events. It is made to offset house edge on stuff where odds should be 50:50 which sports betting definitely in not. Maybe I just never got the hang of it.

@Pmalek
If you decide to try it please post some stats for this one even if sample ends up being small.

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Quote from: Pmalek on February 28, 2021, 02:55:50 AM

I will modify it a bit more and come back with a new system also taking into consideration Trofo's suggestion about increasing the odds by x1.5 instead of x2.

I would suggest you consider the Labouchere (or split martingale) betting system as well. I think it might be appropriate for your betting experiment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labouch%C3%A8re_system

Quote

The theory behind this Labouchère system is that, because the player is crossing two numbers off of the list (win) for every number added (loss) the player can complete the list, (crossing out all numbers) thereby winning the desired amount even though the player does not need to win as much as expected for this to occur.
...
Theoretically, the player needs to have his proposition come at least 33.34% to eventually complete the list.

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Quote from: madnessteat on February 27, 2021, 10:26:30 AM

I wonder what's the maximum bet you're willing to make? I once lost a big sum playing Martingale, that's why I'm asking. If I'm not mistaken I had 13 losses in a row and my deposit was just not enough to continue the game.

The scary thing is that it can quickly get out of hands and if you are applying it to a few different teams at the same time, having 13 straight losses can happen. I wouldn't be interested trying this particular system with real money because of that. I will modify it a bit more and come back with a new system also taking into consideration Trofo's suggestion about increasing the odds by x1.5 instead of x2.

madnessteat

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Quote from: Pmalek on February 18, 2021, 01:54:15 PM

Total profit made at the end of the experiment: $1,162.29

Your slightly modified Martingale betting strategy is paying off. Congratulations to you.

I wonder what's the maximum bet you're willing to make? I once lost a big sum playing Martingale, that's why I'm asking. If I'm not mistaken I had 13 losses in a row and my deposit was just not enough to continue the game.

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Quote from: imstillthebest on February 27, 2021, 12:41:17 AM

Quote from: Saint-loup on February 26, 2021, 11:48:00 PM

Quote from: paxmao on February 26, 2021, 05:35:35 AM

The basis of the system is a martingale which is not a good start at all. It could potentially work if you can slightly change the odds in your favor by means of a superior knowledge of the sport or teams, in which case you would not need to apply a martingale anyway.

This sound like a loosing system, although you were lucky.

I think it's a pretty risky strategy but I wouldn't say it's a losing system. It's not a real martingale since the game isn't totally random like a casino gamble game. In fact it's rather unlikely for a middle ranking team to lose 4 or 5 matches away in a row (a streak with no draw is more likely to happen though)

agree @paxmao for starters they can bet normally in their own before trying advanced techniques like martingale .

we have different types of martingale and martingale can also be applied in smaller odds but with bigger base bets because they are easily winnable and your win will be small if you dont up your starting bets .
.

if this is a loosing system he wont post it because nobody wants to loose but in gambling , a loosing bet can sometimes become a winner if it got lucky .

Yes I agree with you but even with smaller odds, the total amount of money you're putting at risk will remain the same at the end because your martingale will win and stop more quickly for each streak but your stakes will have to be bigger for the same prize.

Pmalek

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Quote from: imstillthebest on February 27, 2021, 12:41:17 AM

we have different types of martingale and martingale can also be applied in smaller odds but with bigger base bets because they are easily winnable and your win will be small if you dont up your starting bets.

You can decide to not look at the odds and always bet on a particular outcome having a target profit in your mind. For example, you make it your goal to make a profit of $10 (or whatever) on Nijmegen every time they play and win. But for this strategy, you need an even bigger bankroll than with the Martingale I experimented with because the odds will be low from time to time. You need to keep increasing your stake also considering the losses you made in the previous matchdays.

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Quote from: Saint-loup on February 26, 2021, 11:48:00 PM

Quote from: paxmao on February 26, 2021, 05:35:35 AM

The basis of the system is a martingale which is not a good start at all. It could potentially work if you can slightly change the odds in your favor by means of a superior knowledge of the sport or teams, in which case you would not need to apply a martingale anyway.

This sound like a loosing system, although you were lucky.

I think it's a pretty risky strategy but I wouldn't say it's a losing system. It's not a real martingale since the game isn't totally random like a casino gamble game. In fact it's rather unlikely for a middle ranking team to lose 4 or 5 matches away in a row (a streak with no draw is more likely to happen though)

agree @paxmao for starters they can bet normally in their own before trying advanced techniques like martingale .

we have different types of martingale and martingale can also be applied in smaller odds but with bigger base bets because they are easily winnable and your win will be small if you dont up your starting bets .
.

if this is a loosing system he wont post it because nobody wants to loose but in gambling , a loosing bet can sometimes become a winner if it got lucky .

Saint-loup

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Quote from: paxmao on February 26, 2021, 05:35:35 AM

The basis of the system is a martingale which is not a good start at all. It could potentially work if you can slightly change the odds in your favor by means of a superior knowledge of the sport or teams, in which case you would not need to apply a martingale anyway.

This sound like a loosing system, although you were lucky.

I think it's a pretty risky strategy but I wouldn't say it's a losing system. It's not a real martingale since the game isn't totally random like a casino gamble game. In fact it's rather unlikely for a middle ranking team to lose 4 or 5 matches away in a row (a streak with no draw is more likely to happen though)

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The basis of the system is a martingale which is not a good start at all. It could potentially work if you can slightly change the odds in your favor by means of a superior knowledge of the sport or teams, in which case you would not need to apply a martingale anyway.

This sound like a loosing system, although you were lucky.

Pmalek

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Quote from: wxa7115 on February 25, 2021, 03:30:09 PM

Just take a look at the OP, the system he is using is without a doubt interesting and it has a lot of potential and yet according to him he missed eight bets in a row with one team and in many cases that could be enough to wipe out a newbie that doesn't know how to administer his bankroll.

And that is just for one team. I made the experiment with 4 teams. Imagine if the other teams had losing streaks lasting a few weeks as well during the same period? That could well be 15-20 lost matches in a row.

Quote from: ?? on ??

I had a slightly different system, every time I lost, I doubled the bet amount. But I bet on a different sport. And this system is good enough.

In terms of winning probability, both systems are similar if there can be 1 out of 3 possible outcomes of the match.

Topic: My Football Gambling System: A Betting Experiment - page 2. (Read 676 times)