Topic: My Football Gambling System: A Betting Experiment - page 4. (Read 676 times)

Raising money by half instead of doubling gets you smaller profits but the up side is that after you have lost 10 bets in a row with doubling you have to make 25600$ bet and with raising them by 1.5 you have to make just 1950$ bet, starting bet 50$ in both cases. That mitigates a lot of the problems with martingale system and makes it much more feasible in the long run at least for me.

That is another example how fast martingale systems spin out of control and the reason I am not using them and would never recommend them to anybody. That being said I often double my stake after loosing first ticket in the day but if I lose that one I just take the losses and start fresh next day.

That's very similar to what I wanted to try next. But I didn't consider raising the odds by 1.5, I was thinking of doubling it in a league that statistically has plenty of draws. Thanks for the tip about raising the stake money only by half. I will have to check where it can be applied.

All the odds you see in the 2nd post are for the outcomes I wanted to bet on. It's not the odd of the actual result.

For example:

Round 6
Paris FC vs Le Havre 3:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

The 3.00 odds wasn't the odds on Paris FC to win the match. Those odds were offered for the draw.

It's very risky and a lot can go wrong, but wow, in your experiment you made an amazing profit! It doesn't mean that this approach would work again, I think, but it's a nice case study. However, you didn't put actual money into it and thus didn't really turn $3 into $1k if I understand correctly. That's the only sad thing about it.
And you were "betting" on the outcome in these rounds, right? It's just that you write the score of every match, but the odds are for the 1x2 outcome, correct?

You should be fine with playing any martingale or any other system as long as you are betting on reputable leagues. You could run into problems if you are betting let's say on Croatian 3rd league since your stake will get limited on most sites. And those limits could ruin your martingale after doubling the stake many times.

If you chose top league like Premier League I am sure you will run out of money much sooner than any reputable site would even think to limit your stakes

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@Pmalek

I actually have one system which works quite well but still it is not something I would recommend for long term. All those systems will work well for some time and you will get modest profits and then it will liquidate you once and you will end with less money than you started with.

It is modified martingale when you bet just on draws and instead of doubling on your stake you raise it by half. You are fine as long as odds are above 3 but you can actually often find odds closer to 4 which helps a lot to raise the profits. Raising your stake by coefficient of 1.5 instead of 2 gives you much more leeway to lose the games without breaking the bank.

You can employ the system on single team like you did and chase that draws, or simply chose few likely games each day and play them in order.

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I don't like Asian bookies since they often make some games void which are paid out normally in all other bookies. Some of them have really strict rules when odds are changing and immediately void your bets. Maybe things changed I have not used them for quite some time.

@tyKiwanuka
Thanks for the list. I took a look at the first link you provided. I recognized Sbobet and Matchbook and I have played on these sites in the past without needing the services of an agent. Maybe things have changed in the meantime.

I was just making assumptions, I don't know if they pay that much attention. But they could notice that you are doubling your stakes on the same teams and for the same type of events, for example. tyKiwanuka says it's not something worth worrying about, so let's trust him that he is right.

Seems like a good strategy, none of the ones I've tried (including Martingale, but not in sports) worked for me. But yours turned out to be effective, probably, because apart from pure luck and doubling after each loss you take odds into consideration combined with the probability of winning, which is why you choose draw and away win.

About that

Can they actually do that? How will the sportsbooks know and, more importantly, how can they prove, that this wasn't your real well-thought choice and you're using patterns? Maybe to avoid this one can select teams from a slightly different position each time (e.g. one time you take 6th and 7th, and the other 5th and 6th, something like that). Surely, that'll shift the odds, but not significantly, so I think that still might work.

Well, they are a bit different to access than your normal bookie nowadays, i.e. the only possibility for the majority of gamblers is via an agent. You can then either make a single account with these bookies, or use some tool the agent provides. Here is some information about it, if you are interested (I am not getting anything for this): https://betinasia.com/black/

This is all fiat-based, though you can deposit with crypto. And KYC is needed at the agent, so it has its disadvantages as well.

Dafabet is an asian bookie, which you can access without an agent: https://www.dafabet.com/en

All in all, this is really for the more advanced and/or high-staking bettors; for most casual/recreational ones, it's probably not worth the effort and the sometimes inconvenience of having a middle-man. And by inconvenience I don't mean your money not being safe, but rather that everything is done via the agent (deposits/withdrawals/communication in case of dispute etc.) - can be weary.

That is the flaw with a system like this. You have to wait otherwise it won't work.

Probably not. Due to the things you mentioned yourself. If I had placed bets on Sochaux, I would have needed a total of $1,533 just to place that last winning bet in round #14 that brought me profit. Before that, 8 matches in a row didn't go the way I would have wanted. Imagine if the bookie limited or blocked my account before round #14, and I had no way to bet on that match? Let's say I get my account unblocked in time for round #15. That match was a loss too! Now I need over $3,000 for the next round. The risks are simply too big.  

I might consider a different approach. I have something else on my mind, but I have to check a couple of leagues to see where it could be applied in the best way.  

Thanks mate!

That's good to know. To be honest I always thought bookies will ban or limit you if you attempt something like this.

I have never played at any Asian bookies. Which of them are good?

Nice thread (we need more of those in here), I always like to follow these things. Not a fan of Martingale, but people are always tempted to try it, because what can go wrong ? You just need stamina, infinite money and nerves of steel I would think it works in (football) betting, but only if you start with very low stakes, very low. But then again you will win very low amounts as well and that is turning off people then again. You always want the big money, eh ? And it has to be safe of course.


I wouldn't worry with that. Since there is no working betting system (other than value), every bookie will happily allow you to play any system you wish on their site. And you shouldn't only use one or two bookmakers for such system anyway. Then you will also not run into the following issue:


First of all, you should always shop for the best odds, having accounts/money in a lot of sites. This is especially important, if you are on a losing streak and your stakes must get higher and higher to compensate earlier losses - a 3.00 or 3.10 makes a huge difference here already. This will always lead you to the big (asian) bookies sooner or later, because they have the best odds and they also have the highest limits. With some agents tools (like Mollybet), you can place big bets with one click in multiple asian books. If that still isn't enough, you can go to Tier2 bookies and continue placing there with lower limits/lower odds.

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I would probably track some more teams/leagues and don't jump in right away, but let them go on a streak of not drawing at home or winning away and then start the Martingale. Could save you some money or not let your stakes get very high too soon. But not sure

An interesting game system, but even with small stakes requires strong will and perseverance, and of course a lot of money. It is impressive that you made a profit after the experiment, but when betting on Sochaux in round 14 you have a stake of as much as $768.00.

I personally have never experienced the martingale system, honestly the idea of doubling the stakes after each loss was too much for my wallet - because I always played for high stakes. Now that you’ve tried the method with no real stakes, will you perhaps try something similar for real money?

I am liking what I see regarding the numbers.I am strongly astonished to see that teams in lower leagues perform this better.I am also impressed with your system which strangely enough seems to be working good.I am thinking to copy this with lower bets and see how it goes but I am not that patient to wait when the selected teams.

Applying martingale in real events is different from an apply in the casino, betting and losing 10 games in teams that are in the middle of the table would be very very unlucky.
I liked your system... usually, peoples bet on whoever is at the top and the profits of these teams are usually lower since the victory results are more predictable.
Your simulation resulted in a good profit, it really is a good strategy that is worth using if applied carefully.

Good luck!

Like I mentioned in the opening post, I haven't placed these bets. I just documented what could have happened if I did, and what the overall profit/loss would look like. I don't like playing around with systems like this, but I know that some people do.

Regarding your question about online bookies, I prefer betting with FortuneJack and Sportsbet.io. I have never had any issues with either of those except the occasional security check on FJ. That is normal, so I have no reason to change.

It requires a huge bankroll especially when you are betting on multiple teams. In theory, you can lose like 10 matches in a row per team. To continue the system, you are going to need thousands and tens of thousands of $.  

I wish you luck, I don't remember ever seeing a system that was that straightforward, however I'm worried about the fact that you are using martingale and that is because as we know martingale is a system that sooner or later will make you lose money, if your system is truly profitable you will not need any kind of progression for this to eventually show up.

We must remember that even with a winning system if you have subpar skills when it comes to managing your money then you will lose money, as such using martingale is in my mind always a mistake but it is even a bigger one when you actually have an edge because the only thing that you need to become a loser is just a little bit of bad luck, and that happens to everyone and by the time that you realize your mistake it is too late and there is nothing you can do about it.

Nice, your systems seems to be working one and you made a money with it. What online platform do you use to bet?  If you don't have a personal soft spot for any of them, I would suggest you to try the p2p betting bot developed for Obyte client.  I made a ^{simple guide} showing in picture how to use it when betting on sporting event. I think you will like to bet with Obyte's Sport Betting Bot. If you don't want to install Obyte client to interact with  betting bot you may try its ^{Web frontier}.

Paris FC

Round 1
Chambly vs Paris FC 0:3
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$9.75

Round 2
Paris FC vs Valenciennes 1:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 3
Amiens vs Paris FC 1:2
Odds: 3.50
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$21.00

Round 4
Paris FC vs Nancy 0:2
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 5
Niort vs Paris FC 2:2
Odds: 2.60
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 6
Paris FC vs Le Havre 3:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 7
Paris FC vs Pau FC 1:0
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: -$24.00

Round 8
Chateauroux vs Paris FC 1:2
Odds: 2.30
Stake: $48.00
Profit/Loss: +$110.40

Round 9
Paris FC vs Caen 3:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 10
Dunkerque vs Paris FC 0:1
Odds: 1.95
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$11.70

Round 11
Paris FC vs Auxerre 0:3
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 12
Grenoble vs Paris FC 0:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 13
Played against Sochaux: 0:0

Round 14
Troyes vs Paris FC 3:1
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 15
Paris FC vs Rodez 1:1
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: +$79.20

Round 16
Clermont vs Paris FC 3:2
Odds: 3.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 17
Paris FC vs Guingamp 3:2
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 18
Toulouse vs Paris FC 1:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 19
Paris FC vs AC Ajaccio 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: +$72.00

Round 20
Valenciennes vs Paris FC 2:0
Odds: 1.95
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 21
Paris FC vs Amiens 4:2
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 22
Nancy vs Paris FC 1:1
 Odds: 2.15
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 23
Paris FC vs Niort 3:3
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: +$86.40

Round 24
Le Havre vs Paris FC 1:0
Odds: 2.45
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 25
Pau FC vs Paris FC 1:1
Odds: 2.05
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

---

Sochaux

Round 1
Auxerre vs Sochaux 0:2
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$12.00

Round 2
Sochaux vs Troyes 2:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 3
Toulouse vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 4
Sochaux vs Rodez 2:2
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: +$34.80

Round 5
AC Ajaccio vs Sochaux 1:1
Odds: 3.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 6
Sochaux vs Chambly 3:2
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 7
Valenciennes vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 2.37
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 8
Sochaux vs Amiens 0:2
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: -$24.00

Round 9
Guingamp: Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 4.20
Stake: $48.00
Profit/Loss: -$48.00

Round 10
Sochaux vs Niort 3:4
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $96.00
Profit/Loss: -$96.00

Round 11
Chateauroux vs Sochaux 2:1
Odds: 2.50
Stake: $192.00
Profit/Loss: -$192.00

Round 12
Sochaux vs Le Havre 4:0
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $384.00
Profit/Loss: -$384.00

Round 13
Played against Paris FC

Round 14
Sochaux vs Nancy 1:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $768.00
Profit/Loss: +$2,227.20

Round 15
Pau FC vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 2.55
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 16
Sochaux vs Grenoble 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$18.00

Round 17
Caen vs Sochaux 1:4
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$9.30

Round 18
Sochaux vs Dunkerque 1:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 19
Sochaux vs Clermont 0:0
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$17.22

Round 20
Troyes vs Sochaux 2:1
Odds: 4.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 21
Sochaux vs Toulouse 0:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 22
Rodez vs Sochaux 1:1
Odds: 2.50
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 23
Sochaux vs AC Ajaccio 0:2
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: -$24.00

Round 24
Chambly vs Sochaux 1:4
Odds: 2.15
Stake: $48.00
Profit/Loss: +$103.20

Round 25
Sochaux vs Valenciennes 2:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

---

Nijmegen

Round 1
Cambuur vs Nijmegen 2:0
Odds: 6.50
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
FC Volendam vs Nijmegen 1:3
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$19.50

Round 3
Nijmegen vs Jong Ajax 2:1
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 4
Nijmegen vs Almere 0:1
Odds: 3.75
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 5
Graafschap vs Nijmegen 2:0
Odds: 4.33
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 6
Nijmegen vs Eindhoven 6:0
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: -$24.00

Round 7
Jong PSV vs Nijmegen 1:1
Odds: 1.57
Stake: $48.00
Profit/Loss: -$48.00

Round 8
Jong Utrecht vs Nijmegen 1:4
Odds: 1.90
Stake: $96.00
Profit/Loss: +$182.40

Round 9
Nijmegen vs G.A. Eagles 2:1
Odds: 1.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 10
Breda vs Nijmegen 0:1
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$24.00

Round 11
Nijmegen vs Helmond 2:2
Odds: 4.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$14.25

Round 12
Jong AZ vs Nijmegen 0:3
Odds: 2.30
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$6.90

Round 13
Played against Roda 1:1

Round 14
Nijmegen vs Maastricht 2:1
Odds: 6.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 15
Den Bosch vs Nijmegen 2:2
Odds: 1.60
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 16
Dordrecht vs Nijmegen 1:2
Odds: 1.40
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: +$16.80

Round 17
Nijmegen vs FC Oss 0:1
Odds: 4.50
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 18
Telstar vs Nijmegen 5:2
Odds: 1.95
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 19
Nijmegen vs Excelsior 3:2
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 20
Nijmegen vs Cambuur 0:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: +$81.60

Round 21
Eindhoven vs Nijmegen 0:1
Odds: 2.25
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$6.75

Round 22
Nijmegen vs Jong Utrecht 2:0
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 23
Maastricht vs Nijmegen 2:1
Odds: 1.61
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

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Roda

Round 1
Jong Ajax vs Roda 0:4
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$12.00

Round 2
Roda vs FC Oss 3:0
Odds: 4.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 3
Graafschap vs Roda 4:0
Odds: 5.00
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 4
Roda vs Dordrecht 4:0
Odds: 5.50
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 5
Eindhoven vs Roda 3:3
Odds: 1.95
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: -$24.00

Round 6
Roda vs FC Volendam 1:1
Odds: 3.75
Stake: $48.00
Profit/Loss: +$180.00

Round 7
Almere vs Roda 2:1
Odds: 3.50
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 8
Roda vs Telstar 1:1
Odds: 3.80
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$22.80

Round 9
Cambuur vs Roda 3:0
Odds: 8.50
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 10
Roda vs Den Bosch 0:0
Odds: 4.50
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$27.00

Round 11
Jong Utrecht vs Roda 2:0
Odds: 2.37
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 12
Roda vs Maastricht 2:0
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 13
Played against Nijmegen

Round 14
Roda vs Excelsior 3:1
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 15
Jong PSV vs Roda 1:1
Odds: 1.95
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: -$24.00

Round 16
Roda vs Helmond 2:2
Odds: 3.80
Stake: $48.00
Profit/Loss: +$182.40

Round 17
Roda vs G.A. Eagles 0:3
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 18
Jong AZ vs Roda 0:1
Odds: 1.85
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$11.10

Round 19
Breda vs Roda 2:2
Odds: 4.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 20
Roda vs Graafschap 1:3
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: -$6.00

Round 21
Roda vs Jong Utrecht 2:1
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $12.00
Profit/Loss: -$12.00

Round 22
Dordrecht vs Roda 0:5
Odds: 1.60
Stake: $24.00
Profit/Loss: +$38.40

Round 23
Roda vs Jong PSV 5:1
Odds: 3.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 24
Excelsior vs Roda 1:3
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $6.00
Profit/Loss: +$17.22

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This is an experiment of what would happen if I followed a specific system in my sports gambling. I haven’t tried it out in practice or used it with real money bets. I wanted to see how profitable it could be to select a few teams and gamble on the same outcomes for those teams every time.

My choice fell on 2 teams from the French Ligue 2 and 2 from the Dutch Eerste Divisie. All teams play in the second divisions of their respective leagues.

The selected teams:

•   Paris FC
•   Sochaux
•   Nijmegen
•   Roda

Why these teams and leagues?

I wanted to perform the experiment with relatively well-positioned teams on the table but not positioned too high to always be considered favourites. The teams need to win enough matches in a league season but not be top of their leagues. Otherwise, the odds wouldn’t be favourable.

I selected teams positioned in the 6th and 7th place in their leagues when this experiment began. You can see from the screenshots below how the league tables looked a few days ago.




I choose these two leagues because there are often surprises. Many unexpected results and the favourites don’t always win.

The betting system

The rules are very simple:

•   Every time the selected teams play at home, I bet on a draw (X).
•   When they play away, I bet on an away win (2).
•   If the selection losses, I double the stakes for their next match. I continue to double the stakes until the team wins.
•   If the team wins, the cycle restarts and I bet the initial stake amount.
•   When two teams from the same leagues play against each other, I skip that match, and I don’t bet.

Why these selections?

Because of the odds. This betting system is nothing new, and it’s known as the Martingale system. We need odds of 2.00 or higher to be profitable. Betting on draws and away wins usually have higher odds compared to home wins. Especially if the teams aren’t league favourites (that’s why I choose teams from the upper part of the league tables).

Are there any risks with this system?

Of course, there are. You need a lot of money to buy yourself out of trouble every time your teams lose. You may experience 5 or 10 losses in a row. There are no guarantees you will win – it’s all based on luck, after all.

Another risk is that sportsbooks can ban or limit your account if they notice known gambling patterns. You should also check if using known betting systems is legal and allowed according to your bookies TOS. I don’t know if bookie’s do that and how often.

You need to consider if the sportsbook you are using has a maximum betting limit for that particular league you have selected. Maybe your bookie allows no bets above $100 for these leagues or any other league you decide to try it on. In that case, you will run into problems if you need to double your bet from $100 to $200.

How I choose to bet, and what profit/losses did I make?

-   My initial stake was $3.
-   I have compiled a list with all my teams' results for the entire 2020/2021 season.
-   A profit/loss count is found after each round. The odds were taken from a local live score https://www.rezultati.com/. I think they use bet365 as a reference for their odds. The good thing is that the odds on crypto bookies are higher than on bet365 and many other fiat bookies.
-   All posted odds were taken from rezultati.com for the X or 2 betting selection, respectively.
-   All results were taken from that site and compared with official stats at https://keukenkampioendivisie.nl/ and https://www.ligue2.fr/. 

You can see the results and the overall profits of how it could have looked if I actually placed these bets in the next post.


THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE, AND SHOULDN’T BE CONSIDERED AS SUCH!
THIS IS WRITTEN FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY!