My Journey: Can I Win Gambling? - page 3.

tjh11

sr. member

Activity: 254

Merit: 250

Quote from: CryForMeSky on May 09, 2015, 01:26:57 PM

Quote from: Bralex on May 09, 2015, 03:31:12 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on May 09, 2015, 03:28:28 AM

Quote

I understand the negative EV thing, but I really do think that discipline and controlling your emotions can help you come out ahead in the long run.

No, you dont.

Anyone want to side bet on how long it will take for OP to get broke in his journey?

If you give me a time scale you think he will go broke, I will bet against as a long shot?

Well there's two factors...the math and the mentality. If he truly has a .4BTC bankroll and is only risking .01BTC max per session, it's going to take a long time to bust. Even if he's betting many times his deposit with a martingale based system, his projected loss per session is still pretty tiny...assuming he's super disciplined, it would take him ~800 days to go bust (mathematically). So any time frame under three years would be basically betting on if he starts tilting after a couple losses and punts his entire bankroll and/or gets fed up with the whole thing and just leaves. If I were to set a fair line, it would probably be in the 18 month range, if we assume everything he says (about bankroll, how much he puts on, and the goal of staying disciplined) has been true AND if "he quits without busting" counts as a win for the "bust" bettors.

That would actually be pretty cool if my supporters and doubters could bet on whether or not I'll go bust. I'd be willing to cooperate, and help set some rules, if you'd like. And we could get escrow involved as well.

tjh11

sr. member

Activity: 254

Merit: 250

Quote from: vendetahome on May 09, 2015, 12:17:37 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on May 09, 2015, 11:41:56 AM

Quote from: Bralex on May 09, 2015, 11:02:54 AM

Doesn't look like he is as confident as he first made out offering a side bet. Maybe just wanted to post to get paid a few extra satoshi because I accepted with in reason and just needed an amount, he came on replied to someone so bollox to him. He is annoyed because after months of being a so called self claimed 'professional' tipster he is only up a few bitcoin, worse than minimum wage in a 3rd world country.

I am actually up more than 60 units after ~4 months, which translates to more than 2.5x bankroll growth with a near zero risk of going broke. I am not sure where you were you getting the amount i made in btc because they only slips i posted were the parlays for 75x-600x odds that i was doing just as a bonus.

So there is no real need to spread the misinformation here, even though you are butthurt for some reason (not sure why).

The unfortunate thing for you is that stats dont lie, and i have stats of 55 unit profit after ~1000 picks, which is a very solid record unless you are just a retard who is swimming in delusions about sport betting. So i am not really just a 'self claimed' professional, i am backed up by a decent sample size of stats.

Cornerning the side bet - its obviosly just a joke. You need to be insane to think that anyone would consider betting on it, since OP's bankroll is just pennies - it can be easily manipulated. Plus its overall would be near impossible to track and confirm.

And to the OP - good luck in your journey of beating dice with martingale and 'discipline'. I was only trying to give you the cold shower of reality and math, but you are clearly not interested in that.

why you want to make him stop believing in himself? im pretty sure hes giving his best to beat dice, what no one have done yet, maybe one day he will make several casinos go broke

Thanks for your support! He's not making me stop believing in myself, though. I plan on slowly beating the casinos.

CryForMeSky

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 103

Quote from: Bralex on May 09, 2015, 03:31:12 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on May 09, 2015, 03:28:28 AM

Quote

I understand the negative EV thing, but I really do think that discipline and controlling your emotions can help you come out ahead in the long run.

No, you dont.

Anyone want to side bet on how long it will take for OP to get broke in his journey?

If you give me a time scale you think he will go broke, I will bet against as a long shot?

Well there's two factors...the math and the mentality. If he truly has a .4BTC bankroll and is only risking .01BTC max per session, it's going to take a long time to bust. Even if he's betting many times his deposit with a martingale based system, his projected loss per session is still pretty tiny...assuming he's super disciplined, it would take him ~800 days to go bust (mathematically). So any time frame under three years would be basically betting on if he starts tilting after a couple losses and punts his entire bankroll and/or gets fed up with the whole thing and just leaves. If I were to set a fair line, it would probably be in the 18 month range, if we assume everything he says (about bankroll, how much he puts on, and the goal of staying disciplined) has been true AND if "he quits without busting" counts as a win for the "bust" bettors.

josephno1

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

Get Free Mobile Data http://get.kickbit.com/1/oexq

I have always felt that betting on sports is the easiest way to make money if you are in to like basketball. For example I made .1 BTC last year from winning a bet that the Spurs would beat the Heat.

vendetahome

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Quote from: magicmexican on May 09, 2015, 11:41:56 AM

Quote from: Bralex on May 09, 2015, 11:02:54 AM

Doesn't look like he is as confident as he first made out offering a side bet. Maybe just wanted to post to get paid a few extra satoshi because I accepted with in reason and just needed an amount, he came on replied to someone so bollox to him. He is annoyed because after months of being a so called self claimed 'professional' tipster he is only up a few bitcoin, worse than minimum wage in a 3rd world country.

I am actually up more than 60 units after ~4 months, which translates to more than 2.5x bankroll growth with a near zero risk of going broke. I am not sure where you were you getting the amount i made in btc because they only slips i posted were the parlays for 75x-600x odds that i was doing just as a bonus.

So there is no real need to spread the misinformation here, even though you are butthurt for some reason (not sure why).

The unfortunate thing for you is that stats dont lie, and i have stats of 55 unit profit after ~1000 picks, which is a very solid record unless you are just a retard who is swimming in delusions about sport betting. So i am not really just a 'self claimed' professional, i am backed up by a decent sample size of stats.

Cornerning the side bet - its obviosly just a joke. You need to be insane to think that anyone would consider betting on it, since OP's bankroll is just pennies - it can be easily manipulated. Plus its overall would be near impossible to track and confirm.

And to the OP - good luck in your journey of beating dice with martingale and 'discipline'. I was only trying to give you the cold shower of reality and math, but you are clearly not interested in that.

why you want to make him stop believing in himself? im pretty sure hes giving his best to beat dice, what no one have done yet, maybe one day he will make several casinos go broke

tjh11

sr. member

Activity: 254

Merit: 250

Quote from: magicmexican on May 09, 2015, 11:41:56 AM

Quote from: Bralex on May 09, 2015, 11:02:54 AM

Doesn't look like he is as confident as he first made out offering a side bet. Maybe just wanted to post to get paid a few extra satoshi because I accepted with in reason and just needed an amount, he came on replied to someone so bollox to him. He is annoyed because after months of being a so called self claimed 'professional' tipster he is only up a few bitcoin, worse than minimum wage in a 3rd world country.

I am actually up more than 60 units after ~4 months, which translates to more than 2.5x bankroll growth with a near zero risk of going broke. I am not sure where you were you getting the amount i made in btc because they only slips i posted were the parlays for 75x-600x odds that i was doing just as a bonus.

So there is no real need to spread the misinformation here, even though you are butthurt for some reason (not sure why).

The unfortunate thing for you is that stats dont lie, and i have stats of 55 unit profit after ~1000 picks, which is a very solid record unless you are just a retard who is swimming in delusions about sport betting. So i am not really just a 'self claimed' professional, i am backed up by a decent sample size of stats.

Cornerning the side bet - its obviosly just a joke. You need to be insane to think that anyone would consider betting on it, since OP's bankroll is just pennies - it can be easily manipulated. Plus its overall would be near impossible to track and confirm.

And to the OP - good luck in your journey of beating dice with martingale and 'discipline'. I was only trying to give you the cold shower of reality and math, but you are clearly not interested in that.

Alright, you can continue doing your "e-sport" picks, and we'll see how you do. Let me do my thing, and hop off this thread.

magicmexican

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Bralex on May 09, 2015, 11:02:54 AM

Doesn't look like he is as confident as he first made out offering a side bet. Maybe just wanted to post to get paid a few extra satoshi because I accepted with in reason and just needed an amount, he came on replied to someone so bollox to him. He is annoyed because after months of being a so called self claimed 'professional' tipster he is only up a few bitcoin, worse than minimum wage in a 3rd world country.

I am actually up more than 60 units after ~4 months, which translates to more than 2.5x bankroll growth with a near zero risk of going broke. I am not sure where you were you getting the amount i made in btc because they only slips i posted were the parlays for 75x-600x odds that i was doing just as a bonus.

So there is no real need to spread the misinformation here, even though you are butthurt for some reason (not sure why).

The unfortunate thing for you is that stats dont lie, and i have stats of 55 unit profit after ~1000 picks, which is a very solid record unless you are just a retard who is swimming in delusions about sport betting. So i am not really just a 'self claimed' professional, i am backed up by a decent sample size of stats.

Cornerning the side bet - its obviosly just a joke. You need to be insane to think that anyone would consider betting on it, since OP's bankroll is just pennies - it can be easily manipulated. Plus its overall would be near impossible to track and confirm.

And to the OP - good luck in your journey of beating dice with martingale and 'discipline'. I was only trying to give you the cold shower of reality and math, but you are clearly not interested in that.

tjh11

sr. member

Activity: 254

Merit: 250

Quote from: Bralex on May 09, 2015, 11:02:54 AM

Quote from: tjh11 on May 09, 2015, 08:14:59 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on May 09, 2015, 03:28:28 AM

Quote

I understand the negative EV thing, but I really do think that discipline and controlling your emotions can help you come out ahead in the long run.

No, you dont.

Anyone want to side bet on how long it will take for OP to get broke in his journey?

If you're just going to get on here and hate, get off. You don't have to be annoyed that someone is trying to get ahead of the casinos.

Doesn't look like he is as confident as he first made out offering a side bet. Maybe just wanted to post to get paid a few extra satoshi because I accepted with in reason and just needed an amount, he came on replied to someone so bollox to him. He is annoyed because after months of being a so called self claimed 'professional' tipster he is only up a few bitcoin, worse than minimum wage in a 3rd world country.

Hey man, I appreciate your support! I agree, he probably wanted to post to get a little bit of BTC from his signature campaign. It's such a pain when people have to put their worthless opinion in just to get a little bit of satoshi.

Anyway, we'll see if I can get more profit than his picks lol

Bralex

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 250

Quote from: tjh11 on May 09, 2015, 08:14:59 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on May 09, 2015, 03:28:28 AM

Quote

I understand the negative EV thing, but I really do think that discipline and controlling your emotions can help you come out ahead in the long run.

No, you dont.

Anyone want to side bet on how long it will take for OP to get broke in his journey?

If you're just going to get on here and hate, get off. You don't have to be annoyed that someone is trying to get ahead of the casinos.

Doesn't look like he is as confident as he first made out offering a side bet. Maybe just wanted to post to get paid a few extra satoshi because I accepted with in reason and just needed an amount, he came on replied to someone so bollox to him. He is annoyed because after months of being a so called self claimed 'professional' tipster he is only up a few bitcoin, worse than minimum wage in a 3rd world country.

nizamcc

legendary

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1007

Quote from: shanem on May 09, 2015, 09:50:01 AM

Quote from: nizamcc on May 09, 2015, 01:17:30 AM

You should definitely check out some great tipsters out there giving some free tips, follow them and profit.
Check the Gambling section of the forum itself and you will find many good tipsters that you might want to try out.

You are right.
Sportsbook gambling can be profitable if you 'spot' some trend.
Dice gambling is based on luck.

Not just limited to that, but at sites like Directbet.eu, you can even bet on Sports with best odds available till last minute during live matches, which gives you a chance on earning some very good %s on completely predictable matches which you can't get from dice, as dice needs luck.

shanem

legendary

Activity: 1344

Merit: 1000

Quote from: nizamcc on May 09, 2015, 01:17:30 AM

You should definitely check out some great tipsters out there giving some free tips, follow them and profit.
Check the Gambling section of the forum itself and you will find many good tipsters that you might want to try out.

You are right.
Sportsbook gambling can be profitable if you 'spot' some trend.
Dice gambling is based on luck.

tjh11

sr. member

Activity: 254

Merit: 250

Okay, I just finished up today's session at safedice.com. I started with an initial deposit of 0.005 BTC, and after a winning martingale (same as yesterday, you double your bet on a win, not a loss) I ended with 0.0108225 BTC after Blockchain fees. That's a profit of 0.0058225 BTC, more than double my initial deposit.

I don't plan on doubling my deposit when I go into a session, so to be safer, I will continue shooting for a 10%-20% return on my initial deposit each session.

Thanks everyone!

tjh11

sr. member

Activity: 254

Merit: 250

Quote from: Bralex on May 09, 2015, 03:31:12 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on May 09, 2015, 03:28:28 AM

Quote

I understand the negative EV thing, but I really do think that discipline and controlling your emotions can help you come out ahead in the long run.

No, you dont.

Anyone want to side bet on how long it will take for OP to get broke in his journey?

If you give me a time scale you think he will go broke, I will bet against as a long shot?

Go ahead. I would love to see magicmexican lose his money.

tjh11

sr. member

Activity: 254

Merit: 250

Quote from: magicmexican on May 09, 2015, 03:28:28 AM

Quote

I understand the negative EV thing, but I really do think that discipline and controlling your emotions can help you come out ahead in the long run.

No, you dont.

Anyone want to side bet on how long it will take for OP to get broke in his journey?

If you're just going to get on here and hate, get off. You don't have to be annoyed that someone is trying to get ahead of the casinos.

tjh11

sr. member

Activity: 254

Merit: 250

Quote from: Light on May 09, 2015, 03:57:28 AM

Quote from: tjh11 on May 09, 2015, 03:05:43 AM

As for bitcoin dice sites letting new players win at first, I think it does happen with the majority of them, but it's more complicated then just making a new account, winning a little bit, and then leaving, and repeating later. It depends on a bunch of things, such as how the site is doing profit-wise. I'm sure there are also a lot of things going on in the backend of these dice sites that we don't know about.

The thing is most dice sites are provably fair which means that they enable you to mathematically make sure the end result is not actually tampered with. This is good because it makes sure the house doesn't cheat by changing the results, but it also nullifies your idea as the hashes for the results would not match. It might be true if you are dicing on one of those random shady dice sites that don't have a provably fair system in place.

I'm looking into the provably fair thing now. I'm going to do some research on it, because there are so many people saying its legitimate. I'll get back to you in a week or so with what I think.

GannickusX

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 500

Quote from: magicmexican on May 09, 2015, 04:22:49 AM

Quote from: Light on May 09, 2015, 03:57:28 AM

Quote from: tjh11 on May 09, 2015, 03:05:43 AM

As for bitcoin dice sites letting new players win at first, I think it does happen with the majority of them, but it's more complicated then just making a new account, winning a little bit, and then leaving, and repeating later. It depends on a bunch of things, such as how the site is doing profit-wise. I'm sure there are also a lot of things going on in the backend of these dice sites that we don't know about.

The thing is most dice sites are provably fair which means that they enable you to mathematically make sure the end result is not actually tampered with. This is good because it makes sure the house doesn't cheat by changing the results, but it also nullifies your idea as the hashes for the results would not match. It might be true if you are dicing on one of those random shady dice sites that don't have a provably fair system in place.

You are trying to reason with someone who thinks he can beat dice in the longterm by being "disciplined"

Well one thing is true that some dice sites could be cheating because if you are not verifying every roll you cant be sure that the rolls you are not verifying are fair like it happened with 999dice

magicmexican

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Light on May 09, 2015, 03:57:28 AM

Quote from: tjh11 on May 09, 2015, 03:05:43 AM

As for bitcoin dice sites letting new players win at first, I think it does happen with the majority of them, but it's more complicated then just making a new account, winning a little bit, and then leaving, and repeating later. It depends on a bunch of things, such as how the site is doing profit-wise. I'm sure there are also a lot of things going on in the backend of these dice sites that we don't know about.

The thing is most dice sites are provably fair which means that they enable you to mathematically make sure the end result is not actually tampered with. This is good because it makes sure the house doesn't cheat by changing the results, but it also nullifies your idea as the hashes for the results would not match. It might be true if you are dicing on one of those random shady dice sites that don't have a provably fair system in place.

You are trying to reason with someone who thinks he can beat dice in the longterm by being "disciplined"

Light

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 502

Circa 2010

Quote from: tjh11 on May 09, 2015, 03:05:43 AM

As for bitcoin dice sites letting new players win at first, I think it does happen with the majority of them, but it's more complicated then just making a new account, winning a little bit, and then leaving, and repeating later. It depends on a bunch of things, such as how the site is doing profit-wise. I'm sure there are also a lot of things going on in the backend of these dice sites that we don't know about.

The thing is most dice sites are provably fair which means that they enable you to mathematically make sure the end result is not actually tampered with. This is good because it makes sure the house doesn't cheat by changing the results, but it also nullifies your idea as the hashes for the results would not match. It might be true if you are dicing on one of those random shady dice sites that don't have a provably fair system in place.

Bralex

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 250

Quote from: magicmexican on May 09, 2015, 03:28:28 AM

Quote

I understand the negative EV thing, but I really do think that discipline and controlling your emotions can help you come out ahead in the long run.

No, you dont.

Anyone want to side bet on how long it will take for OP to get broke in his journey?

If you give me a time scale you think he will go broke, I will bet against as a long shot?

magicmexican

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 1000

Quote

I understand the negative EV thing, but I really do think that discipline and controlling your emotions can help you come out ahead in the long run.

No, you dont.

Anyone want to side bet on how long it will take for OP to get broke in his journey?

Topic: My Journey: Can I Win Gambling? - page 3. (Read 5348 times)