But for every 49 people who show up, win $5, and leave, there are 51 people who show up and lose $5. Casinos don't go broke by people betting on -ev spots. Likewise, a person who goes in once a day and bets $5 and leaves will eventually lose all of their money.
I understand that for every 49 people who win, there are 51 who don't. But I think you're missing my point. At one point or another, chances are at least a few of those 51 people who lost were up. If they had walked away when they were ahead, the casinos would be out of business.
I get that there is math involved in this, all the games are -ev, etc etc…however, I don't know how you can argue that the casinos would still be in business if everyone who walked through their doors left when they were up.
Keep in mind that not everyone who goes into a casino goes in everyday, week, month or year. In fact, a lot of people who go into casinos only go a few times in their life, so if they only plan on winning $5 or $10, they could easily come out ahead in their lifetime.
But forget about all the folks who don't walk away when they're up, this is MY journey, and I'm going to be disciplined and walk away when I'm up. All I ask from you is that you continue watching this thread, and see how I do.
Of course there is math involved. It's very easy math to do. Let's say the odds are 50/50, and everyone bets $5 and leaves when they are up. After one iteration, half the people will be down $5 and the other half will be up $5. Let's say the people who are down now bet $10. Half will win and half will lose, so overall 75% of the people are now up $5 and 25% of the people are down $15. Let's now say that the people who are down bet $20. Now 87.5% of the people overall are up $5 and 12.5% are down $35. Ect ect. It'll always be breakeven. Now of course because of rake/vig/house edge, you know that the odds are not 50/50 but slightly worse for the player. So the house wins. Of course you can replicate this will any "betting method" you'd like, constant flat bets of $5, alternating bets, scale up/scale down, it'll always work out the same. In a breakeven game the house will always break even and in a -ev game, the house will always win.
Now, if you are saying "if people don't bet in a casino then the casino will go out of business" then of course that's correct because there would be no revenue, not because there would be magical losses. You could say that about any business. If nobody shopped at a store then that store would go out of business.
Anyway, I don't mean to hate on you or anything like that, it just seems like you have some delusions on how gambling works. Personally, I love gambling and don't mind throwing some money away from time to time because it's a lot of fun for me. If you are find with losing whats in your bankroll and are just hoping that you hit some positive short term variance and go on a run, that's awesome and I honestly hope you do. But if you honestly think that there is a magic method for turning a -ev situation into a +ev one or that by betting slowly you'll reverse the math or something, you may want to reevaluate that.
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I appreciate your support, but I think I've said plenty of times that I definitely do not think there is some magical method to turn a -ev situation into a +ev situation. I'm more focused on discipline then on any betting strategy, like a progression.
As for the math, I get where you are coming from, I really do, but I do feel like casinos would be out of business if everyone who went in walked away when they were up. I guess we can agree to disagree on that point.
Thanks again for taking the time to comment on this thread, and letting me know your thoughts. And again, I appreciate you letting me know you're not hating, because as you can imagine, there will be plenty of mathematicians coming on this thread and scolding me for daring to try and come out ahead of the casinos. (There already have been some)
One last point: As I've thought about it more, I think that the only way I could get to a +ev situation gambling on bitcoin casinos is somehow taking advantage of them letting me win at first. Because I am very confident that most bitcoin casinos, especially dice sites, let new players win at first.
