Well...my opinion is probably as biased as yours as I like and root for Dame and CJ.
OKC:
OKC had a grand total of 2 and a half good/decent quarters out of those 4 games where they outplayed Portland. Not much.
They shot terribly from 3 in those two away games respectively 15% and 17%, if you can't shoot the 3, forget about winning.
Russ is on the verge of losing for third straight year in the first round following KD's departure.
I don't particularly trust him in elimination games either, he is way too emotional and will force a bunch of bad shots. (I.e last year vs. Jazz)
PG13 is playing with a bad shoulder, I'm sure that is obvious for everyone. If your two best players are underperforming, nothing good will come out of it. I don't see Grant or Ferguson or anyone else for that matter have a monster game.
POR:
Dame and CJ are both playing great in these series, even if one is having a bad quarter/half the other one steps in and carries the team. They both have exploded for +15pts in a quarter. I also like what Aminu and Harkless are doing on the defensive end against PG13.
Conclusion:
I expect multiple flagrant fouls, possibly ejections and Blazers covering the -4 spread. (If I'm not mistaken bookies valued first two home games at -2.5 and now is -4, that is almost 2x and I don't think they are trying to trick us, but rather objectively pointing out which team is better).