so it could hypothetically pop up on launch day between $20 to $40 million (#4 to #6 on coinmarketcap) and everyone would be thinking "what the heck, who are these guys and how did they enter the top 5 so quickly". It may even trigger an aurora styled buying frenzy.
Or glut in supply drives price per share down .
This would certainly be my preference. I think part of the price is because of artificial scarcity because there is limited supply on the exchange. We haven't seen the introduction of 75% more supply in an instant. Remember the early days of the AE on NXT and the dumpers did their dumping for a bit and I think things have now consolidated (long term investors cashing out weak hands 2:1). More demand chasing shrinking availability as long term investors hold more coupled with the alpha demonstrating progress will probably set the new bar at a 30K floor. The other 75% of coins will need to shake loose their dumpers first on launch day. My guess is we see a bit of a drop in PPS on launch possibly outweighed slightly by the increase in supply, a small rise in market cap if not a small dip, and a surge once it stabilizes. I think if one were looking to get cheap NEM it is possible that you'd pay slightly less on the open market in the first week than on the auction though not less than today's AE I'd guess.